UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya (March 03, 2018)

[TPowell]

Line for Cat has moved up to +185 on 5D. Already have almost a unit at +170. I am very surprised by the degree of action on Ketlen here. I am definitely going to put a little more on Cat at +185 or better, just not sure how much higher this is going to rise. Maybe I am missing something in my analysis, but I don't see Viera as this big of a fave here.

Hoping for right at +200 personally but I agree

[Teem]

Remember what Frankie did to Yair last year? That was fun...

[JAKEPEAVY21]

does anyone think that Kunitskaya has a snowball's chance in hell to beat Cyborg?

I'm thinking of putting a little on her

[Teem]

You guys think Dern will lock a sub in quick or Yoder will scramble enough to survive until round 2? Also, couldn't find any tape on this guy Dariush is fighting. Idk if the kid is tough enough to take it to decision or will get sub'd/KO'd late...

[Fence]

Hoping for right at +200 personally but I agree

Agree - did a nice parlay with dern - 1 unit to win 2.35 - I understand why Vieira is favored because of the long layoffs, age and uncertainty but Cat still has a decent amount of years of training over her and recently moved to a more legit camp (Alliance) - if she can keep this technical and to her strengths and actually stick to the gameplan she has a 50% shot here imo and this is a great value play. I do respect Vieira though and will likely hedge a Vieira play as well. Vieira's competition thus far has been minimal which can be typical for women fighters.

What led me to pull the trigger was how easily Cat provoked Vieira in the weigh-ins. I hope that's a sign of things to come in the fight - she must use her age, experience and wisdom to beat the young up and comer. Plus Vieira although technically better in the SU starts to get a little wild in exchanges so hopefully she comes in emotional and drops her guard. Cat has more power in her shots.

And holy shit, just found out that Dern beat Gabi Garcia in a BJJ match. I know this is MMA but damn - I do not like Yoder's chances in this fight at all - I hope Dern has closed the gap in the SU enough to take this to the mat. From what I've seen Yoder has got some lovable, cuddly pillow punches.

[firekillex]

does anyone think that Kunitskaya has a snowball's chance in hell to beat Cyborg?

I'm thinking of putting a little on her

0% chance jake lol
basically like throwing money on browns to win superbowl

[JAKEPEAVY21]

0% chance jake lol
basically like throwing money on browns to win superbowl

Browns going to be real good in a year or 2, you heard it here first

the rest of the division is aging and they have a throng of high draft picks accumulated the next few years...

Cyborg is aging and has not been that impressive her last couple of fights

call me crazy but I don't think she has quite the same air of invincibility anymore

[Slevin07]

does anyone think that Kunitskaya has a snowball's chance in hell to beat Cyborg?

I'm thinking of putting a little on her

Maybe try a better option with high odds. Ortega round 3.

[Fence]

does anyone think that Kunitskaya has a snowball's chance in hell to beat Cyborg?

I'm thinking of putting a little on her

If you want to blow a unit or two for a great value play on the main event you may want to consider spreading that amount out over the course of each round to the tune of Cyborg winning, such as:

R2 +300
R3 +820
R4 +1300
R5 +1900
Dec +500

The amounts you place should look close to a reversed bell curve, although not exactly; IE - higher amounts on the R2 and Dec to hedge and smaller amounts on R3, R4, and R5 as these rounds would yield an extremely higher profit. This is way more likely to hit than Kunitskaya. Keep in mind you take out / edge out any round you like, it just depends on how you feel about the bout. Cyborg is much more patient than she ever has been but she is also way more confident and fighting someone who is not as well-seasoned as HH - which could yield a quick 1st round finish (-115).

Honestly, if I was her, I'd get someone in her camp to place a wager to end it in the later rounds b/c she's that damn good and could make a killing off her own fights. Hehe.

[Fence]

^

Also, Cyborg is only 32, has not taken any significant damage and takes training and skill building very seriously; if she wants to stay atop of all of WMMA for another 3-5 years, she can, and I anticipate this as the most likely of scenarios.

[firekillex]

i like cyborg rd 2-3 finish
thats the crazy thing with cyborg fights.... you can never take her straight so you gotta take the props lol
shes been WAY more patient lately in her fights so i dont think she wants a 1st round finish here... 2-3 sounds perfect and if you really wanna stretch it maybe round 4

[Fence]

i like cyborg rd 2-3 finish
thats the crazy thing with cyborg fights.... you can never take her straight so you gotta take the props lol
shes been WAY more patient lately in her fights so i dont think she wants a 1st round finish here... 2-3 sounds perfect and if you really wanna stretch it maybe round 4

It wouldn't shock me at all if she stayed patient for a round or two and waited for YK to make a mistake. But I just feel that YK is nowhere near as developed with respect to being a well-rounded mixed martial artist as HH is - that 4 year layoff stunted her trajectory. This could end in a few minutes or less without question. Especially if Cyborg throws her around and gets her down.

