UFC on ESPN+ 13: De Randamie vs. Ladd (July 13, 2019)

[PaperTrail07]

Oh if you bet Faber....by rigged dec is his only chance....and it would be disrespectful for Emmett to say anything different.....they cant SAY its a penetrating cash grab lol...

emitt says Uriah is as focused as ever. Who knows with these bullshitters what is really the truth. Uriah might win round one and that is it. Than u have to worry about something remotely close that they give to Uriah. Think i am going to pass but no way i see Uriah winning here unless it is a split nonsense decision.

[Thrilla]

Event Background

A women's bantamweight bout between the inaugural UFC Women's Featherweight Champion Germaine de Randamie and Aspen Ladd is expected to serve as the event headliner.^[3]

The event will also mark the return of former WEC Featherweight Champion, former UFC Bantamweight Championship challenger and 2017 UFC Hall of Fame inductee Urijah Faber who returns to action 30 months after announcing his retirement. He is scheduled to face Ricky Simon in a bantamweight bout.^[4]

A women's strawweight bout between Cynthia Calvillo and former Invicta FC Strawweight Champion Lívia Renata Souza was scheduled for this event. However it was reported on June 7, that Calvillo broke her foot and was forced to pull out of the bout.^[5] Souza is now expected to face fellow former Invicta FC Strawweight Champion Brianna van Buren.^[6]

A middleweight bout between Karl Roberson and John Phillips was scheduled for this event. However on June 14, it was reported that Phillips was pulled from the bout due to injury and he was replaced by promotional newcomer Wellington Turman.^[7]

A bantamweight bout between 2004 Olympic silver medalist in wrestling and former UFC Women's Bantamweight Championship challenger Sara McMann and inaugural UFC Women's Flyweight Champion Nicco Montaño (also The Ultimate Fighter: A New World Champion flyweight winner) was scheduled for this event. However, it was reported on June 19, that McMann pulled out of the bout citing an injury. Montaño is now expected to face The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate bantamweight winner Julianna Peña.^[8]

Martin Day was expected to face Benito Lopez at the event. However on June 24, Day pulled out of the bout due to a knee surgery and was replaced by Vince Morales.^[9]

Gian Villante was expected to face Mike Rodriguez at the event. However, Villante pulled out on July 4 due to undisclosed reasons. He was replaced by promotional newcomer John Allan.^[10]

Beneil Dariush was expected to Drakkar Klose at the event. However on July 7, Dariush pulled out due to an injury.^[11] As a result, UFC officials opted to remove Klose from the card and he is expected to be scheduled for a future event instead.[12]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_Fight_Night:_de_Randamie_vs._Ladd

[Shagdogy]

I feel Fili is smoother on the feet...not as strong but better....

Do you know anything about Turman? It APPEARS he is OK on the ground and that is where Roberson is GARBAGE.....its TKO for Roberson or bust IMO so might as well bet that prop if you like him.....

I agree FDGTD is a better bet than Roberson ML. I watched a few of Turman’s fights and in each one he marched forward, took away space, got to clinch/bodylock and landed the TD. Lateral drop once, inside trip another time... decent variety. Is he as strong as Ferreira or Tiexeira? Don’t know for sure, but probably not. Roberson is a a phsyically strong MW and has shown at least one decent TD in his arsenal himself. The style matchup is favorable to fight ending inside the distance IMO. I think Turman’s game is to march through the distance and get inside and he will either land the TDs and get sub, or will eat a lot of heavy strikes trying and get KO’d unless he has an incredible chin.

The ways it loses is if Turman’s chin is too good or if he has good enough TDs and not good enough subs and just gets top co trip but no finish. He has 7 sub wins though so that’s a good sign.

[Shagdogy]

Good breakdown.

The only thing I can think to add is Martinez took that fight with Souk on 2 weeks notice** and still put up a hell of a fight.

I considered this point and looked back at some older fights of Martinez when he had a full camp to prepare hoping to see more physicality and I didn't. I just don't think he will match Liu with strength/size/power. Otherwise I like his skills. I think he definitely has the IQ and instincts advantage. Until I see him keep a stronger pressure fighter off of him, I don't know if I can assume he can do it.

[Shagdogy]

I feel Fili is smoother on the feet...not as strong but better....

This is a fair point. Fili is longer and throws a pretty straight, crisp jab. I reflected on this one a bit more and it's a close fight. There's really no reason that I see to be too confident about either side. Should be a high quality fight, so probably one to just sit back and enjoy.

I did see that Moraes went to Tiger Muay Thai for this camp which I love. But the long, straight jab of Fili is going to be enough to make me stay away.

[Thor4140]

Oh if you bet Faber....by rigged dec is his only chance....and it would be disrespectful for Emmett to say anything different.....they cant SAY its a penetrating cash grab lol...

