UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick (August 25, 2018)

[Sanity Check]

So pumped for this card. Michael johnson my most confident pick. Hits so fast and hard.

Michael Johnson is 1-5 since USADA went into effect. If he used steroids/PEDs pre-USADA he might have damaged his body/cardio which could be why he's running into issues similar to other MMA fighters who abused their bodies via roids/peds.

On the flipside, Justin Buccholz is the 3rd head coach to leave team alpha male back in january or february of this year. Buccholz said Cody didn't get proper training for both fights with TJ Dillashaw. There's a chance Andre Fili likewise isn't getting good training with Buccholz being gone.

[Sanity Check]

I see lots of ppl citing James Vick's reach.

Don't forget Gaethje blasts those leg kicks.

Those could nullify any reach advantage Vick has with his hands.

[Sanity Check]

zzz zZZz zZZ

Maybe I should start selling my picks.

I could be the only tout worth something.

[Demonata]

He also gasses fast and quits hard. He’s surely skilled. I don’t blame you for liking him but I’d be careful being too confident in a guy like that.

Nope. Easily could have won against gaechie if he would of hit other fighter s with those bombs. Also losing to khabib doesnt bother me. Fili not even close as good as khabib. He doesn't quit. Khabib makes you quit and tires you. Also anyone could have gassed in a stand-up brawl with gaechi.

[firekillex]

zzz zZZz zZZ

Maybe I should start selling my picks.

I could be the only tout worth something.

m8 get off the drugs were worried about you

[Sanity Check]

m8 get off the drugs were worried about you

Why would you be worried about me?

I'm the only person making money betting MMA over the last few events that posts in this section.

I should be worried about u.

[firekillex]

Why would you be worried about me?

I'm the only person making money betting MMA over the last few events that posts in this section.

I should be worried about u.

best of luck on your recovery
https://www.theonlinerehab.com

[Thrilla]

Background

The show will be the UFC’s third visit to Nebraska, with the previous two events contested in Omaha.

A lightweight bout between former WSOF Lightweight Champion Justin Gaethje and Al Iaquinta was expected to serve as the event headliner. However on June 28, it was announced that Iaquinta withdrew from the bout and was replaced by James Vick.

Bryan Barberena was expected to face Jake Ellenberger at UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes. However, Barberena pulled out of the fight citing a leg injury and the bout was scrapped. The pairing was rescheduled for this event.

Alexa Grasso was expected to face former Invicta FC Strawweight Champion Angela Hill at the event, but pulled out on July 19 due to a knee injury. She was replaced by Cortney Casey.

Antônio Braga Neto was expected to face The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs. Team Cláudia light heavyweight winner Andrew Sanchez at the event. However, Neto was removed from the bout on August 2 for undisclosed personal issues and replaced by Markus Perez.

[Teem]

I believe Krause/Alves FGTD is still at +odds. I like that. Krause is hard to put away and Alves doesn't have too much power. He also gases.

[Teem]

I also like Dober/Tuck FGTD. Both are durable guys. Or Dober DEC. Also will be playing Gaethje ML and Sanchez ML. Sanchez has been training at Tristar and he looks great. Fuk Perez. Was going to play Fig ML but idk yet. Maybe just gonna fade him.

[JIBBBY]

MMA mania write ups -



125 lbs.: Joanne Calderwood vs. Kalindra Faria
The strong Invicta FC run for Joanne Calderwood (11-3) earned her the No. 2 seed on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 20, where she defeated Emily Kagan before falling to Rose Namajunas. She has since struggled to maintain consistency and enters the Octagon on the heels of losses to Jessica Andrade and Cynthia Calvillo.
This will be “Dr. Kneevil’s” first fight in 13 months.
Kalindra Faria (18-7-1) had faced a “Who’s Who” of women’s mixed martial arts (MMA) veterans on her road to the Octagon, including Claudia Gadelha, Vanessa Porto, Jessica Aguilar and Karolina Kowalkiewicz. She ultimately made her UFC debut on a three-fight win streak, but came up short against Mara Romero Borella and Jessica Eye.
Seven of her 12 stoppage wins have come via (technical) knockout.
When Calderwood is on, she’s a match for anyone in the 125-pound division in the standup. That’s the rub, though, as she’s underperformed in the past and seems to lack the venom in her strikes she had during her Invicta FC days. I do expect her to look a lot better at her natural weight class, though, and I wasn’t terribly impressed with Faria’s UFC efforts.
There’s always the worry of the layoff and Calderwood’s inconsistency, but I like the style match up here. She’s busier and cleaner than the Brazilian on the feet and shouldn’t have too much to worry about in the takedown department. JoJo gets back on track by pot-shotting her way to a decision win.
Prediction: Calderwood via unanimous decision

