Bellator 214: Fedor vs. Bader (January 26, 2019)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Paramount, DAZN, 9:00 pm ET
Fedor Emelianenko vs Rayn Bader (heavyweight grand prix final)
Henry Corrales vs Aaron Pico
Jake Hager vs JW Kiser
Juan Archuleta vs Ricky Bandejas
Adel Altamimi vs Brandon McMahan

[jacharron17]

Fedor has a 60% chance of winning this fight. Insane value on him.

[JIBBBY]

Fedor does have a chance with his looping punching power, however Bader should try to ground Fedor, put him on his back and use his wrestling, and ground and pound.. Fedor won't be able to flip Bader on the ground like he did Chael Sonnen either.. Bader's wrestling base and top control is too strong..

Odds are off a bit, Bader could get clipped and dropped for sure though when it's standing.. Gas tank has to go to Bader also.. Fedor is old now and seems to just hang on in these fights lately..

[firekillex]

Bader has an 80-90% chance of winning this fight hes basically better in all aspects of MMA
Fedor beat an over the hill Mir and a 185er in Chael sonnen lol, Bader is a legit top 10 205er in the world and is looking pretty solid at HW , the 2 best guys in this tournament were Bader and Mitrione whoever won that scrap was most likely to win this Grand Prix IMO

Bader at -274 has value to add in on Parlays imo, if he doesnt get clipped in the first round he should win this fight no problem

[Demonata]

Bader has 95% chance of winning against slow ass fedor. Bader goimg to take him down with ease and fedor going to gas fast..

[PaperTrail07]

how exactly did you come to that # LOL....

Fedor has a 60% chance of winning this fight. Insane value on him.

[PaperTrail07]

Bader is not dumb.....avoid and grapple/tackle fedor to a finish....if I had to pick a % I give Fedor about 15% chance...he wins/control maybe 2 of 15 minutes and it probably wont go that far lol...

[JIBBBY]

Bader has 95% chance of winning against slow ass fedor. Bader goimg to take him down with ease and fedor going to gas fast..

Exactly how I see it Dem.. Fedor a punchers chance early on before he gasses.. Fedor will be gassed after the first grappling exchange.. Bader by KO prop is the call...

Since there is no KO prop out yet, ITD prop is the only option for now.. KO prop might still surface though for a little better value, I'll hold out for now..

3009 Bader wins inside distance

-215

[Beelzebubzy]

do we forget how chinny bader is?

[JIBBBY]

do we forget how chinny bader is?

Go Fedor 1st round finish prop and Bader by KO if you wanna hedge it safer..

I can only imagine the Fedor 1st round finish prop should be pegged around +425 or so based on this current prop that is out now below..

3005 Emelianenko wins inside distance

+290

[JIBBBY]

I'd have to say this prop is almost a lock.. Odds reflect it unfortunately.. No way these guys are going 5 rounds.. Fedor alone can't make 5 rounds if his life depended on it IMO at his age.

3004 Fight won’t go 5 round distance

-750

Under 1.5 rounds might be a bet worth rolling the dice on if the odds are reasonable when they come out..

[Hugo de Naranja]

Go Fedor 1st round finish prop and Bader by KO if you wanna hedge it safer..

I can only imagine the Fedor 1st round finish prop should be pegged around +425 or so based on this current prop that is out now below..

3005 Emelianenko wins inside distance

+290

There won't be odds on Fedor R1 or Bader. Bellator never does full props just basic 8.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

[JIBBBY]

There won't be odds on Fedor R1 or Bader. Bellator never does full props just basic 8.

With Fedor fighting and no UFC this weekend I was thinking maybe prop expansion... We'll see?

[JC2008]

Lots of money has been coming in on Fedor fwiw.

[Hugo de Naranja]

With Fedor fighting and no UFC this weekend I was thinking maybe prop expansion... We'll see?

Would be shocked but excited if those were available.

[nyrider88]

jake hager wwe star -500, never been inside the cage before. am i missing anything?

