UFC on ESPN+ 28: Lee vs. Oliveira (March 14, 2020)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ESPN+ 8:00 pm ET
Kevin Lee vs Charles Oliveira
Gilbert Burns vs Demian Maia
Randa Markos vs Amanda Ribas
Damir Hadzovic vs Renato Moicano
Nikita Krylov vs Johnny Walker
David Dvorak vs Bruno Silva

ESPN+ 6:00 pm ET
John Makdessi vs Francisco Trinaldo
Aleksei Kunchenko vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
Enrique Barzola vs Rani Yahya
Jussier Formiga vs Brandon Moreno
Maryna Moroz vs Mayra Bueno Silva
Veronica Macedo vs Bea Malecki

[richie360]

Great card, lots of fights ending before the final bell in this one.

[Wegmine9]

Great card, lots of fights ending before the final bell in this one.

Lee all day

[Pinoy-T-X]

Lee
Ribas
Moicano
Walker

[Hugo de Naranja]

I really like this Main Event

[JIBBBY]

Lee most likely.. He's got better wrestling and does have very good sub defense..

[Unwritten Law]

Love Do Bronx here. 6 straight finishes and currently listed as the underdog at +115 fighting in his hometown, no brainer here. Lee may have switched camps and looks improved, but that kick on Gregor was a lucky shot, IMO.

Do Bronx has a wide variety of submission wins and I like his chances here as his standup gets overlooked and he crushes people with his Muay Thai and goes for the finish or set them up for a submission.

[JIBBBY]

Love Do Bronx here. 6 straight finishes and currently listed as the underdog at +115 fighting in his hometown, no brainer here. Lee may have switched camps and looks improved, but that kick on Gregor was a lucky shot, IMO.

Do Bronx has a wide variety of submission wins and I like his chances here as his standup gets overlooked and he crushes people with his Muay Thai and goes for the finish or set them up for a submission.

If he does win it will probably be by sub.. That prop isn't out yet..

[Thrilla]

Event Background

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_Fight_Night:_Lee_vs._Oliveira

A lightweight bout between former interim UFC Lightweight Championship challenger Kevin Lee and Charles Oliveira has been slated to serve as the event headliner.^[3]

A middleweight bout between Brad Tavares and The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil 3 heavyweight winner Antônio Carlos Júnior was scheduled for the event. However, Tavares was forced to pull out of the fight due to an anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury.^[4] He was replaced by Makhmud Muradov.^[5] In turn, Júnior suffered from an unspecified injury and the bout was cancelled from the event.^[6]

A women's strawweight bout between Paige VanZant and Amanda Ribas was scheduled for the event. However, VanZant was forced to pull out of the fight due to an undisclosed injury. VanZant requested to reschedule the bout one month later, but Ribas decided to remain at the event and Randa Markos stepped in as the replacement.^[7]

A flyweight between Su Mudaerji and Bruno Gustavo da Silva was scheduled at the event. However, due to 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic, Mudaerji was forced to withdraw from the event as he would not travel to prepare for the fight and was replaced by promotional newcomer David Dvořák.^[8]

[Thrilla]

Coronavirus affecting UFC now too ^

Fuk

[JIBBBY]

Will this get cancelled to now? No fighters can travel in now..

This Corona crap sucks!! Sports are done!!

https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/2020/03/coronavirus-ufc-faces-columbus-decision-with-ohio-set-issue-public-gathering-ban

[Sanity Check]

This is that point where people might take notice of their high taxation, low wage and no savings, modern day society being deeply flawed on a fundamental level.

Most living paycheck to paycheck makes any type of crisis far worse than it has to be.

[magpie878]

If he does win it will probably be by sub.. That prop isn't out yet..

PointsBet NJ shows Oliveira by sub as +235.

[JIBBBY]

Well here are your prelim write ups if the event still goes through!! I read the Brazilian President just got Corona so who knows?




125 lbs.: Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Maryna Moroz

Mayra Bueno Silva (6-0) punched her ticket to UFC with a 62-second ninja choke finish of Mayana Souza on “Contender Series: Brazil” then made her Octagon debut less than two months later. There, “Sheetara” handed grappling specialist Gillian Robertson the first submission loss of her career with an armbar off of her back.
This will be her first fight since Sept. 2018.
A 3-1 Octagon start for Maryna Moroz (9-3) — kicked off by a 90-second flying armbar finish of Joanne Calderwood — gave way to a two-fight losing streak at the hands of Carla Esparza and Angela Hill. A broken foot kept her out of action for the next 13 months, after which she returned to the cage with a decision over undefeated Sabina Mazo.
She ends a nearly year-long layoff of her own, as yet another injury scrapped an August date with Poliana Botelho.
I’ll admit to being a little short on data from which to extrapolate — Silva’s short on pre-UFC footage and didn’t get a chance to show much besides her grappling prowess in her debut. Unfortunately, it’s not her jiu-jitsu, but her offensive wrestling that’ll decide the outcome here. Moroz figures to be the stronger striker and is unlikely to throw herself into Silva’s world the way Gillian Robertson did.
Though this prediction lacks concrete evidence behind it, Moroz is the more proven of the two, and her striking skills should be enough to earn her a competitive victory.
Prediction: Moroz via unanimous decision
Related
UFC Brasilia Poster Released For ‘Lee Vs Oliveira’

