UFC on ESPN+ 3: Blachowicz vs. Santos (February 23, 2019)

[Hugo de Naranja]

Still relatively new to following MMA and don't know most of these guys.

One post above mentioned late replacements in a couple matches.

Do last-minute replacement guys usually lose, with little prep time or whatever?

I'd say they lose more often than full prep time fighters partly due to lack of fight specific planning and partly due to not being in top shape (gassing out earlier than usual etc)

[turbozed]

I agree, i also think Carmouche will win, as narrow as the decision might be, i doubt that Pudilova can stay vertical the first two round, last round coasting, no judge will give the 3.round a 10-8 although she might put in on Courmouche at the end, if you have Pudilova you will probably stand up and shout to the TV; common you russian p, you can do it, push forward whatever. In the end it wont matter 29-28 Carmouche imo.

If you check out how Pudilova looked in Round 3 against Moras, it's more likely that Carmouche puts it on Pudilova in Rd3 than the other way around. Even Moras with her shitty TDs got her down late.

[Shagdogy]

Not loving this card from a betting standpoint at all. A few fights look okay:
* Polo Reyes
* Blachowicz
* Robertson sub
* Maybe Grant small

Not really much else so far. Prazeres for a parlay piece. Need to get to Carmouche/Pudilova. Maybe Carmouche. Underwhelming card overall.

[Shagdogy]

If you check out how Pudilova looked in Round 3 against Moras, it's more likely that Carmouche puts it on Pudilova in Rd3 than the other way around. Even Moras with her shitty TDs got her down late.

Man I forgot about this. Moras has horrendous TDs. I need to cap this fight ASAP I was ignoring it. Thanks for the reminder. Moras’s body has the structural integrity of chewed bubble gum. If she’s landing TDs... that’s bad.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Man I forgot about this. Moras has horrendous TDs. I need to cap this fight ASAP I was ignoring it. Thanks for the reminder. Moras’s body has the structural integrity of chewed bubble gum. If she’s landing TDs... that’s bad.

I like Carmouche here as well.

[UncleChael]

Who ya got for this card Unc?

Thiago Santos ... Duhhh. Nice call on Ngannou last week btw.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Thiago Santos ... Duhhh. Nice call on Ngannou last week btw.

Thanks man. Main event should be a banger.

[bjpenn85]

Not loving this card from a betting standpoint at all. A few fights look okay:
* Polo Reyes
* Blachowicz
* Robertson sub
* Maybe Grant small

Not really much else so far. Prazeres for a parlay piece. Need to get to Carmouche/Pudilova. Maybe Carmouche. Underwhelming card overall.

A whole lot better than last card. Prezares will win, Yan will win, i think oleksiej will wether the storm, there also some props which are good.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think this card is flying under the radar. Some guaranteed action matchups and some top prospects that hardcore fans should be excited about.

[bjpenn85]

I think this card is flying under the radar. Some guaranteed action matchups and some top prospects that hardcore fans should be excited about.

Maybe Marcus R.De lima also is worth a bet with Struve dec as a hedge, anyone have a good read of this matchup?

[Shagdogy]

A whole lot better than last card. Prezares will win, Yan will win, i think oleksiej will wether the storm, there also some props which are good.

I give you Prazeres and Yan. Maybe Olek but he’s coming off PED and he is hittable so less confident there. That’s kinda my point though I don’t get very excited when big favorites are gonna win, from a betting standpoint.

[bjpenn85]

I give you Prazeres and Yan. Maybe Olek but he’s coming off PED and he is hittable so less confident there. That’s kinda my point though I don’t get very excited when big favorites are gonna win, from a betting standpoint.

I got less money on olek, since im not that confident in him, agreed. I prefer large favourites with large advantages in all areas. What i hate is a card where all fights are 50/50, and i need to think a lot, and hope that the underdogs cash.

I see opportunities tomorrow as well with the handicaps, hopefully they dont refuse to offer handicap on selected matchups.

