UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson (October 01, 2016)

**Hugo de Naranja** · 09-30-16, 04:16 PM

UFC Fight Night 96 Draftkings Double Up Lineup:
Louis Smolka ($9,400)
Kelly Faszholz ($8,600)
Keita Nakamura ($8,400)
Curtis Blaydes ($8,300)
John Lineker ($8,100)
Alex Oliveira ($7,200)

UFC Fight Night 96 Draftkings Tournament Lineup:
Louis Smolka ($9,400)
Kelly Faszholz ($8,600)
Keita Nakamura ($8,400)
John Lineker ($8,100)
Nate Marquardt ($8,000)
Jonathan Wilson ($7,500)

**Thrilla** · 09-30-16, 07:44 PM

Weigh-In

Note: Study Finds Fighters That Smile Are More Likely to Lose

**JIBBBY** · 09-30-16, 07:56 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

I've got a counter-offer. Just 50 bet points straight up this time. I'll give them the day of the fight if I lose. Would that work?

Sounds good Hugo, but unless you go PRO you'd be the first non SBR PRO to do that 50 point transfer in one day.

If you can't I'll take 2 points a day for 25 days as that's as much as a non pro is allowed to transfer per day..

50 point bet on... I got Dodson you got Lineker...

**Thrilla** · 09-30-16, 07:59 PM

Jibbby do you know who has the speed advantage now? Johnson or Poirier ?

**JIBBBY** · 09-30-16, 08:05 PM

Originally posted by Thrilla

Jibbby do you know who has the speed advantage now? Johnson or Poirier ?

Thrilla killa what are you talking about?

Last UFC event I suffered a rare loss, won't happen again anytime soon.. Can't keep a good man down for more then 1 event... You guys know how Jibs rolls.. I hit a speed bump every now and then but I never crash.. You especially should know this thrilla..

I'm on this event like flies on shiiit.....

**Thrilla** · 09-30-16, 08:11 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Thrilla killa what are you talking about?

Last even I suffered a rare loss, won't happen again anytime soon.. Can't keep a good man down for more then 1 event... You guys know how Jibs rolls.. I hit a speed bump every now and then but I never crash.. You especially should know this thrilla..

I'm on this event like flies on shiiit.....

I asked in the Poirier vs Johnson thread how much credit to give to Johnson's speed advantage you were the only one to answer and concluded neither had a speed advantage. I know you hedged with Johnson KO, all good so don't start explaining that. But you of all people should have known the rule when in doubt.

**JIBBBY** · 09-30-16, 08:17 PM

I am a firm believer at the top levels always fade Asians and always bet on black..

**UncleChael** · 10-01-16, 11:44 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Either guy could definitely get KO'ed. I've got no illusions about Lineker's striking defense and Dodson hits very hard. That said, I think Lineker will be able to drag Dodson into a brawl and Lineker pretty much always wins that type of fight.

I'll take the guy who found TJs chin.

**JIBBBY** · 10-01-16, 12:05 PM

mmafighting.com - I agree with this guys predictions for the most part.. Except for Lineker and Walt Harris..

John Lineker vs. John Dodson
This is a really tough one to call. Lineker isn't merely a powerful puncher, but has a rock chin and massively-improved takedown defense. Dodson has heavy hands, but is also very fast. Some have suggested Dodson could strike from the outside, stick and move and generally work his way to a decision. I certainly see that as plausible, but even as he routinely misses weight, Lineker's improvements are hard to overlook. There's a question about both fighters' abilities to go the distance over five rounds, although it's hard to tell how badly. All the way back to the Pat Runez fight, Dodson faded in the championship rounds, but Lineker hasn't fought in a fourth or fifth round ever. In the end, I'm going to lean towards the fighter who has been active and on a tear.
Pick: Lineker

Will Brooks vs. Alex Oliveira

Oliveira's coming in overweight, which isn't new, but he won't be allowed to be above 175 pounds tomorrow. That hurts him as he might not be fully rehydrated and rested. In addition, Brooks will have the ability to physically push the pace. That won't happen at a break-neck speed, but as just enough of a clip to wear him down slowly over time against the fence or in top position. A game Oliveira can usually do a lot from his back as a submission threat, but Brooks is pretty disciplined there as well. This should be the American's fight to lose.
Pick: Brooks

