UFC Fight Night: Struve vs. Volkov (September 02, 2017)

PaperTrail07 · 08-18-17, 03:27 PM

Rocky is underrated but -316.....BB decent TDD....

Hugo de Naranja · 08-18-17, 04:27 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

Rocky is underrated but -316.....BB decent TDD....

You think Edwards should be a bigger favorite here? I don't

UncleChael · 08-18-17, 05:42 PM

Struve's easy money.. You already know

Demonata · 08-18-17, 07:10 PM

Volkovvvvvv

Rich Benjamins · 08-18-17, 10:12 PM

Originally posted by UncleChael

Struve's easy money.. You already know

Actually I don't know. I think this fight is extremely hard to pick, and the odds reflect that same view. I'd like to hear a good argument either way.

THE_LOCKSMITH · 08-27-17, 03:19 PM

back to business

Demonata · 08-27-17, 06:31 PM

Back to real fighting! Stupid boxing fake fighting shit over

JIBBBY · 08-28-17, 01:39 PM

So this got next.. I'll get to capping it tomorrow.. Been busy with MLB and other sports especially since it's down time now between big events in MMA..

Liking Alexander Volkov in the main. I think he's the better striker..

Shagdogy · 08-30-17, 07:26 AM

Check out Racik. I like his line vs. Barroso.

UncleChael · 08-30-17, 10:37 AM

Steffonnnnnnn "the SKYSCRAPERRRR" STRUVVVEEEEE, I'm telling you boys.

Shagdogy · 08-30-17, 11:55 AM

Eyes on some short notice dogs here. Santiago fights a good style to really test Zabit. He hasn't been KO'd since 2010 and that's the only time in his career. Zabit does best work when he can set the range and then stalk but Santiago will try to pressure and smother him and will probably mix takedown attempts and clinch work with strikes on the break. He's too big of a dog IMO and there's value.

Also, Mads Burnell is interesting. He has very tight grappling from the bottom, but you have to look long and hard to find him on his back. His striking isn't especially dynamic but he throws high volume and pressures and uses the flurries to create opportunities for takedowns and he seems to get them in pretty much every fight. He could test Prazeres.

Hugo de Naranja · 08-30-17, 12:39 PM

Originally posted by UncleChael

Steffonnnnnnn "the SKYSCRAPERRRR" STRUVVVEEEEE, I'm telling you boys.

Why do you like him in this spot?

bjpenn85 · 08-30-17, 02:13 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Eyes on some short notice dogs here. Santiago fights a good style to really test Zabit. He hasn't been KO'd since 2010 and that's the only time in his career. Zabit does best work when he can set the range and then stalk but Santiago will try to pressure and smother him and will probably mix takedown attempts and clinch work with strikes on the break. He's too big of a dog IMO and there's value.

Also, Mads Burnell is interesting. He has very tight grappling from the bottom, but you have to look long and hard to find him on his back. His striking isn't especially dynamic but he throws high volume and pressures and uses the flurries to create opportunities for takedowns and he seems to get them in pretty much every fight. He could test Prazeres.

With losses over guys like nover, and frankie perez kind of tones down the promise. Whenever i see a guy having losses to mediocre fighters like that, you should write them of as dogs. There is something in their arsenal who isnt right. Athleticism? Speed? bad defence? A guy like magomedshapirov will probably expose those weaknesses who santiago made in those fighs.

JIBBBY · 08-30-17, 02:59 PM

MMA MANIA PART 1 -

205 lbs.: Francimar Barroso vs. Aleksandar Rakic

The bizarre UFC career of Francimar Barroso (19-5) continued in 2016 when, after C.B. Dollaway lost a fight with an elevator before UFC 203, he faced Darren Stewart and lost via headbutt in 94 seconds. The pair went on to fight again in Stewart’s native England, where Barroso handed “The Dentist” his first professional defeat.