155 lbs.: Drew Dober vs. Jon Tuck

Drew Dober (19-8) has come into his own since a 1-3 UFC start, winning four of his last five bouts. He is coming off of a knockout win over Josh Burkman and subsequent Fight of the Night slugfest against Frank Camacho in Charlotte.
He will give up three inches of height and reach to “The Super Saiyan.”
Jon Tuck (10-4) — once a red-hot prospect going into TUF 15 — has yet to find his footing in the Octagon, going even (4-4) since injury cut short his run on the show. After consecutive split decision losses to Josh Emmett and Damien Brown, Tuck choked out what’s left of Takanori Gomi for his first win since 2015.
This will be his first fight in 14 months.
The book is out on Tuck. For five-to-seven minutes, he’s a fast, athletic beast with one-shot knockout power and a lethal grappling game. For the rest of the fight, he’s a plodding mess saved by top-notch durability. The guy’s had eight UFC fights and gassed in all but one of the ones that went past the first round, so I don’t think that’s something he can fix.
Unfortunately for him, Dober is ridiculously durable and is learning to put some real heat behind his punches. Expect Tuck to look like a world-beater in the first round, only to once again run out of steam and get pieced up on the feet.
Prediction: Dober via unanimous decision

135 lbs.: Rani Yahya vs. Luke Sanders

Rani Yahya (25-9) — who ended his World Extreme Cagefighting (WEC) run on a two-fight losing streak — continues to chug along, winning six of his last seven. His current run includes consecutive submissions of Henry Briones and Russell Doane.
He has submitted 19 opponents by more than a half-dozen different methods.
Luke Sanders (12-2) hit quite the bad luck streak after a dominant debut, falling to Iuri Alcantara and Andre Soukhamthath despite strong starts against both. He finally managed to break the slump in April with a decision over Patrick Williams.
“Cool Hand Luke” has knocked out six professional opponents and has six first-round finishes overall.
Yahya has done extremely well for himself as a miniature Demian Maia, pushing hard for early takedowns and outlasting those opponents he can’t submit in the first two rounds. It makes his fights annoyingly hard to predict, as there’s no real middle ground between his style working or not working, but at least it keeps things interesting.
What has me picking him here against a strong wrestler is Sanders’ fight with Alcântara. Sure, he laid an unholy smackdown on the Brazilian, but he got caught in the most telegraphed leglock I’ve ever seen in the process. That’s a simply unacceptable lapse against someone like Yahya, who’s got the ground game of a bear trap with arms. Yahya drags him down in the first few minutes, takes his back as he tries to scramble up, and finishes him with a rear naked choke.
Prediction: Yahya via first-round submission


170 lbs.: James Krause vs. Warlley Alves
Despite riding a two-fight win streak, James Krause (23-8) elected to try his hand on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 25, where he picked up another two wins before falling to Jesse Taylor in the semifinals. He has since notched victories over Tom Gallicchio and Alex White to move his UFC record to 6-3.
He stands three inches taller than Warlley Alves (13-2) and will have an inch of reach on him.
Alves followed up his dominant TUF: “Brazil” run with four consecutive Octagon victories, only to drop consecutive bouts to Bryan Barberena and Kamaru Usman. He has since gotten back on track with wins over Salim Touahri and Sultan Aliev, the latter of whom he finished via grotesque eye swelling.
Four of his six submission wins have come by guillotine.
Assuming he doesn’t have issues making the cut, I’d prefer to see Krause at 155 pounds. At Welterweight, he’s going to struggle against more physically powerful foes, a bill which Alves fits nicely. He’s got the heavier hands of the two and should be able to power through Krause’s long-range offense to do damage on the inside.
I’m not convinced Krause has the firepower to keep Alves off of him, and judging by that less than 20 percent takedown accuracy, he’s not shutting down Alves the way Usman did. Alves’ steady pressure stifles Krause’s kicks and allows him to beat up the head and legs for a clear decision.
Prediction: Alves via unanimous decision