Josh Burkman vs. Zak Ottow

Ottow looks like a promising prospect. I don't think winning here is beyond the realm of possibilities by any stretch. He's significantly improved his striking technique over the years, but is still fundamentally an offensive MMA grappler at heart. Burkman lacks for any number of critical elements to successful fighting, but typically, takedown defense isn't one of them. Combine with that an unusual willingness to wildly exchange with very heavy punchers and that just seems like a bridge too far for Ottow. Then again, Burkman is known to routinely enter fights with illnesses or various distractions. If he's off his game, Ottow has an opportunity here.
Pick: Burkman

Louis Smolka vs. Brandon Moreno

Moreno is tough, and has a fair amount of skill in virtually every department of the game, but he's a few steps behind Smolka, particularly on the mat. The Hawaiian gets into positions backwards, has an endless ability to keep scrambling and uses submission attempts as either fight finishers or ways to dominate position. Moreno is athletic and quick, but technically far behind. Add in the fact that Smolka is physically durable as well and one quickly realizes Moreno is overmatched.
Pick: Smolka

From the preliminary card:

Luis Henrique da Silva def. Joachim Christensen
Hacran Dias def. Andre Fili
Walt Harris def. Shamil Abdurakhimov
Keita Nakamura def. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
Tamdan McCrory def. Nate Marquardt
Jonathan Wilson def. Ion Cutelaba
Curtis Blaydes def. Cody East
Kelly Faszholz def. Ketlen Vieira

**THE_LOCKSMITH** · 10-01-16, 01:49 PM

Originally posted by THE_LOCKSMITH

Wow Marquardt nearly +200 against McCrory, both were ko'd in their last fights Tamdan brutally.

Marquardt down to +120

**Thrilla** · 10-01-16, 02:00 PM

- Fast rising lightweight Will Brooks journeys to Chicago to revisit his harrowing past where he battled his family’s struggles and homelessness while developing the mental fortitude necessary for a UFC title run.

**JIBBBY** · 10-01-16, 03:09 PM

This is the one fight I can't get a grip on with this card.. Anyone have any ideas?

Fili coming in on 3 weeks notice makes me want to fade him but he's a solid fighter.. Hacran has been dropped before in the past as well... Just scratching my head with this one fight??? May take a pass...

Thinking maybe taking a shot at the fight won't go the distance prop at those + odds as my only play.... Try small on the Fili KO prop as well..

1504 Fight won’t go 3 round distance

+160

UFC Fight Night 96 - Featherweight 3 rounds - Moda Center - Portland, Oregon - FS2


Sat 10/1	1501 Andre Fili	+155	o2½ -230
10:00PM	1502 Hacran Dias	-175	u2½ +190

FS2

Hacran
Dias
vs
Andre
Fili
"Touchy"

BRAZIL
Country
USA

23-4-1
Record
15-4-0

17%
KO/TKO
53%

35%
SUB
20%

48%
DEC
27%

68 in
Height
70 in

145 lbs
Weight
145 lbs

69 in
Reach
74 in

40 in
Leg Reach
40 in

**Hugo de Naranja** · 10-01-16, 03:21 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

This is the one fight I can't get a grip on with this card.. Anyone have any ideas?

Fili coming in on 3 weeks notice makes me want to fade him but he's a solid fighter.. Hacran has been dropped before in the past as well... Just scratching my head with this one fight??? May take a pass...

Thinking maybe taking a shot at the fight won't go the distance prop at those + odds as my only play.... Try small on the Fili KO prop as well..

1504 Fight won’t go 3 round distance

+160

UFC Fight Night 96 - Featherweight 3 rounds - Moda Center - Portland, Oregon - FS2


Sat 10/1	1501 Andre Fili	+155	o2½ -230
10:00PM	1502 Hacran Dias	-175	u2½ +190

FS2

Hacran
Dias
vs
Andre
Fili
"Touchy"

BRAZIL
Country
USA

23-4-1
Record
15-4-0

17%
KO/TKO
53%

35%
SUB
20%

48%
DEC
27%

68 in
Height
70 in

145 lbs
Weight
145 lbs

69 in
Reach
74 in

40 in
Leg Reach
40 in

I just bet Fili R3 but don't see too much value on this fight. Think Hacran probably grinds out a close decision.

**Snowball** · 10-01-16, 03:27 PM

josh samman in a coma and critical
his friend dead
probably overdose

**JIBBBY** · 10-01-16, 03:37 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

I just bet Fili R3 but don't see too much value on this fight. Think Hacran probably grinds out a close decision.

It could very well go to a decision Hugo but at +160 fight not going distance I think I'm gonna try that.. Both fighters are capable of finishing, not sure how much Fili will have in the gas tank to go the full 3 rounds either.. I'm betting small on this fight not going the distance as I don't see much value in it either..

