UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 (December 29, 2018)

[Sanity Check]

BJ Penn with Andre Pederneiras @ weigh ins.

Don't know if that will be enough to earn him a W.

[Thrilla]

MMA Pros Pick

[unlearn]

All in on Jones. Free 30% boost to my bankroll. Lol at trying to cap the other fights and find an edge when there is free $ staring you all in the face

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hugo and Jibs what’s your biggest bet on this one?

Jones is my biggest exposure

[Thrilla]

"She knocked out a few dudes this camp" - Jason Parillo (Cyborg's striking coach)

[Thrilla]

Female UFC badass Cris Cyborg beats up grown fighting men ... so says her famous striking coach Jason Parillo ... who tells us Justino is an equal opportunity ass kicker.

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson Picks:
Montel Jackson Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Curtis Millender Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Bevon Lewis Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Nathaniel Wood Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Ryan Hall Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Petr Yan Round 3 TKO (Punches)
Cat Zingano Round 2 TKO (Elbows and Punches)
Walt Harris Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Chad Mendes Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Ilir Latifi Round 1 KO (Punches)
Michael Chiesa Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Cris Cyborg Round 3 TKO (Punches)
Jon Jones Unanimous Decision (49-46 x3)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson

Fight Pass Prelims:

Fight #1: Jackson vs. Kelleher
Jackson Decision (+200) .5u
Jackson KO/TKO (+345) .5u

Hedge:
Kelleher ITD (+540) .5u

Fight #2: Millender vs. Bahadurzada
Millender -3.5 (+135) 1.5u
Millender Decision (+220) 1u
Millender Round 2 (+675) .5u
Millender Round 3 (+1100) .5u

Hedge:
Bahadurzada ITD (+280) 1u

Fight #3: Lewis (DEBUT) vs. U. Hall
Lewis (+120) 2u
Lewis ITD (+232) .5u

Fight #4: Wood vs. Ewell
Wood+Ewell Under 2.5 (-105) 2.63u to win 2.5u
Wood KO/TKO (+335) 1u
Wood Submission (+640) .5u

Hedge:
Ewell Submission (+654) .5u

Fox Sports 1 Prelims:

Fight #5: R. Hall vs. Penn
Hall Submission (+350) 1u

Hedge:
Penn KO/TKO (+1525) .5u

Fight #6: Yan vs. Silva de Andrade
Yan -3.5 (-155) 6.2u to win 4u
Yan ITD (+185) 1u
Yan KO/TKO (+310) 1.5u
Yan Round 3 (+1125) .75u

Hedge:
Andrade KO/TKO (+1405) 1u

Fight #7: Zingano vs. M. Anderson
Zingano -3.5 (+165) 2u
Zingano+Anderson Under 2.5 (+175) 1u
Zingano KO/TKO (+650) .5u

Hedge:
Anderson KO/TKO (+455) 1u

Fight #8: Harris vs. Arlovski
Harris+Arlovski Goes Distance (+150) 1u
Harris Decision (+496) .75u

Main Card:

Fight #9: Mendes vs. Volkanovski
Mendes+Volkanovski Under 2.5 (+165) 1u
Mendes ITD (+255) 1u
Mendes+Volkanovski Won’t Start Round 2 (+315) 2u

Hedge(s):
Volkanovski (+140) 1u
Volkanovski ITD (+435) 1u
Volkanovski KO/TKO (+525) .5u

Fight #10: Latifi vs. C. Anderson
Latifi+Anderson Under 2.5 (+120) 1u
Latifi Round 1 (+325) 1u

Hedge:
Anderson Decision (+204) 1u

Fight #11: Chiesa vs. Condit
Chiesa Submission (+225) 1u
Chiesa Round 2 (+550) .75u
Chiesa Round 3 (+900) .25u
Chiesa KO/TKO (+1085) .5u

Hedge(s):
Condit ITD (+335) .5u
Condit KO/TKO (+460) .5u

Fight #12: Cyborg (C) vs. Nunes
Cyborg KO/TKO (-101) 3.9u to win 3.86u
Cyborg Unanimous Decision (+456) 1u
Cyborg Round 3 (+700) .5u
Cyborg+Nunes Draw (+8500) .1u

Hedge(s):
Nunes KO/TKO (+603) 1u
Nunes Round 1 (+1200) 1.25u
Nunes Split/Majority Decision (+1330) .5u

Fight #13: Jones vs. Gustafsson
Jones -5.5 (-135) 1.35u to win 1u
Jones Unanimous Decision (+267) 2.5u
Jones Split/Majority Decision (+1250) .25u
Jones+Gustafsson Draw (+7500) .25u

Hedge(s):
Gustafsson Split/Majority Decision (+1055) .5u
Gustafsson KO/TKO (+1180) 2u

