Bellator 222: MacDonald vs. Gracie (June 14, 2019)

[PaperTrail07]

He is way undersized and was losing his fight to Caldwell before the loss....the cage helps Caldwell even more----no standups when they tie up and go between the boxing ropes....unless Caldwell made a VERY dumb mistake like last time, there is no reason to think he does not win this....I however don't blame you for betting against RORY.....he seems like he is in a better place mentally BUT its not the same killer we all knew and wagered on....that's for sure....Like the over 3.5 in the Caldwell fight as well..... good luck tonight UL

Gracie is a no brainer for me, hope to play at plus odds by fight day. Might just have to lock it in by Thursday's weigh-ins. Just basing off Rory's last performance against a washed up Fitch. Was not impressed at all. While Gracie seems very hungry for that belt. Don't think anyone in the division can beat Gracie in Bellator right now. I have Gracie submitting Rory within the 3rd round. The wrong fighter is favored here, Rory is only favored due to him being the champ. I personally capped Gracie at -175.

Kyoji Horiguchi is the other play. Horiguchi has more paths to victory as evident with his submission win already over Caldwell. He has KO power as well. The only disadvantage I see for Horiguchi is the wrestling/ground game. Still I like Horiguchi to keep it standing and he will win the stand up exchanges. This probably goes to a decision. Horiguchi at plus money is another steal, IMO.

[PaperTrail07]

-290


Sorry for the 100 posts....

I thought about that then realized the line for Pico could easily be -1000 to -2000 and wouldn't be worth it.

[bjpenn85]

-1500 parlayed with a -400......toss the house on it LOL...

Jesus christ paper. You know well that machida was -280 and danis -650 earlier this week.

Combined its -175, acceptable.

Although Sonnen has good td, i dont think he will take down Machida, and machida still looks like hes fast and agile. Is it because hes drinking is own urine? Is it because he hasnt taken that much damage? Good genes? I dont know. I dont think Machida look that bad, hes not the same fighter, but he is still dynamic, fast and the machida we know of old...maybe 75% of the old Machida. Sonnen is a 35% version of the old Sonnen. And im willing to put a bet on the table that what i see is what we will get later today.

[Sanity Check]

Did anyone laugh when Rory Mac said he hurt his elbow driving it into Jon Fitch's skull. Some say the elbow is one of the hardest bones in the human body. Imagine how hard someone's head has to be for your elbow to be hurt after colliding with it.

[PaperTrail07]

At those odds--100%......but by the time you typed it, they changed haha...not many people got those lines....I'm with you on Machida....Sonnen just does not offer much these days.....

Jesus christ paper. You know well that machida was -280 and danis -650 earlier this week.

Combined its -175, acceptable.

Although Sonnen has good td, i dont think he will take down Machida, and machida still looks like hes fast and agile. Is it because hes drinking is own urine? Is it because he hasnt taken that much damage? Good genes? I dont know. I dont think Machida look that bad, hes not the same fighter, but he is still dynamic, fast and the machida we know of old...maybe 75% of the old Machida. Sonnen is a 35% version of the old Sonnen. And im willing to put a bet on the table that what i see is what we will get later today.

[bjpenn85]

At those odds--100%......but by the time you typed it, they changed haha...not many people got those lines....I'm with you on Machida....Sonnen just does not offer much these days.....

Thanks. Its nice to have a paper stamp on it.

Any thoughts on the other matchups? I think Bandeja will cruise as well. He wont get taken down, and standing, hes the better fighter.

[UncleChael]

You believe Sonnen will hold Machida down for a 3rd decision win?

Uncle Chael has to hold him down for 2:31 minutes for 2 rounds?
Do I look nervous?

[UncleChael]

I'm ride or die Uncle Chael for lifeee

[nyrider88]

machida and chael both have eggshell chin. but at +316 on BM, it's hard to pass up.

[JIBBBY]

Write ups...


170 lbs.: Neiman Gracie (9-0) vs. Rory MacDonald (20-5-1)

