UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez (July 07, 2016)

JIBBBY · 06-24-16, 07:37 PM

Going big on RDA and ITD.. I think he cleans Eddie Alvarez standing, it starts with RDA's kicks..

Ty$ · 06-24-16, 08:03 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Going big on RDA and ITD.. I think he cleans Eddie Alvarez standing, it starts with RDA's kicks..

This makes me sad... I'm on Alvarez at over +300 it's too good to be true... He's been a top 5 lightweight for like 10 years. He could put wrestle him or even land a hard punch. RDA has been stopped and I think his reign is over... And with the way these big underdogs have been winning its jus too much for me not to.

Sykes · 06-24-16, 10:26 PM

Wouldnt go big on anyone. You see howmuch the belts changed since this drug testing guy come in? Sit still bet small.

Ultimatemeatball · 06-24-16, 10:48 PM

Originally posted by Sykes

Wouldnt go big on anyone. You see howmuch the belts changed since this drug testing guy come in? Sit still bet small.

Realistically, how long until the fall-out is over and we know what we are dealing with?

JIBBBY · 06-25-16, 11:19 AM

Originally posted by Ty$

This makes me sad... I'm on Alvarez at over +300 it's too good to be true... He's been a top 5 lightweight for like 10 years. He could put wrestle him or even land a hard punch. RDA has been stopped and I think his reign is over... And with the way these big underdogs have been winning its jus too much for me not to.

All RDA has been doing is taking numbers and kicking ass. He's looked more then dominate lately.. He's beaten better strikers then Eddie Alvarez in his last 3 fights wins - Cowboy, Pettis and Nate Diaz.. I don't see how anyone can bet against RDA in this match up..

RDA is 31 years old and has won 5 straight fights now.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Rafael-dos-Anjos-11675

Thrilla · 06-26-16, 09:35 PM

JIBBBY · 06-26-16, 11:09 PM

Playing around with some WON'T go the distance props.. Thought to share. I think all these land..

Pending

6 Team Parlay
	Pending	7/7/16 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1004 Fight won’t go 5 round distance -250* vs Alvarez / Dos Anjos goes 5 round dist
	Pending	7/7/16 11:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1104 Fight won’t go 3 round distance -485* vs Lewis / Nelson goes 3 round distance
	Pending	7/9/16 11:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1204 Fight won’t go 5 round distance -280* vs Nunes / Tate goes 5 round distance
	Pending	7/9/16 8:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1704 Fight won’t go 3 round distance -215* vs Marin / Northcutt goes 3 round distance
	Pending	7/9/16 8:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1804 Fight won’t go 3 round distance -195* vs Miller / Gomi goes 3 round distance
	Pending	7/13/16 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1004 Fight won’t go 5 round distance -215* vs Chiesa / Ferguson goes 5 round distance

Nick Papageorgio · 06-27-16, 01:00 AM

Anyone else think the black beast can put on a striking exhibition similar to what JDS did to Roy? Obviously more so with his fists, JDS kicked the fukk out of Roy. That is unless Roy doesn't go to sleep. I see a dominate win for beast.

Thrilla · 06-27-16, 01:07 AM

Originally posted by Nick Papageorgio

Anyone else think the black beast can put on a striking exhibition similar to what JDS did to Roy? Obviously more so with his fists, JDS kicked the fukk out of Roy. That is unless Roy doesn't go to sleep. I see a dominate win for beast.

System Error

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/boxing-mma-ufc-betting/3273322-11102-roy-nelson-140-a.html

xagonzx · 06-27-16, 04:51 PM

Only 1 fights above welterweight on this card-- Lewis vs Nelson. A lot of lower weight division fights. Should be interesting.

Hugo de Naranja · 06-27-16, 07:50 PM

Thoughts on Jouban (+115)?

JIBBBY · 06-27-16, 07:59 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Thoughts on Jouban (+115)?

I'm taking my time capping these events since we still have 2 weeks to go.. This match up did catch my eye .. I don't know much about Muhommad other then he's undefeated at 9-0 and lit it up in Titan and this is his UFC debut... Stand up fighter for the most part..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Belal-Muhammad-108315

I know Jouban got his ass handed to him against Turmenov standing but rebounded well in last fight.. Jouban is a tough UFC veteran now and pretty solid.. As a dog though this seems like a good grab on paper..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Alan-Jouban-65878

Hugo de Naranja · 06-27-16, 08:47 PM

I typically fade guys debuting against solid veterans. Pretty much everybody signed in the UFC is undefeated in regional promotions. These odds seem like a bargain on Jouban

JIBBBY · 06-27-16, 09:18 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

I typically fade guys debuting against solid veterans. Pretty much everybody signed in the UFC is undefeated in regional promotions. These odds seem like a bargain on Jouban

Yep I have a rule never bet against an undefeated fighter with over 10 pro wins. Under 10 pro wins that rule doesn't apply if facing a legit veteran in the UFC.... I've tested this theory over the years and it usually holds true...

