UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov (July 14, 2018)

[SmellMyFinger]

Vivisection up boys

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQaTLGaOIg4

[Hugo de Naranja]

Jury is tough and all he needs is that KO pathway.. We'll see Hugo.. We aren't on the same page with this fight.. It happens all good though buddy!!!

Any thoughts on some of the other main fights?

[Sirius]

Can't quite remember if 5D offers the total decision prop...
Does 5D have it and if so when usually?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Can't quite remember if 5D offers the total decision prop...
Does 5D have it and if so when usually?

They do. It's up now. Usually gets posted between 5:00 and 7:00 EST the night before the fights.

[Teem]

Mendes has 5 KO/TKO wins in his last 6 his UFC wins including a KO of the toughest man on the planet, Darren Elkins.

Lmao loved this.

[JIBBBY]

Any thoughts on some of the other main fights?

I'm gonna cap this event in the morning and watch weigh ins then... My thoughts would be a little suspect right now...

I like fresh thoughts after weigh ins even if I get beat up on the odds.. That's how I cap these days.. Probably why you don't see me posting much leading up to the event date.. I'll be on it tomorrow morning though..

[Thor4140]

My approach is to not assume a fighter has lost an aspect of their game until we actually see it. Mendes has a big advantage in the wrestling and I think the power will be there to fall back on as well.

I am not totally sure i know what u mean. Are u saying u will still bet him until u see his skills diminish? I rather wait a fight and see he still has it before i risk anything. I hope he hasn’t lost anything because i love the way he fights but this isn’t realistic in my mind. Steroids does one really good thing for the brain and it gives u a set of nuts that u wouldn’t have without them. You just watch Junior fight now. He had that killer instinct and now i don’t see it anymore. Same with Vitor. Take him off roids and he totally loses his balls. The confidence roids gives ya you just can’t replace.

[HurlSweatPants]

Absolutely. Mendes is a Knockout Artist with big power. Jury has a better chin though.

The fake takedown to the uppercut is NASTY.

Adesanya was talking about it on JRE.

[Sirius]

[Shagdogy]

Daaaamn. Literally haven’t capped one fight for this card and now I’m stuck at a cabin in the woods with no WiFi with the wife’s family. This card likely gonna be a hard pass for me other than Esquibel.

Just moved up to #2 in toutmaster too... hopefully I don’t blow the momentum too bad.

[Sirius]

Thanks, the odds on the decisions are brutal for this event...

My top play is Sage by decision at +280

Otto was briefly considered as a pick to slow Super Sage but I am not impressed...Ottow got this opportunity with a nice performance by last beating Pyle who already had one foot out the door.

Sage is too athletic here but will probably/hopefully not finish him...outside of Sage getting a finish
this seems like an easy pick

[Shagdogy]

Thanks, the odds on the decisions are brutal for this event...

My top play is Sage by decision at +280

Otto was briefly considered as a pick to slow Super Sage but I am not impressed...Ottow got this opportunity with a nice performance by last beating Pyle who already had one foot out the door.

Sage is too athletic here but will probably/hopefully not finish him...outside of Sage getting a finish
this seems like an easy pick

Sage has been the butt of many jokes but I actually think he’s slowly becoming a respectable fighter. He’s not there yet but he’s showing it might be possible still for him. Don’t forget he got an absurdly early start in the UFC.

[JIBBBY]

Sage has been the butt of many jokes but I actually think he’s slowly becoming a respectable fighter. He’s not there yet but he’s showing it might be possible still for him. Don’t forget he got an absurdly early start in the UFC.

Tough to gauge Sage's growth in the sport.. He's surely getting better one would think..

[JC2008]

Tough to gauge Sage's growth in the sport.. He's surely getting better one would think..

Agreed... But he's also only still 22 and highly marketable. So we'll see I guess. I would have to assume he'll get the nod and he has indeed looked improved in recent fights.

[Rich Benjamins]

I'm going big on Elias Garcia. In this interview:

<iframe width="854" height="480" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/0EFO5rxUAkc" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>

He seems to really have his stuff together, loves Roufus Sport. The Pettis bros have been doing well too, so that could rub off well on Elias. He also seems to be a lot faster and more deadly than De La Rosa, KOed Adam Antolin who was a winner on DWCS. KOs don't happen too often at 125. De La Rosa seemed to be a little slow in his loss to Tim Elliott.