Suddenly Rory MacDonald doesn’t want to hurt people any more. That bizarre post-fight interview from “The Red King” followed an equally bizarre match where MacDonald advanced in the Welterweight Grand Prix because of a majority draw, even though his opponent Jon Fitch was the only one declared the winner on a judge’s scorecard. Despite that result, MacDonald promised via press release that he would “boldly go forward” in the tournament, sounding for all the world like Jean-Luc Picard was going to step in the cage.
Picard would probably have a better plan for this fight than MacDonald does right now. If he doesn’t have “the spirit to put a man through pain” then he’s in big trouble with Gracie, who has absolutely no qualms about taking people down and cranking on their necks until they tap out or pass out. Two years ago this fight would have seemed like a no-brainer win for MacDonald given his well rounded game, more than 13 years of fight experience and his killer right hand. By advancing via draw he’s unintentionally made this match much more intriguing.
The good news for MacDonald is that outside of jiu-jitsu they stack up pretty evenly — he’s 29 and Gracie is 30, he’s 6’0” and so is Gracie, and he has a reach advantage of 76” to 73” over his opponent. In that one area, though, Gracie owns MacDonald in every way given he is a highly decorated multiple-time Brazilian jiu-jitsu tournament medalist. In preview after preview, I say the exact same thing — don’t let Gracie take you down and/or get your back. The fact he’s undefeated until now says nobody’s been able to stop him from doing it.
If (and this is a really huge if) MacDonald can be the best version of himself tomorrow night, then he will find a way to stop Gracie. We saw something close to that in his title fight with Douglas Lima, and during his UFC tenure he defeated jiu-jitsu black belts who are just as highly regarded as Gracie — B.J. Penn, Demian Maia and Nate Diaz. That reach advantage really helps MacDonald here because Gracie has to close the distance to get any form of takedown whether it’s a double, a clinch and a judo throw, or even catching a kick and sweeping the leg. MacDonald has the capacity to leave him a bloody mess long before that happens so long as he remembers exactly who he is.
Final prediction: Rory MacDonald win’s via doctor’s stoppage after round three
Related
Face Offs! Watch MacDonald-Gracie, Machida-Sonnen Mean Mug At MSG

205 lbs.: Lyoto Machida (25-8) vs. Chael Sonnen (31-16-1)

If making money with your mouth also made you a world champion, “The American Gangster” Chael Sonnen would have held more titles than Conor McGregor. In amateur wrestling, Sonnen was as highly decorated as you could be, but as a professional mixed martial arts (MMA) fighter he’s been the DangerZone Light Heavyweight champion and the Gladiator Challenge Light Heavyweight champion. That’s it. If you’re scratching your head wondering why you don’t remember either of these things, it’s because they both occurred at the regional level before he even had his first World Extreme Cagefighting (WEC) fight ... in 2004. As I said, Sonnen is the champion of running his mouth to make money though, which got him two fights with Anderson Silva, one with Jon Jones, and to his credit he did beat both “Rampage” and long-time rival Wanderlei Silva.
It only makes sense to bring Sonnen back to Madison Square Garden, site of his battle with “The Axe Murderer,” and see if he can show the same drawing power with Lyoto Machida. “Power” is an interesting word here, though. Sonnen is 42 and Machida is 40, so they are both far closer to the end of their career than the beginning of it. Both are also a long distance away from any shot at current 205 champion Ryan Bader — Sonnen because he’s lost two of his last four, and Machida because his only Bellator win is over former Middleweight champion Rafael Carvalho. In addition, there were moments where Machida looked less than his dominant self, getting his nose well mashed in by Carvalho before regaining his form and outpointing him en route to a very close split decision win.
The essence of what we have here is two fighters with tremendous name value for a casual audience, which makes them perfect draws for MSG and for a live broadcast, who in practical terms don’t have their best days ahead of them. As Toby Keith once opined though, “I ain’t as good as I once was, but I’m as good once as I ever was.” That’s what we are looking for in this fight, and to the surprise of some, I’m going to edge the fight to Chael Sonnen in that category. As a life long grappler we know there are very few people he can’t take down, and despite the tremendous stopping power in their hands, neither Jackson nor Silva could drop him and stop him in Bellator. Machida’s best asset has always been his unorthodox striking, but it’s hard to land those strikes when you’re flat on your back.
Final prediction: Chael Sonnen dominates a unanimous decision
135 lbs.: Darrion Caldwell (13-2) vs. Kyoji Horiguchi (27-2)