**JIBBBY** · 10-01-16, 03:40 PM

Originally posted by Snowball

josh samman in a coma and critical
his friend dead
probably overdose

Yeah I saw that Snowball.. Has to be drugs what else could it be? http://www.mmafighting.com/2016/10/1...rtedly-in-coma

**JIBBBY** · 10-01-16, 03:46 PM

Playing this card conservative but confident I will come out winning money with this event.. Alot of hedge play...

Let's start off with the chick fight. Small stuff.. Just looking to win $75 after all is said and done with this.. Or a $50 spot on the flip..

Fight #1

$100.00

Pending

10/1/16 7:00pm UFC Fighting 2101 Ketien Vieria +100* vs Kelly Faszholz

Hedge

$25.00

$149.30

Pending

10/1/16 7:00pm MMA Props Fighting 2131 Faszholz wins by submission +597* vs Any other result

Kelly
Faszholz
vs
Ketlen
Vieira
"Fenomeno"

USA
Country
BRAZIL

3-1-0
Record
6-0-0

0%
KO/TKO
33%

100%
SUB
50%

0%
DEC
17%

68 in
Height
0 in

135 lbs
Weight
135 lbs

67 in
Reach
0 in

40 in
Leg Reach
0 in

**JIBBBY** · 10-01-16, 03:51 PM

Fight #2 -

I like the value on the under with these 2 big boys..

$110.00

$104.80

Pending

10/1/16 7:30pm UFC Fighting 2001 Curtis Blaydes/Cody East Under 1½ -105*

Decided to fade Nate Marq.. as he's washed up and I think he gets KO'd.. Hit the Tamdan by KO prop as well.... I had to do it..

SO I have this 2 team parlay in play with Curtis for this fight.. This is kinda of a hedge on my U1.5 if Blaydes lays and prays to a decision win..

$65.00	$96.30	Pending	2 Team Parlay
				Pending	10/1/16 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1802 Tamdan McCrory -135* vs Nate Marquardt
				Pending	10/1/16 7:30pm UFC Fighting 2001 Curtis Blaydes -235* vs Cody East

UFC Fight Pass Early Prelims

Cody
East
"The Freight Train"
vs
Curtis
Blaydes
"Razor"

USA
Country
USA

12-2-0
Record
5-1-0

75%
KO/TKO
100%

17%
SUB
0%

8%
DEC
0%

75 in
Height
77 in

245 lbs
Weight
265 lbs

74 in
Reach
80 in

41 in
Leg Reach
46 in

**JIBBBY** · 10-01-16, 03:57 PM

Fight #3 -

Couple of strong finishers and bruisers that come out swinging looking for the KO.. I think Cutelaba has a slightly better chance at getting the KO.. Also don't see this fight getting past the 2nd round.. Odds were doable on U1.5 as the main play...

$50.00

$77.50

Pending

10/1/16 8:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1933 Cutelaba wins by TKO/KO +155* vs Any other result

$125.00

$100.00

Pending

10/1/16 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1901 Jonathan Wilson/Ion Cutelaba Under 1½ -125*

Jonathan
Wilson
"Jonny Bravo"
vs
Ion
Cutelaba

USA
Country
REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA

7-1-0
Record
11-2-0, 1NC

86%
KO/TKO
82%

0%
SUB
18%

14%
DEC
0%

73 in
Height
73 in

205 lbs
Weight
205 lbs

75 in
Reach
75 in

42 in
Leg Reach
41 in

**Hugo de Naranja** · 10-01-16, 03:58 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Yeah I saw that Snowball.. Has to be drugs what else could it be? http://www.mmafighting.com/2016/10/1...rtedly-in-coma

Yeah I heard it was a heroin OD. Hope he recovers.

**JIBBBY** · 10-01-16, 04:33 PM

^^^Sounds like it is Heroin Hugo.. Can't see how anyone can jab a needle in their arms to get high, especially a pro sports athlete.. Just stupid... That should be rule number one in life is NEVER stick a needle in you to get high as that's the kiss of death.. Just don't go there!!!! I would never do that, I can't even jab a needle in my ass to take steroids.. Oral or bust for Jibs..

Ok to round off the early prelims... This is how I played it..