125 lbs.: Bruno Silva vs. David Dvorak

Bruno Silva (10-4-2) scored a knockout in the opening round of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): “Brazil 4,” only to tap to eventual runner-up Dileno Lopes’ guillotine just 65 seconds into their fight. A 3-1-1 run, including a draw with Casey Kenney, brought “Bulldog” to the Octagon, where he fell to Khalid Taha in his debut in Oct. 2019.
His stoppage wins are split 4/3 between knockouts and submissions.
The Czech Republic’s David Dvorak (17-3) has not tasted defeat in nearly eight years, racking up 13 consecutive stoppage victories on the European scene. “Killa Khroust” has not even seen the third round in that span, dispatching nine of those opponents in five minutes or less.
He steps in for the injured Sumudaerji on a month’s notice.
Dvorak is an excellent signing, a brutal combination puncher with sharp counters and a strong ground game to lean on if things get hairy. Sure, he’s a natural Flyweight, but so is Silva, so size shouldn’t be an issue. He’s definitely the crisper boxer, though Silva’s got the wider kicking arsenal, and his takedown defense looks stout enough to stymie any attempt the Brazilian makes at taking it to the mat.
Outside of intangibles like the short notice and inexperience fighting outside of Europe, this has all the makings of a dominant debut for Dvorak. He catches Silva with a counter right for a brutal finish.
Prediction: Dvorak via first-round technical knockout
Related
Free Fight! Lee Ends Gregor’s Perfect Run With Emphatic KO!

135 lbs.: Veronica Macedo vs. Bea Malecki

Venezuela’s Veronica Macedo (6-3) stumbled out of the UFC gate, dropping three straight over the span of 2.5 years while struggling with injuries. Undeterred, she finally secured her first Octagon victory last August by tapping jiu-jitsu ace Polyana Viana with a 69-second armbar, which also earned her “Performance of the Night.”
She owns two professional wins by submission and one by (technical) knockout.
Malecki represented Team Kelvin Gastelum on TUF 28, where she fell to Team Daniel Cormier’s Leah Letson in the opening round. She ultimately joined UFC one year later, choking out Duda Santana in Stockholm.
She is the taller of the two by six inches and has a 10-inch reach advantage.
The big complicating factor here is size. Malecki is defensively lacking on the feet and comprehensively outclassed on the mat. She’s also a natural Bantamweight fighting a natural Flyweight who’s been physically overpowered before. Getting through nearly one foot of reach is no mean feat, even if the person with that reach has no idea how to use it properly.
What Macedo does have going for her, though, is speed. Malecki is painfully slow, giving Macedo plenty of chances to get inside, and the Venezuelan’s offensive wrestling has looked sharp lately. Macedo drags her to the mat and puts on the squeeze before long.
Prediction: Macedo via first-round submission



125 lbs.: Jussier Formiga vs. Brandon Moreno

A four-fight win streak — capped off by a decision over the red-hot Deiveson Figueiredo — brought Jussier Formiga (23-6) perilously close to the No. 1-ranked contender spot he held early in his career. He wound up falling short against Joseph Benavidez in their rematch, succumbing to a head kick and follow-up punches late in the second (watch highlights).
He’s two inches shorter than “The Assassin Baby” and surrenders three inches of reach.
Brandon Moreno (16-5-1) made his UFC name with an upset submission of Louis Smolka and two subsequent victories, only to find himself released after consecutive losses to Sergio Pettis and Alexandre Pantoja. He claimed the LFA Flyweight title in his first post-Octagon appearance, then returned to draw with top prospect Askar Askarov and take a decision over Kai Kara-France.
He has scored 10 submission wins as a professional.
I have a very bad habit of underestimating Brandon Moreno. If my memory’s correct, I’ve picked against him in every single one of his UFC efforts. I clearly haven’t learned my lesson, as I see this fight going very poorly for him. Formiga boasts some of the best back control in the entire sport and enough wrestling prowess to get to that sort of dominant position against “The Assassin Baby,” who gave up four takedowns against Askarov. Though a beastly scrambler, Moreno will find getting out from underneath the Brazilian a mighty tall ask.
That’s not to say that I see this as a wipeout, of course. That’s because Formiga has improved on the feet, but he’s still a bit fragile, and Moreno packs some sneaky power in those heavy swings of his. After watching Formiga successfully navigate the nightmare of power-punches that is Figueiredo, though, I see him avoiding Moreno’s heavy punches and cruising to victory via ironclad top control.
Prediction: Formiga via unanimous decision
Related
UFC Brasilia Poster Released For ‘Lee Vs Oliveira’