[JC2008]

Cyborg submission +664...? A friend mentioned it and I thought... hmmm.... A few strikes here and there and show some sub evolution?

[Fence]

Cyborg submission +664...? A friend mentioned it and I thought... hmmm.... A few strikes here and there and show some sub evolution?

She was training subs and TDs with BJ Penn at open workout plus that is YK's weakness (getting taken down and submitted) - surely crossed my mind as well. The problem is Cyborg so used to pounding heifers out with relative ease! Takes some balls to lay that one but would be a nice hit.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Munhoz Submission is back up to (+511) if anyone wants to get on it with me

[Broxbomber]

Cyborg submission +664...? A friend mentioned it and I thought... hmmm.... A few strikes here and there and show some sub evolution?

Bet365 has Cyborg at +10,000 for each round by submission. I put $20 on Round 1, $20 on Round 2 and $10 on Round 3.

$20 pays $2,000.

Hoping she hurts YK and jumps on a RNC.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Bet365 has Cyborg at +10,000 for each round by submission. I put $20 on Round 1, $20 on Round 2 and $10 on Round 3.

$20 pays $2,000.

Hoping she hurts YK and jumps on a RNC.

It could happen but it would be Cyborg's First Career Submission

[Hugo de Naranja]

Busy week at work so I didn't have time to get a good trivia question together. I'll be sure to do one next week.

[Fence]

It could happen but it would be Cyborg's First Career Submission

And if I remember correctly, Dodson has never been submitted either...

[Hugo de Naranja]

And if I remember correctly, Dodson has never been submitted either...

That's right. Dodson has never been finished at all...but he's never fought Pedro Munhoz

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya Picks:
Jordan Johnson Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Cody Stamann Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Zak Ottow Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
C.B. Dollaway Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Pedro Munhoz Round 1 Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Beneil Dariush Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Mackenzie Dern Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Kelten Vieira Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Stefan Struve Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Sean O’Malley Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Brian Ortega Round 3 Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Cris Cyborg Round 1 TKO (Punches)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya

Fight Pass Prelims:

Fight #1: Johnson vs. Milstead
Johnson -3.5 (-125) 1.25u to win 1u
Johnson+Milstead Goes Distance (+100) 1u
Johnson Round 2 (+575) .5u
Johnson Round 3 (950) .5u

Hedge:
Milstead Decision (+900) .5u

Fight #2: Stamann vs. Caraway
Stamann Decision (+129) 1.5u

Hedge:
Caraway Submission (+618) .5u

Fight #3: Ottow vs. Pyle
Ottow KO/TKO (+285) 1u
Ottow Decision (+350) 1u

Hedge:
Pyle KO/TKO (+705) .5u

Fox Sports 1 Prelims:

Fight #4: Dollaway vs. Lombard
Dollaway (+125) 1u
Dollaway Decision (+385) 1u
Dollaway KO/TKO (+385) .5u

Hedge:
Lombard Round 1 (+275) 1u

Fight #5: Munhoz vs. Dodson
Munhoz (+153) 3u
Munhoz Decision (+329) .5u
Munhoz ITD (+450) .5u
Munhoz Submission (+770) 2.5u

Hedge:
Dodson KO/TKO (+525) 1u

Fight #6: Dariush vs. Hernandez (DEBUT)
Dariush Submission (+260) 1.75u

Hedge:
Hernandez KO/TKO (+1210) .5u

Fight #7: Dern (DEBUT) vs. Yoder
Dern Decision (+310) 1u

Main Card:

Fight #8: Vieira vs. Zingano
Vieira -3.5 (+170) 1.5u

Hedge(s):
Zingano ITD (+440) 1u
Zingano Round 3 (+1525) .5u

Fight #9: Struve vs. Arlovski
Arlovski ITD (+354) .5u
Arlovski KO/TKO (+375) .5u
Arlovski Decision (+500) .5u

Fight #10: O’Malley vs. Soukhamthath
O’Malley ML (+130) 2u
O’Malley Decision (+210) 1u
O’Malley Round 1 (+800) .5u

Hedge:
Soukhamthath Decision (+507) .5u

Fight #11: Edgar vs. Ortega
Ortega ITD (+265) 2u
Ortega Submission (+415) 1u
Ortega KO/TKO (+1307) .5u
Ortega Round 3 (+1450) 1u
Edgar/Ortega Draw (+7500) .2u

Hedge(s):
Edgar Decision (-115) 2.3u to win 2u
Edgar -3.5 (+185) 1.5u
Edgar KO/TKO (+1408) .5u

Fight #12: Cyborg (C) vs. Kunitskaya (DEBUT)
Cyborg Unanimous Decision (+850) .5u

