UFC on ESPN 2: Barboza vs. Gaethje (March 30, 2019)

[PaperTrail07]

Absolute WAR.......

I like:Hermansson, Yusuff, (Borg -points), Barzola GL fellas......Main event is a tough call for me...

Pretty busy again this week. Who are people liking? I'm hyped for the Main Event. Should be a war.

[PaperTrail07]

Also probably take Meer +170 Vs Holland....

[HurlSweatPants]

Absolute WAR.......

I like:Hermansson, Yusuff, (Borg -points), Barzola GL fellas......Main event is a tough call for me...

What's your edge on Hermansson just curious? I was leaning Branch initially, then I was leaning WontGTD, now I am just completely off the fight and moved on.

[PaperTrail07]

When Branch advances he will be delt a strike or JH will tie up.....I also feel the win over Santos was lucky for Branch and people are too high on him..Hermannson is more athletic can move and can eat a punch....Branch simply is getting older and not that diverse....will be surprised if he folds up Hermannson and that's his way to win IMO....

What's your edge on Hermansson just curious? I was leaning Branch initially, then I was leaning WontGTD, now I am just completely off the fight and moved on.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Can anyone direct me to Sabina Mazo's last two LFA fights against Sinn and Yariwake? Can't find them anywhere.

Try Youku.com.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Gaethje is gonna do what he do best close the distance and trade, no space for leg kicks, theres always room for spining back kick tho its gonna be a great fight

Got Gaethje +135

I like Live Betting Gaethje rather than pre betting him here. I think Barboza wins R1 then slows down as Gaethje pressures.

[Hugo de Naranja]

When Branch advances he will be delt a strike or JH will tie up.....I also feel the win over Santos was lucky for Branch and people are too high on him..Hermannson is more athletic can move and can eat a punch....Branch simply is getting older and not that diverse....will be surprised if he folds up Hermannson and that's his way to win IMO....

I lean JH too but I think Branch’s path to victory is out grappling the Swede.

[Shagdogy]

I bet Craig at +175. That’s it so far.

I think Kenney is a tough matchup for Borg. He will force Borg to win this fight via standup and we’ve never seen him do it in the UFC (maybe ever). Kenney also has more power in his strikes, though I admit he’s slower. Still for me the line should be much closer.

Picking Barzola over Aguilar but not sure I’m confident enough to bet it. Barzola is faster, better wrestler, very good cardio, and durability up to the task so far. Aguilar’s no joke though and he has more power - seems to hurt and cut a lot of guys.

Two leans that I need to dive into more are Holland and Barboza. I don’t think highly of Meerschaert but I’ve been burned by him before. Fact is if he can’t finish he generally folds. Holland went the distance with Thiago Santos on late notice up a weight class. I feel like he outworks Meerschaert for a late finish.

And Barboza is just so fast and so crisp that if this fight is gonna be a standup war you just HAVE to favor him even though we all love Gaethje. Gaethje is just much too hittable, and always has been even against lower competition, to hang in a striking match with Barboza. And if Gaethje goes to his wrestling are we certain it will work? Prior to getting pummeled at the hands of Khabib and Lee, Barboza’s TDD was considered pretty good. Can Gaethje wrestle like those guys?

[The HOFF]

Try Youku.com.

No luck. You'd think a smaller org would want the exposure on youtube.

[JerseyRobby]

As somebody who has bet on MJ in the past just something I've noticed that is frustrating and I put this out as a warning to anyone who wants to bet on him. Michael Johnson for a wrestler is taken down rather frequently and more impotantly NEVER shows inprovement in getting off his back. Emmett is a team Alpha Male guy with a wrestling background so his game plan has to be take down MJ submit him or grind out a boring decision. Considering he just got his face caved in I doubt he wants to sling with a guy who KOed Poirier. So this is where it's frustrating watching Johnson. Everyone in the world knows this but his fight IQ seems so low and his lack of desire to fix his glaring weakness is absent which will allow it to happen.

[Hugo de Naranja]

No luck. You'd think a smaller org would want the exposure on youtube.

You can buy the fight card for $3 here. http://www.axs.tv/buy-axs-tv-program...fights-online/

[Sanity Check]

.

Good breakdown of the main event.

[Shagdogy]

Added Kenney at +250 so now I have him and Craig +175.

[Teem]

Added Kenney at +250 so now I have him and Craig +175.

I was thinking Kenney too. But I might play Nzechukwu. What do you see in Craig?