135 lbs.: Cory Sandhagen vs. Iuri Alcantara

Two knockout victories in a combined 4:07 erased the memory of Cory Sandhagen’s (8-1) lone career loss and brought him to the Octagon this past January on an eight-day turnaround. The short notice proved no issue as he put away Austin Arnett with body shots in the second round.
He’s two inches taller than Iuri Alcantara (36-9), but will give up an inch of reach.
Alcantara’s comeback kneebar of Luke Sanders gave way to upset losses to Brian Kelleher and Alejandro Perez, the former of whom handed “Marajo” his first submission loss since 2009. He went on to prove he was still dangerous by thrashing Joe Soto in 66 seconds to secure his fourth post-fight bonus in his previous six fights.
He has knocked out and submitted 14 opponents apiece.
As great as the Soto knockout was, it feels like Alcantara’s flashes of brilliance are getting fewer and farther between. “Marajo” took a career-altering beating from Sanders before pulling off a Hail Mary submission and sleepwalked through his fight with Perez. He’s also closing in on 40 years old, meaning that freak athleticism may not last much longer.
Sandhagen, meanwhile, is a decade younger and a much smoother striker. His body attack should work well against the explosive Brazilian and Alcantara’s never been a consistent takedown artist. Barring one of the bursts of violence “Marajo” is known for, Sandhagen avoids the big left hand and out-boxes him for 15 minutes.
Prediction: Sandhagen via unanimous decision

185 lbs.: Andrew Sanchez vs. Markus Perez

Andrew Sanchez (9-4) looked poised to make waves in the division after a strong TUF run, dominating Khalil Rountree and defeating Trevor Smith in his first two Octagon appearances. His cardio issues have since reared their heads, allowing underdogs Anthony Smith and Ryan Janes to knock him out in brutal fashion.
He has knocked out five opponents and submitted another two.
Markus Perez (10-1) made the most of his first LFA appearance by choking out future “Contender Series” standout Ian Heinisch to win the promotion’s Middleweight title. He fell to Eryk Anders in his short-notice Octagon debut, but picked up his first UFC victory in May with a submission of James Bochnovic.
“Maluko” steps in for Antonio Braga Neto on three weeks notice.
Sanchez could really be something special if he could learn to pace himself. Solid wrestling and Brazilian jiu-jitsu with serviceable striking is a quality skillset, even it’ll never carry him past the monsters waiting at the top of the division.
I’m going to go out on a limb and say he wins this, even if that seems hypocritical given how I talked about Jon Tuck yesterday. He just seems like he can outclass Perez in the latter’s area of expertise, and I’d imagine that thrashing from Ryan Janes has taught him not to blow his wad early. This is the last shot I’ll give him, but I say Sanchez comes up big with his back against the wall and mixes boxing and takedowns for the win.
Prediction: Sanchez via unanimous decision