[PaperTrail07]

Its pretty safe to say you cant bet on Villante in prague....Olek will right the ship and put his name back on the map ...This seems like a solid matchup but its favors Olek huge IMO....hes just a little better in every area and will slowly take over and possibly finish this thing......

I got less money on olek, since im not that confident in him, agreed. I prefer large favourites with large advantages in all areas. What i hate is a card where all fights are 50/50, and i need to think a lot, and hope that the underdogs cash.

I see opportunities tomorrow as well with the handicaps, hopefully they dont refuse to offer handicap on selected matchups.

[PaperTrail07]

Really w this card your dealing with a lot of unknowns....new guys....overseas hype in organizations ive never heard of....fights like
Grant/Pedersoli
Prazares/Naur
Hadzo/Reyes
Fishgold/Teymur......I mean Naur looks ok....Reyes fights 1 time a year lol...Hadzo tough....

Tying to stick w guys I know have solid skills and are looking to turn the corner....
Ankalev and Olek both are skilled and will bring it....Ank got miracle subbed by the jew bear and looked good after so I'm sure he will bring it...

I got less money on olek, since im not that confident in him, agreed. I prefer large favourites with large advantages in all areas. What i hate is a card where all fights are 50/50, and i need to think a lot, and hope that the underdogs cash.

I see opportunities tomorrow as well with the handicaps, hopefully they dont refuse to offer handicap on selected matchups.

[Hugo de Naranja]

@Papes I think it’s Bearjew not Jew Bear lol

[PaperTrail07]

6 or 1 half dozen LOL.....had a good laugh at that lol...noted lol...

@Papes I think it’s Bearjew not Jew Bear lol

[bjpenn85]

Really w this card your dealing with a lot of unknowns....new guys....overseas hype in organizations ive never heard of....fights like
Grant/Pedersoli
Prazares/Naur
Hadzo/Reyes
Fishgold/Teymur......I mean Naur looks ok....Reyes fights 1 time a year lol...Hadzo tough....

Tying to stick w guys I know have solid skills and are looking to turn the corner....
Ankalev and Olek both are skilled and will bring it....Ank got miracle subbed by the jew bear and looked good after so I'm sure he will bring it...

All of the fights you mentioned except prezares are obviously garbage to bet on, imo. Naurdiev is primarily a striker, got manhandled of a guy which doesnt have prezares wrestling or bjj. Its a mismatch.. its hard coming in on short notice,in your debut, unproven, weak ground game, no experience in UFC, meeting a top10 fighter in a pretty difficult division.

As far as i can see -130 inside distance pretty sweet. I dont think the line reflect the bad stylistic matchup this is for Naurdiev and all the other circumstances surrounding this fight.

I agree there are unknowns, but the knowns means more to me, if you catch my drift paper?

[PaperTrail07]

For sure....some tough calls....

[bjpenn85]

@papes i think it’s bearjew not jew bear lol

haha

[JIBBBY]

Early start time with this event.. Not sure how I feel about that? Early Matinee special..

[JIBBBY]

Prelim write ups!!!



170 lbs.: Michel Prazeres vs. Ismail Naurdiev

Michel Prazeres (26-2) assembled a six-fight win streak in UFC’s Lightweight division, but his repeated inability to make the weight forced him to move back to 170 pounds. He narrowly defeated Zak Cummings in his return, then demolished Bartosz Fabinski in 62 seconds last November.
“Trator” is six inches shorter and 15 years older than “The Austrian Wonderboy.”
Ismail Naurdiev (18-2) scored 11 consecutive finishes in under two rounds after his first professional defeat, only to lose a hard-fought decision to The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): “Brazil” veteran Ismael “Marmota” de Jesus in 2017. He rebounded with a pair of first-round knockouts, one a wheel kick knockout and the other a 36-second stomping.
He steps in for Ramazan Emeev on short notice.
Naurdiev is a terrific young talent, a 22-year-old boasting a terrific wrestling pedigree to go along with his high-flying striking offense. That said, his issues with “Marmota” are worrying. The Brazilian exposed Naurdiev’s issues fighting off the back foot and also managed to drain his gas tank with fairly rudimentary pressure. Prazeres isn’t as big as de Jesus, but he offers a similar blend of aggression and physicality.
Prazeres’ wrestling and pressure nullify the threat of Naurdiev’s kicks, forcing him to rely on his unspectacular hands. Said hands aren’t enough to get Prazeres’ respect or slow down his takedowns, so expect “Trator” to recreate “Marmota’s” efforts with power hooks and brutal grappling.
Prediction: Prazeres via unanimous decision
Related
Coming. Up. Next.


