UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley (July 30, 2016)

[Ty$]

I'm leaning towards Lawler, but he could easily lose this fight. It will likely end up 50/50 odds. Lawler is a paper champ anyways. He actually lost in the Condit fight, he also lost to Hendricks in their second fight IMO. The judges gave it to him.

Paper champ? GTFO here ... Wow... Let us know your plays this weekend please.

[Rich Benjamins]

Paper champ? GTFO here ... Wow... Let us know your plays this weekend please.

Haha, maybe that's a harsh term. He does deserve to be champ, he earned it, but I felt he lost those fights even though they were close.

[firekillex]

I'm leaning towards Lawler, but he could easily lose this fight. It will likely end up 50/50 odds. Lawler is a paper champ anyways. He actually lost in the Condit fight, he also lost to Hendricks in their second fight IMO. The judges gave it to him.

definitely not 50/50 and how did he lose the 2nd Hendricks fight when it was 2-2 going into the 5th and he stuffs Hendricks takedown then lands some vicious body shots / kicks after I thought everybody had him winning that , even the condit fight was super close but he was landing some ridiculous shots in the 5th again, dudes literally a demon in the last round , Tyron pretty much has to Ko lawler early, lawler could decision or tko him he has more ways to win here plus has been active which makes this not 50/50 to me but guess we'll see tomorrow night

[Rich Benjamins]

definitely not 50/50 and how did he lose the 2nd Hendricks fight when it was 2-2 going into the 5th and he stuffs Hendricks takedown then lands some vicious body shots / kicks after I thought everybody had him winning that , even the condit fight was super close but he was landing some ridiculous shots in the 5th again, dudes literally a demon in the last round , Tyron pretty much has to Ko lawler early, lawler could decision or tko him he has more ways to win here plus has been active which makes this not 50/50 to me but guess we'll see tomorrow night

It has been awhile, but I thought it was 3-1 Hendricks into the 5th in their 2nd fight. That's just my opinion and others but the judges gave it to Lawler. T-Wood has been out for awhile, that could be good or bad, we could see a huge improvement with him. I agree, Lawler should be the slight favorite, but it's just hard to predict. I'm not wise enough to bet on it either way.

[firekillex]

It has been awhile, but I thought it was 3-1 Hendricks into the 5th in their 2nd fight. That's just my opinion and others but the judges gave it to Lawler. T-Wood has been out for awhile, that could be good or bad, we could see a huge improvement with him. I agree, Lawler should be the slight favorite, but it's just hard to predict. I'm not wise enough to bet on it either way.

All good the 1st round was debatable, I had lawler 1,4,5 but everybody's entitled to their opinion on scoring fights, I take damage more into consideration that's why I had lawler winning these decisions , I don't think anybody wants it more then him in the later rounds... The only way I see him losing to Woodley is if the wars caught up to him and he gets slept but I honestly give him 70% or so shot of victory imo, gotta risk it to get the Benjamin's ... Also if you thinks it's 50/50 take the + money

[99Boxster]

Scoggins/Mcall fight cancelled ..

http://mmajunkie.com/2016/07/video-i...led-weight-cut

Justins brother fights for one of my friends that owns a smaller MMA promotion. I have tickets in his section tomorrow night. I got them off him and his dad cheap, and I was looking forward for him to be tested by a top guy. Oh well. This card is pretty weak anway. I love watching Matt Brown and Robbie Lawler fight though...so hopefully those will be exciting.

[Hugo de Naranja]

All good the 1st round was debatable, I had lawler 1,4,5 but everybody's entitled to their opinion on scoring fights, I take damage more into consideration that's why I had lawler winning these decisions , I don't think anybody wants it more then him in the later rounds... The only way I see him losing to Woodley is if the wars caught up to him and he gets slept but I honestly give him 70% or so shot of victory imo, gotta risk it to get the Benjamin's ... Also if you thinks it's 50/50 take the + money

I love the amount of people saying stuff like "This is probably the fight where Robbie's wars catch up to him." Until I've seen that he can no longer take a punch, (like Ellenberger for example) I'm going to assume he can. Things stay the same a lot more often than they change.

[JIBBBY]

I'm leaning towards Lawler, but he could easily lose this fight. It will likely end up 50/50 odds. Lawler is a paper champ anyways. He actually lost in the Condit fight, he also lost to Hendricks in their second fight IMO. The judges gave it to him.