Straight Parlays:
Cyborg/Jones (-111) 2.78u to win 2.5u
Yan/Harris (+128) 2u
Yan/Chiesa (+129) 1u
Millender/Yan (+130) 1u
Latifi/Chiesa (+165) 1u
Jackson/Millender (+180) 1.5u

Prop Parlays:
Yan/Cyborg -5.5 (+110) 1u
Cyborg -5.5/Jones -5.5 (+144) 1u
Latifi -3.5/Chiesa -3.5 (+311) .5u

Full Card Props:
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+244) 1u
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+560) .5u
Over 9.5 Fights Go Distance (+1508) .25u
Over 10.5 Fights Go Distance (+5800) .25u

Multi-Event Parlays:
Cormier/Jones (-140) 7u to win 5.01u
Ortiz/Jones (-114) 2.85u to win 2.5u
Santos+Manuwa WSR3/Cyborg (-114) 2.28u to win 2u
Rountree+Walker WSR3/Jones (+108) 2u
Dos Santos/Jones (+123) 1u
Santos/Cyborg (+130) 2.5u

[CasaBonita]

i got over 37 units on Jones, that means over 30% of my bank roll on him... i dont know why or how i went that crazy but its done...

Good luck everyone!

[Thrilla]

i got over 37 units on Jones, that means over 30% of my bank roll on him... i dont know why or how i went that crazy but its done...

Good luck everyone!

Izzy pros never bet more than 5% of bank.

be careful

GL

[CasaBonita]

Ya i know is not a responsable or discipline decision but at the same time i love taking shots

Good luck

[unlearn]

i got over 37 units on Jones, that means over 30% of my bank roll on him... i dont know why or how i went that crazy but its done...

Good luck everyone!

Smart man. Like betting on Mayweather in boxing. Free $

[Teem]

Volkanovski takes a lot of shots from lesser competition. I think Mendes uncorks a bomb on him.

[Teem]

Was gonna play Zingano but I've been getting burnt on WMMA. Think I'm gonna play Condit/Mendes or Condit/Millender. Chiesa is going to spam takedowns. I just hope Condit doesn't start to get punished by them late in round 2 and round 3.

[KingHawkins]

Attn Turbozed. any picks from you today? Not gonna lie, there is no way I would bet the other side as you. Please share what you're on if you don't mind, post or PM me. Thank you, you're the man.

[KingHawkins]

think I will go pretty big on Wood and Bevon Lewis. Medium/big play on Bahdurzada, and a medium play on Cory Anderson. going to casino shortly. Also considering firing on Oklahoma +14

[Hugo de Naranja]

Was gonna play Zingano but I've been getting burnt on WMMA. Think I'm gonna play Condit/Mendes or Condit/Millender. Chiesa is going to spam takedowns. I just hope Condit doesn't start to get punished by them late in round 2 and round 3.

Why play Condit if he's going to get taken down?

[Hugo de Naranja]

think I will go pretty big on Wood and Bevon Lewis. Medium/big play on Bahdurzada, and a medium play on Cory Anderson. going to casino shortly. Also considering firing on Oklahoma +14

I know for a fact Turbo is on Millender.

[KingHawkins]

I know for a fact Turbo is on Millender.

thank you, Hugo, for real. I just arrived at casino with lots of cash in hand to get down my action. I guess I am pulling off my Bahd. play. I am okay with that.

[JIBBBY]

$10.00

$650.00

Pending

12/29/18 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1013 Gustafsson / Jones draw +6500* vs Fight not a draw

.. Ya never know? First fight was damn close.

[WolfTicketDealer]

Have been super busy but figured I'd post some picks. Hoping to close out the year right.

+1.685 units YTD

Chiesa (-160) 4 u to win 2.5 u

Volkanovski (+150) 1 u

Megan Anderson (+140) 1 u

Also like some props, and have Jones/Cyborg in several parlays. BOL

[Hugo de Naranja]

Which Anderson is that?

[WolfTicketDealer]

Which Anderson is that?

Megan. Fixed. Thanks!

[Teem]

Chiesa does not want to strike with Condit so he's gonna spam the takedowns. Chiesa has never KO'd anyone. Condit has finished 28 of his 30 wins. Chiesa has been finished 4 times, subbed 3 times (twice in a row now). Condit could scramble and get a sub in of his own. I'm just concerned about Condit getting smothered for a whole round or 2 because wrestling is a weakness for him. But who has Chiesa really shown anything against? I can't imagine him being successful at Welterweight and Condit's level of competition has been much higher. It seems to me there's a lot of value on Condit. And Chiesa doesn't have that height and reach advantage anymore so things that worked for him before may not be so effective on Condit.

