UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch (September 16, 2017)

[JIBBBY]

Please lose fluke cockhold, I despise him. Was so happy when vitor kicked his head off

Not gonna happen.. Like DC said on the UFC Tonight show Luke is better in every area and faster.. Branch is slow of foot and with his striking and he's gonna get exposed standing or on the ground.. Luke will be chin shy, stay at distance and kick the shiit out of Branch, might shoot and then land up on top as well.. That will be the end of Branch..

Lucky punch is his only chance IMO..

[Demonata]

Not gonna happen.. Like DC said on the UFC Tonight show Luke is better in every area and faster.. Branch is slow of foot and with his striking and he's gonna get exposed standing or on the ground.. Luke will be chin shy, stay at distance and kick the shiit out of Branch, might shoot and then land up on top as well.. That will be the end of Branch..

Lucky punch is his only chance IMO..

So branch is such a bad fighter that his only chance is a lucky punch? Luke Rockhold is not a superstar. Branch can win this fight in lots of ways, even a decision. His only way to win is not only luck. Rockhold is no gsp or Anderson Silva or Demetrius Johnson or donor mcgregor. He's definitely beatable.

[JIBBBY]

So branch is such a bad fighter that his only chance is a lucky punch? Luke Rockhold is not a superstar. Branch can win this fight in lots of ways, even a decision. His only way to win is not only luck. Rockhold is no gsp or Anderson Silva or Demetrius Johnson or donor mcgregor. He's definitely beatable.

We'll see Dem? I think Luke wins ITD and probably by Sub..

[Shagdogy]

Finding no value in these lines. I seriously disrespect Spitz's "skills" and went max bet against him vs Godbeer, but... Hamilton sucks and at 37 got KO'd last time out. He also loves to run head first into punches which is about the only way Spitz could have any power. Hamilton should roll this bum but he can't seem to get out of his way and his chin could be completely gone.

Martin/Aubin-Mercier is a real good fight. I said after Martin's last fight that I wouldn't be betting against him anymore since he showed some striking skill. He better stay off the mat with OAM though, all he does is get the RNC. Good fight. No bet edge though.

Where's the value at?

[turbozed]

I think Martin will have a big advantage on the feet here. OAM likes to jump in and out of range with his chin up and he's very hittable. Martin should be a lot bigger and, though we haven't seen too much of his counterwrestling yet, I think it should be enough to counter sloppy shots if OAM doesn't mix takedowns well with his striking. This will be a southpaw vs orthodox matchup, so OAM should be spamming that left kick. He doesn't set these up at all so I expect Martin to be able to crowd OAM and jump in and counter with straights or sit back and counter with that nice left hook he caught Chase with that last fight.

Biggest question mark is cardio. Martin looked like he conserved energy better in his last fight and wasn't just looking to power through guys with his strength advantage like he's done before. OAM looks like he can go 4 or 5 rounds, so his best bet will be to make it sloppy. I think OAM believes his technique to be too pretty to do something like that.

There were times in Martin's last fight with CHase where it looked like the shot he landed would've floored someone with a lesser chin (massive overhand right and a huge knee). The Martin by KO prop is worth a look at +800 I think.

Edit: Just realized I kept referring to Johnny Case as Chase here.

[hwgfb]

Alves is out of the fight.....FIGHT OFF.....great SMH.....

Perry now fighting Reyes?? fight props in play now?

[Shagdogy]

I think Martin will have a big advantage on the feet here. OAM likes to jump in and out of range with his chin up and he's very hittable. Martin should be a lot bigger and, though we haven't seen too much of his counterwrestling yet, I think it should be enough to counter sloppy shots if OAM doesn't mix takedowns well with his striking. This will be a southpaw vs orthodox matchup, so OAM should be spamming that left kick. He doesn't set these up at all so I expect Martin to be able to crowd OAM and jump in and counter with straights or sit back and counter with that nice left hook he caught Chase with that last fight.

