UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman (May 19, 2018)

[boss_of_um]

Another parlay completer win. Keep the train rolling@!

[Hugo de Naranja]

I got hurt badly by Botelho but I'm bouncing back...due to my faith in Hugo!

5/19/18 9:01pm	$43.25	$332.54	$375.79	Win	2 Team Parlay
					Win	5/19/18 8:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1707 Pantoja wins by 3 round decision +223* vs Not Pantoja by 3 round decision
	5/19/18 9:38pm				Win	5/19/18 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1602 Michel Prazeres +169* vs Zak Cummings

5/19/18 9:39pm	$37.65	$105.42	Open	2 Team Parlay
				Win	5/19/18 8:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1611 Prazeres wins by 3 round decision +280* vs Not Prazeres by 3 round decision

That's what I like to see.

[SmellMyFinger]

got nothing on the next fight so just gonna root for my fellow degens, most of you tailing hugo on the lee sub prop, GL all !

[Shagdogy]

Can't trust either guy (Rivas or Cannetti). Need to avoid. I'm typing this out almost to hold myself accountable, since I think there's value in the line on Cannetti but I need to know better than to trust either one of these crappy fighters.

I may have to eat my words here and drop a 1u bet on Rivas against my instincts. I don't see much special in his skillset but I've seen too many people I respect picking Rivas with confidence. I generally don't outright tail plays, but I'm starting to feel like I just whiffed on my analysis of this one after seeing/reading other opinions out there. I may have been swayed.

[SmellMyFinger]

tried to cap this fight "really hard" but being hard did not help me reach any meaningful conclusion so i gave up

[Shagdogy]

Super SQUARE parlay added (stupid. I know.): Barzola -190, win 1u
Botelho -165, win1u
Prazeres +145, win 1u
Benitez + Silva Parlay -113, win 1.25u
Benitez + Reyes parlay +120, risk 1u
Pantoja + Benitez u2.5 parlay +243, win 1.5u
Grasso/Suarez won’t go to decision +175, win 1u
Cannetti/Rivas won’t go to decision -105, win 1u
Benitez sub +222, risk 1u
Rivas sub + Pantoja sub parlay, +3090, risk .25uLuque + Suarez + Usman parlay -120, win 1u

Had to do it. Added:

Rivas -160, win 1u

[Richard Clock]

Added on Macedo Live Bet at +450 - Risking 25

[Hugo de Naranja]

https://twitter.com/mikefridley/status/998034991035674624

Here's how the judges had it for the Prazeres+Cummings fight.

[Thrilla]

Cannetti vs. Rivas

50/50 terms of skill, but Rivas has the reach, home and youth advantage. 12 years younger.

Sprinkle on Rivas

[frankieunits2685]

lets go!!!!

[Hugo de Naranja]

Live Bet:
Rivas (+130) 1u

[Shagdogy]

Rivas sucks. If he wins this fight it will be simply because Cannetti is such a good loser, because Rivas really can't earn this fight. Basic, amateur mistakes left and right.

Should've trusted my analysis for this one. Kicking myself right now.

[PhoKing]

Gotta feel like a shitbag for losing to a 38 year old in your home country’s first UFC event. Probably won’t have another chance like this to shine

[Hugo de Naranja]

29-28 Cannetti on my card. Bad outcome for me. Rivas refused to push a pace even when Cannetti tired.

[the1yankee]

Lol
RIVAS= FUKING CAN!!

[frankieunits2685]

disappointment for Rivas...

[Thrilla]

Cannonier J. - Reyes D.

Next

Under 2.5 here -110. This has fight of the night potential.

[Shagdogy]

Super SQUARE parlay added (stupid. I know.): Barzola -190, win 1u
Botelho -165, win1u
Prazeres +145, win 1u
Benitez + Silva Parlay -113, win 1.25u
Benitez + Reyes parlay +120, risk 1u
Pantoja + Benitez u2.5 parlay +243, win 1.5u

May add some more. Been busy out of town with a family wedding. If anyone sees any obvious value I’m missing tip me off. My mind has been elsewhere for this one.