[JC2008]

jake hager wwe star -500, never been inside the cage before. am i missing anything?

Because his opponent looks like he was pulled off a bar stool in the local pub. He's also 41 years old and 0-1.

[JIBBBY]

Here are few card write ups.. Don't agree with the Fedor losing by decision predictions that's for sure. Take what you want from these..


MMA MANIA -

265 lbs.: Fedor Emelianenko (38-5, 1 NC) vs. Ryan Bader (26-5)

Sports fans and MMA pundits alike branded Fedor the “G.O.A.T.” many years ago when he had nearly a decade of dominance, sporting a Heavyweight win streak from 2001-09 that saw him beat Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (twice), Mark Coleman (twice), Mirko Cro Cop and Mark Hunt just to name a few. Then, a surprising trilogy of losses in Strikeforce shattered the myth of “The Last Emperor” and not long after he went into a self-imposed retirement.
We all know the lure of the spotlight and the thrill of one-on-one competition leads to fighters making ill-advised choices about coming out of retirement, but Emelianenko has been largely successful since his 2015 return. The only blemish on his record in that time was arguably the best night of Matt Mitrione’s career. He rebounded from that loss by entering himself into Bellator’s tournament to crown a new champion, and finished both Frank Mir and Chael Sonnen via first round technical knockout to advance to the finals.
If you argued that Bader had the harder road to the main event I would 100 percent agree with that assessment. Timing and accuracy were on his side in a quick finish at Bellator 199 against Muhammed Lawal, but given “King Mo’s” wrestling pedigree and knockout power it could easily have gone the other way. It would be very difficult to pull off the same trick against the much larger Mitrione in round two, so Bader made the sensible choice to out-wrestle him instead.
In short, Bader fought two dangerous athletes who more than likely have their best years ahead of them, while Emelianenko fought two past their prime athletes whose best years are clearly behind them. If you have any doubt about that look at Frank Mir’s performance against Javy Ayala, because just like “The Iceman” he needs to be talked out of ever taking another fight. In theory that makes Bader is the clear favorite. He’s younger (35 vs. 42), he’s bigger (6’2” vs. 6’0”), and he’s on a six-fight win streak. Is it game over for the G.O.A.T.?
One of the oldest cliches in fighting is that “power is the last thing to go.” Emelianenko’s submission skills (17 of 38 wins, 44 percent) should probably be given as much or more credit than his knockouts (12 of 38 wins, 31.5 percent), but fans and fighters alike talk with reverent awe about the power of Fedor’s punch. Even the fight he had with Matt Mitrione resulted in an amazing double knockdown when each landed a hard strike at the same time. Bader on the other hand should get more credit for his power (11 of 26 wins, 42 percent) so it’s not out of the question the exact same thing could happen here.
As someone who still remembers buying Pride FC on pay-per-view (PPV) before it folded up its tent and sold its assets to Zuffa, I have to put nostalgia aside and stick to what we know of present day Emelianenko. This is a man who very nearly got folded by a middling fighter in Fabio Maldonado. This is a man who had his chin tested by both Mitrione and Mir, and he failed the test on one of two occasions. And whether you like it or not, Bader knows that history is at stake here if he can become a dual-weight champion.
If Bader wasn’t going to stand and trade with Mitrione, there’s very little chance he wants to do it with Emelianenko. Expect a takedown each round — maybe several — and potentially lots of booing. Bader won’t care how you feel once they read the scores, wrap that new Heavyweight title around his waist, and hand him a nice large check for his performance. If it’s crowd pleasing that will be an unexpected and surprising bonus.
Final prediction: Ryan Bader wins the Heavyweight title via unanimous decision

145 lbs.: Aaron Pico (4-1) vs. Henry Corrales (16-3)

