Well we finally arrive at this historical event. And to tell you the truth, from a betting perspective, I not exactly enamored with the betting odds for these fights. I think there will be some great fights to watch, but not much that stands out to me as for betting. But I'm a degenerate so I will be more than I'm supposed to anyways!
Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir
I have more dislike for Mir than I do for pretty much any other fighter. The guy is so far beyond cocky I think it must be an act. But no...he's just that full of himself with his curly locks and ridiculous soul patch. But thats not why I'm betting against him in this fight. Mir hasn't really impressed me at all other than his last fight against Nogeiura. But anyone would look impressive against a guy who has a severe flu and staf infection that put him in the hospital with IVs for days after the fight...How did it feel to win a "belt" vs. a punching bag Mir? Other than that, Mir has no gas tank, overrated standup and average takedown defense. I don't see this one going the distance. I see Lesnar doing whatever he wants to do whether it be standing or on the ground. He wont make the same amateur mistake like he made in his second MMA fight when he fought Mir the first time. Lesnar by TKO.
My Pick: Brock Lesnar (-227) 3 units to win 1.3 units
GSP vs Thiago Alves:
This will prolly be the most exciting fight on the main card and truthfully this is going to be more of a value pick than anything. GSP is one of my favourite fighters, and being a fellow Canadian, its hard for me to pick against him. But This is the first time hes faught someone bigger than him, with Thiago cutting from 200lbs to fight at 170lbs. Its truly ridiculous that he can even cut down but he looked like he didnt struggle at all at the weigh-ins yesterday. As for GSP, there's some rumours going around that hes got serious elbow bursitis, and if you look up some pics from the last couple days he looks like hes got a baseball inside of his elbow. If its as bad as it looks, he could have a hard time making those beautiful takedowns and landing those devastating elbows that he's so good at on the ground. Only thing that worries me about Alves is that his best attribute is his kicks, and he may be tentative to throw them because hes scared to be taken down. But ill take my chances with the live dog and Alves to beat a possibly not 100% GSP.
My Pick: Thiago Alves (+260) 1 unit to win 2.6 units
Michael Bisping vs Dan Henderson:
Speaking of fighters I dislike, Bisping is a giant ****ing tool and I hope he dies of Syphillis and throat herpes. But back to the actual fight - I think Dan can control this fight in all aspects. The one thing that Bisping has over Henderson is speed and if he can do what he did against Leben, he has a chance. He will want to stick and move, continuously back pedalling while peppering Hendo with some weak but annoying shots. However, Hendo isn't going to allow this. He will close the distance and take Bisping down at will if he feels hes not getting the better of the standup. If standup is going well, look for Hendo to try to land with those bricks that he calls hands.
My Pick: Dan Henderson (-210) 2 units to win .95 units
Alan Belcher vs Sexyama:
Yes I said Sexyama. I know a lot of ppl are leaning towards Belcher thinking his a good underdog pick, but I just don't see it. Belcher has great standup but can only back it up with weak takedown defense and below average submissions. Sure he submitted Denis Kang in his last fight, but Kang basically gave his head to be guillotined. Akiyama is a great Judo practioner, with decent standup and solid submission skills. He is the smaller of the 2 fighters, so he will have to close the distance to get the takedowns. I see this happening with ease as Akiyama submits Belcher in the second round.
My Pick: Sexyama (-210) 2 units to win .95 units
My final pick is just a parlay. Jon Fitch is going to make this Thiago fellow look like a fish out of water. Paulo was getting absolutely school until he landed that lucky shot vs. Koscheck. Not only that but Fitch pretty much ran over every jiu jitsu fighter hes faced. I this as a true one sided beatdown as Fitch ground-and-pound's Thiago face into oblivion. The price is too high so I will be parlaying Fitch with Brock.
My pick Lesnar and Fitch Parlay (-130) 1 unit to win .77 units
Some quick picks from the undercard:
I thought Shannon Gugerty would open up as a bigger favourite than what the odds are suggesting. I think he can outwork Grice on the ground to a submission victory.
My pick Shannon Gugerty (-120) 1 unit to win .8 units
TJ Grant is a great up and comer. I took him last time as a big dog and I will do it again at these odds. He did take this fight on short notice and Kim is no joke but i'll sprinkle a bit here.