We saw that 0 go with Sage Northcut in a hurry once signed on and fighting in the UFC for example....

It's another level of competition fighting in Titan to now in the UFC that's for sure.. I need to look into his training camp and see who he is sparring and rolling around with first..

rsynweap84 · 06-27-16, 09:27 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Going big on RDA and ITD.. I think he cleans Eddie Alvarez standing, it starts with RDA's kicks..

I agree completely.

Alvarez even in his debut against Cerrone showed his one true advantage here was his technical striking ability which is indeed better than RDA's, but when you examine other characteristics?

His ground work against Melendez and Cowboy was unimpressive to say the least, an area RDA definitely holds the advantage. Alvarez showed good conditioning but was breathing very heavy in the Cerrone fight, the pace and body strikes he absorbed showed their effect on it. The only thing that makes that worse is the way RDA likes to kick low and fast to the body and the legs. I fully expect RDA will do just that. Alvarez could hurt RDA with a well timed spinning elbow or backfist, as I said his technical striking is very good, but RDA doesn't lag far behind here, and he will have the reach advantage. Combine that with his ground experience and conditioning demonstrated against Pettis and you have a tough match-up for Alvarez.

RDA wins this one.

Hugo de Naranja · 06-27-16, 09:55 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Yep I have a rule never bet against an undefeated fighter with over 10 pro wins. Under 10 pro wins that rule doesn't apply if facing a legit veteran in the UFC.... I've tested this theory over the years and it usually holds true...

We saw that 0 go with Sage Northcut in a hurry once signed on and fighting in the UFC for example....

It's another level of competition fighting in Titan to now in the UFC that's for sure.. I need to look into his training camp and see who he is sparring and rolling around with first..

Certainly not foolproof but I think it's a +EV rule of thumb

Thrilla · 06-28-16, 05:24 AM

JIBBBY · 06-30-16, 04:51 PM

I'm fading Mike Pyle in this event.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Mike-Pyle-4577

The dude is 40 years old, gets rocked and or dropped alot in recent fights, he has just 2 wins in his last 5 fights.. I think it's gonna be a tall order for him to beat this undefeated fighter in Alberto Mina at 12-0.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Alberto-Mina-16705

Odds are favorable at +100 for Mina right now.. I'm thinking it's a good idea to bet on Mina now before the odds get worse.... Alberto Mina hasn't fought the level of competition Mike Pyle has but he is 2 fights deep in the UFC and winning.. Mina did just beat Sexyama however in his last UFC win which is not easy to do..

Mike Pyle is an old man and nothing more then a journeyman at this point as his chin is deteriorating quickly with age IMO..

I'm also taking Mina ITD for a benny.. I'm thinking Mullet man gets dropped or maybe sub'd out in this fight after getting rocked at some point.. Alberto has only gone to decision once in 12 pro fights..

$250.00

Pending

7/7/16 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1401 Alberto Mina +100* vs Mike Pyle

$100.00

$201.00

Pending

7/7/16 10:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1405 Mina wins inside distance +201* vs Not Mina inside distance

No hedging with this scrap either for Jibs..

Hugo de Naranja · 06-30-16, 05:00 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

I'm fading Mike Pyle in this event.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Mike-Pyle-4577

The dude is 40 years old, gets rocked and or dropped alot in recent fights, he has just 2 wins in his last 5 fights.. I think it's gonna be a tall order for him to beat this undefeated fighter in Alberto Mina at 12-0.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Alberto-Mina-16705

Odds are favorable at +100 for Mina right now.. I'm thinking it's a good idea to bet on Mina now before the odds get worse.... Alberto Mina hasn't fought the level of competition as Mike Pyle has but he is 2 fights deep in the UFC and winning.. Mina did just beat Sexyama however in his last UFC win which is not easy to do..

Mike Pyle is an old man and nothing more then a journeyman at this point as his chin is deteriorating quickly with age IMO..

I'm also taking Mina ITD for a benny.. I'm thinking Mullet man gets dropped or maybe sub'd out in this fight after getting rocked at some point.. Alberto has only gone to decision once in 12 pro fights..

$250.00

Pending

7/7/16 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1401 Alberto Mina +100* vs Mike Pyle

$100.00

$201.00

Pending

7/7/16 10:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1405 Mina wins inside distance +201* vs Not Mina inside distance

No hedging with this scrap either for Jibs..