Added:
Grasso/Suarez won’t go to decision +175, win 1u
Cannetti/Rivas won’t go to decision -105, win 1u
Benitez sub +222, risk 1u
Rivas sub + Pantoja sub parlay, +3090, risk .25u

I definitely meant to bet that Benitez sub line to WIN 1u. Damn. More than I wanted on that.

Luque + Suarez + Usman parlay -120, win 1u

Screwed up the copy/paste on my last post so I'm just re-upping this for my own record keeping. On that note:

Added Rivas -160, 1.6u

[frankieunits2685]

next fight should be better

[Shagdogy]

I can't even express how pissed I am at myself for how I played that fight. In my notes and analysis I literally wrote everything I could to convince myself NOT to bet that fight, and then picked Cannetti by decision as the most likely outcome.

Then what do I do? Go and bet fight won't go to decision AND Rivas. Literally the exact opposite of my analysis and got burned. I've said it so many times - "bet what you see" - and still I can't listen to my own advice and I payed for it. So damn stupid. Man I'm pissed.

[SmellMyFinger]

anyone on canonier here ?

[SOUP]

Sounds like the crowd left haha.

[frankieunits2685]

anyone on canonier here ?

nope

[Hugo de Naranja]

Reyes is legit! Cashed the KO/TKO + R1

[the1yankee]

Reyes is legit! Cashed the KO/TKO + E1

Fo sho!!

Guy is fast smart n strong

[the1yankee]

Sounds like the crowd left haha.

Cannonier was cannonized.

May need chicken �� soup for the soul!

[Thrilla]

Under 2.5 should have been -350 range imo.

I max bet the -110. Opened +110, incredible.

[SmellMyFinger]

not the best night for me ... need grasso and suarez not to go the distance to break even, not feeling too confident i can dodge the losing night though

[the1yankee]

Under 2.5 should have been -350 range imo.

I max bet the -110. Opened +110, incredible.

Nice hit!

Found a # that was off, n slammed it

[boss_of_um]

499088723-1	5/19/18 11:41pm	$50.00	$43.48	Open	2 Team Parlay
				Win	5/19/18 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1201 Jared Cannonier/Dominick Reyes Under 2½ -115*
499088578-1	5/19/18 11:39pm	$40.00	$103.60	Open	2 Team Parlay
				Win	5/19/18 10:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1221 Reyes wins in round 1 +259* vs Any other result
499087271-1	5/19/18 11:35pm	$55.00	$68.75	Open	2 Team Parlay
				Win	5/19/18 10:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1209 Reyes wins inside distance +125* vs Not Reyes inside distance

Got 3 parlays now to finish from that fight. Thanks again Hugo!

[ELNATURAL]

Grasso to win

[the1yankee]

not the best night for me ... need grasso and suarez not to go the distance to break even, not feeling too confident i can dodge the losing night though

GL Mr nolte!

I got reyes/usman ITD

LET'S GET IT

[Hugo de Naranja]

Added Parlay:
Suarez+Grasso Under 2.5/Usman+Maia Over 2.5 (+494) .5u

[Hugo de Naranja]

not the best night for me ... need grasso and suarez not to go the distance to break even, not feeling too confident i can dodge the losing night though

Think this one gets finished. Might be worth Doubling Down

[Hugo de Naranja]

499088723-1	5/19/18 11:41pm	$50.00	$43.48	Open	2 Team Parlay
				Win	5/19/18 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1201 Jared Cannonier/Dominick Reyes Under 2½ -115*
499088578-1	5/19/18 11:39pm	$40.00	$103.60	Open	2 Team Parlay
				Win	5/19/18 10:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1221 Reyes wins in round 1 +259* vs Any other result
499087271-1	5/19/18 11:35pm	$55.00	$68.75	Open	2 Team Parlay
				Win	5/19/18 10:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1209 Reyes wins inside distance +125* vs Not Reyes inside distance

Got 3 parlays now to finish from that fight. Thanks again Hugo!

No problem buddy