TPowell's Money Burning Thread (MMA)

[TPowell]

I fell in love with this sport not long ago (couple years max) and loved putting down the occasional wager when I could watch the fight. I lost a lot of money doing that more than likely. MMA has mostly been a go out to the bar type of bet for me. I feel like I'm starting to understand the sport better and have good resources now. I'm starting this thread because I want to keep up with how I do over the long haul. I don't advise tailing just yet lol.


WAGERS PENDING:

$50.00

$85.00

Pending

12/30/16 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1001 Amanda Nunes +170* vs Ronda Rousey

[Hugo de Naranja]

I fell in love with this sport not long ago (couple years max) and loved putting down the occasional wager when I could watch the fight. I lost a lot of money doing that more than likely. MMA has mostly been a go out to the bar type of bet for me. I feel like I'm starting to understand the sport better and have good resources now. I'm starting this thread because I want to keep up with how I do over the long haul. I don't advise tailing just yet lol.


WAGERS PENDING:

$50.00

$85.00

Pending

12/30/16 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1001 Amanda Nunes +170* vs Ronda Rousey

Best of luck bud. I'm rooting for ya

[TPowell]

Appreciate it Hugo, gonna have to check out some of your next prop parlays. I hit a few decent ones myself on subs but none were parlayed

[TPowell]

Have Jake Matthews (-300) in a parlay with Oregon ML from yesterday. A little over 1.5 units to win a little over 1 unit. Think Matthews is just better than Holbrook all around. Matthews should have a good edge on the feet and he is the much better wrestler as well. Holbrook does thrive on the ground, but Matthews has some good BJJ and I can't see him letting a one trick pony like Holbrook sub him. I think Matthews probably picks him apart on the feet and drops him. From there, I think he pounds him out but maybe he gets the sub instead. Can't see this fight going the distance and may look at playing that at -150. I would love an under 2.5 at close to even money but all I see is 1.5 out there now.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Have Jake Matthews (-300) in a parlay with Oregon ML from yesterday. A little over 1.5 units to win a little over 1 unit. Think Matthews is just better than Holbrook all around. Matthews should have a good edge on the feet and he is the much better wrestler as well. Holbrook does thrive on the ground, but Matthews has some good BJJ and I can't see him letting a one trick pony like Holbrook sub him. I think Matthews probably picks him apart on the feet and drops him. From there, I think he pounds him out but maybe he gets the sub instead. Can't see this fight going the distance and may look at playing that at -150. I would love an under 2.5 at close to even money but all I see is 1.5 out there now.

Totally onboard with you here. Played Fight Won't Go Distance and Matthews ITD so far.

[TPowell]

Have the OVER 1.5 in the Camozzi/Kelly fight as well that I had in a parlay with college basketball. Just have to close out the OVER now. Camozzi has pillows for fists. His only TKO was over Joe Riggs who gets hurt by a stiff breeze. Dan Kelly is a tough guy but he doesn't really have any attributes that can finish fights. He's been rather lucky in his UFC career IMO but he's a hard worker so its hard to see him getting finished by Camozzi unless he just lets him tee off on him with a dozen or so unanswered shots. Think the price was -220 or something when I got it?

[TPowell]

Another NCAA ML winner is about to finish and I had it with Dan Hooker -160 or so in a parlay. People are trying to convince the public that Knight can do things other than lay on his back but I'm not convinced. Hooker is at HOME in this fight and unless Knight gets the sub, he's going to have to rely on getting a decision over the hometown boy so to speak in Hooker. This fight will be TERRIBLE. Hooker should keep it upright and get the better of Knight by a little bit and no way Knight gets a decision even if he MAY deserve it

[TPowell]

Have about 80% of a unit on Noke at +145. The other 20% is split between the 2nd and 3rd round prop.


Kyle Noke (+145)
Kyle Noke in the 2nd (+1000)
Kyle Noke in the 3rd (+1400)


I think when you look at this fight, you see that Noke really needs this win coming off back-to-back losses. He gets a guy in Omari who has big power in his hands but is very wild and tends to just wing big punches. He has the gas tank for about 1.5 rounds and when he gases, it isn't pretty. By the 3rd round, he generally is out on his feet. He's been finished by strikes in his last 2 fights in the 3rd round. The guy's chin isn't that bad but he tends to just eat so many shots that it doesn't matter. I think Noke takes over in this fight if he makes it past the 1st round and I think he has a shot at finishing him late. The odds on the 3rd round came out at +1650 actually but +1400 still seems high for a guy that gases as bad as Omari does.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Have about 80% of a unit on Noke at +145. The other 20% is split between the 2nd and 3rd round prop.


