UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier (July 07, 2018)

[turbozed]

Ostovich gave up after she missed the armbar. Still a decent price for a coinflip

[turbozed]

Back to evens after hitting the +250 Di Chirico live bet. Might've gotten away with one.

[Richard Clock]

Has the Klose/Vannata fight been broken down anywhere in this thread? Still keeping my volume on the low side on these cards because of my lack of research time, but I think Klose is great value at his current price of +160 on 5D. Klose burned me in his last fight vs Teymur (who Vannata also lost to), but I will still contend that he is still underrated. It would be a mistake not to consider him for a bet just because he lost me money in the past. I came away very impressed with his performance vs Diakese, just a very well rounded and fundamentally sound fighter when he is locked on. Obviously, assumptions can never be made, but I expect him to come out more focused in this fight after embarrassing himself vs Teymur. Vannata is undoubtedly talented, but considering their previous performances/overall resume/matchup stylistically, I don't see one fighter having a huge edge over the other here. The difference is one fighter is a decent sized underdog and probably underestimated by the betting public who will be hesitant to back him, and the other maybe a tad overrated after some exciting, if not imperfect, performances/finishes.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Has the Klose/Vannata fight been broken down anywhere in this thread? Still keeping my volume on the low side on these cards because of my lack of research time, but I think Klose is great value at his current price of +160 on 5D. Klose burned me in his last fight vs Teymur (who Vannata also lost to), but I will still contend that he is still underrated. It would be a mistake not to consider him for a bet just because he lost me money in the past. I came away very impressed with his performance vs Diakese, just a very well rounded and fundamentally sound fighter when he is locked on. Obviously, assumptions can never be made, but I expect him to come out more focused in this fight after embarrassing himself vs Teymur. Vannata is undoubtedly talented, but considering their previous performances/overall resume/matchup stylistically, I don't see one fighter having a huge edge over the other here. The difference is one fighter is a decent sized underdog and probably underestimated by the betting public who will be hesitant to back him, and the other maybe a tad overrated after some exciting, if not imperfect, performances/finishes.

Paging Shaggy

[JAKEPEAVY21]

WooHoooo
I loved that Predator - Black Beast stare downn!

Black Beast is going to get starched..

[Shagdogy]

Has the Klose/Vannata fight been broken down anywhere in this thread? Still keeping my volume on the low side on these cards because of my lack of research time, but I think Klose is great value at his current price of +160 on 5D. Klose burned me in his last fight vs Teymur (who Vannata also lost to), but I will still contend that he is still underrated. It would be a mistake not to consider him for a bet just because he lost me money in the past. I came away very impressed with his performance vs Diakese, just a very well rounded and fundamentally sound fighter when he is locked on. Obviously, assumptions can never be made, but I expect him to come out more focused in this fight after embarrassing himself vs Teymur. Vannata is undoubtedly talented, but considering their previous performances/overall resume/matchup stylistically, I don't see one fighter having a huge edge over the other here. The difference is one fighter is a decent sized underdog and probably underestimated by the betting public who will be hesitant to back him, and the other maybe a tad overrated after some exciting, if not imperfect, performances/finishes.

I think Vannata has better speed, variety, angles on the feet for sure. Klose is super straight line and not very diverse. Clear edge to Vannata in space.

Klose maybe purely a bit stronger but Vannata has been very difficult to take and keep down so I don’t see Klose having success there.

Klose’s advantage is in the clinch. That’s about his only clear edge IMO and I don’t think it’ll be enough to win him the fight.

A lot of ppl think Vannata has a bad gas tank but I don’t think we can say that yet. He has fought Ferguson on 2 weeks notice, Teymur, and Green. Those fights were incredibly high output fights and don’t necessarily mean Lando doesn’t have gas. If he gasses tonight I think we can say it’s a real thing.

All in all, I like Vannata a lot for the price. I think he and Saki are best MLs on the card not including pure value like Lewis.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

I think I'm going to put an entry in this Draftkings MMA $150k Uppercut..$10 entry nice value.