Wouldn't that be nice if someone did? "hey last night Uriah was telling us how much he is making and we all were laughing knowing Uriah hasn't trained for months" U would be respected a lot more and of course get your release from any sport you whispered that for

[jacharron17]

Liking the Over 3.5 De Randamie and Ladd at +124.

[Shagdogy]

After going back and rewatching pieces of their last fights, and looking through my notes, I have totally changed my mind from my initial lean in Moraes/Fili. There are too many troubling tendencies from Moraes for me to ignore that leads me to believe he might be KO or bust in this fight. One, he doesn’t deal with leg kicks well. In fact, against Yussuf he didn’t do anything to deal with them. No attempt to counter at all. No way to deter Yussuf, and I think Fili can land them just as well from even farther away. Second, Moraes's flat-footed style has little to no real movement and will likely make him a stationary target for Fili’s jab and cross, which he did a decent job throwing off rhythm against Jury. Fili by decision seems the most likely outcome now, with him racking up leg kicks and jabs while Moraes fails to answer, eats too many shots, and just hunts the KO. If Moraes is unable to crack Fili clean, then I don’t think he wins. Especially not the hometown fight where Fili will have the crowd and maybe the judges. FightMetric stats support this read as well, with Fili having a positive strike differential and Moraes having a negative one. Fili also lands more significant strikes per minute (eats more too but just barely. It’s pretty much even). Also, if anyone could land a TD and steal a round with it, it’s Fili. It's a total 180 from where I was originally but now I see value on Fili as the slight fav. The only thing deterring me from pulling the trigger now is that I played Jury kind of confidently in Fili's last fight and totally misread it.

[Sanity Check]

Clip of Aspen Ladd's weight cut everyone was talking about:

https://twitter.com/BelowTheBeltMMA/status/1149724062006108162

I don't know if she had a bad cut. Peoples eyes look dry, red and irritated when they're severely dehydrated. Her eyes look fine? Its hard to tell with the lighting in there.

[nyrider88]

i can see her nipples turned hard.

[Shagdogy]

Damn, Brianna Van Buren is a good fighter... Excellent TDs and very heavy top control. But her resume is nowhere close to that of Souza's.

BJJ: Souza is a black belt with 8 sub wins. Van Buren is a purple belt with 3 sub wins.

Experience: Souza has fought twice in the UFC. This is Van Buren's UFC debut.

Quality: Souza's last six wins have been over opponents with an INSANE combined record of 55-6. During that time she handed three different undefeated fighters their first losses. Van Buren's best win is either Juliana Lima (a ONE round decision win), or Kailin Curran who was 1-6 in the UFC. If you want to claim the 11-2 Kolekar is her best win, just go take a look at how she built that record.

I can't deny the skills that Van Buren has but there is absolutely no way that she has proven herself up to this task that is in front of her tomorrow. That's not to say that she can't win, but just that anyone who thinks that she has done anything to prove it yet is fooling themselves. Maybe all the skills she's shown so far will translate to this level, but this is such a monumental step up that I can't imagine backing her at favorite odds in this spot. Good luck to her, but this screams dog or pass to me.

[freelee]

I'm confused if she had such a hard weight cut why did she cut an extra pound?

[Sanity Check]

I'm confused if she had such a hard weight cut why did she cut an extra pound?

Sometimes scales they use when cutting weight are 1 pound off.

Other times they make championship weight to see what its like. Etc.


AFAIK anyway

[turbozed]

Damn, Brianna Van Buren is a good fighter... Excellent TDs and very heavy top control. But her resume is nowhere close to that of Souza's.

BJJ: Souza is a black belt with 8 sub wins. Van Buren is a purple belt with 3 sub wins.

Experience: Souza has fought twice in the UFC. This is Van Buren's UFC debut.

Quality: Souza's last six wins have been over opponents with an INSANE combined record of 55-6. During that time she handed three different undefeated fighters their first losses. Van Buren's best win is either Juliana Lima (a ONE round decision win), or Kailin Curran who was 1-6 in the UFC. If you want to claim the 11-2 Kolekar is her best win, just go take a look at how she built that record.

I can't deny the skills that Van Buren has but there is absolutely no way that she has proven herself up to this task that is in front of her tomorrow. That's not to say that she can't win, but just that anyone who thinks that she has done anything to prove it yet is fooling themselves. Maybe all the skills she's shown so far will translate to this level, but this is such a monumental step up that I can't imagine backing her at favorite odds in this spot. Good luck to her, but this screams dog or pass to me.

I have 3u on Brianna at +130. Honestly, I don't think Morandin, Chambers, and Frota are a much higher level of opponents than Curran and Lima. Frota is probably the toughest out of all those girls due to sheer size alone but still was considered a terrible fighter coming into the fight. The big difference here is that Brianna came out and dominated all her opponents with consistently and showing good skills and cardio. Souza arguably lost her fight to Frota, or at least it was razor thing, and showed a lot of cardio issues and holes in her game against Morandin.