Kyle Noke (+145)
Kyle Noke in the 2nd (+1000)
Kyle Noke in the 3rd (+1400)


I think when you look at this fight, you see that Noke really needs this win coming off back-to-back losses. He gets a guy in Omari who has big power in his hands but is very wild and tends to just wing big punches. He has the gas tank for about 1.5 rounds and when he gases, it isn't pretty. By the 3rd round, he generally is out on his feet. He's been finished by strikes in his last 2 fights in the 3rd round. The guy's chin isn't that bad but he tends to just eat so many shots that it doesn't matter. I think Noke takes over in this fight if he makes it past the 1st round and I think he has a shot at finishing him late. The odds on the 3rd round came out at +1650 actually but +1400 still seems high for a guy that gases as bad as Omari does.

Fired a full unit on Noke Round 3 at opening odds. That's a steal!

[TPowell]

Alex Volkanovski ML and Brunson/Whittaker NOT going the distance (+112)


Playing this now but hoping that Volkan ML comes down to -150 or less. This guy is a legit Australian prospect. He has some wrestling that you don't really expect from Australians. He's also a solid athlete and he has some ring awareness that you like to see with potential prospects. I can't see Kasuya being able to do much here. Volkan is the better athlete and striker for sure in this fight. Kasuya has some decent subs but he also gases more than you'd like to see. I can see this fight being close in the 1st round potentially and then Volkan picking up a finish in the later rounds or getting an easy decision at home. It would be hard to see him NOT getting a close decision given his potential and being at home. The Brunson under is pretty simple to me. Brunson is an animal who has dynamite in his hands even though he isn't that technical. If he gets the fight to the ground, I think he'll smash Whittaker up pretty easily and get his neck for the choke potentially. I don't think that is very likely unfortunately because Whittaker has great takedown defense. I just can't see these explosive athletes trading leather for 5 rounds and nobody going down before the last bell. Brunson has been knocked out multiple times in the UFC and Whittaker certainly has the power to put him away.

[TPowell]

Fired a full unit on Noke Round 3 at opening odds. That's a steal!

man, more balls than me lol. I may add some more later

[Hugo de Naranja]

Alex Volkanovski ML and Brunson/Whittaker NOT going the distance (+112)
Playing this now but hoping that Volkan ML comes down to -150 or less. This guy is a legit Australian prospect. He has some wrestling that you don't really expect from Australians. He's also a solid athlete and he has some ring awareness that you like to see with potential prospects. I can't see Kasuya being able to do much here. Volkan is the better athlete and striker for sure in this fight. Kasuya has some decent subs but he also gases more than you'd like to see. I can see this fight being close in the 1st round potentially and then Volkan picking up a finish in the later rounds or getting an easy decision at home. It would be hard to see him NOT getting a close decision given his potential and being at home. The Brunson under is pretty simple to me. Brunson is an animal who has dynamite in his hands even though he isn't that technical. If he gets the fight to the ground, I think he'll smash Whittaker up pretty easily and get his neck for the choke potentially. I don't think that is very likely unfortunately because Whittaker has great takedown defense. I just can't see these explosive athletes trading leather for 5 rounds and nobody going down before the last bell. Brunson has been knocked out multiple times in the UFC and Whittaker certainly has the power to put him away.

I believe Brunson has only been KO'ed once in the UFC, in his only UFC loss to Yoel Romero.