“Bodao” will give up four inches of height to Aleksandar Rakic (8-1).
Austria’s Rakic lost by submission in his first professional mixed martial arts (MMA) fight, then went on to stop all eight of his subsequent foes. Though he missed all of 2016, he came back strong with a first-round knockout in March.
Seven of his eight stoppage wins have come by form of knockout.
Rakic passes the eye test ... at the very least. His Muay Thai looks sharp, he’s clearly got power, and he looks like he at least knows what he’s doing in the wrestling department. That said, Barroso can drag a boring fight out of anyone and thrives in the slog. It’s the kind of style that Rakic — who’s built on fast-twitch action — could easily struggle with. On the other hand, Barroso had issues with the sheer aggression of Nikita Krylov and his tendency to throw naked single strikes plays into Rakic’s counter-punching.
Eh, what the heck, let’s put our faith in the future — Rakic pounds him out early.
Prediction: Rakic via first-round technical knockout

145 lbs.: Mike Santiago vs. Zabit Magomedsheripov

Ten straight wins and a couple of regional titles lead Mike Santiago (21-9) to Dana White’s “Contender Series” where he squared off against once-beaten Mark Cherico. Santiago made the splash he was looking for with a brutal knockout, earning himself a contract and, thanks to a willingness to step up, a debut fight less than two weeks later.
He replaces the injured Nick Hein on five days’ notice.
Zabit Magomedsheripov (12-1) — a disciple of Mark Henry — has emerged as one of the top prospects in the game today. He enters the UFC cage with eight straight wins, seven of them stoppages, and the ACB Featherweight championship under his belt.
The 26-year-old has knocked out six and submitted four opponents to date.
Magomedsheripov is a legit blue-chip prospect. He’s towering for the Featherweight division at 6’2,” has slick, powerful striking, and has ironclad takedown defense. He’s poised to make a big impact at 145 pounds, and with the likes of Frankie Edgar and Edson Barboza in his gym, I only see him getting better.
Santiago’s the more battle-tested of the two and looked damn good against Cherico. A turnaround this quick against a fighter this good is just way too much, though. I see him struggling with Magomedsheripov’s length and power before ultimately overcommitting to a takedown and getting his neck crunched.
Prediction: Magomedsheripov via second-round submission

205 lbs.: Bojan Mihajlovic vs. Abdul-Kerim Edilov

After starting his MMA career winless (0-3), Serbia’s Bojan Mihajlovic (10-5) got his feet under him and rattled off 10 straight before running afoul of Francis Ngannou in his Octagon debut. He made the drop to 205 pounds for his next bout, which saw him knocked out in three by Joachim Christensen in Phoenix.
He has knocked out four opponents and submitted another two.
Abdul-Kerim Edilov (16-4) — the cousin of Chechen president Ramzan Kadyrov — put together 10 consecutive first-round finishes to earn a call up to the big show. A torn meniscus scrapped a planned debut against Francimar Barroso, after which a failed drug test kept the 25-year-old on the sidelines for all of 2016.
This will be his first fight in more than two years.
This is a showcase for Edilov. Even putting aside his connections, he’s an entertaining young prospect in an aging, top-heavy division. They’re not going to take any chances.
While Edilov’s striking is a work-in-progress and his clinch entries aren’t great, he has a lovely takedown arsenal and moves extremely well on the mat for a man his size. Mihajlovic — who attempts to make up for pretty much everything with sheer enthusiasm — is prime fodder for an impressive finish. Edilov ties up, takes him down, and submits him with little trouble.
Prediction: Edilov via first-round submission