Brianna just matches up well with Souza. Brianna has the advantage striking and her takedowns look much sharper. She has also learned that Dagestani style wrestling staying in half guard and lacing the legs. Souza hasn't looked great on her back being too content to stay there and throw up armbar and triangle attempts. Brianna seems to be immensely strong while Souza isn't overpowering, except for sometimes being able to blitz her opponents in the first round (which inevitable leads to her slowing later). Brianna really should dictate where this fight takes place. If she's winning exchanges striking, she can keep it there. If Souza comes forward aggressively, she can change levels and land the TD. The only x factors here are that Souza has some sneaky power early and can sometimes surprise her opponents with her aggression. If that doesn't work, I don't see her winning rounds against Brianna, especially the later rounds.

[Shagdogy]

I have 3u on Brianna at +130. Honestly, I don't think Morandin, Chambers, and Frota are a much higher level of opponents than Curran and Lima. Frota is probably the toughest out of all those girls due to sheer size alone but still was considered a terrible fighter coming into the fight. The big difference here is that Brianna came out and dominated all her opponents with consistently and showing good skills and cardio. Souza arguably lost her fight to Frota, or at least it was razor thing, and showed a lot of cardio issues and holes in her game against Morandin.

Brianna just matches up well with Souza. Brianna has the advantage striking and her takedowns look much sharper. She has also learned that Dagestani style wrestling staying in half guard and lacing the legs. Souza hasn't looked great on her back being too content to stay there and throw up armbar and triangle attempts. Brianna seems to be immensely strong while Souza isn't overpowering, except for sometimes being able to blitz her opponents in the first round (which inevitable leads to her slowing later). Brianna really should dictate where this fight takes place. If she's winning exchanges striking, she can keep it there. If Souza comes forward aggressively, she can change levels and land the TD. The only x factors here are that Souza has some sneaky power early and can sometimes surprise her opponents with her aggression. If that doesn't work, I don't see her winning rounds against Brianna, especially the later rounds.

I don’t hate it at dog odds. I agree with most points. I think Souza’s aggression will work against her and give Van Buren easy reactive double legs. Once on top she has excellent shoulder pressure and takes the posts away very well like you said. I’m not sure Van Buren has the striking advantage just because I think there might be a big power discrepancy. Finally, while I want to hold the time spent on her back against her, I really can’t because Souza sweeps, hits subs, and has found success anyway. But as short and stocky as Van Buren is it will prove very difficult to armba or triangle her. Especially since she doesn’t posture up often when in top position. At +130 sure, but my point was I don’t know why anyone would pay juice here.

[Thrilla]

Ceremonial Weigh-ins.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Its on the mma fighting Instagram page
She was literally shaking and on the verge of passing out... shocked she got cleared

that was painful to watch

she needs to go up a weight class or get on a cleaner eating regimen to avoid this in the future

[Duckshit]

In No Sharp but it seems to me that HALL IS GOING TO GET THAT DAMN FOOT pretty easily.

My favorite wager in a long time.

Best matchup Ryan could have asked for.

[JIBBBY]

MMA MANIA prelim write ups -




135 lbs.: Liu Pingyuan vs. Jonathan Martinez

Liu Pingyuan (13-5) entered the Octagon unbeaten since 2013, ending six of those fights in the first round. Though he’s yet to score a finish in the Octagon, he enters the cage on the heels of decisions over Damian Stasiak and Martin Day.
Five of his nine stoppage wins have come by submission.
Jonathan Martinez (10-2) entered the Octagon with just one defeat, a 2015 disqualification loss to future The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) competitor Matt Schnell, but could not overcome Andre Soukhamthath in his short-notice Octagon debut. “The Dragon” went on to face China’s Wuliji Buren, surviving a few takedowns to take a dominant decision victory.
He opened his career with five consecutive knockouts and landed armbars in his last two pre-UFC bouts.
This fight favors Martinez so long as it stays on the feet. Thing is, it won’t — Martinez has been taken down six times in two UFC bouts, and though Buren wasn’t a sufficiently skilled submission artist to make the most of his top control, Liu most certainly is.
Martinez has an avenue of victory if he can stuff Liu’s takedowns and force the Chinese prospect to either try to duke it out or start pulling guard. After seeing his grappling struggles, though, it’s hard to have faith that he can do so. Liu survives some hairy striking exchanges to dominate from top position.
Prediction: Liu via unanimous decision
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---

