DWTNCS: Week 6

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • Shagdogy
    SBR MVP
    • 06-16-10
    • 3564

    #1
    DWTNCS: Week 6
    I don't know how to post the lines, but they're up early. I've capped all of these fights except Byrd/Wallace. Some fights are hard to build a good picture of because of lack of tape, but my early impression is this is a night where dogs have the value. What do you guys think??

    I'm loving these Tuesday nights. They're entertaining and they've been profitable. Good combo. Let's win some more.
  • turbozed
    SBR MVP
    • 10-15-08
    • 2435

    #2
    Just got back from Bali so haven't gotten a chance to look at this one at all. Will try to do some capping tonight. Anyone have any thoughts so far?
    Comment
    • Rich Benjamins
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 12-15-15
      • 831

      #3
      I still gotta watch some fights. I watched a lot of Wallace and Byrd fights. And I have to say, Wallace is like the white version of Byrd. The two have almost exactly the same fighting styles and abilities. They both go for leg kicks, both have mid-level boxing skills. Both have a strong grappling/ground game. Byrd is more explosive, so I think you gotta go with him as the favorite. But at -200, don't think you can bet on him. I'm not sure.
      Comment
      • Shagdogy
        SBR MVP
        • 06-16-10
        • 3564

        #4
        Grant Dawson looks like Joe Lauzon with a gas tank. His striking D is awful but he doesn't care and walks forward through anything. His pressure and pace are relentless. His top game is all about constant work, damage, and sub. At 23, I like this kid. Sloppy but not at all afraid. He will most definitely eat some shots from Diaz, but will Diaz stop him? Doubt it. Dawson's only loss is a TKO where he wasn't actually out. Bad ref stoppage. I think he takes he share of shots in a high paced fight until Diaz wilts and Dawson takes over. He's +155 and climbing and will def see a play from me.
        Comment
        • Rich Benjamins
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 12-15-15
          • 831

          #5
          I like Olson. +210 seems very high. I watched one of Karl Reed's fights, he seemed a little wobbly on the feet, not very fast. Olson has good takedown offense. He could get openings, push Reed into the cage and get takedowns.
          Comment
          • JIBBBY
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 12-10-09
            • 83686

            #6
            Tempted to play this, we'll see? I may try it again....

            Here you go Shag..

            Dana White's Contender Series 6 - Middleweight 3 rounds - UFC Training Centre - Las Vegas, Nevada - UFC Fight Pass
            Tue 8/15 1001 Randall Wallace +180 o1½ -125
            10:00PM 1002 Charles Byrd -220 u1½ +105
            Dana White's Contender Series 6 - Featherweight 3 rounds - UFC Training Centre - Las Vegas, Nevada - UFC Fight Pass
            Tue 8/15 1101 Grant Dawson +145 o1½ -130
            9:30PM 1102 Adrian Diaz -165 u1½ +110
            Dana White's Contender Series 6 - Light Heavyweight 3 rounds - UFC Training Centre - Las Vegas, Nevada - UFC Fight Pass
            Tue 8/15 1201 Karl Reed -250 o1½ -145
            9:00PM 1202 Cameron Olson +210 u1½ +125
            Dana White's Contender Series 6 - Flyweight 3 rounds - UFC Training Centre - Las Vegas, Nevada - UFC Fight Pass
            Tue 8/15 1301 Martin Day +158 o1½ -140
            8:30PM 1302 Jaime Alvarez -180 u1½ +120
            Dana White's Contender Series 6 - Strawweight 3 rounds - UFC Training Centre - Las Vegas, Nevada - UFC Fight Pass
            Tue 8/15 1401 Jamie Colleen -145 o1½ -180
            8:00PM 1402 Tiffany Masters +125 u1½ +158
            Comment
            • Shagdogy
              SBR MVP
              • 06-16-10
              • 3564

              #7
              Originally posted by Rich Benjamins
              I like Olson. +210 seems very high. I watched one of Karl Reed's fights, he seemed a little wobbly on the feet, not very fast. Olson has good takedown offense. He could get openings, push Reed into the cage and get takedowns.
              Ever seen Reed on his back? I haven't, and he has had top position via offensive wrestling in every fight I could find. Just cause he's got that Karate style doesn't mean he's an incomplete grappler. He actually looks very strong. I don't think Olson wants to shoot under Reed and get stuck under his spraw trying to work out. I like Reed.
              Comment
              • Rich Benjamins
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 12-15-15
                • 831

