Best bets for UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler 👊
Best bets for UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Colby Covington held the interim title for a time, but that credential, which secured him a visit to the White House, did not last. With Kamaru Usman now the official champ, Covington must earn another shot by getting past former welterweight division champion Robbie Lawler in UFC on ESPN 5 (Prelims scheduled to begin at 12 p.m. ET, followed by main card on ESPN at 3 p.m. ET).
The odds favor Covington to add to the relatively fresh faces near the top of the division. And yet, any longtime MMA fan knows that Lawler fights as if odds and rankings don't matter at all. Can we trust the favorite? Or can Lawler play spoiler to yet another aspiring title contender?
Here's a breakdown of Saturday's showdown in Newark, New Jersey:
Welterweight matchup: No. 2 Colby Covington (-225) vs. No. 11 Robbie Lawler (+185)
Tale Of The Tape
The main takeaway from the tale of the tape is that Covington is indeed relatively new blood at the top of the welterweight division, at least compared to the veteran Lawler. But the six-year age difference is perhaps less important than the fact that the 37-year-old Lawler has more than double the professional MMA fights -- and cumulative damage -- as Covington. Lawler's resiliency and stamina at this point in his career will be the key to this fight.
Covington has the style and skills to apply constant pressure. Lawler has faced solid wrestlers before, with mixed results, and Covington's best path to victory is to keep Lawler moving backward while changing levels. Standing in the pocket with Lawler for too long is not a wise game plan, but Covington knows that.
According to Covington's performance metrics, pressure appears to be his strength. He vastly outpaces opponents while standing and attempts more than double the usual takedowns. He has a smothering style that grinds down opponents, especially once the fight hits the mat.
Lawler will have only his fierce counterpunches to save him. If Covington takes his foot off the accelerator, it will open more opportunities for Lawler. However, to date, Covington seems to indeed have the gas tank and the fight strategy to apply the constant pressure necessary to stifle Lawler's best weapons.
E+ recommends: Covington ML -225
Other fight card value
A young prospect in the lightweight division, Nasrat Haqparast will appear on the homestretch of the main card on ESPN. The German fighter, now fighting out of the Tri Star gym in Montreal under Firas Zahabi, is one to watch. He's priced similarly to Covington and is also a justifiable favorite over Joaquim Silva.
E+ recommends: Nasrat Haqparast ML -250
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Colby Covington held the interim title for a time, but that credential, which secured him a visit to the White House, did not last. With Kamaru Usman now the official champ, Covington must earn another shot by getting past former welterweight division champion Robbie Lawler in UFC on ESPN 5 (Prelims scheduled to begin at 12 p.m. ET, followed by main card on ESPN at 3 p.m. ET).
The odds favor Covington to add to the relatively fresh faces near the top of the division. And yet, any longtime MMA fan knows that Lawler fights as if odds and rankings don't matter at all. Can we trust the favorite? Or can Lawler play spoiler to yet another aspiring title contender?
Here's a breakdown of Saturday's showdown in Newark, New Jersey:
Welterweight matchup: No. 2 Colby Covington (-225) vs. No. 11 Robbie Lawler (+185)
Tale Of The Tape
| Last Fight Weight Class | Welterweight | Middleweight |
| Current Age | 31 | 37 |
| Height | 71.0 | 71.0 |
| Reach | 72.0 | 74.0 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Analyzed Minutes | 128 | 322 |
| Standup striking offense | ||
| Total Knockdown Ratio (Scored : Received) | 1:0 | 12:2 |
| Distance Knockdown Rate | 0.8% | 3.3% |
| Head Jab Accuracy | 25% | 38% |
| Head Power Accuracy | 26% | 34% |
| Total Standup Strike Ratio | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| Striking defense | ||
| Total Head Strike Defense | 71% | 72% |
| Distance Knockdown Defense ("Chin") | 100% | 99% |
| Wrestling and grappling | ||
| TD Attempts per Min Standing/Clinch | 1.20 | 0.09 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 51% | 68% |
| Advances per Takedown/Top Control | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| Opponent Takedown Attempts | 23 | 115 |
| Takedown Defense | 78% | 68% |
| Share of Total Ground Time in Control | 93% | 41% |
| Submission Attempts per Trip to Ground | 0.04 | 0.00 |
Covington has the style and skills to apply constant pressure. Lawler has faced solid wrestlers before, with mixed results, and Covington's best path to victory is to keep Lawler moving backward while changing levels. Standing in the pocket with Lawler for too long is not a wise game plan, but Covington knows that.
According to Covington's performance metrics, pressure appears to be his strength. He vastly outpaces opponents while standing and attempts more than double the usual takedowns. He has a smothering style that grinds down opponents, especially once the fight hits the mat.
Lawler will have only his fierce counterpunches to save him. If Covington takes his foot off the accelerator, it will open more opportunities for Lawler. However, to date, Covington seems to indeed have the gas tank and the fight strategy to apply the constant pressure necessary to stifle Lawler's best weapons.
E+ recommends: Covington ML -225
Other fight card value
A young prospect in the lightweight division, Nasrat Haqparast will appear on the homestretch of the main card on ESPN. The German fighter, now fighting out of the Tri Star gym in Montreal under Firas Zahabi, is one to watch. He's priced similarly to Covington and is also a justifiable favorite over Joaquim Silva.
E+ recommends: Nasrat Haqparast ML -250