115 lbs.: Livinha Souza vs. Brianna Van Buren

Undaunted by the loss of her Invicta Strawweight title to Angela Hill, Livinha Souza (13-1) picked up two more dominant victories in the promotion before scoring an 81-second submission of Alex Chambers in her UFC debut. Though she had to dig deep, Souza also came out victorious against the overweight Sarah Frota, who used her size and strength to wear down Souza, but ultimately wound up on the wrong end of a split decision.
Eight of her 10 stoppage victories have come by submission.
Brianna Van Buren (8-2) opened her career 3-2, but has not tasted defeat since ending a three-year hiatus in 2018. Her breakthrough came this past May in Invicta’s Phoenix Rising tournament, defeating Manjit Kolekar, Juliana Lima and Kailin Curran in a single night.
The 5’0” Van Buren replaces Cynthia Calvillo on short notice.
Van Buren is an excellent addition to the roster who could make some real noise in very little time. She’s also up against it in her debut; though likely the physically stronger of the two, Van Buren can’t match Souza’s technical wrestling, and her southpaw stance leaves her open to Souza’s straight right and body kick. To make matters worse, Van Buren is on the wrong end of a five-inch height disadvantage, making it difficult for her to get her boxing going.
Souza just seems like a little too much, a little too soon for “Tha Bull.” Souza catches her coming in with a reactive takedown, moves to the back, and ends things in the first.
Prediction: Souza via first-round submission

---

135 lbs.: Benito Lopez vs. Vince Morales

Benito Lopez (9-1) put on one of the best “Contender Series” bouts in his split decision victory over Steven Peterson, then followed that up with another fun decision over Albert Morales in UFC proper. Injury kept him out of action for all of 2018, after which he tapped to a Manny Bermudez guillotine this past February.
He stands three inches taller than Vince Morales (9-3) at 5’10” and will have a 5.5-inch reach advantage.
“Vandetta” looked poised to claim victory on “Contender Series,” where he floored the favored Domingo Pilarte, but succumbed to a comeback submission in the second round. After a victory in Bellator, he unsuccessfully debuted in the Octagon against Song Yadong before upsetting Aiemann Zahabi in May.
He replaces the injured Martin Day on two weeks’ notice.
Now this could be fun! Lopez always guns for the first-round knockout and Morales packs impressive heat in his hands for a Bantamweight. It’s a clash of explosiveness and creativity versus fundamentals and resilience.
Said resilience looks like the key to this fight. Lopez has a habit of slowing terribly after a strong start to the point that even Peterson, whose striking strategy is “lower head, fling hands, and hope for the best,” made it competitive on the feet. “Golden Boy” is unlikely to score a quick finish and lacks the technical polish to deal with Morales once he’s no longer able to counter any given strike with a flying knee. “Vandetta” keeps it competitive in the first before pulling away on the strength of his boxing craft, ultimately putting Lopez away late.
Prediction: Morales via third-round technical knockout


205 lbs.: Mike Rodriguez vs. John Allan

Mike Rodriguez (10-3) smashed Jamelle Jones with a flying knee on “Contender Series” for his fourth consecutive first-round knockout, earning a UFC contract in the process. “Slo-Mike” dropped a decision to Devin Clark in his promotional debut, struggling with “Brown Bear’s” wrestling, then bounced back by finishing Adam Milstead in Milwaukee.
He’ll have a 7.5-inch reach advantage on his Brazilian foe.
John Allan (13-5) put the hurt on Vinicius Moreia on the Contender Series: Brazil, but ultimately tapped to a triangle choke once “Mamute” got his grappling going. He returned to action less than three weeks ago with an impressive finish of unbeaten Alexandre Silva, leaving him 5-1 in his last six.
He steps in for the injured Gian Villante on little more than one week of notice.
Allan’s a fun addition to the division, an aggressive power-puncher with a delightful willingness to wreck the body. Even better, his shoddy grappling won’t be an issue against a willing striker in Rodriguez, allowing him to unleash the entirety of his arsenal.
His flat-footedness and reach disadvantage, on the other hand, will be issues.
Though Allan’s shown a nice jab, he’s going to have serious issues closing more than half a foot of distance, especially considering the damage Rodriguez can do with knees and straight lefts up the middle. Worse, Allan’s punches tend to get wider when he tries to put together lengthy combinations, leaving him even more vulnerable to the taller man’s linear blows. Rodriguez answers Allan’s relentless advance with a nasty knee sometime in the first round.
Prediction: Rodriguez via first-round technical knockout
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---

145 lbs.: Andre Fili vs. Sheymon Moraes

Andre Fili (19-6) alternated wins and losses in the Octagon until 2018, when he followed up a dominant victory over Artem Lobov with a controversial decision over Dennis Bermudez. He was on the wrong end of the next split decision against Michael Johnson, but started 2019 strong by beating Myles Jury in Phoenix.
“Touchy” has won eight fights via (technical) knockout and three by submission, though his last six bouts have gone the distance.
Sheymon Moraes (11-3) got a rough welcome to UFC, debuting against the surging Zabit Magomadsharipov and tapping to an anaconda choke, but established himself as a contender in his own right by upsetting “Contender Series” prospects Matt Sayles and Julio Arce. He took on yet another “Contender Series” alumnus in Sodiq Yusuff, going toe-to-toe with the heavy-handed Lloyd Irvin-trained product en route to a competitive decision loss.
He’ll give up three inches of height and two inches of reach to Fili.
It’s hard to get a bead on Moraes. At his best, he’s a lethal, accurate Muay Thai machine with one-shot power in his hands. At his worst, he’s content to cruise and bank on the quality of his shots outweighing the superior volume coming back at him. He has the tools to be a contender in a crazy-stacked division ... he just needs to use them properly.
Fili is out-gunned on the feet, but his wrestling and general well-roundedness make this a toss-up. After seeing the issues Fili’s had with more technical strikers, though, I’ll pick Moraes despite my reservations.
Prediction: Moraes via unanimous decision
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---