145 lbs.: Daniel Teymur vs. Chris Fishgold

Daniel Teymur (6-2) — brother of David Teymur — racked up six first-round victories to earn a contract in 2017. He’s yet to taste victory in the Octagon, however, gassing out in his debut against Danny Henry and tapping to Julio Arce 11 months later.
He’s got three wins apiece by knockout and submission.
Chris Fishgold (17-2-1) choked out Adam Boussif for the Cage Warriors Lightweight title in 2016 and successfully defended it three times, including two successful defenses in the span of two months. This led to a debut against Calvin Kattar, who put Fishgold away with punches late in the first.
He stands three inches taller than Teymur at 5’8.”
I’m on the fence on whether to write Teymur off as a bust yet; Henry went on to squash one of my top prospects in Hakeem Dawodu and Arce is a damn good fighter in his own right. Still, it’s hard to have faith in a guy with cardio problems against someone in Fishgold who both pushes a furious pace and has the wrestling skill to drag him out of his comfort zone.
Teymur needs the early knockout to win this fight, which is certainly feasible considering Fishgold’s loss to Kattar. It’s unlikely that he lands it before the Brit scores at least one takedown, though, and Teymur doesn’t have the gas tank to survive the grappling wringer Fishgold can put him through. Teymur starts strong, but fades from pressure down the stretch and ultimately taps to a choke.
Prediction: Fishgold via third-round submission

155 lbs.: Rustam Khabilov vs. Diego Ferreira

Rustam Khabilov (23-3) won his first three Octagon bouts, including a “Fight of the Night” decision over Jorge Masvidal, before tapping to Benson Henderson in his first main event. An upset decision loss to Adriano Martins followed, since which he’s won six in a row.
“The Tiger” will give up one inch each of height and reach to Ferreira.
Diego Ferreira (14-2) ran roughshod over Olivier Aubin-Mercier and looked poised to make a legitimate run, only to fail a drug test and miss two years of action. He returned last February with a 118-second beating of Jared Gordon and followed it up by pounding out late replacement Kyle Nelson at UFC 231.
He has submitted six and knocked out three.
Man, remember when Khabilov was exciting? From suplexing Vinc Pichel into the dirt to dropping Masvidal with a wheel kick to the neck, he was must-watch TV before the Henderson loss. I don’t know if gassing against “Bendo” shot his confidence or what, but Khabilov has turned into a gunshy grinder unwilling to even throw real ground-and-pound.
Fortunately for him, that might be enough. He’s a stronger wrestler than Ferreira and is at least competent enough with his hands to survive on the feet until the next double-leg opportunity pops up. As good as Ferreira’s jiu-jitsu is, Khabilov has the top control to steer clear of any danger from the Brazilian’s guard. Ferreira will almost certainly do more damage and make a greater effort to secure the finish, but Khabilov will score enough takedowns and ride out the clock enough to eke out the decision.
Prediction: Khabilov via split decision