[PaperTrail07]

I think JH wins the Grapple.....maybe I respect JH too much and discredit Branch too much.....but I see JH controlling the fight and Branch walking forward-but not much else....

I lean JH too but I think Branch’s path to victory is out grappling the Swede.

[Shagdogy]

I was thinking Kenney too. But I might play Nzechukwu. What do you see in Craig?

I don't have Chuk as a particularly powerful striker, at least with his hands. He has good length, but he's not that much of a threat to just take you out ASAP unless he can land a big knee or power you to the mat and get top position.

I don't think he will willingly look to go to the mat, which leaves him kind of point fighting on the feet. His TDD hasn't been great and Craig's TDs actually looked improved in his last fight. He's clearly the better BJJ guy by far. Chuk is a white belt and he thrives off the Derrick Lewis "just stand up" approach from bottom where he rolls to his stomach, gives his back up willingly, and uses his size to just stand. That won't last forever. I think Craig is by far his toughest fight. Chuk might be a can crusher. He has obvious physical gifts and potential, but from a skill standpoint he's not THAT far ahead yet. Craig was the value side IMO.

[PaperTrail07]

Little Lotto Tickets Boys

#1) UFC Fighting
Selection : E. Barboza 3/30/2019 6:35PM - (PST) Money Line -135 for Game

#2) UFC Fighting
Selection : J. Hermansson 3/30/2019 6:50PM - (PST) Money Line -130 for Game

#3) UFC Fighting
Selection : S. Yusuff 3/30/2019 4:05PM - (PST) Money Line -135 for Game

#4) UFC Fighting
Selection : R. Borg 3/30/2019 1:35PM - (PST) Money Line -275 for Game

#5) UFC Fighting
Selection : J. Emmett 3/30/2019 5:35PM - (PST) Money Line -105 for Game

#6) UFC Fighting
Selection : E. Barzola 3/30/2019 2:35PM - (PST) Money Line -120 for Game

Risking : 50.00 To Win : 1,258.35 USD

[Shagdogy]

I think JH wins the Grapple.....maybe I respect JH too much and discredit Branch too much.....but I see JH controlling the fight and Branch walking forward-but not much else....

It all depends on if Branch can get JH on his back. He's going to have to get JH down and keep him there 2 of 3 rounds, and then if he does lose one round, he's going to have to not get finished. If it stays standing, he won't get finished, but if JH gets on top of Branch he can have him looking for a way out with his heavy top game and very solid GnP.

The kicker for me is that I saw signs of quit in Branch in the Rockhold fight and again in the Cannonier fight. Compare that to JH who had every reason to look for a way out vs. Leites but persisted and got the late finish. If you have to pick a guy in this fight, you want the one like JH. I just put a play on him at -125. Missed the early value but still think he's playable.

[PaperTrail07]

It will be difficult for kennedy to land shots IMO....Craig is faster and comes from wild angles....and IMO has more skills overall.....Kennedy make KO him upon entry, but otherwise I feel OK taking the + $ here....on board fellas.....plus....Jitters could come on.....maybe RNC craig?

I don't have Chuk as a particularly powerful striker, at least with his hands. He has good length, but he's not that much of a threat to just take you out ASAP unless he can land a big knee or power you to the mat and get top position.

I don't think he will willingly look to go to the mat, which leaves him kind of point fighting on the feet. His TDD hasn't been great and Craig's TDs actually looked improved in his last fight. He's clearly the better BJJ guy by far. Chuk is a white belt and he thrives off the Derrick Lewis "just stand up" approach from bottom where he rolls to his stomach, gives his back up willingly, and uses his size to just stand. That won't last forever. I think Craig is by far his toughest fight. Chuk might be a can crusher. He has obvious physical gifts and potential, but from a skill standpoint he's not THAT far ahead yet. Craig was the value side IMO.

[Teem]

I'm on Perez and Holland but I want one more play. I was thinking Karolina, Yusuff, or Hermansson. What do you guys think out of those three for one more pick?

[PaperTrail07]

Agree... JH shows a lot of heart and will to win....and I don't think Branch will get him on his back....and if so JH tie up skills are solid on the floor....I also feel like JH takes advantage of position better....Branch slip or takes a hit JH can take it to the ground and submit him as well.....JH is the play...Branch will need a KO to win....