Biggest question mark is cardio. Martin looked like he conserved energy better in his last fight and wasn't just looking to power through guys with his strength advantage like he's done before. OAM looks like he can go 4 or 5 rounds, so his best bet will be to make it sloppy. I think OAM believes his technique to be too pretty to do something like that.

There were times in Martin's last fight with CHase where it looked like the shot he landed would've floored someone with a lesser chin (massive overhand right and a huge knee). The Martin by KO prop is worth a look at +800 I think.

Edit: Just realized I kept referring to Johnny Case as Chase here.

A few counter points: Martin will be taller but OAM is big too for this weight and probably a bit thicker.

Leg kicks... Martin does absolutely nothing to check them. He walks through them like a robot. So far he's been able to do that, and I think he'll be able to do it again since the stances are opposite, but it might catch up with him one day.

Martin's counter wrestling is a bit of a question mark. However in his last loss vs Leonardo Santos he was taken down pretty easily from the clinch with a real quick, sneaky outside trip (OAM is judo black belt and has these trips), and then he was passed and subbed by RNC by a tighter grappler (we all know what OAM can do with a RNC).

Martin by KO is unlikely to me but not impossible. OAM ate a huge punch from Dober at the beginning of round 2 that dropped him instantly from the force but he seemed clear headed the entire time and immediately locked up an air tight guard that led to his sub finish. I don't think Martin can one punch KO him and OAM is too good on the ground to get pounded out unless he is really really hurt.

I favor Martin here but by a real slim margin. I think it's an excellent matchup. Unless Martin moves to more of a dog I can't bet it.

[JIBBBY]

Mike Perry is fighting Alex Reyes as the fill in fighter.. Alex is tough from what I've seen and this is not gonna be a easy walk thru fight for Mike.. Still leaning Mike Perry by KO.. May hedge Reyes by sub though..

UFC Fight Night 116 - Welterweight 3 rounds - PPG Paints Arena - Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania - FS1
Sat 9/16		1101 Alex Reyes		+375	o1½ +135
11:59PM		1102 Mike Perry		-470	u1½ -155

[JIBBBY]

Weigh ins...

[turbozed]

Thanks for your thoughts Shag.

I agree the KO isn't too likely but I think better than 8-1. There are a few ways I see a KO happening. The first is that Martin times a left hook while OAM jumps in magnifying the power. OAM does have a tendency to jump in with his chin up and Martin's timing seems pretty on point recently. If I recall, Dober dropped him while OAM was standing still or moving back. The other less likely but possible scenarios is a well timed clinch knee (not in the 1st rd but maybe later) followed up by punches, or if Martin can take advantage of OAM's tendency to retreat backwards with his chin up. OAM can counter but it's pretty obvious when he just wants to retreat and he's no counter threat once he takes more than one step backwards. Martin stays pretty balanced so I think he'd only chase and take advantage of that if he's identified this as a weakness.

A few counter points: Martin will be taller but OAM is big too for this weight and probably a bit thicker.

Leg kicks... Martin does absolutely nothing to check them. He walks through them like a robot. So far he's been able to do that, and I think he'll be able to do it again since the stances are opposite, but it might catch up with him one day.

Martin's counter wrestling is a bit of a question mark. However in his last loss vs Leonardo Santos he was taken down pretty easily from the clinch with a real quick, sneaky outside trip (OAM is judo black belt and has these trips), and then he was passed and subbed by RNC by a tighter grappler (we all know what OAM can do with a RNC).

Martin by KO is unlikely to me but not impossible. OAM ate a huge punch from Dober at the beginning of round 2 that dropped him instantly from the force but he seemed clear headed the entire time and immediately locked up an air tight guard that led to his sub finish. I don't think Martin can one punch KO him and OAM is too good on the ground to get pounded out unless he is really really hurt.

I favor Martin here but by a real slim margin. I think it's an excellent matchup. Unless Martin moves to more of a dog I can't bet it.

