Teixeira made me money when he fought Karl Roberson. Last time I faded Teixeira against Cutelaba and I regretted it. Now I don't know what to do ha.
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Different writer for main card write ups.. X-factor MMA MANIA
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Heavyweight: Todd Duffee vs. Jeff Hughes
Best Win for Duffee? Anthony Hamilton For Hughes? Maurice Greene
Current Streak: Both men have lost their most recent bouts
X-Factor: Duffee’s massive layoff
How these two match up: Heavyweight weirdness is certainly on its way!
In 12 years as a professional fighter, Todd Duffee has fought a total of 12 times. At one point, the 33-year-old had a lot of hype around him, but Duffee is something of a glass cannon inside the cage — each of those 12 bouts has ended by knockout ... for better or worse. The silver lining, at least, is that Duffee remains just 33 years old, which is plenty young at Heavyweight and could mean Duffee could develop a more technical approach.
Ohio’s Jeff Hughes is a very midwest-style Heavyweight and training partner of Stipe Miocic. He’s tough, pushes a reasonably high-pace, and attacks opponents with a strong mix of punches and takedowns.
This is really a match of opposites. Duffee is possibly the least consistent man on the roster, competing rarely and often attempting to simply overwhelm foes with athleticism. Hughes, alternatively, does not have the athleticism of his foe, but his consistent approach has served him well in wearing out foes and slowly taking over fights.
This fight is likely decided in the opening two minutes. If Duffee connects early, Hughes is probably going down, though Duffee does leave himself open to be countered as well. Outside of those opening two minutes, Hughes’ smarter approach should see him land the better shots and perhaps even score a takedown or two.
It’s a coin flip, but I’ll side with the man who’s been actively fighting.
Prediction: Hughes via knockout
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Welterweight: Michel Pereira vs. Tristan Connelly
Best Win for Pereira? Danny Roberts For Connelly? Joey Pierotti
Current Streak: Pereira has won three straight (including his UFC debut), while Connelly rides a four-fight win streak into his UFC debut
X-Factor: Pereira’s love of weird techniques
How these two match up: This will be fun.
Earlier in the year, Pereira won a fight against an outmatched foe that became a viral video, as the Brazilian jumped off the cage and flipped around en route to victory. It was enough for UFC to sign “Demolidor,” who exceeded expectations in his debut with a flying knee and follow up punch KO to prove himself more than a meme.
Connelly stepped up to take this bout on short-notice, and the Canadian usually competes at 155 lbs. Credit to “Boondock,” however, as the nine year pro has won eight of his previous nine bouts and finished each victory. He’s a strong grappler and a solid pick up for UFC.
Unfortunately, this reads like a really bad match up.
It’s difficult to succeed as a grappler when faced with a significant size disadvantage. Connelly is moving up a weight class, and Pereira is a gigantic Welterweight — that’s a bad combination for the Canadian even before the short-notice factor. Connelly does have a chance, as Pereira is known to fatigue himself with all the acrobatics. However, the more likely result is that one of those funky moves crashes into Connelly’s jaw before that happens.
Prediction: Pereira via knockout
Middleweight: Uriah Hall vs. Antonio Carlos Junior
Best Win for Hall? Gegard Mousasi For Carlos Junior? Tim Boetsch
Current Streak: Hall won his last bout, whereas Carlos Junior came up short
X-Factor: Hall’s general inconsistency
How these two match up: This is very much a striker vs. grappler match up, but it’s made more interesting by the habits of both men.
At this point, the strengths and weaknesses of Uriah Hall are rather well-known. The 35-year-old hits insanely hard and has some undoubtedly great technique. His jab is lightning quick, and some of the kicks he fires could probably chop down a tree. At the same time, Hall’s footwork often fails him, as he backs himself into the fence commonly, dropping his hands in the process.