My pick TJ Grant (+185) 0.5 units to win .925 units
I will prolly have a bunch of random degenerate parlays but I won't be around to list em later.
Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir
I have more dislike for Mir than I do for pretty much any other fighter. The guy is so far beyond cocky I think it must be an act. But no...he's just that full of himself with his curly locks and ridiculous soul patch. But thats not why I'm betting against him in this fight. Mir hasn't really impressed me at all other than his last fight against Nogeiura. But anyone would look impressive against a guy who has a severe flu and staf infection that put him in the hospital with IVs for days after the fight...How did it feel to win a "belt" vs. a punching bag Mir? Other than that, Mir has no gas tank, overrated standup and average takedown defense. I don't see this one going the distance. I see Lesnar doing whatever he wants to do whether it be standing or on the ground. He wont make the same amateur mistake like he made in his second MMA fight when he fought Mir the first time. Lesnar by TKO.
My Pick: Brock Lesnar (-227) 3 units to win 1.3 units
GSP vs Thiago Alves:
This will prolly be the most exciting fight on the main card and truthfully this is going to be more of a value pick than anything. GSP is one of my favourite fighters, and being a fellow Canadian, its hard for me to pick against him. But This is the first time hes faught someone bigger than him, with Thiago cutting from 200lbs to fight at 170lbs. Its truly ridiculous that he can even cut down but he looked like he didnt struggle at all at the weigh-ins yesterday. As for GSP, there's some rumours going around that hes got serious elbow bursitis, and if you look up some pics from the last couple days he looks like hes got a baseball inside of his elbow. If its as bad as it looks, he could have a hard time making those beautiful takedowns and landing those devastating elbows that he's so good at on the ground. Only thing that worries me about Alves is that his best attribute is his kicks, and he may be tentative to throw them because hes scared to be taken down. But ill take my chances with the live dog and Alves to beat a possibly not 100% GSP.
My Pick: Thiago Alves (+260) 1 unit to win 2.6 units
Michael Bisping vs Dan Henderson:
Speaking of fighters I dislike, Bisping is a giant ****ing tool and I hope he dies of Syphillis and throat herpes. But back to the actual fight - I think Dan can control this fight in all aspects. The one thing that Bisping has over Henderson is speed and if he can do what he did against Leben, he has a chance. He will want to stick and move, continuously back pedalling while peppering Hendo with some weak but annoying shots. However, Hendo isn't going to allow this. He will close the distance and take Bisping down at will if he feels hes not getting the better of the standup. If standup is going well, look for Hendo to try to land with those bricks that he calls hands.
My Pick: Dan Henderson (-210) 2 units to win .95 units
Alan Belcher vs Sexyama:
Yes I said Sexyama. I know a lot of ppl are leaning towards Belcher thinking his a good underdog pick, but I just don't see it. Belcher has great standup but can only back it up with weak takedown defense and below average submissions. Sure he submitted Denis Kang in his last fight, but Kang basically gave his head to be guillotined. Akiyama is a great Judo practioner, with decent standup and solid submission skills. He is the smaller of the 2 fighters, so he will have to close the distance to get the takedowns. I see this happening with ease as Akiyama submits Belcher in the second round.
My Pick: Sexyama (-210) 2 units to win .95 units
My final pick is just a parlay. Jon Fitch is going to make this Thiago fellow look like a fish out of water. Paulo was getting absolutely school until he landed that lucky shot vs. Koscheck. Not only that but Fitch pretty much ran over every jiu jitsu fighter hes faced. I this as a true one sided beatdown as Fitch ground-and-pound's Thiago face into oblivion. The price is too high so I will be parlaying Fitch with Brock.
My pick Lesnar and Fitch Parlay (-130) 1 unit to win .77 units
Some quick picks from the undercard:
I thought Shannon Gugerty would open up as a bigger favourite than what the odds are suggesting. I think he can outwork Grice on the ground to a submission victory.
My pick Shannon Gugerty (-120) 1 unit to win .8 units
TJ Grant is a great up and comer. I took him last time as a big dog and I will do it again at these odds. He did take this fight on short notice and Kim is no joke but i'll sprinkle a bit here.
My pick TJ Grant (+185) 0.5 units to win .925 units
I will prolly have a bunch of random degenerate parlays but I won't be around to list em later.
