I follow boxing real close and make my money on big fights.
Andre Ward, who has been very inactive in recent years, is a favorite to jump up in weight class and defeat the best Light Heavyweight in the world. For me this fight is a toss up, with a slight inclination toward a Ward victory.
I can say with utmost confidence, however, that this fight will go the full 12 rounds. Ward was not a puncher at 168, and whatever power he did have will not carry to 175. And While Kovalev is a power puncher, he's going up against one of the best defensive fighters on the planet, who hasn't been anywhere near the canvas in a decade.
All things considered, here is my probability breakdown for the fight:
FOR THE KO:
Ward: 5%
Kovalev: 12%
FOR THE DECISION:
Ward: 44%
Kovalev: 35%
Draw: 4%
This, to me, is an accurate assessment of how this fight may play out. Even giving a more conservative figure, I cannot realistically put the chances of a Kovalev decision lower than 30%. He isn't a one trick pony: This guy CAN BOX.
5dimes current line on a Kovalev decision:
+560 =
15.2%.
This is a steal in value. Granted it is not favorable that this line wins, but it is absolutely worth putting down a small percentage of your bankroll. Or, if you want to play it more conservatively and increase your chances of winning, bet on the fight to go the full distance, which I predict has an 82% chance of happening, at -165, or 62.2%.
Any Boxing fans or bettors out there who wanna swap ideas, feel free to message me.
Andre Ward, who has been very inactive in recent years, is a favorite to jump up in weight class and defeat the best Light Heavyweight in the world. For me this fight is a toss up, with a slight inclination toward a Ward victory.
I can say with utmost confidence, however, that this fight will go the full 12 rounds. Ward was not a puncher at 168, and whatever power he did have will not carry to 175. And While Kovalev is a power puncher, he's going up against one of the best defensive fighters on the planet, who hasn't been anywhere near the canvas in a decade.
All things considered, here is my probability breakdown for the fight:
FOR THE KO:
Ward: 5%
Kovalev: 12%
FOR THE DECISION:
Ward: 44%
Kovalev: 35%
Draw: 4%
This, to me, is an accurate assessment of how this fight may play out. Even giving a more conservative figure, I cannot realistically put the chances of a Kovalev decision lower than 30%. He isn't a one trick pony: This guy CAN BOX.
5dimes current line on a Kovalev decision:
+560 =
15.2%.
This is a steal in value. Granted it is not favorable that this line wins, but it is absolutely worth putting down a small percentage of your bankroll. Or, if you want to play it more conservatively and increase your chances of winning, bet on the fight to go the full distance, which I predict has an 82% chance of happening, at -165, or 62.2%.
Any Boxing fans or bettors out there who wanna swap ideas, feel free to message me.