Carlos Junior fits in the classic mold of Middleweight Brazilian jiu-jitsu fighter with all the standard pros and cons. He’s better than most of his peers at securing takedowns and dominating from top position, and even his kickboxing is coming along at a decent pace. However, the ubiquitous flaw of Middleweight Brazilian jiu-jitsu guys is cardio, and gassing out in the middle of the fight has twice cost “Shoeface” the victory at 185 pounds.
Seemingly, the style match up favors Hall. In general, getting wrestled and controlled has not been the reason for his defeats — his takedown defense is good! Plus, while his cardio is not necessarily a major asset, Hall maintains a pace over 15 minutes far better than his opponent.
Hall very well could sprawl-and-brawl his way to a great victory.
At the same time, Carlos Junior knows how he wins fights. He’s going to pressure Hall, and Hall’s back is likely to hit the cage. From that position, I expect the Brazilian to find a way to drag his foe to the mat, as he’s really crafty with his mix of wrestling and jiu-jitsu. Back in 2015, Hall lost an ugly split-decision to a Middleweight jiu-jitsu archetype in Rafael Natal, and I suppose that bout is really my expectation for this one.
Prediction: Carlos Junior via decision
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Light Heavyweight: Misha Cirkunov vs. Jim Crute
Best Win for Cirkunov? Nikita Krylov For Crute? Sam Alvey
Current Streak: Cirkunov last came up short to Johnny Walker, whereas Crute has won 10 straight bouts (two in UFC)
X-Factor: Crute’s youth
How these two match up: Rather similarly.
Cirkunov appeared to be the next big thing at 205 pounds when he scored four-straight stoppage victories to begin his UFC career, but he’s since been knocked out three times in four fights. Despite those losses, Cirkunov is actually a pretty decent kickboxer, those his forte remains takedowns and top position strangulation.
At 23 years of age, Australia’s Jimmy Crute is an excellent prospect. “The Brute” is already fairly well-rounded, though like his opponent, he does prefer to wrestle his way into top position and looking to submit from that point.
This is a real test and major step up for Crute. In two bouts in UFC, he’s been faced with middling competition and handled them as he was supposed to, scoring dominant finishes. For perhaps the first time in his career, Crute is unlikely to have the wrestling/grappling advantage in this match up, but he does seem to have an avenue to victory in the kickboxing realm.
Sticking to a strict kickboxing game plan is a tall task for a young fighter. In all likelihood, Crute will grapple with Cirkunov even if the striking is going well — it’s where he’s most comfortable, and even seasoned fighters revert back to their comfort zones when given the option.
If Crute decides to grapple and actually manages to out-wrestle Cirkunov, he’s already prepared for Top 10 competition. It still seems too early for that though, as Crute may be taking on just a bit too much, too soon.
Prediction: Cirkunov via submission
‘X-Factor’ Picks for 2019: 40-15Comment -
Feel like glover wins easy if he gets the takedown. He will get hurt as always, but he only needs one takedown.
One takedown +115, for a guy who has only lost to top 5s.
Its 60/40 in glovers favour...i mean its no lock. But the line should be -160, and its +115.
Its a bet you potentially look like a genius or an idiot.Comment -
^ You convinced me. I'm takin it.Comment -
Cirkunov looks in really good shape. Smolka also looks much healthier than he normally does.Comment -
Off course, normally he drinks to he gets blackouts. Still a ton of red flags with this guy mentality. But i played him at -110, i wouldnt touch im at -230 or -270 or whatever. Hes bananas, youre combining youre ufc career with being an alcaholic. Guy is stupid as fakk. immature and stupid. But one takedown and the fight is over most likely.Comment -
so inside prop will doComment -
Tempting to bet Crute, but it is a trap bet imo as Cirkunow is better on the ground and Crute probably has the advantage standing as the better striker and significantly better chin. Only gods know how this will end up.