Lawler is warrior but he's very beatable.. He has been on the verge of losing just about every fight he is in lately.. His luck will run out against Twood.. I'm a fan of Ruthless Robbie, but I had to bet against him in this match up.. Twood too fast and athletic for him.. Good chance Twood stops Ruthless Robbie in this fight..

Trying this to go along with my straight play..

$100.00

$229.00

Pending

7/30/16 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1005 Woodley wins inside distance +229* vs Not Woodley inside distance

UFC title Belts are flipping over like hot cakes on the griddle these days.. Here comes another changing of the guard....

[firekillex]

I love the amount of people saying stuff like "This is probably the fight where Robbie's wars catch up to him." Until I've seen that he can no longer take a punch, (like Ellenberger for example) I'm going to assume he can. Things stay the same a lot more often than they change.

Im not one of those people this is my biggest play of the year so I believe in lawler big time , just saying its a sidenote to be cautious about for others he's been in some of the biggest wars I've ever witnessed multiple times , even in other organizations .. People forget the dudes been fighting since the beginning anybody with 30+ fights has damage on there body but lawlers a different beast and I think Woodley is outmatched here. Catch me in a few months when he fights wonderboy I'll be big on wonderboy to


war lawler

[Ty$]

Im not one of those people this is my biggest play of the year so I believe in lawler big time , just saying its a sidenote to be cautious about for others he's been in some of the biggest wars I've ever witnessed multiple times , even in other organizations .. People forget the dudes been fighting since the beginning anybody with 30+ fights has damage on there body but lawlers a different beast and I think Woodley is outmatched here. Catch me in a few months when he fights wonderboy I'll be big on wonderboy to


war lawler

How big? $500 like jibbs? I'm waiting for Nate to go big. I really hope he slides into higher +

[firekillex]

How big? $500 like jibbs? I'm waiting for Nate to go big. I really hope he slides into higher +

Well big for everybody is different depending on bankroll this is just a fun thing I do on the side for money it's not my career or anything , ill probably put 5 bills since I'm almost at the $500 sbr cash in points if I lose I'll just get my $ back or when I win I'll have another $400 for NFL season haha. And regarding the Diaz/mcgregor fight I was really close to putting something on Nate at +115 but the more I watch mcgregor training the more I like him but I'm not willing to put -120 on him either , basically a no play for me there's to many factors and I just want to enjoy that fight as a fan , but I could see why anybody would back a underdog who now has a full camp and already beat that opponent months ago.. But I also think Connor was handling him in the first and then got caught 2nd and it all went downhill since he started gassing plus got caught clean .. I think he fights more conservative no spinning kicks and shit the way to beat Nate is leg kicks so if he utilizes that with his body shots I think he could win a decision it'll be super tough regardless

[Hugo de Naranja]

Lawler is warrior but he's very beatable.. He has been on the verge of losing just about every fight he is in lately.. His luck will run out against Twood.. I'm a fan of Ruthless Robbie, but I had to bet against him in this match up.. Twood too fast and athletic for him.. Good chance Twood stops Ruthless Robbie in this fight..

Trying this to go along with my straight play..

$100.00

$229.00

Pending

7/30/16 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1005 Woodley wins inside distance +229* vs Not Woodley inside distance

UFC title Belts are flipping over like hot cakes on the griddle these days.. Here comes another changing of the guard....

I think if Woodley wins it's probably by early stoppage. This play has lost a bit of value since the opener though

[mirinquads]

Woodley has a great chance to finish in round 1 or 2, but he's an almost completely one handed fighter. Strikes with his right hand, and does not really have a jab. Rarely if even throws in combination. He does have crazy knockout power though, and Lawler is southpaw, so the path of his right will likely become more clear.
He's a very explosive wrestler but Lawlers TDD is some of the most technical in the division, and he's very very hard to control when you get him down there, and he attacks very well from different scrambling positions. I expect this to mostly take place on the feet.
Lawler will show you a lot of different looks on the feet, and it seems that when Woodley is pressured, and has someone who's hard to figure out for him, and who he can't just hit with his right hand counter over and over, he will go into a defensive shell, and just cover up and back up on the cage.. This will be terrible against Lawler. Even though he's gotten better at switching the double threat of his shot and his right hand up. In theory, Robbie should figure this out quickly and pick Woodley apart.
But there's a big if, his durability with all the brutal wars, he's gotten hurt a lot lately, although he's super hard to put away. We know hes super technical and defensively sound on the feet, but his fights just has me worried lately.. His total lack of a jab in the Condit fight, taking the middle rounds off in every single fight lately.
Obviously Woodley should have the worse cardio, but this is not a certainty, if Robbie doesn't put the pace on him, and work the body like he did against Hendricks for example. If we get just-throwing-huge-bombs-sprotically Lawler like against Condiut, it could end badly for him.

