UFC Fight Night: Caceres vs. Rodriguez - Dog Fights 2x

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-06-16, 11:37 AM

Originally posted by Mxs1332

Hi folks,

Going to test a new strategy based off the martingale system of doubling your bets after each and every loss until one hits and then process resets - rinse wash repeat. Pretty simple. In this specific case i'm only selecting the dogs. In my opinion, heavy favorites have been prone to losing more often ever since USADA arrived.

Starting off with Justin Ledet vs Chase Sherman - 1 unit on Chase to win 1.1

Lets get it!

FOX Sports 1, 10:00 p.m. ET
Alex Caceres vs Yair Rodriguez
Dennis Bermudez vs Rony Jason
Chris Camozzi vs Thales Leites
Zak Cummings vs Santiago Ponzinibbio
Joseph Gigliotti vs Trevor Smith
Justine Kish vs Maryna Moroz

FOX Sports 1, 8:00 p.m. ET
Court McGee vs Dominique Steele
Viktor Pesta vs Marcin Tybura
Jason Novelli vs David Teymur
Horacio Gutierrez vs Teruto Ishihara

UFC Fight Pass 6:30 p.m. ET
Tatsuya Kawajiri vs Cub Swanson
Justin Ledet vs Chase Sherman

I'm interested to see how this system works in practice and I think this is a good card for it. Best of luck!

**UncleChael** · 08-06-16, 11:53 AM

I was thinking of taking the bigger man also, probably just going to watch. These heavyweight are fighting at altitude too, maybe a couple slop fests or early kos, we'll see.

**HurlSweatPants** · 08-06-16, 02:09 PM

This should be interesting, I was reading a book today where the author was heavily against the Martingale for a long term system, especially if you are using books and not betting in Vegas. I hope you take a big crap on his theory tonight. GL

**Mxs1332** · 08-06-16, 02:44 PM

Thanks all! Important to note: I'm doing a test run - more for information purposes not using real $$.

I'm interested to found out if MMA could be different with Martingale. Its much different than table games like poker, blackjack, etc. and seems much harder to cap for bookies to get the lines right.

We'll see how it goes!

**Mxs1332** · 08-06-16, 06:31 PM

First fight: Justin Ledet vs Chase Sherman - Loss

Next fight: Tatsuya Kawajiri vs Cub Swanson

$100 on Tatsuya @+275

Net Total: -$100

**ufcfan2016** · 08-06-16, 06:35 PM

i got kawajiri also at +275...anyone smart enough would know this is the right side dog or pass.

**ufcfan2016** · 08-06-16, 06:43 PM

all is worry is kawajiri cardio guys always fades good first round

**Mxs1332** · 08-06-16, 07:02 PM

Ya great first round but props to Cub. So crafty on the ground and dug deep to get out of some dangerous jams

Second fight: Tatsuya Kawajiri vs Cub Swanson - Loss

Next Fight: Horacio Gutierrez vs Teruto Ishihara

$150 on Gutierrez @+200

Net Total: -$200

**Mxs1332** · 08-06-16, 07:13 PM

Third fight: Horacio Gutierrez vs Teruto Ishihara - Loss

Now its getting interesting. High Stakes approaching!!

Next Fight: Jason Novelli vs David Teymur

$350 on Jason Novelli @+115

Net Total: -$300

**akasars** · 08-06-16, 07:36 PM

What's the max bet $$ you're going by? I think books like Pinny will cap it at just over $1000

**Mxs1332** · 08-06-16, 07:40 PM

Heavy Favorites thus far. Fifth fight lined up for tonight's action.

Fourth fight: Jason Novelli vs David Teymur - Loss
Both fighters currently sit at -105 so it's officially a pick em.