The last time these two met Horiguchi submitted Caldwell in what would be an upset to anybody other than those who know Horiguchi and Caldwell. While 14 of Kyoji’s 27 wins have come by knockout (51 percent), Caldwell’s only other loss to date was ALSO via a guillotine choke. Even though Caldwell is as good a wrestler as they come in this weight class, his overconfidence in getting takedowns has left his neck exposed on many occasions, and two of his opponents were able to capitalize on that mistake.
One would have thought Caldwell learned from his mistake the first time it happened, but the fact Horiguchi caught him proved otherwise, and now Caldwell wants this match so he can prove it won’t happen a third time. Last time though, Caldwell had nothing to lose since his Bantamweight title wasn’t on the line at Rizin 14, but this time Horiguchi can take his belt away and become a “champ champ” in two different promotions at the same time. That’s incredibly motivating for a man who was let go by UFC despite having only one loss during his whole tenure, and his 12 fight win streak includes the end of his Zuffa run.
The best thing for Caldwell about this bout is that he can no longer afford to be cocky or overconfident about his chances. When Caldwell combines his wrestling game with a disciplined training camp and serious attitude toward his foes, he rolls on them hard — a fact Joe Warren, Shawn Bunch, Eduardo Dantas and Noad Lahat can all attest to. At 5’10” with a 74” reach he’s also got a huge size advantage over Horiguchi at 5’5” and a 66” reach. It’s easy to see how that made him overconfident before, but this reporter will be absolutely stunned if he makes that mistake a third time. Unless the bright lights of MSG and the pressure to perform break him mentally, his size advantage will work this time.
Final prediction: Darrion Caldwell wins via unanimous decision
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175 lbs.: Dillon Danis (1-0) vs. Max Humphrey (3-2)

There’s no denying it — Dillon Danis is a troublemaker and a loudmouth. We can debate whether or not that’s “good for the sport” on another day. Today, we’re only discussing whether the man good enough at jiu-jitsu to be Conor McGregor’s training partner has any reasonable chance of losing to Max Humphrey. And the short answer is, “no.” He’s lost two out of his last three fights and considering he’s got a mediocre record on the minor league circuit at 30 years old you already know the reason he was picked to face the young (25) Danis.
Final prediction: Dillon Danis wins via round one armbar
Related
Coming Soon: ‘Dudu’ Double Champ?

145 lbs.: Eduardo Dantas (21-6) vs. Juan Archuleta (22-1)

Former Bantamweight champion Eduardo “Dudu” Dantas looks to move up to Featherweight for this fight after a successful if somewhat boring return to form at Bellator 215. “The Spaniard” Juan Archuleta is unlikely to let Dantas have a boring fight. With a 17-fight win streak spanning back to 2015, Archuleta is both active and successful in his yearly MMA travails. In fact, 45 percent of his victories come by form of knockout and Dantas won’t want to be the man to edge that closer to 50 percent. Despite spending most of his career at 135 pounds, Dantas will actually be the bigger man here (5’10” to 5’8,” with both men having a 69” reach) and if he brings the speed and footwork of his championship days he’ll be fine. Despite that there’s something to be said for the intangible mental fortitude that comes from winning again and again and again year after year, fight after fight. In short you can make an argument for either man, which has to be the biggest headache imaginable for bookmakers.
Final prediction: Juan Archuleta via split decision
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135 lbs.: Ricky Bandejas (11-2) vs. Patrick Mix (10-0)

This one is a very tough call. On paper, Bandejas was brought in to make James Gallagher look good against a more experienced opponent, but Bandejas beat the odds and handed Gallagher his first loss. Against fellow main card fighter Juan Archuleta he looked far more human but it was still a very close fight. Much like his fight with Gallagher though, all the hype is on Mix, who made a name for himself in King of the Cage and was considered a UFC can’t miss. UFC whiffed on signing him, so Bellator gets a chance to showcase Mix on one of its “tent pole” events. Mix has finished 60 percent of his fights via submission and uses excellent takedown skills to put his opponents in danger, but Bandejas and the team at Nick Catone MMA are already well aware that’s what he’ll go for. If Bandejas can stuff them and keep it standing he’s got the striking technique to capture lightning in a bottle twice ... if.
Final prediction: Patrick Mix via second round rear-naked choke

[Teem]

Hmm, I can't find a stream. You guys know of one?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Got a few plays on this card including a Pico/Jones parlay for 2u. Will post when I get home. Wish they had props for Pico fight since I’m more confident in Won’t Go Distance than Pico ML but oh well

[Hugo de Naranja]

Bellator 222: MacDonald vs. Gracie

Fight #1: Pico vs. Borics
Parlays

Fight #2: Horiguchi vs. Caldwell
No Bet

Fight #3: Archuleta vs. Dantas
Parlays

Fight #4: Bandejas vs. Mix
No Bet

Fight #5: Danis vs. Humphrey
No Bet

Fight #6: Machida vs. Sonnen
No Bet

Fight #7: MacDonald (C) vs. Gracie
Gracie (+175) 2u

Straight Parlays:
Pico/Jones (-148) 2u to win 1.35u
Pico/Archuleta (+150) 1.5u

[Hugo de Naranja]

Picking Pico R1 TKO (Punches). Will post rest of picks shortly.