[JIBBBY]

I'm liking all the dogs in this event.. I think there is value with every single dog.. I'm even starting to think Luke Rockhold might get clipped and dropped or beat.. He looked drained as hell at weigh ins. Odds are good on all the dogs and I'm going with them in this event.. Fock it!! Playing the props as usual also though but with the dogs..

This is gonna be interesting to see how this event plays out? ... GL everyone!!

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 116: Rockhold vs. Branch Picks:
Gilbert Burns Round 1 Submission (Armbar)
Krzysztof Jotko Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Anthony Hamilton Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Tony Martin Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Justin Ledet Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Kamaru Usman Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Gregor Gillespie Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Anthony Smith Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Mike Perry Round 1 KO (Punches)
Luke Rockhold Round 2 Submission (Guillotine Choke)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 116: Rockhold vs. Branch

Fight Pass Prelims:

Fight #1: Burns vs. Saggo
Burns ITD (+280) 1u

Fox Sports 1 Prelims:

Fight #2: Jotko vs. Hall
Jotko KO/TKO (+738) 1u

Fight #3: Hamilton vs. Spitz
No Bet

Fight #4: Martin vs. Aubin-Mercier
Martin (+123) 3u

Hedge:
Aubin-Mercier Submission (+460) 1u

Main Card:

Fight #5: Ledet vs. Anyanwu (DEBUT)
Ledet Submission (+325) 1u

Fight #6: Usman vs. Moraes
Moraes (+500) 1u
Moraes Submission (+1035) .5u

Fight #7: Gillespie vs. Gonzalez
Gillespie Submission (+780) .5u

Fight #8: Smith vs. Lombard
Smith Round 2 (+500) .5u
Smith Decision (+525) .25u
Smith Round 3 (+1025) .25u

Fight #9: Perry vs. Reyes (DEBUT)
No Bet

Fight #10: Rockhold vs. Branch
Rockhold Round 1 (+325) 1u
Rockhold Round 2 (+475) .5u

Hedge(s):
Branch ITD (+655) .25u
Branch KO/TKO (+850) .5u

Straight Parlays:
Jotko/Gillespie -3.5 (+113) 2u

Prop Parlays:
Gillespie ITD/Smith (+208) .5u
Martin Decision/Ledet -3.5/Usman Decision (+611) .5u
Burns ITD/Jotko Decision/Hamilton+Spitz GD (+1812) .25u
Reyes/Branch (+2394) .25u

Full Card Props:
Over 5.5 Fights Go Distance (+300) 1u
Perry+Reyes FOTN (+500) .25u
Over 6.5 Fights Go Distance (+921) .5u

[Shagdogy]

^ I like how you played Martin/OAM. Seems like a solid play. Gillespie sub is a tricky pick too. Gonzalez does not go to decisions and he gets real scrambly on the mat. Gillespie could lock something up. I'm seeing that prop worth much less now so good pick up.

[Shagdogy]

I'm on Hamilton and Smith so far... nothing big. Waiting on the props (if my book ever opens it) to possibly tail Hugo with the Martin/OAM sub play. Maybe a Gillespie/Ledet parlay. I think those two guys roll here.

Not a big fan of tonight from a betting standpoint.

[Hugo de Naranja]

^ I like how you played Martin/OAM. Seems like a solid play. Gillespie sub is a tricky pick too. Gonzalez does not go to decisions and he gets real scrambly on the mat. Gillespie could lock something up. I'm seeing that prop worth much less now so good pick up.

Thanks mate. Best of luck today.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I'm on Hamilton and Smith so far... nothing big. Waiting on the props (if my book ever opens it) to possibly tail Hugo with the Martin/OAM sub play. Maybe a Gillespie/Ledet parlay. I think those two guys roll here.

Not a big fan of tonight from a betting standpoint.

Was thinking about that same parlay myself

[Shagdogy]

Was thinking about that same parlay myself

Yeah kinda sucks when you're looking at a -190 parlay to find "value" on a card. So many huge favs here.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Yeah kinda sucks when you're looking at a -190 parlay to find "value" on a card. So many huge favs here.