135 lbs.: Nicco Montano vs. Julianna Pena

Nicco Montano (4-2) defeated Lauren Murphy, Montana de la Rosa, and Barb Honchak in The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 26 house before taking a decision over Roxanne Modafferi to claim the division’s inaugural title. A planned defense against Valentina Shevchenko fell through when Montano fouled up her weight cut, and the Jackson’s product was ultimately stripped of her title.
She went undefeated (4-0) as an amateur before joining the professional ranks in 2015.
Despite entering the show on a two-fight losing streak, Julianna Pena (8-3) dominated on TUF 18, finishing three of her four opponents en route to tournament victory. Three more Octagon victories earned her a headlining spot opposite Valentina Shevchenko, who caught “Venezuelan Vixen” with an armbar late in the second round.
Pena, who replaces the injured Sara McMann, has not fought since Jan. 2017.
The upset-happy Montano looked like a solid Flyweight threat, but Bantamweight is another story. Pena has been able to take down every one of her UFC opponents, including Shevchenko, and I don’t see Montano winning this fight without consistently establishing top control.
Ring rust will need to do a lot of heavy lifting to keep this competitive.
This would be a rough match up for the former Flyweight champ even without the weight difference. Factor in Pena’s size and strength and Montano’s got serious problems. Though it should be fairly even on the feet, Pena’s ability to lean on her wrestling as needed will allow her to take a comfortable decision.
Prediction: Pena via unanimous decision
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---

145 lbs.: Darren Elkins vs. Ryan Hall

Darren Elkins (24-7) put together a wholly unexpected six-fight win streak from 2015 to 2018, defeating the likes of Chas Skelly, Mirsad Bektic and Michael Johnson along the way. Though he managed to last the distance against Alexander Volkanovski in defeat, “The Damage” couldn’t do the same against Ricardo Lamas, who put away Elkins with vicious ground-and-pound for the Team Alpha Male-trained product’s first stoppage loss since 2013.
Elkins has scored eight professional wins via (technical) knockout.
Hall used his Brazilian jiu-jitsu wizardry to reach the semifinals of TUF 22, and though he lost to Saul Rogers, a quirk of fate gave him the opportunity to dominate Artem Lobov on the Finale and claim victory in the tournament. He has since won a decision over Gray Maynard and became the first man to submit B.J. Penn in mixed martial arts (MMA) competition in Dec. 2018.
Counting his run on TUF, Hall has scored heel hooks on four of his last six opponents.
Will you look at that, another two-true-outcome fight; Indeed, either Hall taps Elkins early or Elkins repeats Rogers’ efforts and grinds Hall into the dirt from guard. I don’t see Hall keeping Elkins off of him with his funky kicks or playing backpack the way he did against Lobov. For my money, it’s quick submission or bust.
Luckily, Hall has the goods to get that quick submission.
Elkins is 35 years old and has taken beatings in four of his last five fights. He managed to come back and win two of those, but I think we’ve seen the best of him. Hall takes advantage of Elkins’ lack of speed and general decline to Imanari roll his way into another heel hook finish.
Prediction: Hall via first-round submission

Main Card Predictions...


