UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko (July 23, 2016)

[JIBBBY]

Holm down to -200 reduced juice... Keep waiting guys ... 

Yep, I'm going with Holm myself and playing her straight.. Eating the - odds in this one.. Hope it goes down to -185 but not convinced it will..

Still -210 on 5D.. Current odds...

UFC on Fox 20 - Bantamweight 5 rounds - United Center - Chicago, Illinois - Fox

Sat 7/23		1001 Valentina Shevchenko		+175	o4½ -175
9:30PM		1002 Holly Holm		-210	u4½ +155

[BIGDAY]

Jibber, take the -200.

[PaperTrail07]

Holm is the play IMO as well....Make some $ JIBBERS>....

[Sanity Check]

I don't know if Holly Holm is a safe play.

Her reactions & reflexes look to be slowing. She didn't react as fast as she normally would to Miesha's takedowns.

Could be her age as a fighter is showing.

Not that it matters since Shevchenko probably won't go for takedowns but Holly is looking like she's lost a step.

[JIBBBY]

Jibber, take the -200.

I hear ya Bigday... Already hit it when it dropped to -220 the other day.. .. Didn't think it would drop much more.. I'll hit it again if it gets to -190...

$500.00

$227.30

Pending

7/23/16 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1002 Holly Holm -220* vs Valentina Shevchenko

[JIBBBY]

Holm is the play IMO as well....Make some $ JIBBERS>....

Yep Paper, you gotta figure if the fight stays standing which it probably will that's fighting to Holly Holms strength.. She needs this win after losing the belt too, it's a big fight for her.

She looks jacked as well in her recent interviews.. I like her chances in this one...


Chael Sonnen on the fight (he sees Holly winning in the 3rd round by KO) link below -

Pending

7/23/16 9:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1041 Holm wins by TKO/KO +325* vs Any other result

http://espn.go.com/mma/story/_/id/17120796/former-champion-holly-holm-returns-ufc-fight-night-chicago

[Ty$]

Yep, I'm going with Holm myself and playing her straight.. Eating the - odds in this one.. Hope it goes down to -185 but not convinced it will..

Still -210 on 5D.. Current odds...

UFC on Fox 20 - Bantamweight 5 rounds - United Center - Chicago, Illinois - Fox

Sat 7/23		1001 Valentina Shevchenko		+175	o4½ -175
9:30PM		1002 Holly Holm		-210	u4½ +155

Check the reduced juice jibbers

[Hugo de Naranja]

In case I don't get the chance to post tomorrow, here's my picks:
Smoliakov Rd 1 TKO
Knight Unanimous Decision
Moontasri Rd 2 TKO
Prazeres Unanimous Decision
Usman Unanimous Decision
Pepey Rd 1 Submission
Saenz Unanimous Decision
Curran Unanimous Decision
Ngannou Rd 1 KO
Barboza Unanimous Decision
Shevchenko Split Decision

[Hugo de Naranja]

and plays:
Fight #1: Henrique vs. Smoliakov
No Play


Fight #2: Knight vs. Alers
Jason Knight (+190) 1u


Fight #3: Olivera vs. Moontasri
No Play


Fight #4: Prazeres vs. Cottrell
Under 2.5 Rounds (+200) 1u
Cottrell ITD (+860) .5u


Fight #5: Usman vs. Yakovlev
Alexander Yakovlev (+185) .5u
Alexander Yakovlev (+215) 1u


Fight #6: Elkins vs. Pepey
Godofredo Pepey ITD (+325) 1.25u
Godofredo Pepey Round 1 (+500) .5u


Fight #7: Saenz vs. Wineland
Frankie Saenz (-160) 3.2u to win 2u
Frankie Saenz -3.5 (+190) .5u


Fight #8: Herrig vs. Curran
No Play


Fight #9: Ngannou vs. Mihajlovic
Francis Ngannou Round 2 (+525) .5u
Francis Ngannou Submission (+585) .5u


Fight #10: Barboza vs. Melendez
Edson Barboza Decision (+125) 1u
Edson Barboza Decision (+148) 1.5u
Gilbert Melendez Scorecards = NA (+233) 2u
Gilbert Melendez KO/TKO (+980) .5u


Fight #11: Holm vs. Shevchenko
Valentina Shevchenko (+290) 1u
Valentina Shevchenko (+350) 2u
Valentina Shevchenko KO/TKO (+1125) .5u
Holm/Shevchenko Draw (+16500) .2u


Draftkings:
Pepey
Ngannou
Saenz
Barboza
Moontasri

Best of luck everyone!

