UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson (March 18, 2017)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

UFC Fight Pass 5:00 pm ET
Jimi Manuwa vs Corey Anderson
Alan Jouban vs Gunnar Nelson
Henry Briones vs Brad Pickett
Arnold Allen vs Makwan Amirkhani

UFC Fight Pass 1:30 pm ET
Joseph Duffy vs Reza Madadi
Francimar Barroso vs Darren Stewart
Timothy Johnson vs Daniel Omielanczuk
Marc Diakiese vs Teemu Packalen
Oluwale Bamgbose vs Tom Breese
Leon Edwards vs Vicente Luque
Ian Entwistle vs Brett Johns
Scott Askham vs Brad Scott
Linda Lansberg vs Veronica Macedo

[Hugo de Naranja]

I love Joe Duffy but I highly recommend that no one lays (-700) on his ML price.

[Pinoy-T-X]

I love Joe Duffy but I highly recommend that no one lays (-700) on his ML price.

IKR

[JIBBBY]

So this got next where do we start with this card?... Hmmmm? Couple fights I can comment on now.. No need to even cap these 2...

Gunnar Nelson by sub if he can take down Alan Jouban.. Not a given though as Jouban is not that easy to take down and keep down...

Cory Anderson by Decision if he doesn't get knocked out standing by Manuwa first.. Cory Anderson has the wrestling advantage clearly over Manuwa.. Take downs for Cory should be there.

[Hugo de Naranja]

So this got next where do we start with this card?... Hmmmm? Couple fights I can comment on now.. No need to even cap these 2...

Gunnar Nelson by sub if he can take down Alan Jouban.. Not a given though as Jouban is not that easy to take down and keep down...

Cory Anderson by Decision if he doesn't get knocked out standing by Manuwa first.. Cory Anderson has the wrestling advantage clearly over Manuwa.. Take downs for Cory should be there.

Agreed on both. May be a good spot to live-bet Corey, assuming they have live betting for FP cards.

[JIBBBY]

Agreed on both. May be a good spot to live-bet Corey, assuming they have live betting for FP cards.

Yep this is fight pass card from top to bottom.. Not sure if live betting will be up on the board.. I assume it probably will be for the Main card fights.

[MMANick]

Odds are out, dudes.

[PaperTrail07]

Like Rocky Edwards as a Dog @ home...and DO...

[JIBBBY]

Brad Pickett and Timothy Johnson might be fade material just off initial match up thoughts... I was never a big fan of either of these fighters.. Brad Pickett is a tough guy and Timothy Johnson has power in his strikes.. Other then that they both kinda suck..

Anybody disagree with this?

[rsynweap84]

Lina Lansberg vs Lucie Pudilova fought in Nov. 28/2015

Here's the link on youtube: Lina Lansberg vs Lucie Pudilova

Seems like Lina was just way too strong for Lucie. Lina engaged in the clinch at least 13 times during the fight, and 13 times she basically shoved Lucie up against the cage and just grinded away with knees, and occasionally an elbow.

Lucie did appear to try and hip-toss Lina twice in round 2, and once in round 3, all pretty much unsuccessful given Lina's size and strength.

I think they're striking may have been close to being on par with between them, but Lina never gave her the chance to find out. Cyborg may have made Lina look much less impressive in her UFC debut, but against Cyborg, that's not saying much, and the fact she went to round 2 with her is impressive enough. Lina looks pretty big for a bantam gal, and the effect of being squished against the cage was definitely showing up on Lucie, not to mention the knees to the body that got through in the clinch as well.

I'm gonna lean on a Lina Decision, and throw mebbe a lil' sumthin' on TKO since it could happen.

[Shagdogy]

So this got next where do we start with this card?... Hmmmm? Couple fights I can comment on now.. No need to even cap these 2...

Gunnar Nelson by sub if he can take down Alan Jouban.. Not a given though as Jouban is not that easy to take down and keep down...

Cory Anderson by Decision if he doesn't get knocked out standing by Manuwa first.. Cory Anderson has the wrestling advantage clearly over Manuwa.. Take downs for Cory should be there.

I have to go watch it again, but I remember being very impressed with Manuwa vs. OSP. There has been a tide shift as of late in favor of the strikers who can use their wrestling to keep the fight on the feet. I'm not sure if I think that's how this Manuwa fight will go but if I remember banking that thought in my head when watching the OSP fight that if Manuwa gets comfortable and believes he can let go on the feet he is a dangerous man.

