UFC Fight Night 123: Swanson vs. Ortega | Saturday 12.09.2017 (Fresno, CA)

[Hugo de Naranja]

All the value on this card is on dogs IMO: Sterling, Benitez, Soukhamthath, Braga Neto... Saenz maybe.

Out of all of those, Sterling is the only one I would actually put at even or better to win. Tough card. Over pay for favorites who you think are likely to win, but more expensive than they are worth? Or spread bets out among a bunch of underdogs who you think have some value in the line, but don't actually have winning their fights?

As you were saying earlier, not a great card for betting in general.

[Shagdogy]

As you were saying earlier, not a great card for betting in general.

I'm honestly considering sitting it out entirely. I like to have some action just for fun but this card is just not tickling my fancy.

[JollyRogerMMA]

Betting small on this card Tracked at betmma.tips/bdsm1010 .... Lets get it good luck to you all

[JIBBBY]

^^^Betting every fight on this card as I do with every event.. I do agree this card is tough to bet.. Hedging I will do...

[Hugo de Naranja]

Betting small on this card Tracked at betmma.tips/bdsm1010 .... Lets get it good luck to you all

How you got?

[turbozed]

All the value on this card is on dogs IMO: Sterling, Benitez, Soukhamthath, Braga Neto... Saenz maybe.

Out of all of those, Sterling is the only one I would actually put at even or better to win. Tough card. Over pay for favorites who you think are likely to win, but more expensive than they are worth? Or spread bets out among a bunch of underdogs who you think have some value in the line, but don't actually have winning their fights?

With my limits on props and openers getting cut to practically 0, I haven't been able to work up the motivation to cap this card fully. I agree with you that value is likely on the dogs here. Especially since most of the favorites are unreliable or less reliable and lower tier fighters. I'm probably going cap two more matchups and look for spots where someone is getting a bit much respect for being slightly more known than his opponent (Knight against Benitez, Giles over Neto, Ramos over Gruetz).

I did take Souk SNA at +240. That felt off to me. Souk hasn't been finished and Sanders has a hard time finishing guys who just sit there taking his punches (see Alcantara and Minner fights). Souk seems athletic enough where Sanders will have to pick his poison between holding him down and not scoring punches or trying to punch but having Souk slip out (or at least threaten to) and disengage.

[turbozed]

I took Morales/Lopez doesn't go Rd2 for +367.

Lopez is already pretty aggressive and in his UFC debut I think he's intending to come out of the gate swinging and looking for a finish. Bad blood between the two apparently as well. He says he wants to be exciting and, as a young guy in his debut, he can get away with not being conservative. Morales has a good amount of power and can finish if someone brings a fight to him.

If it goes past the 1st round, it'll likely go to decision. At -170, fight goes the distance prop doesn't look very appealing though.

[Sato]

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ZLMfFyLW_eA" frameborder="0" gesture="media" allow="encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>

[Shagdogy]

Hmmmm... now just looking to sprinkle around for fun. Maybe 1u Lopez and .5u Soukh and Benitez. Win any 1 to break even, win any 2 to make a small bit.

[Shagdogy]

Hmmmm... now just looking to sprinkle around for fun. Maybe 1u Lopez and .5u Soukh and Benitez. Win any 1 to break even, win any 2 to make a small bit.

LOL I suck at math.

[WolfTicketDealer]

Just rewatched this fight. Dodson had two TDs, both in R2. He had like three seconds of top control between the two. Both times Moraes used a Heel Hook attempt to get back to his feet.

Hmm, yeah, I may have misremembered a bit. I still think this fight is Sterling or pass, though.

[Shagdogy]

This is one of those cards where someone who blind bets every dog could very well make out like a bandit.

[thewitchinghour]

Ortega all day...

[JIBBBY]

This is one of those cards where someone who blind bets every dog could very well make out like a bandit.

Yup, there is a few undefeated dogs on this card... Those could hit..