[TPowell]

I believe Brunson has only been KO'ed once in the UFC, in his only UFC loss to Yoel Romero.

right, the other was to Jacare before

[TPowell]

Full card right now looks like this:

1U- Alex Volkanovski ML and Brunson/Whittaker NOT going the distance (+112)
0.8U- Kyle Noke ML (+145)
0.1U- Kyle Noke in the 2nd (+1000)
0.1U- Kyle Noke in the 3rd (+1400)

1.5U to win 1U- Jake Matthews ML (closing out a parlay)
1U- Camozzi/Kelly OVER 1.5 rounds (closing out a parlay at slight plus money)
1U- Dan Hooker ML (closing out a parlay at around -110)

[TPowell]

1U- Seohee Ham ML (-110)
0.2U- Danielle Taylor by TKO (+390)

[Hugo de Naranja]

1U- Seohee Ham ML (-110)
0.2U- Danielle Taylor by TKO (+390)

I played this fight similarly. Let's get these $$$

[TPowell]

I played this fight similarly. Let's get these $$$

yep, part of me wants to play Meunier ITD but +260 is a little lower than I wanted. Walsh is such a tough guy though

[Hugo de Naranja]

yep, part of me wants to play Meunier ITD but +260 is a little lower than I wanted. Walsh is such a tough guy though

Jouban starched him in the first.

[TPowell]

0.15U- Jason Knight by SUB (+705)

[TPowell]

0.4U- Jonathan Meunier ITD (+260)


Fight all comes down to whether or not Meunier can keep it technical and in space. If so, he should be able to pick Walsh apart and maybe get the finish

[TPowell]

1U- Derek Brunson ML (to close out a parlay at +140 or so)

[TPowell]

Doing a good job burning money in here so far. Hit a couple live bets at least but not good in here

0.15U- Andrew Holbrook by SUB (+725)

[TPowell]

penetrating joke. 30-27 Taylor is SOOOO bad

[TPowell]

0.6U- Khalil Roundtree by TKO (+180)

[Hugo de Naranja]

penetrating joke. 30-27 Taylor is SOOOO bad

Awful judging. I could see 29-28 Taylor but TWO judges going 30-27 is ridiculous

[TPowell]

Awful judging. I could see 29-28 Taylor but TWO judges going 30-27 is ridiculous

even 29-28 wasn't that good IMO. Ham landed some solid shots in the 2nd.

[Hugo de Naranja]

even 29-28 wasn't that good IMO. Ham landed some solid shots in the 2nd.

Yeah I had it 29-28 Ham as well. Occasional robberies are part of this game. On to the next.

[TPowell]

Doing my thing. Losing money and chasing


Volkanovski points handicap -3½ +145

[TPowell]

Down 0.9 units right now with this left:

0.8U- Kyle Noke (+145)
0.1U- Kyle Noke in the 2nd (+1000)
0.1U- Kyle Noke in the 3rd (+1400)
1U- Alex Volkanovski ML and Brunson/Whittaker NOT going the distance (+112)
1.5U to win 1U- Jake Matthews ML (closing out a parlay)
1U- Derek Brunson ML (to close out a parlay at +140 or so)
0.15U- Andrew Holbrook by SUB (+725)

[Hugo de Naranja]

Down 0.9 units right now with this left:

0.8U- Kyle Noke (+145)
0.1U- Kyle Noke in the 2nd (+1000)
0.1U- Kyle Noke in the 3rd (+1400)
1U- Alex Volkanovski ML and Brunson/Whittaker NOT going the distance (+112)
1.5U to win 1U- Jake Matthews ML (closing out a parlay)
1U- Derek Brunson ML (to close out a parlay at +140 or so)
0.15U- Andrew Holbrook by SUB (+725)

Let's go Noke. Late Round TKO coming

[TPowell]

Let's go Noke. Late Round TKO coming

Hope so, the Ham fight screwed me. Really thought she won that fight. If so, I would be plus money right now. Then the fact that Knight DIDN'T get the sub in that 2nd round. Really thought he had him twice

[TPowell]

Fight Night 101: -3.6 units

[TPowell]

TUF Finale Plays:

Moyle by SUBMISSION (+425) 0.3 units

[TPowell]

TUF 24 Finale Plays:

Moyle by SUBMISSION (+425) 0.3 units
Moyle ML (+125) 0.7 units

[TPowell]

TUF 24 Finale Plays:


0.3 units- Moyle by SUBMISSION (+425)
0.7 units- Moyle ML (+125)
1.33 units- Smith/Mutapcic START Round 3 (-133)
0.15 units- Mutapcic Round 3 (+875)