Hugo's Long Shot Props

**Hugo de Naranja** · 04-22-17, 11:14 AM

Originally posted by Ty$

Please tell 邏

OSP Sub at the opener of (+900). I was hoping to get (+350) so I quickly tossed down 2u at that price. Although I'm not impressed with his overall game, OSP has above average submission skills for a LHW. More importantly, RDL is one of the worst quitters I've ever seen. Once he gasses, he immediately looks for the door and prefers to tap rather than getting bludgeoned. He lost to Antonio Carlos Junior on TUF Brazil due to an RNC and both of his UFC losses come by submissions that he made no attempt to defend or fight hands. Unfortunately, it seems the price has plummeted and while I still would have bet it at (+340), there's not crazy value anymore at (+270).

**Hugo de Naranja** · 04-22-17, 01:24 PM

Moreno Submission (+1035). Dude has a nasty Guillotine and Ortiz will be shooting TDs.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 04-22-17, 08:22 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Moreno Submission (+1035). Dude has a nasty Guillotine and Ortiz will be shooting TDs.

Bump

**Hugo de Naranja** · 04-22-17, 11:11 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

OSP Sub at the opener of (+900). I was hoping to get (+350) so I quickly tossed down 2u at that price. Although I'm not impressed with his overall game, OSP has above average submission skills for a LHW. More importantly, RDL is one of the worst quitters I've ever seen. Once he gasses, he immediately looks for the door and prefers to tap rather than getting bludgeoned. He lost to Antonio Carlos Junior on TUF Brazil due to an RNC and both of his UFC losses come by submissions that he made no attempt to defend or fight hands. Unfortunately, it seems the price has plummeted and while I still would have bet it at (+340), there's not crazy value anymore at (+270).

2/2 on LSPs tonight for over 22u profit #Risk A Little, Win A Lot

**Hugo de Naranja** · 06-03-17, 01:31 AM

Looked through props for this card and don't see any great LSPs.

**Eworth1986** · 06-03-17, 08:00 AM

Great work. BOL today

Karolina Kowalkiewicz vrs Claudia Gadelha:Fight Ou
vrs :Fight Outcome
[34078] Karolina Kowalkiewicz By KO,TKO OR DQ
+1000
Risking: $25.00 To Win: $250.00

**Hugo de Naranja** · 06-03-17, 09:06 AM

Originally posted by Eworth1986

Great work. BOL today

Karolina Kowalkiewicz vrs Claudia Gadelha:Fight Ou
vrs :Fight Outcome
[34078] Karolina Kowalkiewicz By KO,TKO OR DQ
+1000
Risking: $25.00 To Win: $250.00

Not a bad shot to take. Thanks for the contribution.

**Eworth1986** · 06-03-17, 10:32 AM

Nate by sub +700

Either he's getting kid or winning by sub

**Eworth1986** · 06-03-17, 10:34 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Not a bad shot to take. Thanks for the contribution.

Thankyou!!!

**Hugo de Naranja** · 06-03-17, 11:27 AM

Originally posted by Eworth1986

Nate by sub +700

Either he's getting kid or winning by sub

Not so sure about that. Vitor is a Black Belt in BJJ and has only lost to Jon Jones by Sub in the UFC. Other than James Te Huna, who has Marquardt subbed in the last decade?

**Eworth1986** · 06-03-17, 12:44 PM

[QUOTE=Hugo de Naranja;27001934]Not so sure about that. Vitor is a Black Belt in BJJ and has only lost to Jon Jones by Sub in the UFC. Other than James Te Huna, who has Marquardt subbed in the last decade?[/QUO

VITORe has looked like a fish out of water recently ON THE GROUNd.. also Alot of people in the mma community say he got the black belt from Dickson just to prop him up for $$ fights back in the day

I totally get what you are saying though

**Eworth1986** · 06-03-17, 12:47 PM

Subbed Jeremy horn.. should tell you all you need to.know

16 wins by sub. 11 by ko

**firekillex** · 06-03-17, 03:08 PM

doubt vitor gets subbed.. id rather marquardt decision +550 range and hope he tries to grind vitor out and be safe for 15 mins

**Hugo de Naranja** · 06-15-17, 04:42 PM

Nunes Round 1 (+425) 2u

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-08-17, 11:00 PM

Junior Dos Santos Decision (+925) 1u

**firekillex** · 08-08-17, 11:51 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Junior Dos Santos Decision (+925) 1u

love that bet pumped to get such juicy odds

**turbozed** · 08-09-17, 03:42 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Junior Dos Santos Decision (+925) 1u

Woah thanks for the tip. That is absurd value. I put a whole unit on it too.