115 lbs.: Amanda Ribas vs. Randa Markos

Amanda Ribas (8-1) first signed with UFC back in 2017, only to run afoul of United States Anti-Doping Agency (USADA) and serve a two-year suspension. She’s made up for lost time in UFC, submitting Emily Whitmire and taking a dominant decision over unbeaten Mackenzie Dern.
She has knocked out and submitted three opponents apiece.
Randa Markos (10-7-1) — the underdog story of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 20 — still has yet to win consecutive fights during her five-year tenure in the Octagon. She’s presently 2-1-1 in her last four, rebounding from a loss to Cláudia Gadelha with a split decision over Ashley Yoder.
She replaces Paige VanZant, who broke her arm in January.
As of this writing, this is the second-most lopsided fight on the card odds-wise, trailing only Renato Moicano vs. Damir Hadzovic. I’m not sure I agree. That’s because Ribas tore Dern to pieces, sure, but Markos is a far more effective striker and more experienced wrestler than the BJJ ace. Ribas has a habit of loading up on her punches, opening the door for Markos’ heavy right hand, and Markos’ entries are going to be a lot harder to counter than Dern’s sloppy efforts.
Unfortunately for “Quiet Storm,” her consistent issues with takedown defense may once again prove her undoing. Ribas’ top control is terrific, and the fact that Markos struggled to get out from underneath Yoder is a bad sign. It’s a lot closer than the lines suggest, but Ribas’ grappling should once again thwart Markos’ hopes of a UFC win streak.
Prediction: Ribas via unanimous decision
Related
VanZant Injured, Bounced From UFC Brasilia

170 lbs.: Elizeu Zaleski vs. Aleksei Kunchenko

From 2015 to 2019, Elizeu Zaleski (21-6) put together one of the most entertaining runs in recent memory, racking up three “Fights of the Night” awards in seven consecutive wins. His streak came to an end last Aug. 2019 at the hands of fellow bruiser Li Jingliang, who put away “Capoeira” in three to earn his own post-fight bonus.
Fourteen of his 17 stoppage wins have come by form of knockout.
Aleksei Kunchenko (20-1) successfully defended the M-1 Welterweight belt four times before joining UFC, where he dispatched faded veterans Thiago Alves and Yushin Okami in successive appearances. “Wolverine” was then set to face fellow mauler Laureano Staropoli, only to drop a decision to late replacement Gilbert Burns instead.
He gives up four inches of height and three inches of reach to the Brazilian.
The main event looks like heaps of fun and Johnny Walker-Nikita Krylov probably has at least one post-fight bonus on lock, but do not sleep on this fight. Zaleski is pure violence and Kunchenko — while not the force of nature he was on the Russian circuit now that he’s in his mid-thirties — can scrap with the best of them. This is shaping up to be 15 minutes of absolute war.
Though it may be some sunk-cost fallacy on my part after hyping Kunchenko up in my “New Blood” piece, I like his chances for the upset. Zaleski’s boxing is the weakest part of his striking, and Kunchenko’s compact combination punching is well-equipped to punish that. And even if “Capoeira” does find the mark with a bomb, we’ve seen Kunchenko battle back from adversity, so it’s unlikely that Zaleski can compensate for his technical shortcomings by overpowering him. In short, “Wolverine” gets back in the win column, edging out Zaleski in a high-octane slugfest.
Prediction: Kunchenko via split decision
Related
Free Fight! Lee Ends Gregor’s Perfect Run With Emphatic KO!

135 lbs.: Rani Yahya vs. Enrique Barzola

Rani Yahya (26-10) — now almost 13 years removed from his World Extreme Cagefighting (WEC) debut — quietly assembled a 7-1 run that featured five submission finishes, including a 91-second heel hook of Luke Sanders in 2018. He couldn’t quite match the pace of prospect Ricky Simon, however, hurting him in the second round but ultimately losing a decision.
He ends a 13-month layoff on Saturday.
Enrique Barzola (16-5-1) opened his UFC career 5-1, the only blemish a bogus split decision against Kyle Bochniak in 2016. He now finds himself just 1-2 in his last three, a split decision over Bobby Moffett sandwiched between losses to Kevin Aguilar and Movsar Evloev.
This will be his Bantamweight debut.
Yahya’s longevity is pretty damn remarkable. Indeed, like Demian Maia, he’s found a way to parlay his grappling credentials into consistent success despite underdeveloped stand up, even if he does fade late with worrying regularity. That’s the big concern here. That’s because Barzola may not be a finisher, but he has a hell of a motor, averaging more than 4.5 takedowns per fight and a healthy number of strikes besides. If Yahya can’t get the early finish, Barzola has the skills to punish him as the fight goes on.
We’ve seen Yahya punish willing grapplers in the past, notably Michinori Tanaka and Matthew Lopez, but those two were far more committed to ground exchanges than Barzola, who’s more inclined to wear people down with repeated takedowns than look to establish top control. Plus, we just saw Barzola do a great job staying out of trouble against a high-end wrestler and scrambler in Movsar Evloev. So long as the cut to Bantamweight doesn’t prove too burdensome, expect Barzola to escape some shaky spots early and take over down the stretch.
Prediction: Barzola via unanimous decision