155 lbs.: Damir Ismagulov vs. Joel Alvarez

Kazakhstan’s Damir Ismagulov (17-2) rattled off 11 consecutive wins on his way to the Octagon, winning and defending the M-1 Lightweight title along the way. He leaned on his wrestling for his UFC debut, an easy if unspectacular decision over Alex Gorgees in Adelaide.
He will give up two inches of height to “El Fenomeno.”
Joel Alvarez (15-1) started his career undefeated (5-0) before an appearance in M-1, where he suffered a wheel kick KO to Ali Abdulkhalikov. His current 10-fight winning streak includes a triangle finish of Radu Maxim for the AFL Lightweight title in his most recent effort.
Fourteen of his 15 submission wins have come by form of choke.
I haven’t found as much tape of Alvarez as I’d like, but the impression I get is of a marching-style striker with terrific submission skills and iffy wrestling. Unfortunately for him, Ismagulov is perfectly equipped to tear him up. The Kazakh has the kicking prowess to hold his own at range and Alvarez’s striking style opens him up to Ismagulov’s clinch game.
This fight will hit the mat at Ismagulov’s discretion, and though I have issues with his unwillingness to extend himself for the finish, his quality top control is more than enough to keep him safe from “El Fenomeno’s” bottom game. Ismagulov grinds him down in the clinch and from the top to win a clear decision.
Prediction: Ismagulov via unanimous decision


125 lbs.: Gillian Robertson vs. Veronica Macedo

Despite losing to Barb Honchak in the opening round of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 26, Gillian Robertson (5-3) got off to a strong UFC start, submitting castmate Emily Whitmire and prospect Molly McCann in succession. She went on to meet “Contender Series:” Brazil alumnus Mayra Bueno Silva, who caught her in an armbar from guard in the waning seconds of the round.
She has scored three submissions as a professional, three of them armbars.
Veronica Macedo (5-2-1) debuted in UFC as a Bantamweight in 2016, replacing Germaine de Randamie against Ashlee Evans-Smith and succumbing to ground-and-pound in the third. Injury kept her out of action until May 2018, when she lost a decision to the debuting Andrea Lee but earned “Fight of the Night” in the process.
She’ll have a one-inch reach advantage and one-inch height disadvantage on fight night.
Macedo has been soundly out-grappled in her two UFC fights to date. She is now being rewarded by fighting another grappler.
Trial by fire, I suppose.
Robertson is the stronger wrestler of the two by a decent margin and Macedo, though tricky on the mat, isn’t good enough to make me think she can she can win this off of her back the way Silva did. This fight lasts until Robertson decides to bring it to the mat, at which point either a submission or ground-and-pound finish is a matter of time.
Prediction: Robertson by first-round submission
Related
Coming. Up. Next.


170 lbs.: Carlo Pedersoli Jr. vs. Dwight Grant

Carlo Pedersoli (11-2) scored a wild back-and-forth split decision over UFC vet Nicolas Dalby in April 2018, then made his short-notice UFC debut a month later with another entertaining split decision over Brad Scott. “Cowboy” Oliveira proved too much for him in his sophomore appearance, knocking out “Semento” cold in just 39 seconds.
He’ll give up two inches of height and one inch of reach to “The Body Snatcher.”
Dwight Grant (8-2) torched Tyler Hill on the Contender Series, setting himself up as a huge favorite in his UFC debut against Zak Ottow, but an inability to pull the trigger left Grant on the wrong end of a controversial split decision. He tried to bounce back quickly by facing Chance Rencountre on short notice last month, but was not cleared by the athletic commission because of an eye injury.
Six of his eight professional wins have come by form of knockout.
This fight boils down to how willing Grant is to throw volume. He’s not much of a technician, but he hits hard enough to punish Pedersoli’s defensive lapses with finality. If he lets “Semento” work with the same impunity, though, Pedersoli will rack up points with his long-range kicking.
Beyond the output issue, Grant is predictable with his counters, and his tendency to lean back at the waist rather than use footwork leaves him open to Pedersoli’s sneaky wrestling game. Unless Grant can land his right hand early and often, Pedersoli will simply outwork him on the feet and on the ground on his way to a decision win.
Prediction: Pedersoli via unanimous decision
Related
The UFC Prague Poster Is Blue