Related
Pico Thinks He’s On Track To Break A Jon Jones Record

‘Dude!’ Corrales Ready To Bang With Pico At Bellator 214


Pico has become a force to be reckoned with at the very young age of 22. He is consistently knocking off more experienced foes in fight after fight and has shown off scary power in the process. It’s actually stunning to think he was planning to go to the Olympics as a wrestler in 2016 when boxing could have easily been his calling. Everyone (including me) talks more about his grappling than his junior Golden Gloves championship in 2009, and he’s had almost a decade to work on those hand skills and get better over time.
Pico keeps getting tested over and over again and to pass this time he’ll have to surpass Corrales. He’s a forgotten figure in this division despite racking up four straight wins, including his recent finish of Andy Main, who had both height and reach on him in the fight. Like better known Featherweight compatriot Patricio “Pitbull” Freire, he’s not intimidated by larger men, although his stature compares well to Pico. Corrales stands 5’8” with a 69” reach, while Pico stands 5’8” with a 70.5” reach, so if Mike Goldberg is on commentary for this bout you’ll no doubt hear that, “everything else is virtually EYE-dentical.”
The one thing that’s not identical is that Corrales had a three-fight skid before his current win streak, dropping bouts to Daniel Straus, Emmanuel Sanchez and the aforementioned Freire, losing two of three by guillotine choke. Pico is so good with his hands that we’ve never seen him tap somebody out, but to be fair we’ve also never seen him in a fight that lasted longer than 3:45. Some fighters soften you up to take you down and submit you, but Pico simply bypasses softening and goes straight to stiffening. As much as anybody he’s fought, Corrales will be a “stiff test” for Pico but it’s one I expect him to ace.
Final prediction: Aaron Pico wins via first round knockout

265 lbs.: Jake Hager (0-0) vs. J.W. Kiser (1-1)

If you don’t know Jack Swagger by now you will after he makes his professional MMA debut on Saturday. All puns aside, Hager was a legitimate wrestling badass at the University of Oklahoma and it was that pedigree that led him to be recruited for pro wrestling by WWE. He now has the chance to go back to those roots and see if they can land him success in MMA, and since it worked out reasonably well for Brock Lesnar and Bobby Lashley, he’s got plenty of reason to think it will for him, too, as a fellow Heavyweight. Let’s be honest, though — Kiser is no kind of competition for anybody. He lost the only fight he had to date in 24 seconds, and unless Hager shits the bed worse than C.M. Punk, he should be just fine here.
Final prediction: Jake Hager f/k/a Jack Swagger takes a unanimous decision

135 lbs.: Juan Archuleta (21-1) vs. Ricky Bandejas (11-1)

Related
Bandejas Not About Another Irish ‘Loudmouth’

Bellator’s ‘Spaniard’ All About Taking Chances At The Forum


“The Spaniard” Juan Archuleta hasn’t lost in 16 straight fights and has knocked out 10 of his opponents. Bandejas, meanwhile, shocked the world at Bellator 204 by finishing James Gallagher, and has finished almost 60 percent of his fights (four knockouts and three submissions) thus far. Archuleta owns both the height and weight advantage going into this fight, but Bandejas was a Cage Fury prospect who was overlooked until he cleaned Gallagher’s clock with a kick. It would be easy to count out Bandejas again given his more experienced opponent, but Bandejas has a six-fight win streak of his own and has shown no fear of aggressive fighters who try to swarm early. It could very well be another quick finish for Bandejas unless Archuleta keeps his cool.
Final prediction: Juan Archuleta finishes via third round technical knockout

145 lbs.: Brandon McMahan (5-6) vs. Adel Altamimi (7-5)

Let’s make this short and sweet: McMahan is a sub-.500 fighter by any record you can find for him anywhere online. Altamimi’s only loss in his last six fights was to the aforementioned Archuleta and 86 percent of his wins end by submission. What more can I say?
Final prediction: Adel Altamimi wins via kimura
That’s a wrap!