[JIBBBY]

Lina Lansberg vs Lucie Pudilova fought in Nov. 28/2015

Here's the link on youtube: Lina Lansberg vs Lucie Pudilova

Seems like Lina was just way too strong for Lucie. Lina engaged in the clinch at least 13 times during the fight, and 13 times she basically shoved Lucie up against the cage and just grinded away with knees, and occasionally an elbow.

Lucie did appear to try and hip-toss Lina twice in round 2, and once in round 3, all pretty much unsuccessful given Lina's size and strength.

I think they're striking may have been close to being on par with between them, but Lina never gave her the chance to find out. Cyborg may have made Lina look much less impressive in her UFC debut, but against Cyborg, that's not saying much, and the fact she went to round 2 with her is impressive enough. Lina looks pretty big for a bantam gal, and the effect of being squished against the cage was definitely showing up on Lucie, not to mention the knees to the body that got through in the clinch as well.

I'm gonna lean on a Lina Decision, and throw mebbe a lil' sumthin' on TKO since it could happen.

Fighters can evolve over 2 years and it's sometimes hard to beat the same fighter twice.. The loser adjusts from the first match up and kinda knows what to expect.. I haven't capped this fight yet but those are a few things you may wanna take into consideration..

[JIBBBY]

I have to go watch it again, but I remember being very impressed with Manuwa vs. OSP. There has been a tide shift as of late in favor of the strikers who can use their wrestling to keep the fight on the feet. I'm not sure if I think that's how this Manuwa fight will go but if I remember banking that thought in my head when watching the OSP fight that if Manuwa gets comfortable and believes he can let go on the feet he is a dangerous man.

Yep that's why I was hinting at Manuwa by KO if Cory Anderson can't get the take downs.. Cory Anderson I don't think can win this fight standing.. Cory has a pretty good MMA wrestling base though..

Manuwa has 14 ko's in his 16 wins.. So the KO prop is looking good when that comes out.. Not out yet for some reason.. ITD is out but not the KO prop.. I imagine the odds won't be that far off between both props.

1009

Manuwa wins inside distance

-112

Cory is a decision fighter when he can mix in his wrestling.. 5 rounds is a long time to go to decision though.. Neither fighter has ever fought past 3 rounds either.. A little nervous taking this decision prop as a hedge.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Corey-Anderson-171723

1007 Anderson wins by 5 round decision

+345

[rsynweap84]

Full Manuwa/Anderson props are out on 5Dimes

Wait a minute...

Corey Anderson vs Jimi Manuwa - Light Heavyweight 5 rounds - UFC Fight Night 107
Sat 3/18		1003 Anderson / Manuwa goes 5 round distance		+215
6:30PM		1004 Fight won’t go 5 round distance		-275
Sat 3/18		1005 Anderson wins inside distance		+315
6:30PM		1006 Not Anderson inside distance		-410
Sat 3/18		1007 Anderson wins by 5 round decision		+345
6:30PM		1008 Not Anderson by 5 round decision		-470
Sat 3/18		1009 Manuwa wins inside distance		-112
6:30PM		1010 Not Manuwa inside distance		-118
Sat 3/18		1011 Manuwa wins by 5 round decision		+761
6:30PM		1012 Not Manuwa by 5 round decision		-1391
Sat 3/18		1013 Anderson / Manuwa draw		+7000
6:30PM		1014 Fight not a draw		-18500
Sat 3/18		1015 Anderson wins in round 1		+775
6:30PM		1016 Any other result		-1625
Sat 3/18		1017 Anderson wins in round 2		+975
6:30PM		1018 Any other result		-1975
Sat 3/18		1019 Anderson wins in round 3		+1400
6:30PM		1020 Any other result		-3600
Sat 3/18		1021 Anderson wins in round 4		+2100
6:30PM		1022 Any other result		-6300
Sat 3/18		1023 Anderson wins in round 5		+3100
6:30PM		1024 Any other result		-11300
Sat 3/18		1025 Manuwa wins in round 1		+300
6:30PM		1026 Any other result		-420
Sat 3/18		1027 Manuwa wins in round 2		+400
6:30PM		1028 Any other result		-600
Sat 3/18		1029 Manuwa wins in round 3		+1000
6:30PM		1030 Any other result		-2000
Sat 3/18		1031 Manuwa wins in round 4		+1800
6:30PM		1032 Any other result		-5400
Sat 3/18		1033 Manuwa wins in round 5		+2800
6:30PM		1034 Any other result		-9600
Sat 3/18		1035 Anderson wins by submission		+690
6:30PM		1036 Any other result		-1470
Sat 3/18		1037 Anderson wins by TKO/KO		+480
6:30PM		1038 Any other result		-840
Sat 3/18		1039 Manuwa wins by submission		+1045
6:30PM		1040 Any other result		-2135
Sat 3/18		1043 Anderson wins by 5 round unanimous dec		+110
6:30PM		1044 Any other result		-150
Sat 3/18		1045 Anderson wins by 5 round split/maj dec		+1810
6:30PM		1046 Any other result		-5430
Sat 3/18		1047 Manuwa wins by 5 rnd unanimous decision		+1060
11:00PM		1048 Any other result		-2180
Sat 3/18		1049 Manuwa wins by 5 rnd split/majority dec		+1810
11:00PM		1050 Any other result		-5430
Sat 3/18		1051 Anderson / Manuwa starts round 5		+179
11:00PM		1052 Fight won’t start round 5		-237
Sat 3/18		1053 Anderson / Manuwa starts round 4		+152
11:00PM		1054 Fight won’t start round 4		-182
Sat 3/18		1055 Anderson / Manuwa starts round 3		-105
11:00PM		1056 Fight won’t start round 3		-125
Sat 3/18		1057 Anderson / Manuwa starts round 2		-270
11:00PM		1058 Fight won’t start round 2		+210
if fight goes to scorecards all wagers are no action
Sat 3/18		1059 Anderson (scorecards = no action)		+198
11:00PM		1060 Manuwa (scorecards = no action)		-258