170 lbs.: Mickey Gall vs. George Sullivan

Mickey Gall (4-1) rose above his Octagon origins as a C.M. Punk opponent to become a genuine contender with his 2016 submission of Sage Northcutt. He had some good moments, but couldn’t do the same to Randy Brown at UFC 217, resulting his first-ever professional defeat.
All four of his professional mixed martial arts (MMA) wins have come by rear-naked choke.
George Sullivan (17-6) started his UFC career strong with wins over Mike Rhodes and Igor Araujo, closing as the underdog in both fights. He’s just 1-3 since, suffering stoppage losses to Tim Means, Alexander Yakovlev and Niko Price, and faced a two-year layoff because of USADA issues.
“The Silencer” has knocked out 11 professional opponents.
This is a fairly obvious get-well fight for Gall, albeit one with the slightest tinge of danger. Sullivan is a threat on the feet and showed some nasty ground-and-pound against Araujo. That said, he looked hopeless on the ground against Niko Price, who struggles in most aspects of the game that aren’t punching people extremely hard, and has been taken down at least twice in every UFC appearance.
Heck, Dom Waters got him down five times.
Gall’s going to get him to the mat as soon as he wants to, and from there it’s just a matter of time until he takes the back and puts on the squeeze.
Prediction: Gall via first-round submission

[Hugo de Naranja]

I believe Krause/Alves FGTD is still at +odds. I like that. Krause is hard to put away and Alves doesn't have too much power. He also gases.

Alves has the second best Guillotine in the UFC though. I think he chokes out Krause just like Jesse Taylor did.

[Thrilla]

MMA Pros Pick

[JIBBBY]

^^^Justin by KO or Vick by decision.. That's my call like one of the fighters mentioned in the above vid...

Vick could get the KO though, Justin is gonna have to take some shots to get on the inside.. Vick has KO power... Good upper cut...

I'll still have to consider further on how to bet this and not lose my assss...

Leg kicks a factor for sure if the fight goes rounds.. Vick is tall and those skinny long legs could get worked and in a hurry..



Justin is pretty effective and slick when he gets on the inside though especially against taller fighters..

[Demonata]

MICHAEL JOHNSON +100
JAMES VICK -154
ANDREW SANCHEZ -130
1 parlay of 3 Teams
Risk: $126 Win: $609.36

[Demonata]

BRYAN BARBERENA -450
WARLLEY ALVES -390
DREW DOBER -200
ANGELA HILL -135
1 parlay of 4 Teams
Risk: $100 Win: $300.97

[Sanity Check]

MICHAEL JOHNSON +100
JAMES VICK -154
ANDREW SANCHEZ -130
1 parlay of 3 Teams
Risk: $126 Win: $609.36

Wait awhile. Odds on Johnson should improve to better than +100.

Andre Fili took Dennis Bermudez down twice in round 1.

In round 2 Fili took him down twice more.

Fili reversed a takedown of Bermudez and got Bermudez down at least once in round 3.

Showing that type of strong wrestling based attack in his last outing should make Fili a favorite?

[Demonata]

Wait awhile. Odds on Johnson should improve to better than +100.

Andre Fili took Dennis Bermudez down twice in round 1.

In round 2 Fili took him down twice more.

Fili reversed a takedown of Bermudez and got Bermudez down at least once in round 3.

Showing that type of strong wrestling based attack in his last outing should make Fili a favorite?

I don't think bermudez is similar to michael johnson at all. So that fight has no meaning. Michael johnson has this and should be favored.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Wait awhile. Odds on Johnson should improve to better than +100.

Andre Fili took Dennis Bermudez down twice in round 1.

In round 2 Fili took him down twice more.

Fili reversed a takedown of Bermudez and got Bermudez down at least once in round 3.

Showing that type of strong wrestling based attack in his last outing should make Fili a favorite?

Michael Johnson is from the hood, meaning that he grew up in a violent environment and likely has a lot of frustration that will boil over in this fight. Johnson will win by Knockout.

#SanityLogic

[Sanity Check]

I'm picking Johnson (Michael)

#HugoPicks

Michael Johnson is from the hood, meaning that he grew up in a violent environment and likely has a lot of frustration that will boil over in this fight. Johnson will win by Knockout.

#SanityLogic

Once again I'm reminded of this "post common sense" world we living in.

Should I try to educate this man? Nah.

[PaperTrail07]

Vick ITD

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Fili is arguably Johnson's easiest opponent in 4 years. If he can't win this fight, he is likely done.

[Teem]

Alves has the second best Guillotine in the UFC though. I think he chokes out Krause just like Jesse Taylor did.

