UFC on ESPN+ 26: Felder vs. Hooker (February 22, 2020)

**Unwritten Law** · 02-16-20, 01:25 PM

Early leans:

Paul Felder
Xiaonan Yan
Ben Sosoli
Jake Matthews
Loma Lookboonmee
Takashi Sato

**THE_LOCKSMITH** · 02-18-20, 08:36 AM

**Teem** · 02-19-20, 12:21 PM

Should I bet on Sato, or should I bet on Aguilar?

**Sanity Check** · 02-19-20, 11:09 PM

I'm surprised Angela Hill is favored over Loma Lookboonmee.

She must be working her wrestling with Cat Zingano @ alliance.

Else, odds are tough to explain.

**ReBEL`LiON** · 02-20-20, 02:54 AM

If anyone’s interested I have a podcast on every UFC event. It’s on YouTube and most platforms.

Rent Free MMA Podcast

for all the hardcore MMA betting fans out there. Really good insight.

**JIBBBY** · 02-20-20, 11:35 AM

Prelims - MMA MANIA write up -

125 lbs.: Kai Kara-France vs. Tyson Nam

The early exit for Kai Kara-France (20-8) from The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 24 and subsequent loss to future Demetrious Johnson foe Tatsumitsu Wada didn’t stop him from winning his next five or extending the streak to eight in UFC itself. He tasted defeat for the first time since 2016 in December, losing a decision to Brandon Moreno at UFC 245.
“Don’t Blink” stands three inches shorter than Nam but will have a one-inch reach advantage.
Seven years after his infamous upset knockout of Eduardo Dantas, Tyson Nam (18-10-1) joined UFC as a late-notice replacement for Alex Perez in Mexico City. There would be no repeat of Nam’s career-defining effort, as Pettis outworked his foe en route to a decision victory.
He has won 10 professional bouts by knockout, including a literal last-second head kick finish of former UFC title challenger Ali Bagautinov.
Nam has power, striking technique and enough takedown defense to throw heat without fear. What he doesn’t have is any urgency whatsoever; he’s so hyper-focused on counter-punching that he’ll lose round after round looking for the perfect shot. Against Kara-France, who lands nearly twice as many strikes per minute and hasn’t been knocked out since his third pro fight, that’s not going to cut it.
Between Kara-France’s output and ostensible ability to take it to the mat if needed, Nam isn’t winning this without a knockout. Don’t hold your breath waiting — Kara-France buries him in output and survives what return fire slips through to earn a wide decision.
Prediction: Kara-France via unanimous decision
Related
UFC Auckland Poster Drops For ‘Felder vs Hooker’

115 lbs.: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Angela Hill

Loma Lookboonmee (4-1) — a career Atomweight — made the move to 115 pounds for her UFC debut against Aleksandra Albu. Despite her opponent’s size and strength, Lookboonmee successfully out-struck her to claim a split decision victory that really should have been unanimous.
She’ll give up two inches of height and three inches of reach to Angela Hill (11-7).
Hill’s second UFC run hit a 1-3 skid from 2018-2019 as she fell to Cortney Casey, Randa Markos and Yan Xiaonan. She has since scored two consecutive stoppages, opening a gruesome cut on Ariane Carnelossi and pounding out Hannah Cifers in succession.
This will be her second fight in under 30 days, as she replaces Hannah Goldy on less than three weeks’ notice.
High as I am on Lookboonmee, this is a very solid test for her. Her lack of size for the division will be a perpetual thorn in her side, and Hill is capable enough from the outside to take full advantage of that weakness. That said, Lookboonmee’s prowess in the clinch and surprisingly strong wrestling both look like potent weapons against “Overkill,” especially on short notice.
Hill is more than game enough to slug it out with Lookboonmee and her superior reach could let her box her way to a decision. More likely, though, Lookboonmee keeps her off-balance with double-legs and does enough damage at close range to take the decision.
Prediction: Lookboonmee via unanimous decision
Related
Face Off! Felder Stares Down ‘The Hangman’ In Auckland

170 lbs.: Maki Pitolo vs. Takashi Sato

Maki Pitolo (12-5) was the underdog in his “Contender Series” appearance, but proved the oddsmakers wrong with a 97-second brutalizing of Justin Sumter to earn a contract. He couldn’t muster the same effort against Callan Potter, who out-struck and out-wrestled the Hawaiian on route to a decision victory.
He’ll have two inches of reach on Takashi Sato (15-3).
Sato — whose only loss since 2015 had come against TUF: “Brazil” winner Glaico Franca — enjoyed a triumphant UFC debut, knocking out Ben Saunders early in the second round. Belal Muhammad proved a tougher nut to crack, ultimately tapping Sato out with a rear-naked choke partway through the third round.
Ten of his pro wins, including his last six, have come by form of knockout.
Strike Pitolo’s UFC debut from my memory and I’d pick him in a heartbeat. At his best, he’s a fearsome offensive boxer whose body attack and varying punch speed bring to mind Nick Diaz’s heyday. Unfortunately, I can’t exactly ignore the fact that he struggled on the feet against a chinny, defensively unsound grappler. Even with his technical issues, Sato just hits too damn hard for Pitolo to survive with that kind of performance.
The Pitolo I thought I’d see in the Octagon would torch Sato. The one I did see, though, succumbs to the Japanese veteran’s murderous right hand before he can get anything going.
Prediction: Sato via first-round knockout
Related
UFC Confirms Return To New Zealand In February 2020