135 lbs.: Germaine “The Iron Lady” de Randamie (8-3) vs. Aspen Ladd (8-0)
A standout Muay Thai artist with lingering wrestling issues and a lethal ground-and-pounder with shaky striking defense make for an intriguing clash of styles. Their respective histories, however, point to Ladd having the edge.
De Randamie is 5-1 in the Octagon. Of those six opponents, I’d tab three as capable wrestlers: Julie Kedzie, who took her down twice in a losing effort back in 2013, Amanda Nunes, who pounded her into submission after a single takedown one fight later, and Raquel Pennington, who went 0-8 on her takedowns last November but looked like a shell of her former self.
Ladd, meanwhile, proved against Sijara Eubanks that she can walk through blistering return fire, and like Nunes, she only needs to ground de Randamie once to set up a fight-ending burst of violence. That durability and relentlessness will be key; in de Randamie’s last main event, she only managed 2.5 solid rounds against Holly Holm before slipping into cruise control. I don’t see “The Iron Lady’s” takedown defense holding up for that long against someone who will force her to constantly work.
De Randamie does have three inches of height and five inches of reach on Ladd, plus a dangerous clinch, but Ladd’s tenacity and wrestling should put enough of a damper on the Dutchwoman’s offense to keep her out of danger. Ladd survives a rough start to muscle de Randamie to the ground and pound her out from mount or the back.
Prediction: Ladd by second-round TKO
135 lbs.: Urijah “The California Kid” Faber (34-10) vs. Ricky Simon (15-1)
Honestly, this fight would have been close to a pick-’em as recently as 2017. Simon is a stud, but Faber’s struggles came almost exclusively against superior strikers whom he couldn’t take down. He ate high-speed scramblers like Simon alive even during his decline.
Unfortunately, Faber is now 40 years old and 2.5 years removed from the cage. His one-note striking offense relies heavily on his speed, a trait Simon can easily match, and he’ll struggle to outwrestle a guy who manhandled one of the division’s best prospects in Montel Jackson.
Faber’s stayed busy on the mats during his time away and his appearances on QUINTET and Polaris show that his grappling is as fearsome as ever. It’s just hard to see him consistently making it work against a man 14 years his junior, one who is similarly technically potent and can likely outclass Faber’s renowned athleticism. Simon scrambles out of a few hairy spots to control the fight standing and bank a decision.
Prediction: Simon by unanimous decision
145 lbs.: Josh Emmett (14-2) vs. Mirsad Bektic (13-1)
This is low-key the best fight on the card. Emmett’s shown absolutely ludicrous power at 145 pounds and Bektic boasts some of the division’s most destructive top control. Even better, each fighter is well-equipped to exploit the other’s weakness; Emmett has had wrestling issues in the past, while Bektic’s chin remains a question mark after his loss to Darren Elkins.
Scary as Emmett is, it’s hard to pick against the superior takedown artist. Bektic is absolutely relentless with his wrestling onslaught, averaging more than 3.5 takedowns per 15 minutes, and the constant threat this represents makes it unlikely that Emmett will be able to plant his feet and hurl bombs with confidence.
Bektic does tend to overcommit to his punches, though, and any prolonged exchange is a golden opportunity for Emmett to turn his lights out. Thing is, Emmett will hesitate to do so after a round or so of getting ground against the fence and battered from the top. Bektic puts the pace on him for either a late stoppage or wide decision.
Prediction: Bektic by unanimous decision
185 lbs.: Karl “Baby K” Roberson (7-2) vs. Wellington “Fofão” Turman (15-2)
This was originally supposed to be Roberson against John Phillips, which would have been entertaining for exactly as long as it took Roberson to realize he could just take Phillips down and choke him out whenever he wanted. Turman’s a greater threat by virtue of having, well, any ground game at all, but “Baby K” should still come out victorious.
Despite a kickboxing background that saw him arguably defeat the legendary Jerome Le Banner, Roberson’s shown some solid wrestling chops in the Octagon, not to mention the crushing Travis Browne-style elbows he used to put away Ryan Spann on the Contender Series and nearly finish the larger Glover Teixeira in January. Turman, who sports some quality trips from the clinch but has issues with his entries, will struggle to impose his strong submission game without taking serious damage.
On the feet, Turman is too plodding to keep up with Roberson and seems to lack the one-shot power he’d need to compensate.
At 22, Turman still has plenty of time to improve, but he’ll have to live with a poor start to his Octagon career. Roberson sprawls-and-brawls his way to a dominant striking victory.
Prediction: Roberson by unanimous decision
185 lbs.: Marvin “The Italian Dream” Vettori (12-3-1) vs. Cezar “Mutante” Ferreira (13-7)
A Sherdog preview for this event pointed out that Ferreira’s UFC career arc mirrors Alistair Overeem’s and I’m still awestruck by the accuracy of that comparison. After a dominant run on the inaugural Ultimate Fighter: Brazil, “Mutante” entered the Octagon as a physical freak with dangerous power in his limbs and a killer guillotine, only to evolve into a patient counter-puncher and willing grappler once his fragility became apparent.
It’s worked so far, giving him wins in five of his last seven over the likes of Jack Marshman, Anthony Smith, and Karl Roberson. The two losses were a bogus decision against Elias Theodorou and a recent defeat against Ian Heinisch, who’s been outstanding in the UFC.
So how does Vettori measure up?
“The Italian Dream” is a capable wrestler and submission artist, a skillset that let him fight Israel Adesanya to a split decision, but hasn’t been terribly eye-catching in the Octagon. His two victories came over extremely poor grapplers in Alberto Uda and Vitor Miranda, and it was only Omari Akhmedov’s legendarily bad cardio that let Vettori escape with a draw in their bout. His aggression opens him up to Ferreira’s accurate counters and leaves him vulnerable to reactive takedowns or the Brazilian’s fearsome guillotine.
Ferreira is a stylistic nightmare for Vettori; expect him to constantly plug him with counters and rack up several minutes of top control en route to victory.
Prediction: Ferreira by unanimous decision

[turbozed]

I don’t hate it at dog odds. I agree with most points. I think Souza’s aggression will work against her and give Van Buren easy reactive double legs. Once on top she has excellent shoulder pressure and takes the posts away very well like you said. I’m not sure Van Buren has the striking advantage just because I think there might be a big power discrepancy. Finally, while I want to hold the time spent on her back against her, I really can’t because Souza sweeps, hits subs, and has found success anyway. But as short and stocky as Van Buren is it will prove very difficult to armba or triangle her. Especially since she doesn’t posture up often when in top position. At +130 sure, but my point was I don’t know why anyone would pay juice here.