30k to 1st place.

[JIBBBY]

Black Beast is going to get starched..

I agree, fading Black Beast myself..

[JIBBBY]

This is how I'm playing the card fellas, got family in town so probably won't be posting live tonight.. I'll try to pop in and out.. Just busy weekend..

All bets around $100 a pop.. Only one hedge with this event.. Keeping it simple and just going for it.. Good luck everyone!!!


1) No bet pass
2) Gilbert by sub
3) Vannatta by Dec
4) Assuncoa straight
5) Costa by KO
6) Roundtree by KO
7) Pettis ITD/ Hedged Chiesa by SUB
8) Paul Felder ITD
9) Ngannou by KO
10) Stipe by Decision

[Hugo de Naranja]

This is how I'm playing the card fellas, got family in town so probably won't be posting live tonight.. I'll try to pop in and out.. Just busy weekend..

All bets around $100 a pop.. Only one hedge with this event.. Keeping it simple and just going for it.. Good luck everyone!!!


1) No bet pass
2) Gilbert by sub
3) Vannatta by Dec
4) Assuncoa straight
5) Costa by KO
6) Roundtree by KO
7) Pettis ITD/ Hedged Chiesa by SUB
8) Paul Felder ITD
9) Ngannou by KO
10) Stipe by Decision

Best of luck buddy!

[JIBBBY]

Best of luck buddy!

Thanks Hugo, same back to you.. No doubt you'll probably profit again with this event just like you did in last nights event.. Keep up the stellar play buddy, I'm impressed lately, you're on it!!!

[Kermit]

This is how I'm playing the card fellas, got family in town so probably won't be posting live tonight.. I'll try to pop in and out.. Just busy weekend..

All bets around $100 a pop.. Only one hedge with this event.. Keeping it simple and just going for it.. Good luck everyone!!!


1) No bet pass
2) Gilbert by sub
3) Vannatta by Dec
4) Assuncoa straight
5) Costa by KO
6) Roundtree by KO
7) Pettis ITD/ Hedged Chiesa by SUB
8) Paul Felder ITD
9) Ngannou by KO
10) Stipe by Decision

Felder is my biggest bet on the card.

[JIBBBY]

Felder is my biggest bet on the card.

I like it too.. Felder has the granite chin and is tough as nails.. I think he weathers the early storm then finishes Perry.. Felder just a better seasoned fighter I believe right now..

Perry is tough though and will come out swinging and swinging hard.. Felder better be ready...

Main Card



Paul
Felder
"The Irish Dragon"
vs
Mike
Perry
"Platinum"

UNITED STATES
Country
UNITED STATES

15-3-0
Record
11-3-0

67%
KO/TKO
100%

7%
SUB
0%

27%
DEC
9%

71 in
Height
70 in

170 lbs
Weight
170 lbs

70 in
Reach
71 in

40 in
Leg Reach
39 in

[UncleChael]

I cant wait to see Ngannou get smashed tonight.

[JC2008]

I cant wait to see Ngannou get smashed tonight.

- Can't say I'd be surprised. Noticed Ngannou dropped from -450 to -400. I can see Lewis winning a decision by basically holding FN against the fence in an ugly fight.

[Sanity Check]

Late action on Whitmire, Burns, Perry, Hall, Rountree, DC and Lewis.

Should parlay them all for $1 just in case?