**bjpenn85** · 08-09-17, 05:01 AM

Thanks. Def not correct, im on this one as well!

**turbozed** · 08-21-17, 01:00 AM

JDS +925 decision bet refunded. What a shame

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-21-17, 12:26 PM

Originally posted by turbozed

JDS +925 decision bet refunded. What a shame

Yeah I know right

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-22-17, 01:35 AM

One interesting pattern I noticed during my Tony Ferguson tape study. In his 12 UFC wins, he has repeated a pattern of Finish-Finish-Decision four times with no exceptions. Just a random thing I noticed lol

**Hugo de Naranja** · 09-15-17, 01:43 AM

Moraes (+500)
Moraes Submission (+1035)

**Hugo de Naranja** · 09-21-17, 03:08 PM

Sasaki Submission (+1725) .5u

**turbozed** · 10-04-17, 03:30 AM

Till decision versus Cowboy is +645. Till might be able to goad Cowboy into a kickboxing match where I think Till has the advantage. Till likes to admire his work and hasn't been following guys to the ground for the finish.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 10-04-17, 02:26 PM

Already on it for 1u. You beat me to me post my man!

**Hugo de Naranja** · 10-19-17, 11:26 PM

Arantes ITD (+625)

**Hugo de Naranja** · 10-19-17, 11:31 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Arantes ITD (+625)

Most likely Emmett out-wrestles Arantes to a decision but Arantes has a great Armbar off his back and is live to grab it at any time, even if he is losing the fight on points.

**PaperTrail07** · 10-20-17, 01:04 PM

This is true....has pulled off a few random wild wins via sub

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Most likely Emmett out-wrestles Arantes to a decision but Arantes has a great Armbar off his back and is live to grab it at any time, even if he is losing the fight on points.

**PaperTrail07** · 10-20-17, 01:04 PM

I don't think Till has the advantage anywhere.....buut we will see Sat

Originally posted by turbozed

Till decision versus Cowboy is +645. Till might be able to goad Cowboy into a kickboxing match where I think Till has the advantage. Till likes to admire his work and hasn't been following guys to the ground for the finish.

**turbozed** · 10-21-17, 02:41 AM

This is probably pie in the sky wishful thinking since Touahri is coming in on late notice. But Touahri has finishing power and and Alves slows down later in the fight.

Touahri Rd3 +1900.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 10-21-17, 02:57 AM

Originally posted by turbozed

This is probably pie in the sky wishful thinking since Touahri is coming in on late notice. But Touahri has finishing power and and Alves slows down later in the fight.

Touahri Rd3 +1900.

I think both will slow down big time by that point but I understand where you're coming from here.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 11-18-17, 03:54 PM

Kassem Submission (+1250) .5u

Chambers has lost all 3 of her professional losses and her TUF loss by submission. It's hard to tell if Kassem has much of a submission game but Chambers might just be a quitter when it hits the mat.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 11-18-17, 07:59 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Kassem Submission (+1250) .5u

Chambers has lost all 3 of her professional losses and her TUF loss by submission. It's hard to tell if Kassem has much of a submission game but Chambers might just be a quitter when it hits the mat.

Close but no cigar this time. Chambers stayed tough in those Triangles and Armbars

**Hugo de Naranja** · 12-04-17, 04:50 PM

Ortega Round 3 (+1050) 1u

This prop is a MUST bet! Ortega has finished his last FOUR UFC fights in R3 and Cub can be caught in submissions. Also took .25u shots on Ortega R4 and R5.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 01-13-18, 05:00 PM

Clark Submission (+1450)

PVZ has been submitted in both of her career losses. I could see Clark getting Back Mount in a scramble and getting the tap here even though she's not particularly known for her submission game.