125 lbs.: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Shana Dobson

The Octagon debut of Priscila Cachoeira (8-3) opposite Valentina Shevchenko resulted in one of the most one-sided fights in promotional history as Shevchenko put her away with ground-and-pound in the second round. Her subsequent bouts have been less alarming, but no more successful, and she enters the cage this weekend on a three-fight losing streak.
Half of her professional wins have come by form of knockout.
Shana Dobson — the lowest seed on TUF 26 — rebounded from her opening-round loss to Roxanne Modafferi by knocking out teammate Ariel Beck at the Finale. She makes the walk this Saturday on a two-fight losing streak, however, dropping decisions to Lauren Mueller and Sabina Mazo.
She’ll have a four-inch reach advantage on fight night.
I’ve seen far better fighters cut for far less than Cachoeira, who’s shown little besides grit and durability during her three-fight UFC tenure. Dobson’s not a world-beater either, but she’s at least shown some basic boxing fundamentals and power, which is more than I can say for the Brazilian. Dobson can win this at range or in the sort of brawl Cachoeira prefers, and seeing as the latter doesn’t have a Plan B beyond “march forward harder,” that bodes ill for her.
Three losses and a failed drug test weren’t enough to end Cachoeira’s Octagon tenure; maybe four and a failed drug test will do it. Dobson eats her up with power punches to claim a wide decision.
Prediction: Dobson via unanimous decision

155 lbs.: Jalin Turner vs. Joshua Culibao

Jalin Turner’s (8-5) injury finish of Max Mustaki wasn’t enough to get him a contract on “Contender Series,” and though he ended up getting a shot as a late replacement, Vicente Luque gave him a rough welcome. He returned to Lightweight with a 53-second knockout of Callan Potter, but couldn’t do the same to Matt Frevola, losing a decision in Atlanta.
“The Tarantula” has never gone the distance in victory, knocking out seven.
Joshua Culibao’s (8-0) unremarkable amateur run gave way to a fast-rising professional career that’s seen him claim titles in multiple Australian promotions. His last two fights have seen him knock out well-traveled veteran Rodolfo Marques and win the Superfight MMA Featherweight belt with a first-round finish of Josh Payne.
He steps in for Jamie Mullarkey on less than three weeks’ notice.
To my frustration, there isn’t much recent footage of Culibao to sift through, which sucks both because it stymies my analysis and because he’s loads of fun to watch. A patient, pot-shotting striker with impeccable head movement, Culibao has the look of a top prospect at 25 years old. More specifically, a top Featherweight prospect, which is where the issues lie. Turner’s been knocked out before and showed some ugly technical deficiencies against Frevola, but he’s also 6’3” and boasts remarkable power.
Were these two the same size, I’d bite the bullet and pick Culibao despite the dearth of tape. With how rangy Turner is and how dire the consequences of misjudging distance are, though, I saw Turner reverses the roles of his debut and smokes the smaller man.
Prediction: Turner via first-round technical knockout
Related
UFC Auckland Poster Drops For ‘Felder vs Hooker’

170 lbs.: Jake Matthews vs. Emil Meek

Jake Matthews (15-4) — who ended his UFC Lightweight run with a controversial split decision loss to Andrew Holbrook — is 4-1 since his return to 170 pounds. The run includes a “Fight of the Night” decision over Li Jingliang and, most recently, a win over Rostem Akman in “The Celtic Kid’s” native Australia.
He has scored seven submission wins as a professional, five of them via rear-naked choke.
Emil Meek (9-4) punched his ticket to the Octagon with a 45-second mauling of Rousimar Palhares, then continued his odds-defying ways by beating Jordan Mein in his UFC debut. He’s yet to taste victory since, dropping decisions to Kamaru Usman and Bartosz Fabinski.
This will be his first fight in 19 months.
I genuinely don’t like being reductive in my analysis, but come on. Meek’s given up 14 takedowns in his last two fights and Matthews — despite being a former Lightweight — is skilled enough to toss even wrestling-savvy Welterweights around. Meek’s power and tenacity don’t mean much when Matthews can put him on his back essentially at will.
Barring a Palhares-style elbow finish, Meek’s means of stopping Matthews from grinding him into the dirt are few and far between. The more interesting question is how long this lasts. That’s because Matthews is more submission focused than Kamaru Usman or Bartosz Fabinski, so expect him to drag “Valhalla” into Hel with his signature rear-naked choke.
Prediction: Matthews via first-round submission
Related
Face Off! Felder Stares Down ‘The Hangman’ In Auckland