[kobejoshy]

I like Ottow by Sub as a flyer. Also, Mendes looked awesome against McGregor until he gassed due to short notice fight. I think he can do a similar plan of attack and out-wrestle Jury. Mendes is a lil bulldog and can use his wresting to get under the length of Jury. I'm on Mendes!

[turbozed]

This new Tapology layout sucks IMO

[ken10]

Chad Mendes hasn't beaten any good strikers...

Not that Myles Jury is a world-beater...

Tough call...

[firekillex]

Chad Mendes hasn't beaten any good strikers...

Not that Myles Jury is a world-beater...

Tough call...

cub swanson?
war standing up with prime aldo???

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Mendes is gonna starch this guy.

watched a few youtube videos in regards to his training and diet and believe we will see a hungry and improved version this evening

[UncleChael]

Let's get it.

[turbozed]

I think I'm going to be playing Liz Carmouche here against Jennifer Maia. Anyone want to talk me out of it?

Maia's been undefeated in the her last 7 fights whereas Carmouche lost her 125 lbs debut against Alexis Davis. It's really a testament to Maia's steady style that she's been able to win her fights despite having no real attributes to speak of except for accurate punching and good volume.

The thing the records don't really tell you is poor judging and slow starts. The 5 round Invicta fights she's had have really benefited her because she would've lost her last two against Modafferi and Agnies if they had been 3 round fights. Roxy was up 2-1 on her after 3, and IMO Agnies won the first 3 rounds. We've seen how poorly she can do in 3 round fights with her slow starts as she lost to Deanna Bennet around 3.5 years ago. I'm not sure she has changed her style or improved much since then. Training at Chute Boxe certainly can't help.

Carmouche is a bit like Jessica Eye in that she has all the attributes to be a great fighter (strong, powerful grappling, submission ability, fast, lesbian) but ends up shitting the bed often. She was dominant in the 1st two rounds against Chookagian but then got lazy eating a headkick and almost getting finished in the 3rd round. Against Alexis Davis, she didn't get going until halfway into the fight and it ended up costing her.

Despite her questionable decisions this looks like a good style matchup for Carmouche. Despite her accurate boxing, Maia has a very upright and plodding stance. This makes her relatively easy to takedown. Both Roxy and Agnies were able to score takedowns against her despite neither being anywhere near having the strength and explosiveness of Carmouche. Carmouche has also been employing an in-out striking game with a lot of leg kicks and distance striking at range. When she commits to a TD, she is very deep into the hips of her opponents. This is going to be a good strategy against Maia who's reach is limited and won't be able to counter Carmouche unless she moves forward with a multiple punch combination. Carmouche should be able to draw these out and then change levels for a TD.

On the ground, Maia hasn't showed much. She was kept on her back by Roxy and Agnies and wasn't able to reverse positions on her own in those situations. Though Carmouche doesn't do much on the ground, she is a BJJ purple belt and a decent grappler, winning in grappling competitions like EBI. I think she'll have a clear advantage when she gets the fight there.

In clinch distance, Maia sometimes looks to pin girls up against the cage and stall the fight out a bit. I don't think this will work very well against Carmouche who, as mentioned earlier, is very strong and was overpowering Miesha Tate for 2 rounds against the cage.

Carmouche's cardio has been suspect in the past since she's dropped a lot of 3rd rounds in a big way after winning early. However, she looked very fresh in the 3rd round against Davis and dominated the 3rd in that fight.

I think we're getting a good price on Carmouche here who stylistically and physically should be a bigger favorite in this fight. Maia is ranked at the top of the 125lbs division because of her win streak, but this just seems like a bad matchup for her.

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 133: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov Picks:
Jodie Esquibel Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Elias Garcia Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Liz Carmouche Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Kurt Holobaugh Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Justin Scoggins Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Alexander Volkanovski Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Alejandro Perez Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Marion Reneau Round 3 Submission (Triangle Choke)
Chad Mendes Round 1 KO (Punches)
Niko Price Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Dennis Bermudez Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Sage Northcutt Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Blagoy Ivanov Round 1 TKO (Punches)

[Shagdogy]

I think I'm going to be playing Liz Carmouche here against Jennifer Maia. Anyone want to talk me out of it?