What about parlaying the points spreads?

[Pr0ph3t]

Gillespie looks shook AF at 1:30 into that YouTube vid...

[JIBBBY]

Gilbert burns in the first fight by sub +425, then Uriah Hall straight at +175 in the next fight.. Let's see how this goes???



Jason
Saggo
vs
Gilbert
Burns
"Durinho"

CANADA
Country
BRASIL

12-3-0
Record
11-2-0

25%
KO/TKO
27%

67%
SUB
64%

8%
DEC
9%

71 in
Height
70 in

155 lbs
Weight
155 lbs

71 in
Reach
71 in

40 in
Leg Reach
39 in

[bjpenn85]

im also on that gillespie/ ledet train, + hedge on both inside

[JIBBBY]

Prime time Uriah Hall has to have a chance against white boy Jotko one would think.. Both veterans of the sport and I think the odds should be closer to even or a coin flip.. Jotko a 2-1 favorite by the odds makers.. Hall is a striking based fighter and so is Jotko so anything can give in this one if it stays standing.. Maybe even Jotko's chin..

UFC Fight Night 116 - Middleweight 3 rounds - PPG Paints Arena - Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania - FS1
Sat 9/16		1801 Uriah Hall		+180	o2½ -235
8:30PM		1802 Krzysztof Jotko		-220	u2½ +195

FS1



Krzysztof
Jotko
vs
Uriah
Hall
"Prime Time"

POLAND
Country
JAMAICA

19-2-0
Record
13-8-0

32%
KO/TKO
77%

5%
SUB
8%

58%
DEC
15%

73 in
Height
72 in

185 lbs
Weight
185 lbs

77 in
Reach
79 in

41 in
Leg Reach
43 in

[Sanity Check]

Mike Perry says he ‘almost didn’t make it’ after possibly ingesting metal in recent car accident

Mike Perry’s road to UFC Pittsburgh has been a harrowing one.

The hard-hitting welterweight, who faces late-replacement Alex Reyes in Saturday night’s co-main event, was involved in a nasty car accident on May 25th. According to Perry, he was stopped at a stoplight and waiting to turn when his vehicle was rear-ended hard by another driver. Perry said he suffered two herniated discs in the accident, as well as frequent headaches that lingered for several weeks.

But that wasn’t the worst of the damage.

“Something happened in the car accident and I possibly ingested a piece of metal,” Perry said Monday on The MMA Hour. “And I didn’t know about it for a couple of days. I was going to training and I had a friend of mine pressing me up against the fence, and he put his shoulder in my stomach and he pressed in, and he’s like 6’4” or 6’5”, so when he really leaned in, he’s got good leverage, and I didn’t think nothing of it — there was just this sharp pain in my stomach. And I just pulled guard and went to the ground, and I was like, ‘Wow, man, good job, dude, that was a lot of pressure, that took a lot of energy out of me.’”

Perry, 25, said later that same night he held a victory party at a club to celebrate his April 22 knockout win over Jake Ellenberger — a “Platinum Party,” as he called it — and things grew even more worrisome when he took a shot of alcohol and the pain he felt earlier that afternoon exploded all over again.“

I was dying on the inside,” Perry said. “I went to the doctor the next day, or the day after, and they ran some tests and stuff like that, and they were like, ‘Did you eat a coin? Did you eat something? Did you ingest a piece of metal or something?’ And I was vomiting blood for a couple of days, and I had to go get [a procedure done where] they stick a camera down your throat to see what’s going on. I beat up my insides with that piece of metal, it cut me up and stuff, and it just took awhile to really get back to eating food, and my weight was low because I just didn’t have an appetite because of all the pain that I went through. It was pretty severe. It’s wild that as healthy as I am and as I was, and all the exercise and all the clean eating, just like, that I almost didn’t make it. That’s how I felt.“

I really didn’t think I was going to make it, man. I was dying. Literally dying.”