Woodley rd 1-2, Lawler 4-5, fight ends tko -140. I will see where the line goes from there.

[mirinquads]

Easy Jibby, Masvidal is too inactive to be -600 against anyone.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Parlay of Brown and Ruthless is (+128). That seems like a decent bet

[JIBBBY]

Easy Jibby, Masvidal is too inactive to be -600 against anyone.

Masvidal has made a point to increase his output, it showed in his last fight.. The Masvidal of years ago I would agree with your betting logic Miri, but the current Masvidal isn't gonna keep getting robbed in close decision losses..

I don't see Masvidal losing to a guy like Ross Pearson whom is basically a stepping stone now for better fighters.. A journeyman of sorts... Ross fights too stiff, he's too muscular and compact and doesn't flow as well standing as Masvidal does, he's not as good technically... Ross is certainly not better on the ground either...

I see this being a standing clinic for Masvidal, probably wins by decision but I wouldn't necessarily rule out a late stoppage by Jorge if he is really putting it on Ross in the later rounds.. Even as tough as Ross is he has been finished before by guys like Al Iaquinta and Cub Swanson if memory serves me right..

Masvidal is a better striker IMO then both Al Iaguinta and Cub Swanson.. Cub Swanson is pretty solid standing though.. Masvidal got robbed in his fight against Al Iaquinta just for the record..

[firekillex]

Using brown in 2 fight parlays as a main piece , basically get -110 to + juice with any person you like if you add him . Could get buried if he loses but I like this fight for him. Add in masvidal , graves , krylov, scoggins , others you like

Parlay of Brown and Ruthless is (+128). That seems like a decent bet

add in lawler for that to definitely good value imo

[Hugo de Naranja]

add in lawler for that to definitely good value imo

Yeah Lawler is Ruthless so he's already in it

[firekillex]

Jibby you know al iaquinta beat masvidal right...
and how has he increased his output if he literally just lost his last 2 fights by not putting out enough output against Larkin and bendo

im on masvidal here but anything over -300 would be crazy Imo he's 1-3 in his last 4 fights and Ross Pearson is no slouch I think this fight will be a lot closer then ya think . -600 would literally have to be Jon Jones vs Chael sonnen or Basicslly a lock not a fight that could eaisly be a war

[firekillex]

Yeah Lawler is Ruthless so he's already in it

lol... That's what I was saying

[Hugo de Naranja]

lol... That's what I was saying

Also Matt Brown looked huge relative to Ellenberger at weigh-ins

[Hugo de Naranja]

lol... That's what I was saying

haha got it

[JIBBBY]

Jibby you know al iaquinta beat masvidal right...
and how has he increased his output if he literally just lost his last 2 fights by not putting out enough output against Larkin and bendo

im on masvidal here but anything over -300 would be crazy Imo he's 1-3 in his last 4 fights and Ross Pearson is no slouch I think this fight will be a lot closer then ya think . -600 would literally have to be Jon Jones vs Chael sonnen or Basicslly a lock not a fight that could eaisly be a war

Larkin fight was a robbery.... Masvidals volume increased if you look closely at that fight..

Masvidal got robbed in that fight against Al Iaquinta too.. Masvidal had AL out on his feet.. Judges were blind.. Masvidal is a better striker then Al Iaquinta IMO..

[firekillex]

Also Matt Brown looked huge relative to Ellenberger at weigh-ins

Yup matt brown at his new camp in Denver looks like it'll benefit him more then ellenbergers camp change as well, Kings has champs well previous champions they need to focus mainly on( his main training partner is beneil dariush ) great fighter but nothing like Matt brown at all and he's a lightweight ... Browns been training with guys who are catering to him, the best ground fighters in the world have been coming to train with him so even if he's taken down he could easily sub ellenberger.. Plus Neil magny is with him training hard which will benefit his cardio . Ellenberger looks way different even more confirming he was probably on the juice before hence him being less aggressive and appearing weaker in the clinch and him going downhill so fast. Brown by rape tko Rd2

lets get this cheddar Hugo

[JIBBBY]

I guess I'm the only one betting on Twood on this forum.. I like my chances!!!...Jibs against everyone else..

Lawler is going down... Pop goes the weasel...