MMA FIGHTING -


Fedor Emelianenko vs. Ryan Bader

Fedor Emelianenko doesn’t strike me as a man who believes in fairy tales, which is probably a good thing because that’s not the kind of ending I foresee for the heavyweight Grand Prix. The twilight of Emelianenko’s career has actually been impressive outside of a quick loss to Matt Mitrione and a questionable majority decision win over Fabio Maldonado, so it’s understandable that zealots of the “The Last Emperor” could talk themselves into him turning back the clock and winning this tournament.
This is Ryan Bader’s fight to lose.
Once saddled with the reputation of never being able to win the big one, Bader has grown comfortable in his own skin and while his skills remain mostly the same (outstanding wrestling combined with a hammer right hand), it’s his confidence that has put him over the top. Bader dictates the pace of every fight he’s in, whether it’s using his wrestling to set up his vicious ground-and-pound or pawing with his jab to set up a power punch.
On the flip side, Emelianenko has always been a master of adaptation. He’s also one of MMA’s all-time great comeback kings, a trait he displayed as recently as his last fight when he was able to shake a persistent Chael Sonnen off of him and finish with strikes. If Bader gives Emelianenko time to get into a groove, don’t be surprised if Emelianenko is able to put the light heavyweight champ in some precarious positions. Bader has strong defensive skills, but we’ve seen him get rocked before.
I think Emelianenko will look as good as he has in his last handful of wins. It just won’t be good enough to beat Bader on Saturday.
Pick: Bader

Aaron Pico vs. Henry Corrales

It’s almost a shame that one man’s winning streak has to end here as these are two of the most promising and exciting fighters at 145 pounds. Aaron Pico has become a highlight machine after faltering in his pro debut and Henry Corrales’s non-stop action style has helped him go from nearly being released to Bellator title contender.
I like Pico’s speed and precision to make the difference in this one. Not to take anything away from Corrales who is an excellent striker with good pop in both hands, but Pico is proving to have unreal finishing power. His penchant for working the body shows how advanced he is for a fighter his age and should this turn into a pure firefight, Pico can more than hang with Corrales.
However, if Pico is lax in his defense, he could end up suffering a similar fate to that which befell him in his fight with Zach Freeman. He’s young and has a fresh chin, so you get the sense that Pico is as content to trade blows as he is to avoid them. Against a hard hitter like Corrales, that could absolutely lead to Pico being finished again.
This is Pico’s biggest test so far and I’m picking him to win via another fast finish based on how his skill set and maturity have rapidly evolved with every outing.
Pick: Pico

Jake Hager vs. J.W. Kiser

As many have pointed out, comparing Jake Hager to CM Punk just because they both have a background in professional wrestling is ridiculous. Before Hager became famous for his exploits as “Jack Swagger” in the WWE, he was an All-American wrestler at the University of Oklahoma and probably would have been a top MMA prospect out of school if Vince McMahon hadn’t scooped him up.
Now he’s being matched up with combat sports journeyman J.W. Kiser, who turned pro in 2018 after a lengthy amateur career. That actually makes Kiser more dangerous on paper that it might seem given that he has the experience advantage and really has nothing to lose.
But Hager’s wrestling expertise is the best possible base a fighter can have making a debut on this stage because if the fight gets too hairy, he always has the option of shooting in with a power double and dumping Kiser on his back. Hager is an above-average athlete at heavyweight, which gives him another natural advantage in a fight where the skill gap isn’t likely to be too wide.
Hager won’t waste any time taking Kiser down and pounding him out inside of around.