Fight #4 -

I originally wanted to take Nate at +200 but just didn't have the stones to play it... Since Nate has been getting dropped lately the smart play has to be Tamdam by KO at +350 odds... McCrory does win the majority of his fights by KO as well... I tried it for a benny... Along with that 2 teamer I mentioned in the above post.. Nate just ain't that Great anymore

$100.00

$350.00

Pending

10/1/16 8:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1833 McCrory wins by TKO/KO +350* vs Any other result

UFC Fight Pass Early Prelims

Nate
Marquardt
"The Great"
vs
Tamdan
McCrory
"The Barn Cat"

USA
Country
USA

37-16-2
Record
14-4-0

32%
KO/TKO
57%

38%
SUB
36%

30%
DEC
7%

72 in
Height
76 in

185 lbs
Weight
185 lbs

74 in
Reach
78 in

42 in
Leg Reach
0 in

**Rich Benjamins** · 10-01-16, 04:42 PM

I'm confident with Blaydes. Maybe the over is a good bet on Blaydes/East? If Blaydes keeps just wrestling him to the ground. I also like Brooks and of course, Smolka. Passing on Dodson/Lineker, just going to enjoy watching that one.

**JIBBBY** · 10-01-16, 04:51 PM

Originally posted by Rich Benjamins

I'm confident with Blaydes. Maybe the over is a good bet on Blaydes/East? If Blaydes keeps just wrestling him to the ground. I also like Brooks and of course, Smolka. Passing on Dodson/Lineker, just going to enjoy watching that one.

Yep on Brooks by decision and Smolka by Sub myself...

**Hugo de Naranja** · 10-01-16, 05:05 PM

Looks like we're pretty much opposite on all of the early fights Jibs

**JIBBBY** · 10-01-16, 05:08 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Looks like we're pretty much opposite on all of the early fights Jibs

Well may the better man win then Hugo.. Lol.. It happens...

I think I got a good grip on this event but we see? You've been pretty hot lately and I struck out in that last event so who knows?... I'm looking to rebound hard though.. I usually do after a bad event loss..

I feel happy, confident and ready to go, unlike the last event.. I could feel there was something a miss going into that last event..

**Snowball** · 10-01-16, 05:31 PM

da silva and ottow here.

**Rich Benjamins** · 10-01-16, 05:50 PM

I've got da Silva too, hoping it wasn't the wrong pick. Christensen might outbox him but he's got a mean clinch game. I've got Da Silva and Brooks as my biggest bets tonite.

**Snowball** · 10-01-16, 06:02 PM

early fight - Cutelaba..

**JIBBBY** · 10-01-16, 06:03 PM

Originally posted by Snowball

da silva and ottow here.

I'm leaning Burkman but didn't like the - odds.. Tough fight to call actually.. I surrendered and just went with the U2.5 at even odds.. Both are VERY capable of finishing the fight..

I may still take Burkman ITD if I'm up on the card myself.. Ottow has a chance though, boy is solid..

1309 Burkman wins inside distance

+159

UFC Fight Night 96 - Lightweight 3 rounds - Moda Center - Portland, Oregon - FS1


Sat 10/1	1301 Zak Ottow	+210	o2½ -115
11:00PM	1302 Josh Burkman	-250	u2½ -105

**JIBBBY** · 10-01-16, 06:12 PM

OK here we go!!! Start time in a few minutes!! Let's get that pay dirt fellas....

**UncleChael** · 10-01-16, 06:30 PM

Some high level MMA going on between these ladies. Dana must be impressed.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 10-01-16, 06:43 PM

One of the more frustrating fights I've watched recently. Faszholz just refusing to stand up despite having countless opportunities to do so.

**JIBBBY** · 10-01-16, 06:44 PM

I'll take this small $75 win.. Just win baby!!!.. Fight 1 down unless a robbery happens with this decision... Onto the next now...

Fight #1

$100.00

Pending

10/1/16 7:00pm UFC Fighting 2101 Ketien Vieria +100* vs Kelly Faszholz

Hedge

$25.00

$149.30

Pending

10/1/16 7:00pm MMA Props Fighting 2131 Faszholz wins by submission +597* vs Any other result

**Hugo de Naranja** · 10-01-16, 06:46 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

I'll take this small $75 win.. Just win baby!!!.. Fight 1 down unless a robbery happens with this decision... Onto the next now...

Fight #1

$100.00

Pending

10/1/16 7:00pm UFC Fighting 2101 Ketien Vieria +100* vs Kelly Faszholz

Hedge

$25.00

$149.30

Pending

10/1/16 7:00pm MMA Props Fighting 2131 Faszholz wins by submission +597* vs Any other result

Don't know that it would have been a robbery as Vieira did almost no damage in R1 despite controlling top position for most of the fight

**JIBBBY** · 10-01-16, 06:47 PM

Well Hugo myslelf and DC announcing had those first 2 rounds for the winner.

One judge scored that for Faszholt, lol...

Ok we are already off to some shaky judging early on..