155 lbs.: Damir Hadzovic vs. Polo Reyes

Damir Hadzovic (12-4) debuted in UFC with a knockout loss to Mairbek Taisumov, but scored a stunning come-from-behind knee knockout of Marcin Held to earn “Performance of the Night” and even up his Octagon record. He went on to drop a unanimous decision to Alan Patrick and narrowly edge Nick Hein by split decision in the latter’s native Germany.
He has finished nine opponents overall, six of them by form of knockout.
Polo Reyes (8-4) opened his Octagon career undefeated (3-0), including bonus-winning knockouts of Cezar Arzamendia and Dong Hyun Ma, before running afoul of James Vick in 2017. He returned with another bonus-winning finish, a 60-second thrashing of Matt Frevola, but has been out of action for more than one year because of issues with United States Anti-Doping Agency (USADA).
Three of his six knockout victories have come in the first round.
This has “post-fight bonus” written all over it. Neither man cares about anything but smashing whoever has the misfortune of standing in front of him, and putting them both in the same cage all but guarantees a slobber knocker.
Albeit a very short slobber knocker.
Hadzovic is a tough cookie — that uppercut from Taisumov looked fit to kill a man, but the Bosnian was still arguably conscious. Reyes can thump, though, and against a willing striker without the absurd length advantage Vick had, I expect him to find the mark more times than even Hadzovic’s jaw can withstand. They slug it out for a few minutes until Reyes’ right hand shuts the lights off.
Prediction: Reyes by first-round knockout

[Shagdogy]

Its pretty safe to say you cant bet on Villante in prague....Olek will right the ship and put his name back on the map ...This seems like a solid matchup but its favors Olek huge IMO....hes just a little better in every area and will slowly take over and possibly finish this thing......

Except Olek is hittable and has been rocked before. I agree he has a lot of advantages but not all of them. Chin and pure power prob go to Villante and those can turn a LHW fight on a dime. Villante hasn’t landed a KO win in a while though.

[Thor4140]

Liz fights to a lot of decisions. Beware of all semi close rounds going to the home cooking.

[turbozed]

Liz fights to a lot of decisions. Beware of all semi close rounds going to the home cooking.

Agree, if this fight stays standing and they are close rounds, I fully expect the rounds to go to Pudilova.

Luckily, Pudilova has been easy to take down and has shown zero ability off her back. Even a biased judge will have to give top control rounds to Liz.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Agree, if this fight stays standing and they are close rounds, I fully expect the rounds to go to Pudilova.

Luckily, Pudilova has been easy to take down and has shown zero ability off her back. Even a biased judge will have to give top control rounds to Liz.

Exactly

[Hugo de Naranja]

Will have bets posted tonight. Working through everything now.

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on ESPN+ 3: Santos vs. Blachowicz Picks:
Damir Ismagulov Round 3 TKO (Punches)
Rustam Khabilov Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Michel Prazeres Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Marco Polo Reyes Round 1 KO (Punches)
Gillian Robertson Round 1 Submission (Armbar)
Chris Fishgold Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Dwight Grant Round 1 KO (Punches)
Magomed Ankalaev Round 3 TKO (Punches)
Petr Yan Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Liz Carmouche Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Michal Oleksiejczuk Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Marcos Rogerio de Lima Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Thiago Santos Round 2 TKO (Body Kick and Punches)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on ESPN+ 3: Santos vs. Blachowicz

ESPN 2 Prelims:

Fight #1: Ismagulov vs. Alvarez (DEBUT)
Ismagulov KO/TKO (+250) 1u
Ismagulov Round 3 (+950) .25u

Hedge:
Alvarez Submission (+535) .5u

Fight #2: Khabilov vs. Ferreira
Parlays

Hedge(s):
Ferreira ITD (+350) .5u
Ferreira Submission (+610) .25u

Fight #3: Prazeres vs. Naurdiev (DEBUT)
Parlays

Fight #4: Polo Reyes vs. Hadzovic
Polo Reyes+Hadzovic Won’t Go Distance (+130) 1u
Polo Reyes KO/TKO (+275) .5u

Hedge:
Hadzovic ITD (+325) .5u

Fight #5: Robertson vs. Macedo
Robertson (-135) 1.35u to win 1u
Robertson+Macedo Won’t Go Distance (-117) 1.75u to win 1.5u
Robertson ITD (+168) 1u

Fight #6: Fishgold vs. Teymur
Fishgold+Teymur Won’t Go Distance (-120) 2.4u to win 2u

