saku's MMA World Victory Road 2009!

[saku lbn]

Hello SBR's!

Some of you might know me from other forums - saku aka saku Lbn aka Mal.

My stats:

2008 year:

profit: + 75 u

average odds: 2.94 (+194) !
average losing odds: 3.56 (+256) !
average winning odds: 2.25 (+125) !


In 2009 I'm about + 15 u now.


You can check my stats/archives at http://mma4life.pl


You can also track my picks at my newest project - www.TheGame4Life.com


My first pick for DREAM 9 in progres!


cheers

[brooks85]

tonight is going to be great i love open-weight tournys. I look forward to the mousasi/hunt fight. and watching canseco get tossd on his head.

[saku lbn]

#1

Strikeforce 2009-6-19
CONOR HEUN vs JORGE GURGEL

Pick: JORGE GURGEL
stake: 6
odds: -120

Preety big skills and experience difference in my opinion. GL

[brooks85]

ya good call. I was liking heun because i thought he would be +200 or something but gurgel around -120 is a steal just based on the experience factor. He's got to be motivated after leaving the ufc on two tough decision loses, he has done some new training and he GURANTEED a win vs heun.

[illmatick]

I'm on Heun +105, Grugel has been a joke since he was on tuf, Heun good enough on the ground to keep Grugel off him

[Riot]

I'm on Heun +105, Grugel has been a joke since he was on tuf, Heun good enough on the ground to keep Grugel off him

A joke ? Man, i try not to be biased , but this forum seems to hate the whole Gurgel faction. You guys were all against Matt Brown vs Pete Sell , Brown killed him, Most of you were on Silva over Franklin, Franklin won, and now Gurgel is a joke ? Nah, its not like he got killed on the ground ... well he did in one, but hes loses were a result of him trying to go out and slug. He was trying to make a name as a complete fighter, he ended up losing cause of it. He held is own on his feet, just not enough to win. JG has alot of pride, he will come out here and win by any means neccesary, even a quick dull first round armbar. Hes better then you guys think , i even thru down on him tonight, even tho i said i wouldnt.

[illmatick]

most people were on Franklin riot, I didnt even bet the fight even though I liked wandy to win, I had mat brown in the sell fight, Gurgel hits like a 4 year old girl,Makes him a joke in my eyes, couldnt cut it in the ufc, has proved to be a b level fighter with good jujitsu, guys in the ufc just walked right through his punches, dana cut him because he knows the guy brings zero excitement, very boring fighter to watch, wouldnt be suprised if he win though,Heun is only a small play for me

[illmatick]

have to grugel props, looked like a whole new fighter

[Riot]

i told yo... nah . <Hugs illmatick> Thats the problem with Gurgel, he listens to people to much. They guy has deadly BJJ , he never uses it. He goes out to put on a show and stands up and brawls cause he wants to be exciting. Remember his fight with Mark Hominick ? non stop strikes, same with arron riley, but they are veteran strikers and he cant compete with that. Anyways, im glad he won, but im pissed cause i was assured he was going to showcase his BJJ tonight, oh well, i ended up betting on him, so ill go to bad happy

[saku lbn]

#1
Pick: JORGE GURGEL
stake: 6
odds: -120

pick won

[saku lbn]

Tomasz Drwal +116
Mike Ciesnolevicz -128

Pick: Tomasz Drwal +116

stake: 7/10

Tomasz have the edge in standup and better cardio. Ciesnolelevicz could be dangerous on the ground but Tom have good takedown defence and overall good submission defence. Important thing is also that Tom looked great at the weigh-inns(much better than last time) and had no troubles in making weight. My prediction is Tomasz by TKO 1 r

Good Luck

[saku lbn]

Tomasz Drwal +116
Mike Ciesnolevicz -128

Pick: Tomasz Drwal +116

stake: 7/10

Pick won

[Bread]

Gurgel is one of the very few fights I've won the past two weeks

Very exciting fight too.