Pick: Hager

Juan Archuleta vs. Ricky Bandejas

It was hard not to be impressed by Ricky Bandejas’s Bellator debut in which he massacred highly touted bantamweight prospect James Gallagher. Juan Archuleta is a completely different beast.
One of Bellator’s best kept secrets, Archuleta joined the promotion on a 13-fight win streak and hasn’t looked back since, winning his first three bouts for the promotion. He’s dropping back down to 135 pounds for this one and should be even more dangerous in this weight class. He’s a well-rounded fighter who can also be an absolute grinder when the situation calls for it. His elbows are dangerous both in the clinch and in top position, where he excels at control and finding openings to do damage.
Bandejas will need to get loose early to keep Archuleta honest and it will be intriguing to see how his wrestling background holds up against the gritty takedowns and trips of Archuleta. If he can keep this standing, I favor Bandejas slightly.
That said, I see Archuleta scoring enough takedowns to frustrate Bandejas and winning the majority of the grappling exchanges to pick up a win on the scorecards.
Pick: Archuleta

Brandan McMahan vs. Adel El-Tamini

For those wondering why this bout is opening the main card, let’s just say it pays to be friends with Star-Lord.
Adel El-Tamini won’t have a Guardian of the Galaxy in the cage to help him out, but what he will bring is a ton of heart and aggression, as well as a knack for finishing fights. This style has put El-Tamini in some bad spots before, as evidenced by his having never been past the second round, win or lose.
His striking can get wild, which actually might serve him well against the relatively conservative Brandan McMahan. McMahan is solid on the feet and he has a sneaky submission game. It’s unclear how he’ll deal with El-Tamini putting the pressure on him though.
Predicting main card openers with obscure fighters is difficult, but I’ll lean towards El-Tamini’s Hollywood supporters spurring him on to a first-round submission victory.
Pick: El-Tamini

[JIBBBY]

Bellator 214 - Heavyweight 5 rounds - The Forum - Los Angeles, California - Paramount
Sat 1/26		3001 Fedor Emelianenko		+200
11:59PM		3002 Ryan Bader		-240
Bellator 214 - Featherweight 3 rounds - The Forum - Los Angeles, California - Paramount
Sat 1/26		3101 Henry Corrales		+400
10:30PM		3102 Aaron Pico		-500
Bellator 214 - Heavyweight 3 rounds - The Forum - Los Angeles, California - Paramount
Sat 1/26		3201 JW Kiser		+500
10:00PM		3202 Jake Hager		-700
Bellator 214 - Bantamweight 3 rounds - The Forum - Los Angeles, California - Paramount
Sat 1/26		3301 Ricky Bandejas		+210
9:30PM		3302 Juan Archuleta		-250

[JIBBBY]

There won't be odds on Fedor R1 or Bader. Bellator never does full props just basic 8.

Looks like you are right Hugo.. 5dimes still just showing the basics..

[Hugo de Naranja]

Bellator 214: Bader vs. Fedor Picks:
Ricky Bandejas Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Jake Hager Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Aaron Pico Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Ryan Bader Round 1 TKO (Punches)

[Hugo de Naranja]

Bellator 214: Bader vs. Fedor

Fight #1: Archuleta vs. Bandejas
Bandejas (+200) .75u
Bandejas ITD (+425) .25u

Fight #2: Hager vs. Kiser
Hager ITD (-159) 2.79u to win 1.75u

Hedge:
Kiser ITD (+630) .25u

Fight #3: Pico vs. Corrales
Pico ITD (-170) 3.4u to win 2u
Pico+Corrales Under 1.5 (-115) .58u to win .5u

Hedge:
Corrales ITD (+658) .5u

Fight #4: Bader vs. Fedor
Parlays

Straight Parlays:
Pico/Bader (-144) 1.44u to win 1u

Prop Parlays:
Hager+Kiser WGD/Pico (-155) .78u to win .5u
Hager+Kiser WGD/Pico+Corrales WGD (-130) .65u to win .5u
Pico -3.5/Bader (-114) .57u to win .5u
Hager/Pico ITD (-103) .52u to win .5u
Pico/Bader+Emelianenko Under 1.5 (+106) .5u
Hager+Kiser Under 1.5/Pico -3.5 (+110) .5u
Hager+Kiser Under 1.5/Pico+Corrales Under 1.5/Bader+Fedor Under 1.5 (+377) .25u

[Hugo de Naranja]

Pretty sure this is the heaviest I've ever gone on a Bellator card. Let's see how this pans out.