This fight sports 2 undefeated fighters.. You really never know for sure how this could go? Just saying..

UFC Fight Night 123 - Middleweight 3 rounds - SaveMart Center - Fresno, California - FS1
Sat 12/9		1401 Markus Perez		+320	o2½ +135
10:30PM		1402 Eryk Anders		-390	u2½ -155

FS1 Main Card



Eryk
Anders
"Ya Boi"
vs
Markus
Perez
"Maluko"

UNITED STATES
Country
BRAZIL

9-0-0
Record
9-0-0

56%
KO/TKO
33%

11%
SUB
33%

22%
DEC
33%

0 in
Height
73 in

185 lbs
Weight
185 lbs

75 in
Reach
0 in

43 in
Leg Reach
0 in

[bjpenn85]

Horrible card for betting. We should all stick to betting Demonata money only.

[thewitchinghour]

Lol Perez is going to get the dog shit beat out of him... Anders is real deal man... I like the under 2.5 but it will be Perez who goes to sleep... promise you

[Hugo de Naranja]

I took Morales/Lopez doesn't go Rd2 for +367.

Lopez is already pretty aggressive and in his UFC debut I think he's intending to come out of the gate swinging and looking for a finish. Bad blood between the two apparently as well. He says he wants to be exciting and, as a young guy in his debut, he can get away with not being conservative. Morales has a good amount of power and can finish if someone brings a fight to him.

If it goes past the 1st round, it'll likely go to decision. At -170, fight goes the distance prop doesn't look very appealing though.

Totally agree. Tailing this one.

[JIBBBY]

Lol Perez is going to get the dog shit beat out of him... Anders is real deal man... I like the under 2.5 but it will be Perez who goes to sleep... promise you

I can't argue this. Still Perez is undefeated and has never gone to sleep before.. We'll see? Like I said it's a bit hard to just auto fade undefeated fighters at the UFC level... That goes for Brian Ortega too..

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hmm, yeah, I may have misremembered a bit. I still think this fight is Sterling or pass, though.

Do you think he gets TDs and top control or outstrikes Moraes? I just think Moraes will land the much better strikes on the feet for as long as it stays there. Could be a close fight since Sterling always fights close but I think Moraes should be more like (-190) here.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Lol Perez is going to get the dog shit beat out of him... Anders is real deal man... I like the under 2.5 but it will be Perez who goes to sleep... promise you

I like Anders too. Which of his fights have you watched?

[JIBBBY]

Totally agree. Tailing this one.

You guys talked me into it.. I'll try fight won't go the distance for small at +140..

Sat 12/9		1503 Morales / Lopez goes 3 round distance		-170
10:00PM		1504 Fight won’t go 3 round distance		+140

[UncleChael]

Aljamain Sterling... Easy.

[thewitchinghour]

I can't argue this. Still Perez is undefeated and has never gone to sleep before.. We'll see? Like I said it's a bit hard to just auto fade undefeated fighters at the UFC level... That goes for Brian Ortega too..

I feel you, there is definitely some value in taking the undefeated underdog going against a guy fighting his second UFC fight (also undefeated)... I just think we're going to see Anders at the highest level in due time, he is an animal athletically... gl i'll be off that fight but I love Ortega tonight... Vegas is getting the money down on Cub and Ortega is a KILLER...

[JIBBBY]

Aljamain Sterling... Easy.

I'm also leaning Sterling and by Decision myself.. I originally was gonna go with Marlon as I think he's fighting great right now but I just think he's not gonna win rounds on points against the Funk Master... Should be a good fight though... When in doubt always bet on black aslo. ..



Marlon
Moraes
"Magic"
vs
Aljamain
Sterling
"Funk Master"

BRAZIL
Country
UNITED STATES

19-5-1
Record
14-2-0

42%
KO/TKO
14%

26%
SUB
43%

32%
DEC
43%

66 in
Height
67 in

135 lbs
Weight
135 lbs

67 in
Reach
71 in

37 in
Leg Reach
39 in

[thewitchinghour]

I like Anders too. Which of his fights have you watched?