[firekillex]

Yes I know, Masvidal got robbed in that fight against Al Iaquinta.. Masvidal had AL out on his feet.. Judges were blind.. Masvidal is a better striker then Al Iaquinta IMO..

Definitely got robbed I'll agree with you there, but he took his gas off the pedal like an idiot and got screwed he has himself to blame as much as the judges there, he had the fight and threw it away .. Guy has a ton of talent but his fight IQ is extremely questionable sometimes... Either way I'm on masvidal in a few parlays and he should win regardless just saying -600 is overexaggerating lol this is a decently close fight Ross Pearson usually stays in fights and rarely gets starched, I think will brooks is easily on larkins level and he gave him a super super tough fight just a month or 2 ago

[HurlSweatPants]

Felt Lawler got the refs favor in the Condit fight for sure, I rewatched it again this week (as well as his fight with Nick Diaz just for fun) and felt it was 3-2 Condit, giving RL 2 and 5. I think his forward pace and the fact that he throws so hard is what gives him the juice w the judges. I don't see this one getting that far though, would like to see Woodley get Marquarted again.

[firekillex]

I guess I'm the only one betting on Twood on this forum.. I like my chances!!!...Jibs against everyone else..

Lawler is going down... Pop goes the weasel...

Sir that was 12 years ago lol, aka light years in mma

[Hugo de Naranja]

Yup matt brown at his new camp in Denver looks like it'll benefit him more then ellenbergers camp change as well, Kings has champs well previous champions they need to focus mainly on( his main training partner is beneil dariush ) great fighter but nothing like Matt brown at all and he's a lightweight ... Browns been training with guys who are catering to him, the best ground fighters in the world have been coming to train with him so even if he's taken down he could easily sub ellenberger.. Plus Neil magny is with him training hard which will benefit his cardio . Ellenberger looks way different even more confirming he was probably on the juice before hence him being less aggressive and appearing weaker in the clinch and him going downhill so fast. Brown by rape tko Rd2

lets get this cheddar Hugo

Hell yeah bro. A ton of people independently picking Brown by Rd 2 TKO, myself included.

[firekillex]

A lot of questions will be answered tomorrow
somebody here is going to look terrible lmao

best of luck to all

[Ty$]

I guess I'm the only one betting on Twood on this forum.. I like my chances!!!...Jibs against everyone else..

Lawler is going down... Pop goes the weasel...

Hey if twood does win it wouldn't surprise me in this year of upsets. I jus gotta go w my gut. People think all the tough fights will all of sudden make Lawler an easy KO... Doubt it. Guys that fought early 1900s would pile up over 100 fights. Lawler is old school as they get and he takes this by KO.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Felt Lawler got the refs favor in the Condit fight for sure, I rewatched it again this week (as well as his fight with Nick Diaz just for fun) and felt it was 3-2 Condit, giving RL 2 and 5. I think his forward pace and the fact that he throws so hard is what gives him the juice w the judges. I don't see this one getting that far though, would like to see Woodley get Marquarted again.

For close rounds, judges tend to default to the champion. Not very many champs lose their titles to close decisions.

[HurlSweatPants]

For close rounds, judges tend to default to the champion. Not very many champs lose their titles to close decisions.

I.e the machida rua fight.

[firekillex]

For close rounds, judges tend to default to the champion. Not very many champs lose their titles to close decisions.

Exactly , not sure why nobody sees that
anytime the fights even close the champion gets the nod and rightfully should
champion is like home field advantage in sports if you wanna be the king you gotta take the king out or desicevely beat him.... But judges are all over the place in the Rory fight they actually had Rory up 2 rounds going into the 5th so lawler needed to finish or 10-8 for a win since draws go to the champ , then he finishes him by taking his soul Imo one of the most underrated finishes in history I don't think Tyron can stand in the fire and survive

[HurlSweatPants]

Exactly , not sure why nobody sees that
anytime the fights even close the champion gets the nod and rightfully should
champion is like home field advantage in sports if you wanna be the king you gotta take the king out or desicevely beat him.... But judges are all over the place in the Rory fight they actually had Rory up 2 rounds going into the 5th so lawler needed to finish or 10-8 for a win since draws go to the champ , then he finishes him by taking his soul Imo one of the most underrated finishes in history

I get it, for sure. I just think Condit won 1,3, and 4 decisively. But the 5th round was epic and I had money on Lawler so I was happy. The Rory fight at the end of round 4 still gives me the shivz.