It all depends on if Branch can get JH on his back. He's going to have to get JH down and keep him there 2 of 3 rounds, and then if he does lose one round, he's going to have to not get finished. If it stays standing, he won't get finished, but if JH gets on top of Branch he can have him looking for a way out with his heavy top game and very solid GnP.

The kicker for me is that I saw signs of quit in Branch in the Rockhold fight and again in the Cannonier fight. Compare that to JH who had every reason to look for a way out vs. Leites but persisted and got the late finish. If you have to pick a guy in this fight, you want the one like JH. I just put a play on him at -125. Missed the early value but still think he's playable.

[PaperTrail07]

High on Holland huh....OK OK.....taking the dog here....seeing if Holland can make that step-betting against it.....GL....

I'm on Perez and Holland but I want one more play. I was thinking Karolina, Yusuff, or Hermansson. What do you guys think out of those three for one more pick?

[Teem]

High on Holland huh....OK OK.....taking the dog here....seeing if Holland can make that step-betting against it.....GL....

Well not necessarily high on Holland. I keep reading what everybody thinks on Sherdog and it's causing me to go back and forth. Not going with my gut has been messing me up alot these past few cards. My gut tells me Holland. And I have no issues taking Perez. My gut also tells me Karolina, Yusuff, and Hermansson but I only want to play 3 picks for this card.

[PaperTrail07]

My only worry w the Branch fight is Branch just coming in HEAAVY an leaning on him all fight.....doubt he would get a finish....but could earn the w by not losing and flat lean and lay....

[Teem]

I also thought Mazo was at good value to beat Moroz.

[PaperTrail07]

I respect that...he could cruise-paper advantages-just tough for me to lay near a 2:1 on a guy I haven't seen much from--people could be right...think pick I'm leaning to and liking most is Yusuff....haven't seen much there either but only -134/-140....I'm with you on the other 2....we lost the JH fight it will be a very boring leaning slow loss.....the WORST....I just don't see him KO JH....lets GO....

Well not necessarily high on Holland. I keep reading what everybody thinks on Sherdog and it's causing me to go back and forth. Not going with my gut has been messing me up alot these past few cards. My gut tells me Holland. And I have no issues taking Perez. My gut also tells me Karolina, Yusuff, and Hermansson but I only want to play 3 picks for this card.

[Teem]

Or I guess I could take Holland/Meer FSR2 since it's the same value as Holland's ML.

[PaperTrail07]

For sure.....any thought on Emmett MJ? I'm simply betting on a prepared return from JE....

Or I guess I could take Holland/Meer FSR2 since it's the same value as Holland's ML.

[UncleChael]

For sure.....any thought on Emmett MJ? I'm simply betting on a prepared return from JE....

I think Emmett is the play but what do I know.

[PaperTrail07]

I think Emmett is the play but what do I know.

[Shagdogy]

I think Emmett is the play but what do I know.

I need to cap this but I am very fond of getting a superior striker who is both longer and faster as MJ should be here. It will prob be MJ or nothing for me. Off the top of my head it seems like MJ wins unless Emmett can break him. Maybe one of those fights where MJ gets out To a good start but Emmett settles in and the fight tightens up.

[Shagdogy]

High on Holland huh....OK OK.....taking the dog here....seeing if Holland can make that step-betting against it.....GL....

I have Holland as a clear favorite but I’ve been burned badly by Meerschaert before so I’m tentative. FDGTD might be the better bet. Meerschaert is a major glass cannon and Holland has majority stoppage victories.

[TPowell]

Have some things I did earlier this week. Formatting is funky so tough to post


Holland vs Gerald M

Gerald is primarily a grappler but his wrestling is average at best at the UFC level. He tends to struggle early in fights and then turn it around. He is dangerous from top or bottom with subs while being a much less threatening finisher striking.
Gerald can be a tough guy to finish via strikes and his BJJ is pretty solid which makes him a tough out. He's dangerous on the ground but also reckless at times. He has a BJJ edge over Holland for sure, but Holland should be able to pick away striking.Holland is another durable guy that has some really long and quick striking to pair with his athletic movement on the feet. The one issue is he doesn't have much power in his strikes which leads to his fights mostly going later on against quality opp. Holland should be much better at striking at range here but Gerald could make this fight ugly in a clinch war trying to get the TD. If he gets it, he may be able to lock up a sub or pound Holland out on the mat. This fight is mostly striker vs grappler but Holland is the better athlete and probably improving at a faster rate. I think Gerald is probably sub or bust here due to his aggressiveness on the mat but Holland has an outside shot at a DEC as well