[PaperTrail07]

Plays:
Hall ITD +200 RYAN HALL
Harris ITD -110
Harris -175
Millender -145
Gusta ITD +650
Mendes -145
Anderson +120

[Hugo de Naranja]

Chiesa does not want to strike with Condit so he's gonna spam the takedowns. Chiesa has been subbed what like 4 times? Condit could scramble and get a sub in of his own. I'm just concerned about Condit getting smothered for a whole round or 2. But who has Chiesa really shown anything against? I can't imagine him being successful at Welterweight and Condit's level of competition has been much higher. It seems to me there's a lot of value on Condit. And Chiesa doesn't have that height and reach advantage so things that worked for him before may not be so effective on Condit.

I think we agree on the basic premise that this is striker vs. grappler.

Condit has maybe the worst Takedown Defense of a solid fighter in the modern day UFC at a paltry 37% over a large sample size. Chiesa averages almost 3 TDs/15 minutes and has taken down 10 of his 11 UFC opponents (everyone but Kevin Lee). Given this information, I think it is likely that Chiesa gets it to the mat. Of his 7 UFC Win's Chiesa has Finished Five with Rear-Naked Chokes so he has a very good shot to finish if he can get TDs.

In terms of recent form, both fighters are on losing streaks but Condit has looked dreadful recently. His style is based on high output striking and he has not been pulling the trigger in recent fights (i.e the Magny fight). Condit has lost 4 of his last 5 and is 2-7 in his last nine UFC fights despite being a favorite five times and a Pick 'Em once in those nine.

Of the two of them, Chiesa clearly has the better recent wins (since 2012), beating Beneil Dariush, Francisco Trinaldo, and Al Iaquinta. These guys are almost identical in size. Condit has a 1" height advantage and they have equal reach. If anything, not having to cut as much weight as he did when dropping to 155 will help Chiesa for sure. Those that have moved up in weight have looked better at the higher weight class.

It doesn't really matter that Condit's level of competition has been better since he's been consistently losing. He is clearly not the fighter he once was.

Condit hasn't subbed anyone in his UFC career but Chiesa does leave himself open at times so it would not be shocking if he got finished.

Overall, this is a favorable style matchup for Chiesa and I think he gets the job down.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Plays:
Hall ITD +200 RYAN HALL
Harris ITD -110
Harris -175
Millender -145
Gusta ITD +650
Mendes -145
Anderson +120

Which Anderson?????? Both are similarly priced dogs haha

[frankieunits2685]

It’s almost time gentlemen!!!!!!!

[Teem]

I think we agree on the basic premise that this is striker vs. grappler.

Condit has maybe the worst Takedown Defense of a solid fighter in the modern day UFC at a paltry 37% over a large sample size. Chiesa averages almost 3 TDs/15 minutes and has taken down 10 of his 11 UFC opponents (everyone but Kevin Lee). Given this information, I think it is likely that Chiesa gets it to the mat. Of his 7 UFC Win's Chiesa has Finished Five with Rear-Naked Chokes so he has a very good shot to finish if he can get TDs.

In terms of recent form, both fighters are on losing streaks but Condit has looked dreadful recently. His style is based on high output striking and he has not been pulling the trigger in recent fights (i.e the Magny fight). Condit has lost 4 of his last 5 and is 2-7 in his last nine UFC fights despite being a favorite five times and a Pick 'Em once in those nine.

Of the two of them, Chiesa clearly has the better recent wins (since 2012), beating Beneil Dariush, Francisco Trinaldo, and Al Iaquinta. These guys are almost identical in size. Condit has a 1" height advantage and they have equal reach. If anything, not having to cut as much weight as he did when dropping to 155 will help Chiesa for sure. Those that have moved up in weight have looked better at the higher weight class.

It doesn't really matter that Condit's level of competition has been better since he's been consistently losing. He is clearly not the fighter he once was.

Condit hasn't subbed anyone in his UFC career but Chiesa does leave himself open at times so it would not be shocking if he got finished.

Overall, this is a favorable style matchup for Chiesa and I think he gets the job down.

I hear ya. I still believe in Condit though. Might be a hard one for me to watch. I'm covering my ass with some other plays. Good luck with your picks and I appreciate the feedback!

[Hugo de Naranja]

I hear ya. I still believe in Condit though. Might be a hard one for me to watch. I'm covering my ass with some other plays. Good luck with your picks and I appreciate the feedback!

Sounds good bud. Best of luck tonight!

[praisebuddha]

Cyborg down to -210!

[PaperTrail07]

Corey.....just saw that lol good eye

Which Anderson?????? Both are similarly priced dogs haha

[frankieunits2685]

Cyborg at -230

[PaperTrail07]

Kinda Big on Millender early...hope I don't regret that in Brutal fashion....

[freeVICK]

Cyborg down to -210!

can anyone explain this big movement