155 lbs.: Thibault Gouti vs. Andrew Holbrook

Despite falling short in the elimination round of TUF 22, Thibault Gouti (11-3) got a shot in UFC after knocking out Anton Kuivanen in a sizable upset. He’s yet to repeat the feat, suffering three stoppage losses in three UFC fights.
Five of his nine stoppage wins have come by submission.
It’s been quite a UFC ride for Andrew Holbrook (12-2), who used nonstop submission attempts to eke past Ramsey Nijem in his debut. He defied +400 odds to defeat Jake Matthews in Melbourne, but the victory was sandwiched between knockout losses to Joaquim Silva and Gregor Gillespie that lasted a combined 55 seconds.
He owns nine wins by submission, all but one in the first round.
Holbrook has no chin whatsoever. He does, however, have a pretty darn good ground game and decent takedowns with which to enforce it. Gouti has some pop in his right hand, certainly enough to put Holbrook down for the count, but his grappling has consistently failed him during his UFC tenure.
Barring another sub-minute thumping, expect Holbrook to stay out of trouble long enough to wrap up Gouti and drag him into his world for an early finish.
Prediction: Holbrook via first-round submission

Shagdogy · 08-30-17, 03:03 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

With losses over guys like nover, and frankie perez kind of tones down the promise. Whenever i see a guy having losses to mediocre fighters like that, you should write them of as dogs. There is something in their arsenal who isnt right. Athleticism? Speed? bad defence? A guy like magomedshapirov will probably expose those weaknesses who santiago made in those fighs.

He's on an 11 fight streak with 10 stoppages and just ran through Cherico. Those losses you mention were a long time ago. I don't think he should be 3-1. Watched a lot of Zabit and while he looks good, pressure makes him look the most beatable. Guys gas out trying for takedowns though. Santiago mixes dirty strikes with his clinch pressure and smothers but also with damage. I believe it's a good matchup and one that deserves a closer line.

JIBBBY · 08-30-17, 06:22 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Check out Racik. I like his line vs. Barroso.

Agreed, waiting for the KO prop to come out..

Rich Benjamins · 08-30-17, 09:06 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Check out Racik. I like his line vs. Barroso.

Yea, I've got a small bet on Racik. Also Green/Khabilov over.

Shagdogy · 08-30-17, 10:36 PM

Average sized play on Racik and waiting on Burnell and Santiago to see if their prices get even better and will probably take small stabs at those guys. Both in tough spots but just think the odds don't reflect the skills in their fights.

Haven't looked too closely at the matchup yet but Till seems like someone that is a decent play at -200 vs Velickovic. Only one guy has top level talent in that fight, but Bojan did show some improvement in his last fight if I remember correctly. Need to go back and get another look but first instinct is Till has all likely paths to victory.

bjpenn85 · 08-30-17, 11:52 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Average sized play on Racik and waiting on Burnell and Santiago to see if their prices get even better and will probably take small stabs at those guys. Both in tough spots but just think the odds don't reflect the skills in their fights.

Haven't looked too closely at the matchup yet but Till seems like someone that is a decent play at -200 vs Velickovic. Only one guy has top level talent in that fight, but Bojan did show some improvement in his last fight if I remember correctly. Need to go back and get another look but first instinct is Till has all likely paths to victory.

Till only attacks from the left. Left kick, straight left. Over and over again. Value is with Bojan. Clear dog and pass sit. And i betted till in his last fight, just to be clear.

JIBBBY · 08-31-17, 12:57 AM

Originally posted by UncleChael

Struve's easy money.. You already know

Easy money you say? Not sure about that Unc..

Volkov isn't anything super special but I think he has just enough tools to beat Struve up standing.

Struve is a tall goof, he gets lit up by good strikers that can get inside his reach or match it.. Volkov is a tall fighter himself at 6'7.. I think he'll be able to reach that chin of Struve easier then most think.. The Russian is on a 4 fight win streak.. Has 18 ko's in his 28 wins.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Alexander-Volkov-40951

Alexander
Volkov
"Drago"
vs
Stefan
Struve
"Skyscraper"

RUSSIA
Country
THE NETHERLANDS

28-6-0
Record
32-8-0

64%
KO/TKO
25%

11%
SUB
53%

21%
DEC
22%

79 in
Height
84 in

250 lbs
Weight
265 lbs

80 in
Reach
84 in

47 in
Leg Reach
48 in

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thinking maybe Volkov by KO, hedged with Struve by sub myself... Struve does have a knack for locking in subs when the opportunity presents itself.. It's a 5 round fight and I don't think these big boys are gonna make it the distance..