[Sanity Check]

Have it like this.

Holly Holm < Valentina Shevchenko
Edson Barboza > Gilbert Melendez
Francis Ngannou > Bojan Mihajlovic
Felice Herrig < Kailin Curran
Frankie Saenz > Eddie Wineland
Alex Oliveira > James Moontasri
Darren Elkins < Godofredo Pepey
Kamaru Usman < Alexander Yakovlev
Michel Prazeres > J.C. Cottrell
Héctor Urbina < George Sullivan
Jim Alers < Jason Knight
Luis Henrique > Dmitry Smolyakov

[UncleChael]

Can't wait. Go Curran! Go Edson!

[Capybara]

Reduced juice on Holly now -197. Still a little scared to play that, wish I felt more certain. Also don't have a good feel on whether it goes the distance or not, which sucks because that would be one way to cut the juice down.

[Thrilla]

Weigh-In

Note: Study Finds That Smiling Fighters Are More Likely to Lose

[GoBlue77]

don't see how anyone can feel confident on barboso. he's the picture of inconsistency. not surprising odds continue to drop on him

[BIGDAY]

don't see how anyone can feel confident on barboso. he's the picture of inconsistency. not surprising odds continue to drop on him

Yeah, but Melendez is simply on his way out. Guy's a hasbeen.

[GoBlue77]

Yeah, but Melendez is simply on his way out. Guy's a hasbeen.

my point exactly. the very type of guy barbs will lose to.

[JIBBBY]

don't see how anyone can feel confident on barboso. he's the picture of inconsistency. not surprising odds continue to drop on him

Barbosa looked damn good in his last fight picking apart Anthony Pettis at distance.. Don't see why he won't make this another standing clinic against Gilbert Melendez..

I think Barboza has to be the call in this fight.. UN Decision..

[Rich Benjamins]

Here are my bets, got some influence from JIBBBY, I like the Moonsari submission bet. None of the bets are a lock. But I think the lines are right on this card, all of the favorite deserve to be so.

387529398-1	7/23/16 12:35pm	$70.00	$80.50	Pending	7/23/16 9:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1111 Barboza wins by 3 round decision +115* vs Not Barboza by 3 round decision
387529398-2	7/23/16 12:35pm	$50.00	$80.00	Pending	7/23/16 8:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1307 Curran wins by 3 round decision +160* vs Not Curran by 3 round decision
387529398-3	7/23/16 12:35pm	$82.50	$75.00	Pending	7/23/16 7:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1511 Elkins wins by 3 round decision -110* vs Not Elkins by 3 round decision
387529398-4	7/23/16 12:35pm	$30.00	$206.70	Pending	7/23/16 5:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1827 Moontasri wins by submission +689* vs Any other result
387529398-5	7/23/16 12:35pm	$50.00	$300.00	Pending	7/23/16 4:00pm MMA Props Fighting 12045 Dmitry Smolyakov wins fastest KO +600* vs Any other result
387518171-1	7/23/16 10:13am	$82.50	$50.00	Pending	7/23/16 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1001 Valentina Shevchenko/Holly Holm Over 4½ -165*
387517696-1	7/23/16 10:02am	$117.50	$50.00	Pending	7/23/16 6:00pm UFC Fighting 1701 J.C. Cottrell/Michel Prazeres Over 2½ -235*
387493084-1	7/22/16 11:50pm	$105.00	$50.00	Pending	7/23/16 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1002 Holly Holm -210* vs Valentina Shevchenko
387493084-2	7/22/16 11:50pm	$95.00	$50.00	Pending	7/23/16 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1101 Gilbert Melendez/Edson Barboza Over 2½ -190*
387493084-3	7/22/16 11:50pm	$300.00	$150.00	Pending	7/23/16 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1301 Kailin Curran/Felice Herrig Over 2½ -200*
387299000-1	7/21/16 12:04pm	$337.50	$150.00	Pending	7/23/16 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1102 Edson Barboza -225* vs Gilbert Melendez
387299000-2	7/21/16 12:04pm	$57.50	$50.00	Pending	7/23/16 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1301 Kailin Curran -115* vs Felice Herrig

[bjpenn85]

don't see how anyone can feel confident on barboso. he's the picture of inconsistency. not surprising odds continue to drop on him

Inconsistency is maybe not the correct term. Barboza has lost to michael johnson and tony ferguson lately except for that he has pretty much won against quite good opposition. Obviously, he also lost to donald cerrone, but a lot of people will loose to cowboy, i dont think thats a sign of inconsistency, more so that he gets tricky matchups. And i think barboza is pretty consistent in a standup fight, he wins and brutalize people. He didnt win against johnson because johnson knew how to fight barboza. When he then met tony ferg, he knew he that tony would pressure him so he had a traning camp focusing on fighting backwards, and he did a great job fighting tony like that. But you cant beat tony ferguson. We all know that. Very few people say yes to fight tony. Should he get knocked down by melendez and finished, i would def call him inconsistent, so hes borderline hehe. But not as of know.