Moraes vs Yusuff

Both guys should be looking to strike here with Moraes having more high level experience inside the cage but bringing in a big cardio deficiency which results in him losing R3's in virtually every fight he's fought in. He hasn't been finished by strikes in R3 but has been subbed twice. He has very good athletic ability and Muay Thai style striking but he's facing another solid striker in Yusuff. Yusuff impressed with a finish of Suman Mohktarian in his UFC debut but we know those guys are frauds and Yusuff's competition level has been pretty low overall. He was also finished via slam/strikes which makes me question his durability. I believe Moraes's experiences lasting to R3 with guys like Marlon Moraes and Zabit will be the difference here. I think he has a path to victory ITD with his striking and I also think he could do enough in the first two rounds to win a decision. I think Yusuff COULD be competitive early but probably has to have a big round three to win the fight and may need a finish there against a durable fighter.

[TPowell]

Hermansson vs Branch

Branch tends to make fights ugly and try to win that way using his physical strength and ability in the clinch to get TD's at times as well. He's solid on top with good BJJ but he's slowing down physically and his top control against Cannonier didn't look good as he was able to get up eventually finish him on the feet. On the feet both guys are rather harmless at range as Branch hardly throws and Hermansson is mostly a movement and volume striker. Hermansson has a lot of finishes as of late but all 4 have been on the mat and 3 have been GnP stoppages. Branch has folded a little bit as of late but having Rockhold on top of you is quite a bit different than Hermansson. I think Branch can probably survive on his back against Hermansson as he's mostly beaten guys with no ground game or guys that have were already retired basically. Branch did finish Santos via strikes but Santos had a poor chin at 185 and Hermansson is much more durable and fights with a ton of heart.



De La Rosa vs Perez

Perez has two passes to go with 8 TD's and seems more focused on working instead of improving position which could be an issue against competent grapplers (has only submitted weak grapplers like De Tomas, Gray, etc) He should be able to get TD's when necessary as he's the better wrestler but he'll have trouble finishing the fight on the mat. He does have decent power and isn't afraid to throw down as well. DLR hasn't fought top flight competition outside of Elliott who mauled him on the ground but I don't believe Perez will do the same as the skill difference is less and DLR was on short notice. DLR moves well on the feet and has quick hands/good counter striking which could keep Perez at bay, but Perez could also walk right through the shots as they don't have much power. Perez wants to wrestle and in fights when he can't (0/3 against Torres), tends to turn it into a slugfest. If he can get the TD here, I think this FGTD but if not it could get dicey

[TPowell]

Aguilar vs Rodriguez

Aguilar on around 1 weeks notice and struggles against stronger girls due to her wrestling heavy style. Her TD's are almost exclusively clinch TD's now unless she can catch a kick. Aguilar's striking is poor even though she does press forward and set a high pace at times. She's very hittable and at her age that is very tough to overcome. Her wrestling is also very poor as of late going 0/6 against Esquibel on TD's and winning in the clinch ALONE. Rod's a striker by nature and is very aggressive and physical. She demonstrated the ability to get up from bottom against the cage but could struggle without the cage there to help her up. She throws a lot of leg kicks generally which could be dangerous if Aguilar can catch one and take her down. If so, Aguilar isn't a threat to finish the fight but could grind out a round or two. Aguilar's very tough and Rodriguez has finishes over almost exclusively cans outside of her DWCS fight. This fight seems like it should go 3 rounds but could depend on Aguilar's durability which is somewhat scary



Moroz vs Mazo

Mazo is a bit of an unknown with only six career fights but has shown competent kickboxing and good cardio past the third round before. Her ground game and TDD are an unknown but should be fine considering her camp (Kings MMA). Mazo has a couple head kick KO's against lower end competition but mostly decision wins and like to mix in kicks with her jab to keep opponents at bay. Moroz has a similar style of striking to keep fighters away from her. Moroz's super low striking accuracy is generally due to her wanting to avoid girls coming into the pocket with her. That is one of the reasons why the Hill fight was so high volume as Hill is more aggressive getting into the pocket. This fight should be slow paced as both girls want to work from range. Its hard to know if Mazo's technique is good enough to do much against a defensive style fighter like Moroz but Moroz doesn't throw enough to win fights herself. Moroz ITD wins are armbars which gives me pause on FGTD but her wrestling is virtually non-existent and I think the standup should be close enough to not tempt her to shoot.