Manuwa by KO? dafuk!?!

[firekillex]

very hard tough fight to cap, will need to do some more research this week
liking Manuwa and Gunnar though

[MMANick]

Like Rocky Edwards as a Dog @ home...and DO...

I can't bet against Luque right now. He's improved every outing and his game is crazy well-rounded now.

[MMANick]

Brad Pickett and Timothy Johnson might be fade material just off initial match up thoughts... I was never a big fan of either of these fighters.. Brad Pickett is a tough guy and Timothy Johnson has power in his strikes.. Other then that they both kinda suck..

Anybody disagree with this?

I'm not very impressed with either of these guys either. I think Vera has a shot at an upset here, I lean Pickett, but very slightly.

And I'll bet heavy on Johnson in his fight, strictly based on being so unimpressed with his opponent. Johnson will probably win a decision or get a late TKO.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Manuwa KO/TKO is up at (+110)

[rsynweap84]

Fighters can evolve over 2 years and it's sometimes hard to beat the same fighter twice.. The loser adjusts from the first match up and kinda knows what to expect.. I haven't capped this fight yet but those are a few things you may wanna take into consideration..

That could be true be she is coming on a bit of a short notice too, her original opponent was canned.

She has submitted her last two though, but she has to get her down, gonna need sumthin a bit different this time. Personally I think she should try a double or single, but Lina still a big girl so she will definitely need to stay off the fence.

[Sanity Check]

Odds looking much better today than they did yesterday.

[PaperTrail07]

Agree NICK but Rocky in England is no easy fight....

[MMANick]

Agree NICK but Rocky in England is no easy fight....

Definitely not, I just see Luque as a future contender. He'll stand with Rocky and do well enough there, then surprise w/ Takedowns. This isn't a play against Rocky as much as its a play on Luque who I think is a Blue Chipper.

[PaperTrail07]

Ok......tough test....so if he cruises he....you were on POINT>..

Definitely not, I just see Luque as a future contender. He'll stand with Rocky and do well enough there, then surprise w/ Takedowns. This isn't a play against Rocky as much as its a play on Luque who I think is a Blue Chipper.

[JIBBBY]

Betting and capping UK fighters that are fighting in London, this isn't getting any easier to cap then the last Brazilian card..