BvB looks to really have turned a corner after the Montenegro fight in 2015. Looks like she spent a lot of time at AKA and hasn't just been winning since coming back in 2018, but winning every minute of every round of each fight (35 minutes). It's very rare to see a girl dominate like that without showing any weaknesses.

What I like about her versus other girls that make the Invicta jump to UFC is that she has a round winning style, knows what to do, and implements it very well without hesitation. She also seems to have that type of unfair strength where girls she's fought simply cannot compete physically with her. She's throwing around girls in ways that we really don't see in the division save for beasts like Andrade.

Her game has worked so well (especially wrestling/grappling) that the only reservation I have is that we don't get a chance to see her on her back, or how she reacts when she doesn't get her way. BvB is now a brown belt and has been clearly getting some great instruction at AKA so that might be enough to survive if she gets put in a bad position. Souza does come out aggressively and with sneaky power in the first round, but that fades pretty quickly. Would be good to live bet since Souza's first rounds are her best, and to get some info on how they match up strength wise. Unfortunately, I don't know if we get live betting on a fight pass prelim so I wound up putting in a small hedge bet of Souza Rd1 +850.

[nyrider88]

https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Pingyuan-Liu-83520

most people would've given up with 4 losses right off the bat but now with 9 wins streak. crazy. i still like to fade on asians like jibby.

[JIBBBY]

https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Pingyuan-Liu-83520

most people would've given up with 4 losses right off the bat but now with 9 wins streak. crazy. i still like to fade on asians like jibby.

Asian fading in the UFC usually pays off.. This Asian is a wrestler though, could grind out a decision like the write up above mentions. Tricky call here.

[Unwritten Law]

Fading all of TAM on their own home turf except Liu.

[nyrider88]

Asian fading in the UFC usually pays off.. This Asian is a wrestler though, could grind out a decision like the write up above mentions. Tricky call here.

good call. 20 yrs from now, 99% of fighters will adopt wrestling in their game.

[Shagdogy]

I have not played one thing on this card yet... just really don't love anything. Trying not to force something. The plays that I have my finger on are...

Martinez +160
Ferreira +131
Hall by sub +165
Simon/Faber FDGTD +165
Fili -135

I think Roberson/Turman fight will not go the distance, and Allan/Rodriguez will not go the distance but both are out of my preferred price range at -235 and -330.

I wasn't able to give it as much time as I'd like, but I gave this card a solid look and I just don't love anything all that much. As I write this I'm thinking I may play those first 3 plays for 1u each. I think there's a solid shot 2 of those 3 hit and it's pretty low risk with them all at plus money.

[JIBBBY]

This is how I'm playing this card... Not getting to cute with my prop betting with this card.. Meat and potatoes betting.. Lot's of betting on the straights as the the odds allow.. See if I can grind out a profit with this line up below!!! Good luck fellas!!

1) Morales straight
2) Souza straight
3) Lui by Dec
4) Elkins by Dec/hedged Hall sub
5) Pena by Dec
6) Moreas Straight
7) Rodrigues ITD
8) Ferreira Straight
9) Turman sub/hedged Robertson by Dec
10) Beltik ITD/hedged Emmett by KO
11) Ricky Simon ITD
12) Ladd Straight

[Thor4140]

I have 3u on Brianna at +130. Honestly, I don't think Morandin, Chambers, and Frota are a much higher level of opponents than Curran and Lima. Frota is probably the toughest out of all those girls due to sheer size alone but still was considered a terrible fighter coming into the fight. The big difference here is that Brianna came out and dominated all her opponents with consistently and showing good skills and cardio. Souza arguably lost her fight to Frota, or at least it was razor thing, and showed a lot of cardio issues and holes in her game against Morandin.

Brianna just matches up well with Souza. Brianna has the advantage striking and her takedowns look much sharper. She has also learned that Dagestani style wrestling staying in half guard and lacing the legs. Souza hasn't looked great on her back being too content to stay there and throw up armbar and triangle attempts. Brianna seems to be immensely strong while Souza isn't overpowering, except for sometimes being able to blitz her opponents in the first round (which inevitable leads to her slowing later). Brianna really should dictate where this fight takes place. If she's winning exchanges striking, she can keep it there. If Souza comes forward aggressively, she can change levels and land the TD. The only x factors here are that Souza has some sneaky power early and can sometimes surprise her opponents with her aggression. If that doesn't work, I don't see her winning rounds against Brianna, especially the later rounds.