                #8
                Originally posted by Shagdogy
                Ever seen Reed on his back? I haven't, and he has had top position via offensive wrestling in every fight I could find. Just cause he's got that Karate style doesn't mean he's an incomplete grappler. He actually looks very strong. I don't think Olson wants to shoot under Reed and get stuck under his spraw trying to work out. I like Reed.
                I could only find one fight with Reed, and no he wasn't on his back but a good takedown artist like Olson could probably do it. But we'll see, Reed is -250 for a reason.
                Comment
                • Shagdogy
                  SBR MVP
                  • 06-16-10
                  • 3564

                  #9
                  Originally posted by turbozed
                  Just got back from Bali so haven't gotten a chance to look at this one at all. Will try to do some capping tonight. Anyone have any thoughts so far?
                  Tough life eh? I like Dawson and Day as dogs. Colleen, Reed, Byrd for favs. Hard to really cap the Colleen fight but Masters had a LOT of ground to make up from the old fights you can see of her so I'm gonna play small that she didn't cover all that ground. Colleen is solid if not a killer.

                  Reed and Byrd could find themselves in a parlay for me, maybe with an O/U. We'll see.
                  Comment
                  • Shagdogy
                    SBR MVP
                    • 06-16-10
                    • 3564

                    #10
                    Originally posted by Rich Benjamins
                    I could only find one fight with Reed, and no he wasn't on his back but a good takedown artist like Olson could probably do it. But we'll see, Reed is -250 for a reason.
                    I watched at least 3. Some amateur but they aren't that old. Olson is definitely a high pressure wrestler but if he's not successful with the takedown he's in trouble.
                    Comment
                    • Rich Benjamins
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 12-15-15
                      • 831

                      #11
                      Originally posted by turbozed
                      Just got back from Bali so haven't gotten a chance to look at this one at all. Will try to do some capping tonight. Anyone have any thoughts so far?
                      What do you think so far, Turbozed? Hey, nice Koscheck pic! haha
                      Comment
                      • PaperTrail07
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 08-29-08
                        • 20423

                        #12
                        On Colleen..... More speed More tested
                        Comment
                        • PaperTrail07
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 08-29-08
                          • 20423

                          #13
                          Also like the over OLSEN AND REED....Olsen can drag this over 1.5 you would think.....Grapple City
                          Comment
                          • Shagdogy
                            SBR MVP
                            • 06-16-10
                            • 3564

                            #14
                            Originally posted by PaperTrail07
                            Also like the over OLSEN AND REED....Olsen can drag this over 1.5 you would think.....Grapple City
                            Hard to disagree.
                            Comment
                            • Shagdogy
                              SBR MVP
                              • 06-16-10
                              • 3564

                              #15
                              Money coming in on Wallace and Dawson. Big moves on Dawson from +135 to -157 on my book. Glad I got in early there.

                              I wonder why the movement for Wallace? I admit I haven't capped that fight but I know I like what I've seen of Byrd.
                              Comment
                              • Rich Benjamins
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 12-15-15
                                • 831

                                #16
                                Wallace is pretty badass. Have you seen his fights? I swear he's like the white version of Byrd.

                                Originally posted by Shagdogy
                                Money coming in on Wallace and Dawson. Big moves on Dawson from +135 to -157 on my book. Glad I got in early there.

                                I wonder why the movement for Wallace? I admit I haven't capped that fight but I know I like what I've seen of Byrd.
                                Comment
                                • brooks85
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 01-05-09
                                  • 44709

                                  #17
                                  DWTNCS

                                  my first thought was this was connected to dancing with the stars somehow
                                  Comment
                                  • Shagdogy
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 06-16-10
                                    • 3564

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Rich Benjamins
                                    Wallace is pretty badass. Have you seen his fights? I swear he's like the white version of Byrd.
                                    Nope. Haven't capped this one. May not get to it. Isn't Wallace on pretty late notice?
                                    Comment
                                    • Rich Benjamins
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 12-15-15
                                      • 831

                                      #19
                                      Good call on Dawson. He could take this with his grappling and subs.

                                      Originally posted by Shagdogy
                                      Money coming in on Wallace and Dawson. Big moves on Dawson from +135 to -157 on my book. Glad I got in early there.

                                      I wonder why the movement for Wallace? I admit I haven't capped that fight but I know I like what I've seen of Byrd.
                                      Comment
                                      • Rich Benjamins
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 12-15-15
                                        • 831

                                        #20
                                        I can see that. Another interesting one is ov 1.5 at -185 for Colleen/Masters. They each have a lot of finishes, but i think they're each probably good enough to defend the other.