[JIBBBY]

MMAmania prelims -





185 lbs.: Tom Breese vs. Oluwale Bamgbose

Despite making his name as a grappling specialist, Tom Breese (10-1) announced his UFC arrival by demolishing Luiz Dutra Jr. and Cathal Pendred in a round apiece. “The Octopus” then took a decision over Japanese veteran Keita Nakamura before dropping a split to Sean Strickland at UFC 199.
At 6’3,” he stands four inches taller than Oluwale Bamgbose (6-2).
The waters proved a little too deep for Bamgbose in his late-notice Octagon debut, which saw him fall to Uriah Hall’s ground-and-pound halfway through the first. He roared back with a 60-second drubbing of Daniel Sarafian, but couldn’t capitalize on an early knockdown against Cezar Ferreira and wound up losing a decision.
All six of his wins have come by first-round knockout.
Bamgbose’s last fight showed us what happens when he can’t get the early finish: Nothing good. “Holy War Angel” burned himself out against a longer, rangier opponent who managed to survive the early onslaught and expose his still-lacking grappling.
Breese ticks all of those boxes without the handicap of “Mutante’s” shaky jaw.
While it remains to be seen how Breese’s imposing style will work against bigger men, his wrestling and submission skills are way more than Bamgbose can handle. “The Octopus” holds his own on the feet before dragging Bamgbose down and choking him out.
Prediction: Breese via first-round submission

170 lbs.: Leon Edwards vs. Vicente Luque

Leon Edwards’ (12-3) up-and-down UFC career seemed destined for another valley when he was matched up against Russian destroyer Albert Tumenov at UFC 204. Undaunted, he exploited “Einstein’s” lingering grappling issues to score a third-round submission, just the third of his career.
He will give up an inch of height to the 5’11” Vicente Luque (11-5-1).
Representing Blackzilians on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 21, Luque choked out Nathan Coy before losing a split decision to Hayder Hassan in the climactic showdown. He’s since emerged as an unexpected contender with four consecutive stoppage wins, including brutal knockouts of Hector Urbina and Belal Muhammad in his last two fights.
His 10 stoppage wins are split evenly between knockouts and submissions.
There’s a very good chance this one winds up being “Fight of the Night.” Both men are extremely capable finishers and, at just 25, both figure to have bright futures ahead of them. The match up itself is extremely close, but I’m leaning toward Luque for several reasons.
The first is that Luque figures to have a considerable grappling edge, one larger than the deficit he’s facing on the feet. The other is that, while Edwards has had to dig deep at times, Luque has been more or less unstoppable since losing to Michael Graves in his UFC debut.
Sure, Edwards has been facing stiffer competition, but it’s hard to argue with the sort of confidence Luque’s garnered. He finds his way to Edwards’ neck in the second.
Prediction: Luque via second-round submission

135 lbs.: Ian Entwistlevs. Brett Johns

Ian Entwistle’s (9-3) dogged pursuit of the submission carried him to eight first-round wins, but proved his undoing in his UFC debut when Dan Hooker punished him with elbows. “Enty” got back on track with a 64-second submission of Anthony Birchak, only for history to repeat itself against Alejandro Perez.
No fight of his has ever lasted longer than 4:04.
Brett Johns choked out Walel Watson for the Titan FC Bantamweight title in 2015, but lost it on the scale before a split decision win over Anthony Gutierrez. He nonetheless got the chance to join UFC, where “The Pikey” out-dueled Korean bruiser Kwan Ho Kwak in Belfast.
Four of his six stoppage wins have come by submission.
Look, we all know exactly how this is going to go: Either Entwistle gets a highlight-reel submission in the first few minutes or Johns smashes him to bits while “Enty” cranks on a hopeless kneebar. To get an idea of which outcome I find more accurate, my greatest struggle in predicting this fight is deciding whether Johns will pound him out or choke him out.
Entwistle always has a chance, but he’s long past the point of diminishing returns. Johns keeps his legs out of trouble and bashes his way to a stoppage.
Prediction: Johns via first-round technical knockout

185 lbs.: Brad Scott vs. Scott Askham

Representing Britain on TUF: “Smashes,” Brad Scott (10-4) defeated Xavier Lucas and Benny Alloway before falling to Robert Whittaker on the Finale. He’s alternated wins and losses since, most recently dropping a decision to the surging Krzysztof Jotko in London. This will be hist first fight in over a year and just his third in the last three.
Scott Askham (14-3) — who entered UFC as the reigning BAMMA Middleweight champion — has struggled to stay consistent. He has also alternated losses and wins in his 2-3 run, dropping decisions to Magnus Cedenblad, Krzysztof Jotko and Jack Hermansson.
Nine of his professional wins have come by form of knockout.
Askham’s definitely got the higher ceiling of the two both literally and figuratively. While he’s come up short more than I expected him to, he’s still a towering, durable iddleweight with a lot of power in his limbs. Scott, meanwhile, doesn’t have any standout skills besides toughness and I expect him to struggle with the range.
Regardless of whether Askham ever lives up to his potential, he has more tools and quite a bit more stopping power than the “Bear.” He catches him with something gnarly late in the first.
Prediction: Askham via first-round technical knockout