Turbo what is you opinion in the Ladd fight. I never saw her fight and don't have the time to look her up. Was interested in what you thought of her. Her opponent i am up to date on.

[Thor4140]

i can see her nipples turned hard.

That i hear happens if they get sucked on for hours the night before. Ask Jibby he should verify that.

[Duckshit]

In No Sharp but it seems to me that HALL IS GOING TO GET THAT DAMN FOOT pretty easily.

My favorite wager in a long time.

Best matchup Ryan could have asked for.

Anyone on the Other side?

Hugo?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Out of town partying with some friends. Will post picks in 20 mins or so

[turbozed]

Turbo what is you opinion in the Ladd fight. I never saw her fight and don't have the time to look her up. Was interested in what you thought of her. Her opponent i am up to date on.

I played GDR at +120 and kept on adding up to +160. I've been pretty high on Ladd when she debuted in the UFC, but think her finishes of Lansberg and Evinger make her out to be a bit more hyped than she deserves to be. Her major weapon is her top game, and she can finish anyone if she is able to get dominant position on the ground. But there are a ton of holes in her game which make it difficult to consistently get the fight where she wants against a person that doesn't want her to engage there. The first is that she move forward at one slow speed, and is wide open defensively. The second is that her wrestling really isn't that great. She's hit a level chance double leg on Lansberg, but against Eubanks she shot from far out and airplaned the shot. Mainly prefers the bodylock takedown, which GDR has defended well in her past 4 fights. The biggest issue is that she hasn't shown an ability to close distance to grapple, relying on her slow motion forward pressure to cause girls to clinch with her. While this works against poor strikers, it's going to be difficult to handle against GDR who has the range, knows how to use it, and the footwork to preserve it. Cardio-wise, Ladd looked to slow considerably against Eubanks, and she took a bit of damage in that fight just two months ago. Now with another hard cut in a short time span and it's likely she slows again, especially if she's chasing TDs at a longer distance and failing, all the while eating punches from GDR. I think her window to win is narrow (first 2.5 rounds), and she needs to rely on a tool that's not reliable. If she does wind up getting GDR down with time to work, then she has a great chance of finishing.

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on ESPN+ 13: Ladd vs. De Randamie
Vince Morales Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Brianna Van Buren Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Pingyuan Liu Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Ryan Hall Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Julianna Pena Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Sheymon Moraes Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Mike Rodriguez Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Cezar Ferreira Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Karl Roberson Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Mirsad Bektic Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Ricky Simon Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Germaine de Randamie Unanimous Decision (49-46 x2, 48-47)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on ESPN+ 13: Ladd vs. De Randamie

ESPN+ Prelims:

Fight #1: V. Morales vs. B. Lopez
V. Morales (-120) 1.8u to win 1.5u
V. Morales+B.Lopez Won’t Go Distance (+170) 1u

Fight #2: Van Buren (DEBUT) vs. L. Souza
Van Buren (-110) 2.2u to win 2u

Fight #3: Liu vs. Martinez
No Bet

Fight #4: R. Hall vs. Elkins
R. Hall Decision (+430) 0.5u

Fight #5: Pena vs. Montano
No Bet

Fight #6: S. Moraes vs. Fili
S. Moraes KO/TKO (+525) 0.5u

Fight #7: M. Rodriguez vs. Allan (DEBUT)
No Bet

Main Card:

Fight #8: Ce. Ferreira vs. Vettori
Ce. Ferreira Decision (+275) 0.75u

Fight #9: Roberson vs. Turman (DEBUT)
No Bet

Fight #10: Bektic vs. Emmett
Bektic (-170) 3.4u to win 2u
Bektic ITD (+295) 1u

Hedge:
Emmett ITD (+300) 1u

Fight #11: Simon vs. Faber
Simon+Faber Goes Distance (-180) 1.8u to win 1u
Simon+Faber Under 2.5 (+220) 0.5u

Hedge:
Faber Submission (+869) 0.5u

Fight #12: De Randamie vs. Ladd
De Randamie (+120) 1.5u

Hedge:
Ladd Round 1 (+425) 0.5u

Straight Parlays:
S. Moraes/Simon (+131) 1u

Prop Parlays:
Bektic+Emmett WGD/Simon Decision (+247) 0.75u

Full Card Props:
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+263) 0.5u
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+701) 0.2u
Over 9.5 Fights Go Distance (+2424) 0.1u

Multi-Event Parlays:
Simon/Cyborg (-140) 2.8u to win 2u
Simon/A. Hernandez (+119) 1u

[Hugo de Naranja]

Fading all of TAM on their own home turf except Liu.

I like this. Good luck sir!

[JC2008]

Good luck everybody! Let's get it!