Hedge(s):
Teymur KO/TKO (+745) .25u
Teymur Round 1 (+1000) .25u

Fight #7: Grant vs. Pedersoli
No Bet

Main Card:

Fight #8: Ankalaev vs. Farias de Abreu (DEBUT)
Ankalaev -3.5 (-150) 1.5u to win 1u
Ankalaev+Farias de Abreu Won’t Go Distance (-140) 1.4u to win 1u
Ankalaev Decision (+414) .5u
Ankalaev Round 3 (+950) .5u

Fight #9: Yan vs. Dodson
Yan -3.5 (+100) 2.5u
Yan KO/TKO (+515) .5u
Yan Round 3 (+1575) .25u

Hedge:
Dodson KO/TKO (+1015) .75u

Fight #10: Carmouche vs. Pudilova
Carmouche (-150) 3u to win 2u

Fight #11: Oleksiejczuk vs. Villante
No Bet

Fight #12: Rogerio de Lima vs. Struve
Parlays

Hedge:
Struve Submission (+325) 1u

Fight #13: Santos vs. Blachowicz
Santos Round 2 (+675) .5u
Santos Decision (+735) .5u

Straight Parlays:
Fishgold/Yan (-102) 1.02u to win 1u
Ismagulov/Ankalaev (+101) 1u
Ismagulov/Fishgold (+110) 1u
Fishgold/Robertson/Ankalaev/Yan/Rogerio De Lima (+690) .5u
Ismagulov/Fishgold/Robertson/Ankalaev/Yan/Rogerio De Lima (+1006) .25u

Prop Parlays:
Ankalaev+Farias de Abreu WGD/Yan (-108) 1.08u to win 1u
Ismagulov -3.5/Prazeres -3.5 (+120) 1.5u
Robertson/Carmouche+Pudilova GD (+121) 1u
Yan+Dodson GD/Rogerio de Lima+Struve WGD (+126) 2u
Ankalaev+Farias de Abreu WGD/Rogerio de Lima+Struve WGD (+140) 1.5u
Ismagulov -3.5/Khabilov/Fishgold ITD (+393) .25u
Fishgold+Teymur WGD/Polo Reyes+Hadzovic WGD/Robertson+Macedo WGD/Ankalaev+Farias de Abreu WGD (+558) .5u
Prazeres Decision/Polo Reyes KO/Grant ITD/Oleksiejczuk ITD (+16590) .2u

Full Card Props:
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+411) .75u
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+1156) .25u
Over 9.5 Fights Go Distance (+3425) .1u
Over 10.5 Fights Go Distance (+16800) .1u

Multi-Event Parlays:
Yan/Askren (-113) 4.52u to win 4u
Ankalaev+Farias de Abreu WGD/Magomedsharipov (+108) 1.25u
Yan/Magomedsharipov (+111) 1u
Ismagulov/Magomedsharipov (+114) 1u

[JAKEPEAVY21]

probably gonna do a parlay with Prazeres, Yan and Fishgold.

then I like Santos by ko in the main, probably sprinkle a bit on round 1 and round 2 as well.

[UncleChael]

T H I A G O S A N T O S #TellEmUncleChaelSentyaaa
F I G H T D A Y, GOOD LUCK EVERYBODY

[Demonata]

good morning. coffee time.

[RussianMike]

I really like Carmouche in this spot. Her strength and grappling should carry the day since Pudilova has no ground game. Jumped on -125 but still think there's value at -140.

Ok. Think she can finish ITD? Been a while

[A1pha]

2u - Robertson -165
2U - Carmouche -135
2U - Santos -120
1U - Grant +135
1U - Diego Ferreira +115
1u - Struve -115
1u - Ankalaev,Prazeres,Fishgold +157
1u - Oleksiejczuk -205

[Hugo de Naranja]

2u - Robertson -165
2U - Carmouche -135
2U - Santos -120
1U - Grant +135
1U - Diego Ferreira +115
1u - Struve -115
1u - Ankalaev,Prazeres,Fishgold +157
1u - Oleksiejczuk -205

Best of luck sir!

[A1pha]

Thanks Hugo same to you. Khabliov got saved in rd 1