[Rich Benjamins]

Here are my bets, got some influence from JIBBBY, I like the Moonsari submission bet. None of the bets are a lock. I also don't see too many KOs happening on this card. So I put Smolyakov as the fastest KO of the night. A lot of people are saying Herrig is going to win, but I think Curran has the edge. Curran has faster striking, and is a younger, developing fighter, I'm banking on her improving in this fight.

But I think the lines are right on this card, all of the favorite deserve to be so.

387529398-1	7/23/16 12:35pm	$70.00	$80.50	Pending	7/23/16 9:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1111 Barboza wins by 3 round decision +115* vs Not Barboza by 3 round decision
387529398-2	7/23/16 12:35pm	$50.00	$80.00	Pending	7/23/16 8:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1307 Curran wins by 3 round decision +160* vs Not Curran by 3 round decision
387529398-3	7/23/16 12:35pm	$82.50	$75.00	Pending	7/23/16 7:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1511 Elkins wins by 3 round decision -110* vs Not Elkins by 3 round decision
387529398-4	7/23/16 12:35pm	$30.00	$206.70	Pending	7/23/16 5:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1827 Moontasri wins by submission +689* vs Any other result
387529398-5	7/23/16 12:35pm	$50.00	$300.00	Pending	7/23/16 4:00pm MMA Props Fighting 12045 Dmitry Smolyakov wins fastest KO +600* vs Any other result
387518171-1	7/23/16 10:13am	$82.50	$50.00	Pending	7/23/16 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1001 Valentina Shevchenko/Holly Holm Over 4½ -165*
387517696-1	7/23/16 10:02am	$117.50	$50.00	Pending	7/23/16 6:00pm UFC Fighting 1701 J.C. Cottrell/Michel Prazeres Over 2½ -235*
387493084-1	7/22/16 11:50pm	$105.00	$50.00	Pending	7/23/16 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1002 Holly Holm -210* vs Valentina Shevchenko
387493084-2	7/22/16 11:50pm	$95.00	$50.00	Pending	7/23/16 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1101 Gilbert Melendez/Edson Barboza Over 2½ -190*
387493084-3	7/22/16 11:50pm	$300.00	$150.00	Pending	7/23/16 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1301 Kailin Curran/Felice Herrig Over 2½ -200*
387299000-1	7/21/16 12:04pm	$337.50	$150.00	Pending	7/23/16 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1102 Edson Barboza -225* vs Gilbert Melendez
387299000-2	7/21/16 12:04pm	$57.50	$50.00	Pending	7/23/16 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1301 Kailin Curran -115* vs Felice Herrig

[CaptChaos145]

i see a few -200 favs that are better value in the next few weeks imo
barbosa has had a few good fights in a row but a lot of people are sleeping on Melendez here ...
barbosa has shown holes in his game even recently ( Ferguson , Johnson,cerrone ) Melendez is coming off a suspension and a really close loss, basically anytime he loses its a close affair and for -200+ I usually want an almost guarantee win 70%+ .... I give barbosa the edge with his speed and length but man Melendez is definitely a live dog , dudes super durable and Ina 3 round fight he could easily grind 2 out in ugly fashion the way that most people beat barbosa ... So be careful putting 10 units to win like 4 on a guy who's pretty inconsistent ... I'm still cheering for barbosa though dudes a beast and I want the drama factor to see if he'll be willing to fight his teammate Eddie Alvarez for the title if he wins? Or do they give the shot to Khabib or Ferguson

Ferguson took everything Barbosa threw at him and Ferguson kept walking him down. Johnson used his speed and pressure. Cerrone was getting beat on the feet until he clipped Edson. Gilbert possesses none of the above. He's got good ground and pound but it's unlikely he gets Barbosa to the ground. Plus Gilbert gets paid big money. I question his desire these days!

[Rich Benjamins]

Melendez almost lost to Diego Sanchez. As bad as Sanchez has looked lately, that's a negative for Melendez. Although perhaps Sanchez just had a good night and Melendez had an off night.