[saku lbn]

UFC 100

#1
Dan Henderson vs Michael Bisping
Pick: Dan Henderson
odds: -200
stake: 10/10
10 units to win 5

#2
Dolloway CB vs Lawlor T
Pick: Dolloway CB
odds: -175
stake: 10/10
10 units to win 5.7

book: skybet


I'm very confident of those picks. There is a lot of value in. Comparing withother favourites: GSP is -320 and he's fighting Alves. Next is Bonar - 365 fighting with Coleman... And those are no bets for me.(maybe I will bet Coleman just before the event)

[saku lbn]

UFC 100

#1
Dan Henderson vs Michael Bisping
Pick: Dan Henderson
odds: -200
stake: 10/10
10 units to win 5

#2
Dolloway CB vs Lawlor T
Pick: Dolloway CB
odds: -175
stake: 10/10
10 units to win 5.7

- 5 u

[saku lbn]

#1
Paulo Filho vs Melvin Manhoef
Pick: Paulo Filho
odds: -135
3 units to win 2.2
If Paulo take him down he will submit him quickly. Best weapon for Melvin is strong wrestler/submission guy. But risking only 3 units because Melvin is in my opinion most dangerous striker in mma right now. Paulo had mental problems (painkillers/depression) but now everything seems to be ok. There are no roid tests here in Japan. He looks way much better at the training pics than the last time when he fought Sonnen. First round lasts 10 minutes in Dream and thats a favour for grapplers.
#2
Andre Amade vs Katsunori Kikuno
Pick: Andre Amade
odds: +145
4 units to win 5.8
Katsunori has nice record but he havent fought never outside small Japan island. Well rounded but with no specialisation in any martial art. Amade is a solid K1 level striker. Good matchup for him because Kikuno likes to trade punches. Amade has train before this fight at A. Ribeiro academy. Also taken lightly because it's Japan.
Bets taken at bodog yesterday

[saku lbn]

UFC 101 - August 8
#1



Shane Nelson vs Aron Riley
Pick: Aron Riley
odds: -155
stake: 7/10
bet 7 to win 4.5


It's an unfinished business for me and for Aron Riley. I was betting on Aron when they fought at UFC 96 and I lost because refree has stopped the fight from no reason. This won't happen again.
Nothing much to say. Aron is a better fighter from those two. If nothing unexpected happen he should win via TKO or decision.


UFC 101 weigh-in vid

WEC 42- August 9

#2


Ricardo Lamas vs Danny Castillo
Pick: Ricardo Lamas
odds: -190
stake: 8/10
8 to win 4.2


Both fighters are wellrounded but in my opinion Ricardo have the edge in every aspect of the game - better boxing, wrestling, submissions and cardio.
Not so long time ago Danny was easly submited by Cerrone who start train submissions about 3 years ago. Danny is 7 - 1 - 0 (Win - Loss - Draw) - five of his wins are on fighters with 16 - 38 combined record. His last win with Cardella was after very unfair judging. Those who follow my picks should remember that I was betting against Danny that time. So it's also small unfinished business for me.
Expect Ricardo to win via submission or take unanimous decision.

#3
Ed Ratcliff vs Phill Cardella
Pick: Phill Cardella
odds: +285
stake: 4/10
4 to win 11.4


I didn't expected Ed to be such a favourite. I know that he is a prospect and people like to watch his fight... but hey, he's fighting very experienced bjj black belt. Those who bet on him at -350 may be dissapointed.
Picks taken at:5 dimes and bodog

[brooks85]

good picks, i really like riley to make up for that debacle last fight.

[The HOFF]

Aaron Riley for me too. Hope I make back what I lost on him the first time as well.

[Bread]

Oh oh. Shane Nelson for me. LET'S FIGHT!

[saku lbn]

Shane Nelson vs Aron Riley
Pick: Aron Riley
odds: -155
stake: 7/10
bet 7 to win 4.5

Ricardo Lamas vs Danny Castillo
Pick: Ricardo Lamas
odds: -190
stake: 8/10
8 to win 4.2

Ed Ratcliff vs Phill Cardella
Pick: Phill Cardella
odds: +285
stake: 4/10
4 to win 11.4

Disapointment. Especially with Lamas fight

[Bread]

Lamas got KTFO.

[saku lbn]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/sports-promotions-links/221979-mma-guru.html#post2187881

Thank you for all comments in this thread.