1041 Volkov wins by TKO/KO

+180

1035 Struve wins by submission

+524

Hugo de Naranja · 08-31-17, 02:03 AM

Despite the KO's, I don't see Volkov as a big puncher since he's mostly knocked out bums on the Russian circuit. Maybe just take Volkov straight with Struve Sub as the hedge?

JIBBBY · 08-31-17, 11:06 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Despite the KO's, I don't see Volkov as a big puncher since he's mostly knocked out bums on the Russian circuit. Maybe just take Volkov straight with Struve Sub as the hedge?

I saw that but I just don't see Volkov winning any other way then by KO in a 5 round fight with Struve.. Winning by decision is a possibility but I'm not betting on it.. Don't think either have the grit or tank to make it the distance.. Volkov does have some power.. Struve has been dropped before..

Already locked and loaded.. No turning back now.. Hoping one of these stick..

$100.00

$524.20

Pending

9/2/17 4:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1035 Struve wins by submission +524* vs Any other result

Hedge

$140.90

$253.60

Pending

9/2/17 4:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1041 Volkov wins by TKO/KO +180* vs Any other result

PaperTrail07 · 08-31-17, 12:22 PM

no...saying -316 was a tad steep...

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

You think Edwards should be a bigger favorite here? I don't

Hugo de Naranja · 08-31-17, 03:33 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

no...saying -316 was a tad steep...

Got it. Misread that initially

UncleChael · 08-31-17, 05:33 PM

Jibbbers Struves going to fukk him up. Bad.

JIBBBY · 08-31-17, 05:58 PM

Invicta tonight, anyone really cap this crap? I'm thinking of playing the favorites blind in 2 teamers for small.. I didn't cap this at all.. Hoping someone has some input before I place.. Little help fellas? I don't know these chicks but might be around tonight watching..

Invicta FC 25 - Bantamweight 5 rounds - Tachi Palace - Lenmore, California - UFC Fight Pass
Thu 8/31	3001 Yana Kunitskaya	+120
11:59PM	3002 Raquel Pa'aluhi	-150
Invicta FC 25 - Strawweight 5 rounds - Tachi Palace - Lenmore, California - UFC Fight Pass
Thu 8/31	3101 Janaisa Morandin	+400
11:30PM	3102 Livia Renata Souza	-550
Invicta FC 25 - Bantamweight 3 rounds - Tachi Palace - Lenmore, California - UFC Fight Pass
Thu 8/31	3201 Katharina Lehner	+145
11:00PM	3202 Alexa Conners	-175
Invicta FC 25 - Strawweight 3 rounds - Tachi Palace - Lenmore, California - UFC Fight Pass
Thu 8/31	3301 Sharon Jacobson	-170
10:30PM	3302 Kali Robbins	+140

JIBBBY · 08-31-17, 06:00 PM

Originally posted by UncleChael

Jibbbers Struves going to fukk him up. Bad.

Maybe UNC, you were right about Grienkie and Zona earlier today.. GOOD CALL BY THE WAY!!!

Well if Skyscraper does clean the Russians clock then I hope he ends it with a submission and not a KO then..

..

Shagdogy · 08-31-17, 06:54 PM

I'm with Hugo. Never been impressed by Volkov's striking power despite his KO's. I think it's the competition.

Hugo de Naranja · 08-31-17, 10:49 PM

Originally posted by UncleChael

Jibbbers Struves going to fukk him up. Bad.

What leads you to this conclusion?

Hugo de Naranja · 08-31-17, 10:50 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Invicta tonight, anyone really cap this crap? I'm thinking of playing the favorites blind in 2 teamers for small.. I didn't cap this at all.. Hoping someone has some input before I place.. Little help fellas? I don't know these chicks but might be around tonight watching..