[JIBBBY]

Looks like the UFC has decided to go through with the event with NO FANS...

https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/2020/03/ufc-on-espn-plus-28-brasilia-brazil-no-fans-coronavirus-pandemic-mma-sports

[JIBBBY]

I'm leaning Demian Maia as the dog. If age hasn't caught up with him yet - He's got better take downs, more well rounded, better top control. His boxing defense is solid. I think he can beat Burns..

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Looks like the UFC has decided to go through with the event with NO FANS...

https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/2020/...mic-mma-sports

hahahahahah, Dana coming through we still got UFC action to bet on

[Demonata]

hahahahahah, Dana coming through we still got UFC action to bet on

Also Donald Trump helped!

[Demonata]

I'm leaning Demian Maia as the dog. If age hasn't caught up with him yet - He's got better take downs, more well rounded, better top control. His boxing defense is solid. I think he can beat Burns..

Jibby. The nub fights tonight! Easy fade like always?

[WolfTicketDealer]

Remember when people thought Johnny Walker was going to be a future champ?

[Demonata]

I doubt this even happens

[Sanity Check]

Remember when people thought Johnny Walker was going to be a future champ?

He said he gave his coach $30,000 to open an MMA gym. Months later, still no gym and lots of drama which was a factor in his loss to Corey Anderson.

He split with his old trainer and is now at tristar.

[209 Life]

Kevin Lee -145 only play for me

[PaperTrail07]

Great Fights-could be most watched event in years!!

Dos Santos -130-speeeeed and skilllls
Barzola -200-chin and activity

The walker fight is very interesting.....krylov is game....over 1.5 and Krylov are my plays....Walker wins it could be quick.....

Olivera by TKO +825
Hadzo by Dec +650
Krylov by Decision +1150

[PaperTrail07]

Never know LOL

$15.00	$4,463.37	Pending	4 Team Parlay
				Pending	3/14/20 4:30pm UFC Fighting 1702 Elizeu Zaleski -130* vs Alexey Kunchenko
				Pending	3/14/20 4:00pm UFC Fighting 1802 Enrique Barzola -200* vs Rani Yahya
				Pending	3/14/20 8:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1037 Oliveira wins by TKO/KO +800* vs Any other result
				Pending	3/14/20 6:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1307 Krylov wins by 3 round decision +1150* vs Not Krylov by 3 round decision

[POTVINSUX]

Never know LOL

$15.00	$4,463.37	Pending	4 Team Parlay
				Pending	3/14/20 4:30pm UFC Fighting 1702 Elizeu Zaleski -130* vs Alexey Kunchenko
				Pending	3/14/20 4:00pm UFC Fighting 1802 Enrique Barzola -200* vs Rani Yahya
				Pending	3/14/20 8:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1037 Oliveira wins by TKO/KO +800* vs Any other result
				Pending	3/14/20 6:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1307 Krylov wins by 3 round decision +1150* vs Not Krylov by 3 round decision

I'm feeling it! BOL & Enjoy PT

[JIBBBY]

I'm trying my old school favorite Demian Maia as the dog. That dude has always been a gamer and still probably has some of the best TD's in the sport.. I think he puts Gilbert Burns on his back every round.. Probably wins by decision..

Pending3/14/20 7:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1107 Maia wins by 3 round decision +260* vs Not Maia by 3 round decision

[JC2008]

Jibbby maybe you should bring back your Maia avatar today one day only for good luck lol.

[JIBBBY]

Jibbby maybe you should bring back your Maia avatar today one day only for good luck lol.

If he wins I just might JC ...

GL to you as well buddy..

[JC2008]

If he wins I just might JC ...

GL to you as well buddy..

Thanks! We're an hour away. So close... Cheers!

[Demonata]

Isnt it like 3 hours away?

[JIBBBY]

Isnt it like 3 hours away?

Starts in 30 minutes.. ESPN +

[JC2008]

Isnt it like 3 hours away?

The very first early prelim...

[Hugo de Naranja]

Picking Bea Malecki UD for the first fight. Putting everything together now

[wlulaxer]

Good luck Hugo