[Hugo de Naranja]

penetrating Pico man. Dominating in the wrestling and gets caught late in R2

[Hugo de Naranja]

Bellator 222: MacDonald vs. Gracie Picks:
Aaron Pico Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Kyoji Horiguchi Split Decision (48-47 x2, 47-48)
Juan Archuleta Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Ricky Bandejas Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Dillon Danis Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Lyoto Machida Round 1 TKO (Body Kick and Punches)
Neiman Gracie Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)

[JIBBBY]

I'm wanting to take a pass on this event.. Can't trust these old fighters or if the fights are fixed. Some of these old farts take a dive or tank for an easy pay day. Just a feeling I got with this card..

Machida ITD prop might be my only play.. Still debating that now? Perhaps Garcie ITD as well in the main.. Rory looks kinda done with this sport to me.. I'll probably play both now.. Just to be entertained..

[Unwritten Law]

So far so good. Rooted against the phony Pico! Then my boy Kyoji Horiguchi cashes and now the NEW champ!!! Let's go! We don't want Caldwell back in Japan until he earns another shot. Did absolutely nothing.

BTW, let's get that chit commentator Illane McFartland out of the booth. She is TERRIBLE!!!!

[JC2008]

So far so good. Rooted against the phony Pico! Then my boy Kyoji Horiguchi cashes and now the NEW champ!!! Let's go! We don't want Caldwell back in Japan until he earns another shot. Did absolutely nothing.

BTW, let's get that chit commentator Illane McFartland out of the booth. She is TERRIBLE!!!!

- When you're right, you're right....

[Hugo de Naranja]

Impressive KO from Archuleta

[Hugo de Naranja]

Added:
N. Gracie (+180) 1u

[Hugo de Naranja]

So far so good. Rooted against the phony Pico! Then my boy Kyoji Horiguchi cashes and now the NEW champ!!! Let's go! We don't want Caldwell back in Japan until he earns another shot. Did absolutely nothing.

BTW, let's get that chit commentator Illane McFartland out of the booth. She is TERRIBLE!!!!

Nice call on Guchi. Would be cool to see him fight in Bellator going forward. Probably the #3 Flyweight in the world.

[Unwritten Law]

Now to cash in Gracie in the main event. He's going for the finish. Pending parlays with Machida, Danis and Gracie to cap the night.

Horiguchi is leaving the US with the belt to Japan Archuleta haha He might have to come to Japan if he wants a crack. Would be an interesting fight though!

[Unwritten Law]

Seriously no more McFartland back in the booth. That flower does no good just like Caldwell's takedowns and stalling.

[nyrider88]

wtf. Dillion is at -4800 at BM, is he that good?

[turbozed]

If you have access to live betting for the fight, I would wait to hit Horiguchi after a round or two. If Caldwell controls Horiguchi for the first two rounds like he should, you might see Horiguchi at +300. Caldwell slows a bit, and with Horiguchi's movement and quickness, Caldwell will have probably spent a lot of energy to hang onto him in the first couple rounds. In later rounds, Guchi should be able to keep the distance even better. I wanted Guchi as a bigger dog, so for now I'm going to wait for lines to widen or for live lines.

Guchi only got to +225 live on BetDSI after round 2 but it was a good line as he was already taking over by that point.

[Hugo de Naranja]

wtf. Dillion is at -4800 at BM, is he that good?

No. Fighting a bum but Danis has showed no striking thus far

[bjpenn85]

No. Fighting a bum but Danis has showed no striking thus far

Why on gracie Hugo? How will the fight play out?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Danis walking out to Eminem. Bold choice

[Hugo de Naranja]

Why on gracie Hugo? How will the fight play out?

I think Gracie submits MacDonald, potentially from his back with a Triangle or takes Rory's back in a scramble and sinks in an RNC.

[turbozed]

I'm on Gracie too. From +150 to +180. Rory showed no urgency keeping range against Fitch. Gracie may have trouble taking it to the ground, but he should stick on Rory like glue and will try standing back takes and stuff to force the issue.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Why on gracie Hugo? How will the fight play out?

Any bets for you this fight BJ?

[Hugo de Naranja]

I'm on Gracie too. From +150 to +180. Rory showed no urgency keeping range against Fitch. Gracie may have trouble taking it to the ground, but he should stick on Rory like glue and will try standing back takes and stuff to force the issue.

Let's get it Turbo!

[Unwritten Law]

Just need the Dragon and Gracie to finish the night! Glad to hear less of McFartland off air.

[nyrider88]

wow, dillion's ground game is on another level. wonder why conor's ground game still hasn't improved.