Damn you Hugo! you always make me second guess myself haha

[JIBBBY]

Vick ITD

You may be right about that.. Tough fight to call..

[Teem]

Everyone made weight. Apparently Vick looked terrible on the scale though.

[WolfTicketDealer]

Hasn’t been a great start since posting my picks. Also slid a few spots in Toutmaster, though still top 25 overall. Not as huge on this card but I do think there’s a few good spots. And away we go:

2018 SBR UFC YTD: -6.91 units

Gaethje vs. Vick
Vick Decision (+477) 1.5 u

Hill vs. Casey
Hill (-135) 1.755 u to win 1.3 u

Figueiredo vs. Moraga
Figueiredo ITD (+325) 0.7 u

Krause vs. Alves
Krause (+315) 0.5 u

Yahya vs. Sanders
Yahya ITD (+166) 1 u
Yahya Round 3 (+900) 0.4 u

Parlay
Sandhagen ML + Vick ML (+139) 2 u

BOL to everyone. I will probably add a play on Sanchez and possibly MJ (though I hate to rely on someone who is a quitter). Definitely think Sandhagen is parlayable as well as Barbarena/Ellenberger WGD.

[JIBBBY]

Everyone made weight. Apparently Vick looked terrible on the scale though.

Glad to see everyone made the weight on this card.. That's usually not the case...

[turbozed]

Cortney Casey vs Angela Hill

It's somewhat rare that a fight that's near a pick'em is so easy to call. Every analysis on the fight (Vivisection, Kalikas, HTB, Stumberg, etc.) appears to have a similar read on the fight. That is: 'Cortney Casey is bigger and more athletic with a better ground game. But her wrestling sucks and she will get outpointed in a stand-up battle against a superior technical striker.'

There's really nothing really wrong with this analysis of course. Casey is definitely bigger, longer, and more athletic. She is a BJJ purple belt with a dangeorus ground game. She has been outwrestled in the past consistently. Hill is the superior striker technically. However, the most important part of the analysis, that Hill will outpoint and will a decision against Casey deserves a closer look, considering the oddsmaker had Hill's implied odds of victory at about 60%.

Sure, Hill by decision is one of the most obvious possible results here, but does it happen more than 60% to justify laying juice on her? I don't think it is.

People love to fade a loser, but it seems like people also avoid fighters that have some talent but fight with frustratingly low IQ. With a 3-5 record in the UFC, and with a majority of those losses being split decisions that she could have easily won (and maybe should have won) had she fought just slightly differently, Casey is both a loser and a frustrating one.

So why, despite analysts unanimously picking Hill, and a general public distaste for all things Casey, has the line moved from Hill being a -165 favorite to close to being a pick'em?

I don't know the answer, but I can tell you that I contributed to that movement by betting Casey as a dog. The generic reasons for the bet are that 'styles make fights' and that the odds justified a play. Like other deplorables including Jessica Eye and Sam Alvey, there's always going to be an inherent discount betting Cortney Casey. The reservations people have betting these fighters is justified. Alvey is too low volume to trust most times. Eye's fight IQ despite her athleticism means one has to really hold their nose before backing her. Yet both recently were underdogs in style matchups that were extremely favorable (Alvey a +200 dog to Prachnio, Eye a +150 dog to Jessica Rose-Clark). Both also won their fights convincingly.

The style matchup here favors Casey and she will need to go even more out of her way to blow her advantages. As the stronger girl, Casey should wear on Hill in the clinch. Hill clinches well but clinch exchanges really sap her cardio, which is already taxed in strict stand-up battles due to her extraneous movement (she slowed down considerably in both her recent fights against Ansaroff and Moroz despite those being mostly kickboxing matches). Casey also has a big grappling advantage if it hits the ground. As mentioned earlier, Casey is a BJJ purple belt, and Hill has no grappling credentials to speak of.

Therefore, to win, Hill has to keep the fight standing and outpoint Casey at range. While that's definitely a possibility here, it's going to be a lot more difficult than the odds suggest. First of all, remove the names and personalities from the equation, and you would have to bet that a girl with a height, reach, and power disadvantage can successfully work a striking game for 15 minutes against a taller, longer, more powerful, and more athletic girl with a grappling advantage.