                                        Originally posted by PaperTrail07
                                        Also like the over OLSEN AND REED....Olsen can drag this over 1.5 you would think.....Grapple City
                                        Comment
                                        • Rich Benjamins
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 12-15-15
                                          • 831

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by Shagdogy
                                          Nope. Haven't capped this one. May not get to it. Isn't Wallace on pretty late notice?
                                          Late notice, but Wallace just had a fight earlier this month. They had another guy on short notice who just finished a fight 11 days earlier, he won convincingly and got a contract. So I expect Wallace to be in top shape.
                                          Comment
                                          • Shagdogy
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 06-16-10
                                            • 3564

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by Rich Benjamins
                                            Late notice, but Wallace just had a fight earlier this month. They had another guy on short notice who just finished a fight 11 days earlier, he won convincingly and got a contract. So I expect Wallace to be in top shape.
                                            I've come around to Wallace. I think this is more of a 50/50 fight or possibly even Wallace should be a slight favorite. Byrd is a bit more athletic and smoother on the feet than Wallace but he is prone to being outworked on the ground. Wallace keeps high pace and pressure and while his takedowns aren't great, he will pressure Byrd to the cage and likely win scrambles, and has a good shot at putting him on his back by catching a kick. Wallace also seems to get stronger as the fight gets deeper. I like Wallace a little bit here. My capping is very incomplete so I'm not sure if I'll play anything.
                                            Comment
                                            • Sanity Check
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 03-30-13
                                              • 10962

                                              #23
                                              Is Adrian Diaz related to the Diaz brothers?

                                              He's from stockton.
                                              Comment
                                              • dvb02
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 06-30-09
                                                • 2941

                                                #24
                                                anyone have a stream with faber and snoop dog?
                                                Comment
                                                • Shagdogy
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 06-16-10
                                                  • 3564

                                                  #25
                                                  Here we go:

                                                  Dawson +135, 1.5u
                                                  Day +145, .66u
                                                  Colleen -150, 1u
                                                  Parlay: Reed + Masters/Colleen o1.5, +102, 1.33u

                                                  That's it for now. Let's have another fun Tuesday!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Hugo de Naranja
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 04-14-16
                                                    • 14140

                                                    #26
                                                    Sitting this one out but best of luck to anyone with bets tonight!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • dvb02
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 06-30-09
                                                      • 2941

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by dvb02
                                                      anyone have a stream with faber and snoop dog?
                                                      never mind.....got it

                                                      I like your parlay Shag I am on it as well
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Rich Benjamins
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 12-15-15
                                                        • 831

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by Shagdogy
                                                        Here we go:

                                                        Dawson +135, 1.5u
                                                        Day +145, .66u
                                                        Colleen -150, 1u
                                                        Parlay: Reed + Masters/Colleen o1.5, +102, 1.33u

                                                        That's it for now. Let's have another fun Tuesday!
                                                        We got the over, Shag. Think that was a no brainer. You don't see an over 1.5 too often with chicks, that line was a mistake.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Rich Benjamins
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 12-15-15
                                                          • 831

                                                          #29
                                                          All the o/u are 1.5 rounds. I wonder why if that's a constant thing on this series.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Shagdogy
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 06-16-10
                                                            • 3564

                                                            #30
                                                            WOOOOOO!!! I was worried I was in break even mode on this fight and then Colleen pulls out ANOTHER late stoppage win. Boom.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • spurginobili
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 05-09-09
                                                              • 3065

                                                              #31
                                                              That was an impressive comeback...have Colleen in a parlay
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Shagdogy
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 06-16-10
                                                                • 3564

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by Rich Benjamins
                                                                All the o/u are 1.5 rounds. I wonder why if that's a constant thing on this series.
                                                                It has been a trend given the format which forces fighters to go out looking to impress. Last week had a lot of 2.5's but for the most part this series has been set at O/U 1.5 across the board.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Shagdogy
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 06-16-10
                                                                  • 3564

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Taking another stab on the Hawaiian underdog here. Didn't pay off last time in a close fight. Let's see if Day can get it done.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • spurginobili
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 05-09-09
                                                                    • 3065

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by Shagdogy
                                                                    Taking another stab on the Hawaiian underdog here. Didn't pay off last time in a close fight. Let's see if Day can get it done.
                                                                    Same here...let's go Day!
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Shagdogy
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 06-16-10
                                                                      • 3564

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Showed some fight at the end of the round but looks like Day was the wrong side in this one... This fight looks like a tornado on the feet, spinning spinning spinning... Alvarez is so obviously moving to his right to avoid the spinning kicks that these guys are constantly moving in a circle.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      SBR Contests
                                                                      Collapse
                                                                      Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                      Collapse
                                                                      Working...