Perry said the symptoms continued for weeks, sapping his energy and his appetite, causing him to wake up exhausted every morning after the accident, even before he’d go through his daily routine.“

Accidents are tricky, man,” Perry said. “Something like that, especially a tough guy like me, I’m feeling pain ... it was a mix of a piece of metal in my stomach and a herniated discs in my back causing nausea, and I couldn’t decipher the two until they told me about both. And then I started realizing the differences in my body between back and stomach where the pain was really coming from, and it was coming from both places.”

While the incident marked a scary time for Perry, the welterweight contender is better today. After dealing with waves of increasingly serious issues, Perry said doctors believe he eventually passed whatever foreign object that had found its way in his body.Still, even now, Perry has no clue what exactly it was.“I have no idea. It passed and I missed it,” Perry said. “We tried to look for it, but I wasn’t digging through sh*t, but we were hoping to hear something and we never did.“But I know I’m better now,” Perry added. “My appetite is normal, and I’m just grateful, man. I’m thankful.“I’m in the best shape of my shape, I’m stronger and better than I’ve ever been. I’m so fast, I’m so ready for this. I can’t wait for Saturday.”Months after the troubling experience, Perry can now look back on the strangeness of the situation and laugh. For a fighter nicknamed “Platinum” to deal with an issue like that on his way to fighting in Pittsburgh, aka “The Steel City” — the coincidences are almost too much.“I was thinking so highly of myself that I created a piece of platinum inside of my stomach and it hurt me,” Perry joked. “I hurt myself. Don’t tell that to the insurance companies.”

https://www.mmafighting.com/2017/9/16/16297360/mike-perry-says-he-almost-didnt-make-it-after-possibly-ingesting-metal-in-recent-car-accident

Don't know if this could be a factor.

Mike Perry says he almost died from accidentally eating metal during a car accident last may.

[Shagdogy]

What about parlaying the points spreads?

Good thought... I don't get the points spreads on my book. Very few options for me, BUT I get to deal in cash which I like.

[JIBBBY]

Took the U2.5 in this first fight also as I think Gilbert Burns either gets the sub or gets KO'd..


Here we go fellas!! GL!! IT'S TIIIIIIMEEE!

[Shagdogy]

Hamilton -200, 3u
Smith -150, 1.5u
Gillespie/Ledet -190, 1.9u

That's all for now. I'm a little more exposed on Hamilton than I would like but the prop options haven't shown up for me to hedge. They may not... we'll see. If I hedge it will likely be Spitz round 1.

[JIBBBY]

Wasn't the sub but ko.. Didn't see that.. Under hits though... All good

$100.00

$190.00

Win

9/16/17 7:30pm UFC Fighting 2001 Jason Saggo/Gilbert Burns Under 2½ +190*

$100.00

$425.00

Loss

9/16/17 7:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2031 Burns wins by submission +425* vs Any other result

[Hugo de Naranja]

Burns ITD hits!

[JIBBBY]

Next...

$100.00

$180.00

Pending

9/16/17 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1801 Uriah Hall +180* vs Krzysztof Jotko

[spurginobili]

Good job Jibby, Hugo

Didn't study for this card. Gonna take shots anyway, and bet live

Hall ITD

[Shagdogy]

Apparently my book won't offer any props on the undercard, so no hedge for my Hamilton bet and can't play the Martin straight/OAM sub play. Now just considering if I want to put a small straight play on Martin (now -115). Turbo and Hugo have helped convince me to favor him just a lil bit more.

[Unwritten Law]

Got Burns right. Didn't post been ice cold with UFC, but I'm on Jotko next!!! Let's get back on track!

[Shagdogy]

Jotko laid a turd his last time out but I always felt he looked sick or something. It was real uncharacteristic. I expect him to look better. He needs to.

[Shagdogy]

Hugo!! Damn what a roller coaster that first round was! You almost hit that payday! Uuuuuugh. I can see this slowing down considerably now.