Maia's been undefeated in the her last 7 fights whereas Carmouche lost her 125 lbs debut against Alexis Davis. It's really a testament to Maia's steady style that she's been able to win her fights despite having no real attributes to speak of except for accurate punching and good volume.

The thing the records don't really tell you is poor judging and slow starts. The 5 round Invicta fights she's had have really benefited her because she would've lost her last two against Modafferi and Agnies if they had been 3 round fights. Roxy was up 2-1 on her after 3, and IMO Agnies won the first 3 rounds. We've seen how poorly she can do in 3 round fights with her slow starts as she lost to Deanna Bennet around 3.5 years ago. I'm not sure she has changed her style or improved much since then. Training at Chute Boxe certainly can't help.

Carmouche is a bit like Jessica Eye in that she has all the attributes to be a great fighter (strong, powerful grappling, submission ability, fast, lesbian) but ends up shitting the bed often. She was dominant in the 1st two rounds against Chookagian but then got lazy eating a headkick and almost getting finished in the 3rd round. Against Alexis Davis, she didn't get going until halfway into the fight and it ended up costing her.

Despite her questionable decisions this looks like a good style matchup for Carmouche. Despite her accurate boxing, Maia has a very upright and plodding stance. This makes her relatively easy to takedown. Both Roxy and Agnies were able to score takedowns against her despite neither being anywhere near having the strength and explosiveness of Carmouche. Carmouche has also been employing an in-out striking game with a lot of leg kicks and distance striking at range. When she commits to a TD, she is very deep into the hips of her opponents. This is going to be a good strategy against Maia who's reach is limited and won't be able to counter Carmouche unless she moves forward with a multiple punch combination. Carmouche should be able to draw these out and then change levels for a TD.

On the ground, Maia hasn't showed much. She was kept on her back by Roxy and Agnies and wasn't able to reverse positions on her own in those situations. Though Carmouche doesn't do much on the ground, she is a BJJ purple belt and a decent grappler, winning in grappling competitions like EBI. I think she'll have a clear advantage when she gets the fight there.

In clinch distance, Maia sometimes looks to pin girls up against the cage and stall the fight out a bit. I don't think this will work very well against Carmouche who, as mentioned earlier, is very strong and was overpowering Miesha Tate for 2 rounds against the cage.

Carmouche's cardio has been suspect in the past since she's dropped a lot of 3rd rounds in a big way after winning early. However, she looked very fresh in the 3rd round against Davis and dominated the 3rd in that fight.

I think we're getting a good price on Carmouche here who stylistically and physically should be a bigger favorite in this fight. Maia is ranked at the top of the 125lbs division because of her win streak, but this just seems like a bad matchup for her.

You're gold. I'm on Maia and you're batting 1.000 when going head to head with me on WMMA. I really didn't cap this fight though... just took a WMMA underdog for fun. Now you make me wish I hadn't. I just haven't been able to cap any fights and wanted a little something anyway.

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 133: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov

Fight Pass Prelims:

Fight #1: Esquibel vs. Aguilar
Esquibel (+115) 2.5u
Esquibel -3.5 (+310) 1.5u

Fight #2: De La Rosa vs. Garcia (DEBUT)
No Bet

Fight #3: Carmouche vs. Maia (DEBUT)
Carmouche ITD (+480) 1u
Carmouche KO/TKO (+745) .5u

Fox Sports 1 Prelims:

Fight #4: Holobaugh vs. Barcelos (DEBUT)
Holobaugh ITD (+155) 1u

Fight #5: Scoggins vs. Nurmagomedov (DEBUT)
Scoggins (+115) 1u
Scoggins Decision (+275) 1u

Hedge:
Nurmagomedov Submission (+710) .5u

Fight #6: Volkanovski vs. Elkins
Volkanovski -3.5 (+100) 4u
Volkanovski+Elkins Won’t Go Distance (+170) 1u
Volkanovski KO/TKO (+300) 2u
Volkanovski Round 1 (+450) .5u

Hedge:
Elkins ITD (+693) 1u

Fight #7: Perez vs. Wineland
Perez Decision (+145) 1u
Perez KO/TKO (+505) .5u
Perez+Wineland Draw (+7000) .1u