[BIGDAY]

Edson possibly the easiest call on the card fellas.

[JIBBBY]

Edson possibly the easiest call on the card fellas.

I'm really liking Daren Elkins myself if we're comparing near similar odds for a solid bet on this card..

Daren Elkins has really turned it up lately and looked great against Skelly in his last fight whom is no easy out. I seriously don't think the Brazilian Pepey can beat him on the ground and he surely won't out work Elkins standing.. Elkins grinds out a UN decision most likely ..

Edson bet is solid as well and should get this win if he doesn't get clipped by the pressure fighter Gilbert. I'm big Edson myself as well.

[beermankirk]

Sat 7/23 2301 Valentina Shevchenko +152 06:45 PM 2302 Holly Holm -172

[beermankirk]

did anyone see these line moves coming? Svetchenko keeps getting hit...

[Ty$]

Yes I called it yesterday keep waiting ... Darren Elkins and Holly are the locks of the card... I'm betting on Gilbert too.

[BIGDAY]

I'm really liking Daren Elkins myself if we're comparing near similar odds for a solid bet on this card..

Daren Elkins has really turned it up lately and looked great against Skelly in his last fight whom is no easy out. I seriously don't think the Brazilian Pepey can beat him on the ground and he surely won't out work Elkins standing.. Elkins grinds out a UN decision most likely ..

Edson bet is solid as well and should get this win if he doesn't get clipped by the pressure fighter Gilbert. I'm big Edson myself as well, I think he wins by decision..

He should have no problem getting this fight to the ground and taking care of biz. Easy win for Elkins.

[Rich Benjamins]

As you can see in my earlier post, i put down a good chunk on Edson. Only thing that worries me about it is Gilbert did have a good performance vs Alvarez, who is now champion. And Anthony Pettis looked super bad last fight more than Barboza looked good.

[JIBBBY]

As you can see in my earlier post, i put down a good chunk on Edson. Only thing that worries me about it is Gilbert did have a good performance vs Alvarez, who is now champion. And Anthony Pettis looked super bad last fight more than Barboza looked good.

Don't over think it Richie.. Just bet on Barboza and win that pay dirt..

[bjpenn85]

As you can see in my earlier post, i put down a good chunk on Edson. Only thing that worries me about it is Gilbert did have a good performance vs Alvarez, who is now champion. And Anthony Pettis looked super bad last fight more than Barboza looked good.

Gilbert lost two rounds against a fighter with one eye. And because he clipped alvarez in round 1, and looked ok, i wouldnt say that he looked good, have you seen the fight?

The matchup is easy, edson wins standup fight and will win aganst melendes as well, unless he gets clipped. And we should all be worried for that event to occur.

[terpkeg]

Melendez almost lost to Diego Sanchez. As bad as Sanchez has looked lately, that's a negative for Melendez. Although perhaps Sanchez just had a good night and Melendez had an off night.

Melendez dominated 14 minutes of that fight iirc

[Rich Benjamins]

No I haven't seen the fight. I just know it was a split decision.

[Thrilla]

265 lbs.: Luis Henrique (8-2) vs. Dmitry Smolyakov (8-0)

Brazil’s Henrique entered the UFC on a six-fight winning streak, moving up from 205 to heavyweight to take on hulking Frenchman Francis Ngannou. He managed to take the first round with solid grappling, but ultimately suffered a one-punch knockout midway through the second. He’s knocked out three opponents and submitted another two.
Russia’s Smolyakov, a Master of Sport in both freestyle and Greco-Roman wrestling, has dispatched all eight of his opponents in the first round. Four of those wins have come within the first minute, his last two wins lasting a combined forty-five seconds. He will give up an inch of height to "KLB."
Henrique’s fight with Ngannou did nothing to convince me that he should keep fighting at heavyweight. He weighed in nearly fifty pounds heavier than in his previous fight and it showed, as he ran out of steam after a decent first round. Smolyakov, meanwhile, is a true, thickly-built heavyweight with the wrestling background to shut down Henrique’s takedowns and the power to put him down for the third time in his career.
Smolyakov may be unproven past the first round, but Henrique’s quite unlikely to last that long. The Russian tears him apart with rapid punches early in the first.
Prediction: Smolyakov by first-round TKO

- Dmitry Smolyakov vs Lukas Batovsky (Russia Regional,2015.12.05)

[Rich Benjamins]

Sounds good. GL Jibbs.