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Draftkings lineup:

Miocic
Hooker
Saki
Millender
Chiesa
Lewis

[BIGDAY]

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier Picks:
Jamie Moyle Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Dan Hooker Round 2 KO (Knee)
Curtis Millender Round 2 KO (Head Kick)
Lando Vannata Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Raphael Assuncao Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Paulo Costa Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Gokhan Saki Round 1 KO (Punch)
Michael Chiesa Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Paul Felder Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Derrick Lewis Round 3 TKO (Punches)
Stipe Miocic Round 1 TKO (Punches)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier

Fight Pass Prelims:

Fight #1: Moyle vs. Whitmire
Moyle ITD (+425) 1u

Fight #2: Hooker vs. Burns
Hooker (-125) 2.5u to win 2u
Hooker ITD (+203) 1u
Hooker Round 2 (+575) .5u

Hedge:
Burns KO/TKO (+855) .5u

Fox Sports 1 Prelims:

Fight #3: Millender vs. Griffin
Millender ITD (+245) 1u
Millender Round 2 (+675) .5u

Fight #4: Vannata vs. Klose
Vannata (-170) 3.4u to win 2u
Vannata KO/TKO (+270) 1u
Vannata Round 1 (+450) 1u

Hedge:
Klose Decision (+251) 1u

Fight #5: Assuncao vs. Font
Parlays

Hedge:
Font ITD (+370) 1u

Fight #6: Costa vs. Hall
Hall (+298) 1.5u
Hall Round 3 (+1525) .5u

Main Card:

Fight #7: Saki vs. Rountree
Saki (-140) 9.075u to win 6.5u
Saki Decision (+920) .5u
Saki Submission (+2125) .5u

Hedge:
Rountree Round 1 (+325) 1.5u

Fight #8: Chiesa vs. Pettis
Chiesa+Pettis Won’t Go Distance (+100) 2u
Chiesa -3.5 (+110) 1u
Chiesa Round 2 (+575) .5u
Chiesa KO/TKO (+1150) .5u

Fight #9: Felder vs. Perry
Felder Scorecards = No Action (-137) 3.425u to win 2.5u
Felder Decision (+314) 1u
Felder Round 3 (+1000) .5u
Felder+Perry Draw (+8000) .1u

Fight #10: Ngannou vs. Lewis
Lewis (+290) 2u
Lewis KO/TKO (+490) 1u
Lewis Decision (+1050) .5u
Lewis Round 3 (+1700) .5u

Hedge:
Ngannou Round 2 (+400) .75u

Fight #11: Miocic (C) vs. Cormier (C-LHW)
Miocic -5.5 (-120) 1.8u to win 1.5u
Miocic Round 1 (+425) 1.5u
Miocic Decision (+380) 1u

Hedge(s):
Cormier Decision (+500) .5u
Cormier Split/Majority Decision (+1245) .5u

Straight Parlays:
Perry+Medeiros WGD/Ngannou+Lewis WGD (+100) 2u
Perry/Saki (+113) 2u
Chiesa/Holloway (+147) 1u
Hooker/Holloway (+158) 1u
Assuncao/Millender (+172) 2.5u
Assuncao/Chiesa (+174) 1u
Hooker/Felder (+199) 1u
Moyle/Hooker/Millender (+359) .5u
Hall/Lewis (+1460) .5u
Saki/Chiesa/Felder/Lewis/Miocic (+2553) .5u

Prop Parlays:
Costa+Hall Won’t Go Distance/Felder (+127) 1u
Vannata/Assuncao/Costa ITD (+332) .5u
Hooker ITD/Millender ITD/Vannata ITD (+3360) .25u

Full Card Props:
Over 5.5 Fights Go Distance (+180) 1.25u
Over 6.5 Fights Go Distance (+515) .5u
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+1620) .25u

Multi-Event Parlays:
Dern/Holloway (+112) 1u
Pedro+Saint Preux Won’t Go Distance/Saki (+144) 2u

[JIBBBY]

- Can't say I'd be surprised. Noticed Ngannou dropped from -450 to -400. I can see Lewis winning a decision by basically holding FN against the fence in an ugly fight.

I can see Lewis getting cracked on the chin and dropped especially when he begins to gas.. Ngannou in good shape going into this one... Lighter and quicker on his feet..