Hill has done it before and just in her last fight. But that was against Maryna Moroz, the undisputed queen of the air punchers. The troubling thing about that fight was the fact that Moroz was able to land 84 strikes against Hill. That's almost double the amount that Moroz has ever landed against worse strikers. Hill looked better against a much better striker in Nina Ansaroff. This leads me to believe that Hill's outside striking game is less effective against girls with superior reach. Indeed, Hill's kick volume and striking diversity dropped drastically after the 1st round when she realized her safe kickrange was not so safe against the longer and taller fighter. Though she was able to get the nod from the judges in the fight, the 2nd and 3rd rounds were extremely close.

Despite her technical flaws, Casey throws more accurately and with more commitment than Moroz. Though she was wary of the power of the loaded left hook of Herrig, Hill doesn't really have the power or ability to fight moving backwards to scare off forward pressure. We saw this in the Ansaroff fight where Ansaroff's decision to just walk through Hill's strikes to land her own won her the later rounds and the fight. Casey has an outstanding chin (figuratively and literally) and can employ the same strategy if she chooses to. Perhaps a result of joining the MMA Lab, Casey showed an impressive new ability to step forward and land hard shots at range against Waterson when Waterson believed herself to be safely out of range.

Another benefit of joining the MMA Lab is that John Crouch will be in her corner and potentially limiting any mistakes Casey is prone to. It remains to be seen whether the camp change has improved her decision making but it's probably unfair to blame her last split decision loss solely to her decision making and not put most of the blame on some pretty terrible judging. If the judges had followed the criteria and not rewarded a couple of takedowns that resulted in nothing but sub attempts for Casey, then I doubt there would be much criticism of Casey and she may not have been the dog in this spot. Luckily the judges got it wrong and we get a discount on Casey in this fight for it.

While I expect this fight to take place mostly on the feet and in the clinch, I wouldn't be surprised if it ended up on the ground at some point either. In interviews, Casey has acknowledged her grappling advantage and actually trying for takedowns. While we've seen bad defensive wrestling from Casey recently, her takedowns against Stanciu looked very strong. Though Hill will put up much more resistance than Stanciu, one can't say either way whether it will be enough to keep the fight standing. The last person that tried to ground Hill was Ashley Yoder, and she got Hill to the ground three times in that fight despite being a much weaker girl than Casey.

Finally, Hill's cardio is one of her weak points whereas Casey has had no problems fighting hard for 3 rounds (with the exception of her very short notice debut against Calderwood). As mentioned earlier, if Casey can grind on Hill early on, Hill's mobiliity and technical advantages will be diminished later in the fight.

Betting wise, Casey decision above +200 was a great line. Another option is to livebet Casey if Hill barely edges out the first round. Hill should have less success working her game in the later rounds.

[Sanity Check]

Everyone made weight. Apparently Vick looked terrible on the scale though.

[Thrilla]

Weigh-ins + Faceoffs

[Sanity Check]

@ 2:28 and @ 2:43

Why did Cortney Casey and Andre Fili "AHHH" when they stepped off the scale

[Thrilla]

They seem to be the only ones we can see stepping off the scale. (+Gall)

Maybe something on the floor? IDK

[Hugo de Naranja]

Neil Magny was on my flight to Omaha. Talked with him for a few minutes. Super nice guy.

[Hugo de Naranja]

@Turbo: Holly Holm is the true "queen of the air punchers"

[Thrilla]

Top 3 intens face-offs for "badblood inside the distance/under" rule.

1. Johnson - Fili (looked like they wanted to bite eachother)
2. Moraga - Figueiredo
3.Calderwood - Faria

The rest was pretty normal. Except Sanchez vs. Perez which was over-friendly... meaning the "Over-friendly to go to distance/ over the total" rule could be implemented. Also did Perez made Sanchez drink something sinister? Perez looked the most relaxed of all the fighters though.