135 lbs.: Lina Lansberg vs. Lucie Pudilova

Known as the “Elbow Princess,” Linda Lansberg (6-2) answered the call when Cris “Cyborg” needed an opponent for her first UFC headliner. Despite her Muay Thai experience, Lansberg had no answer for her foe’s physicality and ultimately succumbed to strikes in the second.
Four of her six wins have come by form of knockout.
After a decision loss to Lansberg in her fourth professional fight, Lucie Pudilova (6-1) picked up a regional title to kick off a three-fight win streak. She earned submissions in her two most recent bouts, leaving her record an even mix of knockout, submission, and decision wins.
She replaces the injured Veronica Macedo on short notice.
Protip: don’t watch the first fight between these two. I’m pretty sure literally 10 of those 15 minutes were Lansberg holding Pudilova against the fence and throwing knees to the thigh. Neither of them came out looking impressive.
Is a year and a bit enough to make a difference? Probably not, especially not on short notice.
Lansberg more or less got the clinch whenever she wanted and Pudilova’s entire exit strategy was to wait for the referee. The latter does have a four-inch height advantage, but didn’t seem terribly adept at using it. Second verse same as the first as Lansberg clinches her way to another decision.
Prediction: Lansberg via unanimous decision

[Sanity Check]

Do MMA prediction sites keep track of their win/loss record?

Seems like they let oddsmakers do most of the work, go with favorites & don't do much to justify their choices.

[rsynweap84]

UFC Fight Night London

[JIBBBY]

Do MMA prediction sites keep track of their win/loss record?

Seems like they let oddsmakers do most of the work, go with favorites & don't do much to justify their choices.

Yes they do.. MMAMANIA with writer Patrick has one of the best winning records out there over the past 2 years.. Believe me I checked.. That's why I keep posting them up with every event. If anyone finds anything better please post or let me know..

If you notice the Patrick MMAmania write ups mostly point to fighter facts which I like the most.. I don't care for opinions as much as I like fighter facts and trends.. I can form my own opinions after knowing what I need to know.. I don't need or trust any MMA writers ever to pick outcomes for me..

[Hugo de Naranja]

Betting and capping UK fighters that are fighting in London, this isn't getting any easier to cap then the last Brazilian card..

I think Brazilian judges are actually better than UK judges by a decent margin.

[Sato]

Alan Jouban underdog. What do you guys think?

[JIBBBY]

Alan Jouban underdog. What do you guys think?

If it stays standing I give Jouban a very good chance of winning this fight. Jouban is a pretty active striker. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Alan-Jouban-65878

If Gunnar takes him down and controls him Jouban is probably gonna get sub'd out..

Hard fight to nail down.

I'm impressed enough with Jouban's take down defense and wrestling to maybe keep this fight standing.... Wouldn't knock anyone for taking him in this fight.. I do think GN will be jacked up though fighting in London.. The X factor to consider especially with the judging.. Gunnar does have that funky karate style for striking and likes to keep distance...

I'm probably gonna play Gunnar by sub or ITD hedged with Jouban by KO or Decision myself depending on prop odds when they come out....Considering Gunnar has never been KO'd it's probably gonna be Jouban by decision as the hedge..I'll then hope he doesn't get robbed by the Brit judging if it does go to the cards....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Gunnar-Nelson-25246

[Sanity Check]

76'ers are wrecking golden state right now.

Wish I had gotten a piece of it.

Probably would've been near to a +1000.

[JIBBBY]

76'ers are wrecking golden state right now.

Wish I had gotten a piece of it.

Probably would've been near to a +1000.

I saw that and I thought GS would cover the 17 coming off 2 loses and having Philly at home. Philly ML was massive +1900.. Not over yet, GS still has an entire 4th quarter to play it's only a 10 point lead..

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/philadelphia-76ers-golden-state-warriors-2017031409/

[Sanity Check]

Yep Warriors cameback to win it.

Still not playing well though. I'm not sure if Kevin Durant can save them.

[Hugo de Naranja]

76'ers are wrecking golden state right now.

Wish I had gotten a piece of it.

Probably would've been near to a +1000.

I put a small bet on Sixers ML at (+2000). Just missed it