Crute seems also to some extent to be willing to fight wherever the the fight takes him, which i would say is a symptom of an inexperienced fighter. Not long ago we saw him fight very reckless and without a real gameplan. Inexperienced fighters with 10-0 do that, and why shouldnt they? "ive never lost" i guess is something that Crute would have given as an answer if someone critized him. So in his own mind i think he believes he can get away with stuff. UFC will soon teach him a lesson, that you f cant.
Will he come in with a smart gameplan? Will Cirkunov get knocked out? I feel those questions is up in the air.
So...what do you get is 50/50 fight, and the odds suggest to me that the public and the oddsmaker se it as a 50/50 fight.
I agree. Saving it for livebetting. If Crute can stuff takedowns, and win the striking we have a good bet after round 1/1.5 rounds.Comment -
UFC on ESPN+ 16: Cerrone vs. Gaethje
Austin Hubbard Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Louis Smolka Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Jordan Griffin Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Hunter Azure Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Miles Johns Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Augusto Sakai Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Jimmy Crute Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Antonio Carlos Junior Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Michel Pereira Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Jeff Hughes Round 1 KO (Punch)
Glover Teixeira Round 1 Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Donald Cerrone Round 2 TKO (Head Kick and Punches)Comment -
UFC on ESPN+ 16: Cerrone vs. Gaethje
ESPN+ Prelims:
Fight #1: Hubbard vs. Prepolec
No Bet
Fight #2: Smolka vs. MacDonald
Parlays
Fight #3: Griffin vs. Skelly
No Bet
Fight #4: Azure (DEBUT) vs. Katona
Azure Decision (+250) 0.5u
Fight #5: M. Johns (DEBUT) vs. C. Smith
No Bet
Fight #6: Sakai vs. Tybura
No Bet
Main Card:
Fight #7: Crute vs. Cirkunov
Crute+Cirkunov Won’t Start Round 2 (+145) 1u
Fight #8: Carlos Junior vs. U. Hall
Carlos Junior (-170) 2.55u to win 1.5u
Carlos Junior ITD (-105) 1.05u to win 1u
Hedge(s):
U. Hall ITD (+374) 0.25u
U. Hall Round 3 (+1675) 0.25u
Fight #9: Pereira vs. Connelly (DEBUT)
No Bet
Fight #10: Hughes vs. Duffee
Hughes+Duffee Won’t Start Round 2 (+145) 0.5u
Fight #11: Teixeira vs. Krylov
Teixeira (+100) 1u
Teixeira Round 2 (+475) 0.25u
Fight #12: Cerrone vs. Gaethje
Cerrone (+185) 1.75u
Cerrone Decision (+900) 0.25u
Straight Parlays:
None
Prop Parlays:
Smolka/Crute+Cirkunov WGD (-112) 1.12u to win 1u
Carlos Junior+U. Hall WGD/Teixeira+Krylov WGD (+108) 1u
Full Card Props:
None
Multi-Event Parlays:
NoneComment -
On Prepolec - smallComment -
Skelly should be tired after that 1st RoundComment -
lol Azure supposed to be the wrestler not the other way.Comment -
Azure Decision cashes!Comment -
Good decision by the judges to reward damage and not meaningless TDsComment -
Good today's judges don't like cage humping. Azure gets the W.Comment -
Added:
Sakai (-125) 1u to win 0.8u
Sakai Decision (+245) 0.4u
Sakai Round 2 (+750) 0.25u
Sakai Round 3 (+1300) 0.25uComment -
lol Sakai - Tybura +150 for under 2.5 rounds in a HW boutComment -
Sakai finished a bit too early but easy win for himComment -
Thank you Sakai! - needed that oneComment -
Added:
Teixeira+Krylov Under 1.5 (-130) 1.3u to win 1u
Carlos Junior KO/TKO (+900) 0.25u
Carlos Junior+U. Hall Draw (+7500) 0.1uComment -
Was that a Japanese Necktie? Either way cashed my Won't Start Round 2 and Won't Go Distance betsComment -
Sounds like it was a Peruvian Necktie.Comment -
wow so Cirkunov trained by Ray Sefo and Crute trained by Sam Greco.
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