170 lbs.: Callan Potter vs. Kenan Song

Callan Potter’s (18-8) Octagon debut left a bit to be desired, as his short-notice step-up against Jalin Turner resulted in a swift knockout defeat. A return to Welterweight seemed to cure what ailed him, however, as he upset “Contender Series” product Maki Pitolo in Melbourne eight months later.
“The Rockstar” has seen the judges just twice as a professional, scoring 10 submissions and six (technical) knockouts.
Though he joined the world’s largest fight promotion on a loss, Kenan Song (15-5) rewarded UFC’s gamble by smashing Bobby Nash and Hector Aldana in his first two Octagon bouts. He soon hit a stumble in the form of Alex Morono, though he walked away with a “Fight of the Night” bonus and scraped past Derrick Krantz in his next effort.
“The Assassin’s” 13 stoppage wins include seven by form of knockout.
Potter went far above and beyond my expectations against Pitolo, displaying not only his customary grappling prowess but some highly effective standup as well. Still, the 35-year-old looks like he’s in for a rough night. Even if the takedowns are there for “The Rockstar,” Song has shown the ground savvy necessary to stay alive until he can return to the feet, where he hits more than hard enough to punish Potter’s shaky defense.
With zero submission losses to his name and a proven ability to get back to his feet, Song has all the tools necessary to shut down the Aussie’s ground game and bring his heavy hands to bear. He hands Potter the fifth knockout loss of his career partway through the first round.
Prediction: Song via first-round knockout

**Sanity Check** · 02-20-20, 01:40 PM

I feel tempted to fade Kenan Song if he's still training @ Greg Jackson / Mike Winkeljohn

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 02-20-20, 02:45 PM

Really looking forward to this main event, Dan Hooker is one of my favorite fighters to watch.

**turbozed** · 02-21-20, 02:22 AM

Was really liking my Sato -115 ML and O1.5 -140 plays.

Unfortunately, looks like Sato/Pitolo has been cancelled.

**Sanity Check** · 02-21-20, 02:42 PM

Originally posted by turbozed

Unfortunately, looks like Sato/Pitolo has been cancelled.

Doh.

Was on Sato, too.

**Sanity Check** · 02-22-20, 03:18 PM

"The Combat Wombat" Ben Sosoli @ weigh ins.

Just too awesome~

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-22-20, 03:52 PM

UFC on ESPN+ 26: Hooker vs. Felder
Shana Dobson Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Loma Lookboonmee Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Kai Kara-France Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Song Kenan Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Jake Matthews Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Jalin Turner Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Zubaira Tukhugov Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Magomed Mustafaev Round 2 TKO (Doctor Stoppage)
Marcos Rogerio de Lima Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Yan Xiaonan Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Michal Oleksiejczuk Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Dan Hooker Round 1 KO (Knee)

**JC2008** · 02-22-20, 04:11 PM

Wow!

**Sanity Check** · 02-22-20, 04:13 PM

Boom!

Cachoeira found the uppercut JDS was looking for in his fight with Curtis Blaydes.

**Unwritten Law** · 02-22-20, 04:20 PM

Let's go Lookboonmee!

**Sanity Check** · 02-22-20, 04:39 PM

Lookboonmee looking a lot worse than she did in her 1st UFC fight.

Her kickboxing technique regressed noticeably.

**63M1N1** · 02-22-20, 04:56 PM

On Nam next! Lets go

**kcchiefs** · 02-22-20, 04:59 PM

I got France

**Sanity Check** · 02-22-20, 05:08 PM

Tyson Nam might be slowing down.

**kcchiefs** · 02-22-20, 05:45 PM

This may be a good one. I shouldve stayed away but meek is going away I think.

**Unwritten Law** · 02-22-20, 05:51 PM

Got Culibao against Turnver in an upset +185

**kcchiefs** · 02-22-20, 06:13 PM

Who does everyone have in Aguilar fight?

**Demonata** · 02-22-20, 06:28 PM

Originally posted by kcchiefs

Who does everyone have in Aguilar fight?

I have aguikar but I always pick the wrong one on pickems

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-22-20, 06:30 PM

Originally posted by kcchiefs

Who does everyone have in Aguilar fight?

I think the Russian outwrestles him.

**Sanity Check** · 02-22-20, 06:38 PM

Clueless who wins.

Taking Aguilar, only because I like the pride he takes in himself and respect what a gritty competitor he is.

**kcchiefs** · 02-22-20, 06:38 PM

i'm with you light Hugo

**kcchiefs** · 02-22-20, 06:38 PM

Was a tough one for me to cap.

**Demonata** · 02-22-20, 06:58 PM

Ok my last bet is on dan hooker so load up your money and bet on Felder. I couldn't find sand in a desert at this point.

**kcchiefs** · 02-22-20, 08:39 PM

Good ones now

**kcchiefs** · 02-22-20, 08:44 PM

I may be wrong but see Crute as an easy win here.

**kcchiefs** · 02-22-20, 08:52 PM

Freaking dominated the man

**Demonata** · 02-22-20, 08:52 PM

I need dan hooker so damn bad.

**kcchiefs** · 02-22-20, 08:53 PM

Originally posted by Demonata

I need dan hooker so damn bad.

I’m on felder so one of us has to win

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 02-22-20, 08:57 PM

Originally posted by Demonata

I need dan hooker so damn bad.

took Hooker +140 inside the distance