[JIBBBY]

Yup I'm keeping it simple and small.. This is all I got going on with this event.. I may add more bets come fight time but this is all I'm looking at so far..

$100.00

$140.00

Pending

1/26/19 10:00pm MMA Props Fighting 3304 Fight won’t go 3 round distance +140* vs Bandejas / Archuleta goes 3 rd distance

$100.00	$104.40	Pending	2 Team Parlay
				Pending	1/26/19 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 3009 Bader wins inside distance -210* vs Not Bader inside distance
				Pending	1/26/19 10:00pm MMA Props Fighting 3209 Hager wins inside distance -260* vs Not Hager inside distance

$70.00

$42.40

Pending

1/26/19 10:30pm MMA Props Fighting 3109 Pico wins inside distance -165* vs Not Pico inside distance

[bass7]

jake hager wwe star -500, never been inside the cage before. am i missing anything?

At the weigh ins hes pretty ripped and the other guys physique is lol but yeah first time in the cage and hes now a -700 fave ill take a unit on the other guy whos pretty live imo

[Hugo de Naranja]

At the weigh ins hes pretty ripped and the other guys physique is lol but yeah first time in the cage and hes now a -700 fave ill take a unit on the other guy whos pretty live imo

He’s a can and Hager has a legit wrestling background.

[bass7]

He’s a can and Hager has a legit wrestling background.

Yeah i just think that angle is a little overrated just because ive been following wwe for forever as a fake wrestling fan and for the past 10 yrs or so jack swagger has done jack shit with the company since he tested positive for weed (iirc) and they took away his 'push' as a character which is why hes probably dabbling in mma now since no one wants him in pro wrestling. Hes never taken a legit punch to the face in a while if not ever and his opponent looks like his only way to win is via that route. One sloppy shoot for the legs and it can be lights out for the all american american


WE THE PEOPLE

[unlearn]

Swagger fighting a fat slob with a losing amateur record. Only way he loses is pulling a Greg Hardy.

[Demonata]

ETSLIP ID:
10125559729

BETSLIP PLACED:
Jan 26, 2019 10:35am


4 Bet Parlay

STATUS
DATE/TIME
SPORT/LEAGUE
EVENT
WAGER
ODDS
RISK
TO WIN


Pending
26 Jan 6:35pm
Basketball - NBA
Golden State Warriors v Boston Celtics
Game: Golden State Warriors ML
1.614 (-163)


Pending
26 Jan 7:40pm
Mixed Martial Arts - Bellator
Juan Archuleta v Ricky Bandejas
Fight: Juan Archuleta ML
1.399 (-251)


Pending
26 Jan 8:15pm
Mixed Martial Arts - Bellator
Jake Hager v J. Kiser
Fight: Jake Hager ML
1.149 (-671)


Pending
26 Jan 8:45pm
Mixed Martial Arts - Bellator
Aaron Pico v Henry Corrales
Fight: Aaron Pico ML
1.206 (-485)

PARLAY
3.129 (+213)
0.018800
0.040025

[Hugo de Naranja]

Yeah i just think that angle is a little overrated just because ive been following wwe for forever as a fake wrestling fan and for the past 10 yrs or so jack swagger has done jack shit with the company since he tested positive for weed (iirc) and they took away his 'push' as a character which is why hes probably dabbling in mma now since no one wants him in pro wrestling. Hes never taken a legit punch to the face in a while if not ever and his opponent looks like his only way to win is via that route. One sloppy shoot for the legs and it can be lights out for the all american american


WE THE PEOPLE

Yeah no I'm talking about his real wrestling at the University of Oklahoma.

[5mike5]

Is swagger on this card tonight???

Hes got some skillz

[5mike5]

Is swagger on this card tonight???

Hes got some skillz

Srry rookie move starting from bottom of thread.

Shit i cant wait to see this now

[5mike5]

What a story this guy from Iraq has

Im a fan

[Demonata]

hmmmm wonder who won that fight