Hedge:
Kunitskaya Scorecards = No Action (+1305) 1u

Straight Parlays:
Johnson/Stamann+Caraway Goes Distance (+106) 2.5u

Prop Parlays:
Dern/Cyborg KO (-104) 2.5u to win 2.4u
O’Malley/Ortega/Cyborg+Kunitskaya WSR3 (+530) .5u
Dollaway/Munhoz/Dariush -3.5 (+554) .25u
Dern Submission/Viera Decision/Struve -3.5 (+588) .25u
Johnson -3.5/Stamann/Ottow Decision (+1144) .25u
Munhoz ITD/Dariush Submission (+1753) .25u
Dern ITD/Ortega Round 3 (+2198) .25u

Full Card Props:
Over 5.5 Fights Go Distance (+106) 1.25u
Over 6.5 Fights Go Distance (+288) .5u
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+777) .5u
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+2575) .25u

Multi-Event Parlays:
Dern/Iaquinta (+128) 2.5u

[Slevin07]

Just two plays for me from this morning. Got 1 unit on o'malley ml at even odds. And 2 units on Ortego ml at +150, with a small shot on round 3 (+1200).

Hugo where do you get the single type of finish props from, sub only etc. 5dimes? I think I gotta add a 3rd book.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Just two plays for me from this morning. Got 1 unit on o'malley ml at even odds. And 2 units on Ortego ml at +150, with a small shot on round 3 (+1200).

Hugo where do you get the single type of finish props from, sub only etc. 5dimes? I think I gotta add a 3rd book.

5Dimes. Hope you hit your bets. I'm on all three of them with ya.

[Slevin07]

5Dimes. Hope you hit your bets. I'm on all three of them with ya.

With the way you're going, I would've considered buying out if you weren't haha. If I get around to it, I'll watch some tape on Munhoz and Dodson.

[TPowell]

Played the draw line on Edgar/Ortega and Lombard/Dollaway as well. Trying to figure out how to add it to betmma now

[HurlSweatPants]

UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya Picks:
Jordan Johnson Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Cody Stamann Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Zak Ottow Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
C.B. Dollaway Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Pedro Munhoz Round 1 Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Beneil Dariush Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Mackenzie Dern Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Kelten Vieira Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Stefan Struve Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Sean O’Malley Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Brian Ortega Round 3 Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Cris Cyborg Round 1 TKO (Punches)

BOL my dude, didn't catch the Munhoz line before it went into the +130s so I am staying away, but I hope for the sake of most of the forum it hits.

[JIBBBY]

This is how I'm playing the card.. Good luck fellas!!!

My regular betting sizing.. $100 a pop on average..


1)Jordan Johnson - Straight (risking $235 to win $100)
2)Caraway - Straight and by Sub
3)Ottow ITD/ Hedged Pyle Sub
4)CB Straight/Hedged Hector RND 1 finish prop
5)Dodson by Decision
6)Daruish by Sub
7)Dern by Sub
8)Zingano Straight
9)Struve ITD
10)Sean O'malley Straight (large play $350 risking to win $300)
11)Frankie Edgar by Dec/ Hedged Ortega by Sub
12)Cyborg/Yana O1.5

[Pinoy-T-X]

Hopefully my dog bets will be barking tonight.

Ortega +135

O’Malley -105

Woof, woof....


Small parlay on
Dern
Daruish
Cyborg ITD.
BOL

[Shagdogy]

UFC 222 Bets:

Johnson/Milstead o2.5, -125, 1u
Caraway +129, .78u
Munhoz +139, 1u
Munhoz sub +500, .25u
Dern dec +320, .25u
Zingano rd 3 +1400, .25u
Arlovski/Struve o1.5 -130, 1u
O’Malley +112, 1.5u

Edgar/Johnson parlay +110, 1.5u
Johnson/Caraway parlay o2.5 +106, .75u
Dern/Zingano parlay +234, .43u

BOL everyone. Looks like a lot of us are playing the same. Hope we can cash a few.

[Richard Clock]

My bets so far, happy with the prices I got generally. Still doing a little more research, and considering some sort of wager on Dollaway/Lombard after research. Really like Dollaway here but haven't found the price or particular bet I really like. May just live bet if this gets past the 1st. All my bets will be posted in my events thread. GL everyone.

[Sanity Check]

Mackenzie Dern's frame looks so heavily composed of baby fat. Not certain if she has the athleticism to compete. Most women you can see they have a higher percentage of muscle on their frame complimented by an overall lower body fat percentage. Will be interesting to see if it makes a difference.

[Ralphie Halves]

I really like that O'Malley sub bet, Richard.

Not going to outsmart myself, I have just a few straight bets happening, and too lazy to go to 5D (on my phone) to look at the odds I got but...

Dodson
Struve
O'Malley
Lombard

Edgar/Ortega just too tough to call. Going to enjoy the shit out of that one. Then will probably head out before the Cyborg massacre.

[Ralphie Halves]

Dariush too, my bad

[Hugo de Naranja]

I'll be dipping out after the first few fights to go watch with some friends across town. Best of luck on all your bets tonight boys!