I've had my eyes on Anders since his 6th fight against Brian White in Bellator... so for four fights now... Saw him on Bellator, remembered him from playing at Alabama... then saw him win the LFA championship and make his debut... this is going to be a guy that gets better and better every performance... he is a sponge and an athletic freak...

[Hugo de Naranja]

I've had my eyes on Anders since his 6th fight against Brian White in Bellator... so for four fights now... Saw him on Bellator, remembered him from playing at Alabama... then saw him win the LFA championship and make his debut... this is going to be a guy that gets better and better every performance... he is a sponge and an athletic freak...

Any notes on his fight with Brendan Allen? I know it was a 5-rounder in LFA but haven't had the chance to see it yet.

[thewitchinghour]

I like Moraes, Ortega, and then Anders as parlay material, never comfortable laying 4-1 in a fight...

[thewitchinghour]

He won the title off the Brendan fight... Very one sided beat down... poised, comfortable, always out of range... not really even much there... UD justified... haven't seen it since it happened but I recall it being pretty definitive

[Hugo de Naranja]

I like Moraes, Ortega, and then Anders as parlay material, never comfortable laying 4-1 in a fight...

I think Anders -3.5 (-175) is much better than Anders ML (-400). The points spread bet wins on any finish and any wide decision (not a Split or a 29-28 x3). I think that if Anders wins, it will be in dominant fashion.

[Hugo de Naranja]

He won the title off the Brendan fight... Very one sided beat down... poised, comfortable, always out of range... not really even much there... UD justified... haven't seen it since it happened but I recall it being pretty definitive

Gastank looked ok in the later rounds?

[JIBBBY]

I think Anders -3.5 (-175) is much better than Anders ML (-400). The points spread bet wins on any finish and any wide decision (not a Split or a 29-28 x3). I think that if Anders wins, it will be in dominant fashion.

Eryk Anders rn1 finish prop is +185.. He has alot of first round finishes...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Eryk-Anders-93407

1421 Anders wins in round 1

+185

A more conservative option if you think Anders is gonna sleep Perez

1433 Anders wins by TKO/KO

-110

[thewitchinghour]

I think Anders -3.5 (-175) is much better than Anders ML (-400). The points spread bet wins on any finish and any wide decision (not a Split or a 29-28 x3). I think that if Anders wins, it will be in dominant fashion.

This is an awesome bet... I'm going to look into this too... didn't think of this and agree completely... either a finish or he should cruise...

Anders gas tank isn't going to be a problem ever imo... he gets actually better and more precise as the fights go on and he doesn't look winded, almost looks more settled down... I am huge on Anders man maybe somebody else can offer an alternate take... I just don't see many holes other than fundamental skills which you acquire* over time training martial arts... it's just a matter of improving his skills... kind of guy that you feel could have done MMA like he did football and might be a champ right now... very high on him

[Shagdogy]

Do you think he gets TDs and top control or outstrikes Moraes? I just think Moraes will land the much better strikes on the feet for as long as it stays there. Could be a close fight since Sterling always fights close but I think Moraes should be more like (-190) here.

I think Sterling could tip the cards in his favor with an all the way out, all the way in game plan. If he has success controlling the majority of clinch or TD attempts, then he may be able to stay enough at range in the striking to avoid taking too much damage from Moraes.

This is also late notice and a lot of recent action for Moraes. Slight value on Sterling here IMO.

[Shagdogy]

I think you guys are right about Anders but it's a question of finding the value on him. If I had to guess, I'd say he wins TKO/KO. I think he has some very real power.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think you guys are right about Anders but it's a question of finding the value on him. If I had to guess, I'd say he wins TKO/KO. I think he has some very real power.

Yeah I've got 1u on the R1 prop (+225). KO/TKO seems solid too like Jibs suggested at (-110).