Next fight:Viktor Pesta vs Marcin Tybura

$525 on Tybura @-105

Net Total: -$400

**Mxs1332** · 08-06-16, 07:42 PM

Originally posted by akasars

What's the max bet $$ you're going by? I think books like Pinny will cap it at just over $1000

Luckily I don't think i'll have to. Underdogs at plus odds I can get away with $300 @250 etc on the way up. We'll see though - potential risk I guess

**Mxs1332** · 08-06-16, 08:13 PM

Brutal head kick TKO!!! Vicious.. Fight of the night worthy.

Fifth fight: Viktor Pesta vs Marcin Tybura - Win

Next fight: Court McGee vs Dominique Steele

$100 on Steele @+135

Net Total: +$100

**Mxs1332** · 08-06-16, 09:02 PM

Sixth Fight:Court McGee vs Dominique Steele - Loss

Next fight: Maryna Moroz vs Danielle Taylor

$100 on Taylor @+230

Net Total: $0

**Mxs1332** · 08-06-16, 09:39 PM

Seventh Fight: Maryna Moroz vs Danielle Taylor

Next fight: Joseph Gigliotti vs Trevor Smith

$180 on Smith @+110

Net Total: -$100

**Mxs1332** · 08-06-16, 10:08 PM

Eighth Fight: Joseph Gigliotti vs Trevor Smith

Next fight: Zak Cummings vs Santiago Ponzinibbio

$100 on Cummings @+$100

Net Total: +$100

**Mxs1332** · 08-06-16, 11:18 PM

Ninth Fight: Zak Cummings vs Santiago Ponzinibbio - Loss

Next fight:Chris Camozzi vs Thales Leites

$100 on Camozzi @+$165

Net Total: $0

**Mxs1332** · 08-06-16, 11:21 PM

Tenth Fight: Chris Camozzi vs Thales Leites - Loss

Next Fight: Dennis Bermudez vs Rony Jason

$90 on Jason @+225

Net Total: -$100

**Mxs1332** · 08-06-16, 11:41 PM

Eleventh Fight: Dennis Bermudez vs Rony Jason - Loss

Next Fight: Alex Caceres vs Yair Rodriguez

$114 on Caceres @+255

Net Total: -$190

**firekillex** · 08-07-16, 12:14 AM

You're going to get absolutely buried if you use this system, I seen earlier in the day and was going to warn you from countless people I've seen fail doing this but I though you were at least picking your dog spots so I had some hope never seen that strategy to it, but you're just blindly takin every dog on the card one by one , trust me don't stick to this , long term which probably won't even happen , short term you'll be buried ... Try to actually pick your dog spots and do the strategy this could possibly work GL

**ufcfan2016** · 08-07-16, 12:30 AM

so you down 300 after all that lol

**Mxs1332** · 08-07-16, 08:11 AM

Main Event: Alex Caceres vs Yair Rodriguez - Loss

Net Total: -$304 - AKA 3.04 units

Overall it was a loss on the card but I wonder if this was truly representative of long-term UFC event results. Interesting.

More to come on this.

**Mxs1332** · 08-07-16, 08:13 AM

Was not actually betting for real, just doing an experiment. Wake up ufc!!!!

Someone needs to get you the Phonics Game. ALEX tell this man!

**firekillex** · 08-07-16, 09:38 AM

Originally posted by Mxs1332

Was not actually betting for real, just doing an experiment. Wake up ufc!!!

Fail

**Mxs1332** · 08-07-16, 10:15 AM

Originally posted by Mxs1332

Thanks all! Important to note: I'm doing a test run - more for information purposes not using real $$.

I'm interested to found out if MMA could be different with Martingale. Its much different than table games like poker, blackjack, etc. and seems much harder to cap for bookies to get the lines right.

We'll see how it goes!

HAAA. I could not have made it more explicitly clear

**Mxs1332** · 08-07-16, 10:29 AM

Interested in seeing this go into effect longterm.

So many other possibilities. Does it make sense for the -$300 to carry over into next card? Or Hard reset at $100 and do it all over again.

It will be fun to see how this plays out.