UFC on ESPN+ 7: Overeem vs. Oleinik (April 20, 2019)

**bjpenn85** · 04-20-19, 06:42 AM

Originally posted by BELM0NT

I have had a lot experience with lines just like this. It means public is on Fiziez, and its gone to the point were the value is gone, just my opinion, gl either way

We will know in a couple of hours. If Fiziev gets taken down right of the bat and submitted, its pretty hilarious, and just go to show how little statistics actually mean in mma. I mean its a theory i have, it might go straight to hell like any other...

**BELM0NT** · 04-20-19, 06:47 AM

Im just trying to help, I dont think theres a right or wrong answer here. Just from my own account of dog to fav lines. The ones that hit the most hover around value of plus money or even. Fiziez is -135 currently on bovoda. Value is on the other guy in such a close pickem fight. BOL BJPENN

**bjpenn85** · 04-20-19, 06:54 AM

Originally posted by BELM0NT

Im just trying to help, I dont think theres a right or wrong answer here. Just from my own account of dog to fav lines. The ones that hit the most hover around value of plus money or even. Fiziez is -135 currently on bovoda. Value is on the other guy in such a close pickem fight. BOL BJPENN

Might be, have you collected data on all pickems and run a test to see if its true? Its become a mantra in our community, but are you sure, its in fact true, run the data, lets say 6 month, or a year?
Thats the sort of thing im diving into now, so its hard with so many factor, but maybe the numbers can tell us something new that we didnt know.

Good luck man!

**BELM0NT** · 04-20-19, 06:59 AM

I've chased the line enough times and lost to know, thats why waiting at least 30 minutes before fights to get best read of the line. The fight were Montel Jackson lost against Ricky Simon was a prime example. Theres another before that but its been awhile, Sorry fixed fighter, its early, lol

**Shagdogy** · 04-20-19, 07:26 AM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

We will know in a couple of hours. If Fiziev gets taken down right of the bat and submitted, its pretty hilarious, and just go to show how little statistics actually mean in mma. I mean its a theory i have, it might go straight to hell like any other...

Statistics are helpful but I could never use them as the whole picture. When looking at TD and TDD% for example you can’t just look at the numbers you have to look at the specific ways ppl are landing TDs and defending TDs.

You gotta let your eye do some of the work I think.

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 04-20-19, 07:43 AM

glad to see Hugo is on Amedovski. I'm surprised a lot of you guys are on Jotko? Yes, he has the experience edge and has fought better competition but he has also lost 3 in a row and 2 straight KO's. Meanwhile, Amedovski is 8-0 and all wins are via KO. Given that, Jotko seems like a very risky pick.

**Demonata** · 04-20-19, 08:37 AM

its is so early but lets make that money!!!!!!!

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 04-20-19, 08:41 AM

Originally posted by Demonata

its is so early but lets make that money!!!!!!!

love these early UFC cards!!

**Demonata** · 04-20-19, 08:49 AM

Originally posted by JAKEPEAVY21

love these early UFC cards!!

Watching ufc while eating pancakes lol

**bjpenn85** · 04-20-19, 08:52 AM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Statistics are helpful but I could never use them as the whole picture. When looking at TD and TDD% for example you can’t just look at the numbers you have to look at the specific ways ppl are landing TDs and defending TDs.

You gotta let your eye do some of the work I think.

First and foremost yes. Nothing beats a trained eye in mma betting.

**BELM0NT** · 04-20-19, 08:52 AM

passing on 1st fight. gl penn

**spurginobili** · 04-20-19, 09:06 AM

Just started looking at this card

First up, both guys have finished every fight they've been in, so I guess under 1.5 +132

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 04-20-19, 09:24 AM

wow what a KO by Mustafaev!

same spinning kick he hit earlier in the fight

**bjpenn85** · 04-20-19, 09:25 AM

jesus fakking christ mustafaev! forget my theory...what a KO

**PaperTrail07** · 04-20-19, 09:26 AM

Smooooth win-----I mean what #s can you add into an algorithm there LOL.....not hating just saying.....how do you put #s on that lol...

Originally posted by JAKEPEAVY21

wow what a KO by Mustafaev!

same spinning kick he hit earlier in the fight

**HurlSweatPants** · 04-20-19, 09:27 AM

That first one touched his chin, surprised he didn't go out on that. Good early win on the under, BOL fellas.

**Demonata** · 04-20-19, 09:28 AM

Michal Oleksiejczuk time!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

**PaperTrail07** · 04-20-19, 09:29 AM

On over 1.5 and the dog next fight -lets hope that takedown is there ,,,,,,

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 04-20-19, 09:31 AM

ok no action on these next few fights good time to go to breakfast and the grocery store

**THE_LOCKSMITH** · 04-20-19, 09:42 AM

**PaperTrail07** · 04-20-19, 09:43 AM

WOW.....I knew he was aggressive but JESUS lol 0-2

**Demonata** · 04-20-19, 09:46 AM

That was too easy. I love free money. Knocked his bitch ass out!!!!!!1

**Hugo de Naranja** · 04-20-19, 09:58 AM

Originally posted by JAKEPEAVY21

glad to see Hugo is on Amedovski. I'm surprised a lot of you guys are on Jotko? Yes, he has the experience edge and has fought better competition but he has also lost 3 in a row and 2 straight KO's. Meanwhile, Amedovski is 8-0 and all wins are via KO. Given that, Jotko seems like a very risky pick.

Jotko could win but I've got to see it to believe it. Seems like his confidence and chin might be shot.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 04-20-19, 10:01 AM

Originally posted by Demonata

That was too easy. I love free money. Knocked his bitch ass out!!!!!!1

Nice hit Demon! Nice to see a big win for Poland.

**Demonata** · 04-20-19, 10:01 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Jotko could win but I've got to see it to believe it. Seems like his confidence and chin might be shot.

Hugo you see that last fight? That was badass!!!!!!

**Demonata** · 04-20-19, 10:02 AM

betting small on tybura just .01 bitcoin which is like $53.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 04-20-19, 10:02 AM

Added:
Evloev -3.5 (-180) 2.7u to win 2u
Oliynik+Overeem Under 1.5 (-130) 1.3u to win 1u
Oliynik ITD (+300) .75u

Added Hedge(s):
Pavlovich Decision (+284) 1u
Da Silva Submission (+450) .5u

**Hugo de Naranja** · 04-20-19, 10:03 AM

Originally posted by Demonata

Hugo you see that last fight? That was badass!!!!!!

Yeah that was sweet! Olek's chin and technical counterpunching were the difference.

**Demonata** · 04-20-19, 10:03 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Nice hit Demon! Nice to see a big win for Poland.

Thanks man. I love his striking! I think reason i hit it is it's too early to get drunk and do dumb bets haha.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 04-20-19, 10:07 AM

Added Hedge:
Choi KO/TKO (+525) 1u

**Demonata** · 04-20-19, 10:19 AM

tybura you bum!!!!!!!!

**spurginobili** · 04-20-19, 10:21 AM

That works - had won't go distance

Looked like a decision for sure after rd 1

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 04-20-19, 10:22 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Jotko could win but I've got to see it to believe it. Seems like his confidence and chin might be shot.

Yep agreed...I wouldn't lay chalk in this scenario though.

**BELM0NT** · 04-20-19, 10:40 AM

Aliev next

**Demonata** · 04-20-19, 10:46 AM

lets gooooooooooooooooooooo. thanks hugo for the pick. I totally tailed you on it. Thanks buddy.