[Shagdogy]

Out in Vegas for the card, playing it a bit differently than I normally would:

Vannata -170, 5u
Saki -130, 4u
Cormier +190, 1u
Lewis +290, 1u
Hall +295, 1u

Hooker + Millender + Lewis/Ngannou o1.5 parlay +617, .5u

Been feeling a bit lately like I wanna scale back the volume betting and just go heavier on a few MLs I really like. Ease up the stress of betting so many fights a little bit. Good luck everyone! Gonna be in the arena so hopefully we have something to enjoy at the very least.

[JIBBBY]

Damn all you guys are on Hooker and Lewis..

Jibs going the other way with those.. Not sure what you guys are seeing? Burns at 14-2 has great subs and crack a bit standing..

Lewis has the bad back, not in great shape, probably limited training and will gas and be a standing punching bag...



Dan
Hooker
"The Hangman"
vs
Gilbert
Burns
"Durinho"

NEW ZEALAND
Country
BRASIL

16-7-0
Record
14-2-0

41%
KO/TKO
43%

47%
SUB
50%

12%
DEC
7%

72 in
Height
70 in

155 lbs
Weight
155 lbs

75 in
Reach
71 in

42 in
Leg Reach
39 in

[Sanity Check]

I'm wondering if Hooker will be like Alexander Gustafsson landing those knees on DC and Jimi Manuwa.

Those knees against shorter fighters are devastating but will he be as successful fighting taller ppl.

[JC2008]

I can see Lewis getting cracked on the chin and dropped especially when he begins to gas.. Ngannou in good shape going into this one... Lighter and quicker on his feet..

I hope you're right.

[turbozed]

Big line drop on Costa/Hall. People hammering Hall. Word on the street is that Costa has been sick all week. FYI

[stonebanks]

NO WAY does Lewis win this fight

[BIGDAY]

Lewis gets curb stomped. And I’m a fan of his.

[JC2008]

Well first dog is gonna cash!

[Richard Clock]

I think Vannata has better speed, variety, angles on the feet for sure. Klose is super straight line and not very diverse. Clear edge to Vannata in space.

Klose maybe purely a bit stronger but Vannata has been very difficult to take and keep down so I don’t see Klose having success there.

Klose’s advantage is in the clinch. That’s about his only clear edge IMO and I don’t think it’ll be enough to win him the fight.

A lot of ppl think Vannata has a bad gas tank but I don’t think we can say that yet. He has fought Ferguson on 2 weeks notice, Teymur, and Green. Those fights were incredibly high output fights and don’t necessarily mean Lando doesn’t have gas. If he gasses tonight I think we can say it’s a real thing.

All in all, I like Vannata a lot for the price. I think he and Saki are best MLs on the card not including pure value like Lewis.

I think I will probably lay a unit down on Saki as well. I don't get the respect by the betting public for Rountree, made some money fading him in his last fight.

I certainly agree that Vannata has the advantage standing, but I think Klose is a different test for Vannata as a clinch grappler compared to his recent opponents. I don't have a strong opinion on Vannata's cardio one way or another, but I think Klose is the type of relentless grappler that will test Vannata's gas tank and stifle his impressive ranged attacks. I feel strongly that Klose is being underrated here after an uncharacteristic performance, so I like him as a value play, but I still wouldn't be shocked if Vannata gets his hand raised. BOL !

[Richard Clock]

Only two bets for me so far. Haven't had the time to do much research of late, so I am trying to keep my volume lower. Feel good about both bets. May add on a Saki bet as my last chance to fade Rountree, and probably some smaller live bets as the wine bottle gets less full. BOL to all!

[Richard Clock]

No money on this one, but maybe people are underrating Griffin a little after losing to two high level fighters, and overrating Millender after one win against a veteran far past his prime?

[Fire in da hole]

How is everyone tonight?

Let make some money

[Fire in da hole]

Lewis gets curb stomped. And I’m a fan of his.

I agree, Lewis gets KOed tonight

[spurginobili]

TY Millender - finished a parlay