Hedge:
Wineland KO/TKO (+482) 1u

Main Card:

Fight #8: Reneau vs. Zingano
Reneau (-125) 1.875u to win 1.5u
Reneau+Zingano WGD (+165) 2u
Reneau Round 2 (+850) .5u
Reneau Round 3 (+1425) .5u
Reneau+Zingano Draw (+6500) .25u

Hedge(s):
Zingano ITD (+427) 1u
Zingano Round 3 (+1750) .5u

Fight #9: Mendes vs. Jury
Mendes (-150) 3u to win 2u
Mendes ITD (+255) 1u
Mendes+Jury Won’t Start Round 2 (+284) 1.5u
Mendes KO/TKO (+360) .5u

Hedge(s):
Jury KO/TKO (+450) 1u

Fight #10: Price vs. Brown
Price ITD (+250) 2u
Price Submission (+500) .5u

Fight #11: Bermudez vs. Glenn
Bermudez -3.5 (+200) 1u

Hedge:
Glenn ITD (+525) 1u

Fight #12: Northcutt vs. Ottow
Northcutt Decision (+200) 1u
Northcutt Round 1 (+400) .5u
Northcutt Submission (+1155) .5u

Hedge:
Ottow Submission (+575) 1u

Fight #13: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov
Ivanov KO/TKO (+320) 1u

Straight Parlays:
Volkanovski/Perez (+124) 2u
Volkanovski/Reneau (+132) 1u

Prop Parlays:
Esquibel+Aguilar GD/Perez+Wineland GD (+113) 2.5u

Full Card Props:
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+190) 1u
Over 9.5 Fights Go Distance (+658) .5u

Multi-Event Parlays:
None

[Hugo de Naranja]

Let's get it.

Who you got tonight Chael?

[SmellMyFinger]

perez by decision +500 on my book , where did you get him at +145 hugo ?

[turbozed]

You're gold. I'm on Maia and you're batting 1.000 when going head to head with me on WMMA. I really didn't cap this fight though... just took a WMMA underdog for fun. Now you make me wish I hadn't. I just haven't been able to cap any fights and wanted a little something anyway.

I just took a big L on Moyle at the last event and was very wrong there so not feeling too confident at the moment.

Feeling better about this one than Esquibel though. And I went smaller on esquibel as a slight favorite than when she was a slight dog last time.

Good luck to us all

[Demonata]

I wish we knew who would win before the fights start. Would be so much easier to bet.

[Rich Benjamins]

I'm very surprised Zingano is a dog vs Reneau. Don't think that's right and I'm betting on Zingano. Reneau has faced much weaker competition than Zingano, and Zingano has been a title contender for awhile. I expect Zingano to win a convincing decision.

[Rich Benjamins]

I wish we knew who would win before the fights start. Would be so much easier to bet.

I know, right? And then after the fights are over it seems so obvious who you should've picked.

[Hugo de Naranja]

perez by decision +500 on my book , where did you get him at +145 hugo ?

No way. Send me a screenshot of that please. 5Dimes.

[Shagdogy]

I'm very surprised Zingano is a dog vs Reneau. Don't think that's right and I'm betting on Zingano. Reneau has faced much weaker competition than Zingano, and Zingano has been a title contender for awhile. I expect Zingano to win a convincing decision.

I feel like she has the TDs for it. May join you here for 1u. Haven't been able to cap this event so I'm just kind of running off memory and gut leans. Zingano felt right in this matchup unless she's a shot fighter. Reneau is solid off of her back, but Zingano has been able to avoid all subs but Rousey's armbar, so I guess a small bet is okay.

[Shagdogy]

Fight Night 133 Bets:

Esquibel -130, 2.5u to win 1.92u
Maia +115, 1u to win 1.15
Scoggins +120, .83u to win 1u
Volkanovski -250, 2.5u to win 1u

That's it for now. Little to no research for this card. Fingers crossed for a decent night. Good luck everyone.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Fight Night 133 Bets:

Esquibel -130, 2.5u to win 1.92u
Maia +115, 1u to win 1.15
Scoggins +120, .83u to win 1u
Volkanovski -250, 2.5u to win 1u

That's it for now. Little to no research for this card. Fingers crossed for a decent night. Good luck everyone.

Sounds like we've got a consensus play on Esquibel.