Invicta FC 25 - Bantamweight 5 rounds - Tachi Palace - Lenmore, California - UFC Fight Pass
Thu 8/31	3001 Yana Kunitskaya	+120
11:59PM	3002 Raquel Pa'aluhi	-150
Invicta FC 25 - Strawweight 5 rounds - Tachi Palace - Lenmore, California - UFC Fight Pass
Thu 8/31	3101 Janaisa Morandin	+400
11:30PM	3102 Livia Renata Souza	-550
Invicta FC 25 - Bantamweight 3 rounds - Tachi Palace - Lenmore, California - UFC Fight Pass
Thu 8/31	3201 Katharina Lehner	+145
11:00PM	3202 Alexa Conners	-175
Invicta FC 25 - Strawweight 3 rounds - Tachi Palace - Lenmore, California - UFC Fight Pass
Thu 8/31	3301 Sharon Jacobson	-170
10:30PM	3302 Kali Robbins	+140

Nothing worth betting on this one imo

GoBlue77 · 08-31-17, 11:32 PM

Originally posted by Demonata

Volkovvvvvv

confirmed Struve. thanks

Rich Benjamins · 09-01-17, 03:51 AM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Invicta tonight, anyone really cap this crap? I'm thinking of playing the favorites blind in 2 teamers for small.. I didn't cap this at all.. Hoping someone has some input before I place.. Little help fellas? I don't know these chicks but might be around tonight watching..

Invicta FC 25 - Bantamweight 5 rounds - Tachi Palace - Lenmore, California - UFC Fight Pass
Thu 8/31	3001 Yana Kunitskaya	+120
11:59PM	3002 Raquel Pa'aluhi	-150
Invicta FC 25 - Strawweight 5 rounds - Tachi Palace - Lenmore, California - UFC Fight Pass
Thu 8/31	3101 Janaisa Morandin	+400
11:30PM	3102 Livia Renata Souza	-550
Invicta FC 25 - Bantamweight 3 rounds - Tachi Palace - Lenmore, California - UFC Fight Pass
Thu 8/31	3201 Katharina Lehner	+145
11:00PM	3202 Alexa Conners	-175
Invicta FC 25 - Strawweight 3 rounds - Tachi Palace - Lenmore, California - UFC Fight Pass
Thu 8/31	3301 Sharon Jacobson	-170
10:30PM	3302 Kali Robbins	+140

Don't think you can bet favorites on Invicta or shows where cappers don't know the fighters well. These lines were way off.

Robbins got a lucky armbar, one dog that won.

Lehner completely dominated for 1st round TKO. She should've been a big favorite.

Morandin almost beat Souza, was definitely better in teh standup but Souza was so good at takedowns. She shouldn't have been that big of a dog.

Kunitskaya completely dominated Paaluhi for a 50-45 win across the board. Her move to Jackson-Wink was a good idea, something the cappers probably didn't take into account.

Sanity Check · 09-01-17, 05:17 AM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Been busy with MLB

Did you see Vegas Dave give a free pick for the red sox maybe a week ago?

His free pick was a dud, too.

turbozed · 09-01-17, 06:07 AM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

Till only attacks from the left. Left kick, straight left. Over and over again. Value is with Bojan. Clear dog and pass sit. And i betted till in his last fight, just to be clear.

Not sure how there's value in Bojan. Guy could very well be 0-4 in the UFC. MMAdecisions has him losing his first 3 fights by media scores, and he was on the way to a 30-27 loss until landing a good shot on Musoke in the final 25 seconds of the match. Bojan is very hittable and jumps in to the pocket to trade, and should get countered by Till easily. In a recent interview Till stated that he hasn't had to use all of his weapons against his previous opponents and that he'd employ more weapons including the right hook and switch kick against another southpaw.

Think there's still value in Till even at -190. Was looking at Till by decision at +170 but after watching more tape I think there's a chance that Till might get a finish here.