ITD at (+201) looks good. I like Mike Pyle but he gets finished a lot (9 out of 11) losses and mina has looked good in the UFC, albeit against lower-tier fighters. This should be a good test for him.

JIBBBY · 06-30-16, 05:15 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

ITD at (+201) looks good. I like Mike Pyle but he gets finished a lot (9 out of 11) losses and mina has looked good in the UFC, albeit against lower-tier fighters. This should be a good test for him.

Yep, I also like Mike Pyle as a person and a fighter but only on offense as he is well rounded. The biggest problem I see with Pyle is he just can't take shots on the chin anymore not that he ever could anyways.. He's reaction and timing is slowing I believe as it does with most fighters age 40 and over....

Besides that it's always hard to beat an undefeated fighter with 12 pro wins that has been fighting in the UFC for a couple of fights now..

Thrilla · 07-01-16, 08:14 AM

Starts @ 8:58 min. mark

JIBBBY · 07-01-16, 10:23 AM

UFC Fight Night 90 - Lightweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada


Thu 7/7	1501 Mehdi Baghdad	+145	o2½ -200
9:30PM	1502 John Makdessi	-165	u2½ +170

Thinking John Makdessi by KO.. Frenchman does have a reach advantage and is decent standing but John is a bull and has been in with much stiffer competition then the Frenchman Bhagdad.. 9 of John's wins have come by way of KO and 4 by decision..... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/John-Makdessi-37402

Bhagdad got rolled by Chris Wade in his UFC deput last fight. He's been stopped by strikes twice before http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Mehdi-Baghdad-41993

Makdessi really needs this win as well coming off 2 tough losses.. Chance this fight could go the distance but I'm not betting on that just because Baghdad has only gone to decision only once and lost in 15 pro fights...

The U2.5 at +170 is something worth considering I think as well..

ITD is out - I expect the KO prop to be maybe around +310 or so when that comes out.. I'm impatient and dropped a benny down already on ITD for starters at 3-1 odds with this fight... Madessi has some power in his hands.

$100.00

$292.00

Pending

7/7/16 9:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1509 Makdessi wins inside distance +292* vs Not Makdessi inside distance

HurlSweatPants · 07-02-16, 07:04 PM

I like the Makdeski inside the distance prop. Think he KOs Baghdad. I am still going to bet him with the juice unless it gets to -175 or higher, just to cover my ass in case it goes to the judges.

Hugo de Naranja · 07-02-16, 08:06 PM

Originally posted by HurlSweatPants

I like the Makdeski inside the distance prop. Think he KOs Baghdad. I am still going to bet him with the juice unless it gets to -175 or higher, just to cover my ass in case it goes to the judges.

He's down to -135 on 5Ds

HurlSweatPants · 07-02-16, 10:46 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

He's down to -135 on 5Ds

What up Hugo? Yeah I saw that, I've been jumping on it and have a parlay win included. I don't like the reach that Baghdad has, but I feel Makdessi can get inside and use some short range punches. We'll see, followed most of your picks last UFC and won some serious dough!

xagonzx · 07-03-16, 12:00 AM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

I'm fading Mike Pyle in this event.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Mike-Pyle-4577

The dude is 40 years old, gets rocked and or dropped alot in recent fights, he has just 2 wins in his last 5 fights.. I think it's gonna be a tall order for him to beat this undefeated fighter in Alberto Mina at 12-0.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Alberto-Mina-16705

Odds are favorable at +100 for Mina right now.. I'm thinking it's a good idea to bet on Mina now before the odds get worse.... Alberto Mina hasn't fought the level of competition Mike Pyle has but he is 2 fights deep in the UFC and winning.. Mina did just beat Sexyama however in his last UFC win which is not easy to do..

Mike Pyle is an old man and nothing more then a journeyman at this point as his chin is deteriorating quickly with age IMO..

I'm also taking Mina ITD for a benny.. I'm thinking Mullet man gets dropped or maybe sub'd out in this fight after getting rocked at some point.. Alberto has only gone to decision once in 12 pro fights..

$250.00

Pending

7/7/16 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1401 Alberto Mina +100* vs Mike Pyle

$100.00

$201.00

Pending

7/7/16 10:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1405 Mina wins inside distance +201* vs Not Mina inside distance

No hedging with this scrap either for Jibs..

His win over Sexyama was questionable, as it was a close split decision. He also got chewed up by leg kicks and gassed pretty bad. I think he needs some work with his striking still, he seems to just wing punches as hard as he can and hope one hits. He's got a blackbelt in judo and bjj, and I am leaning towards him as well though.

JIBBBY · 07-03-16, 12:06 AM

Originally posted by xagonzx

His win over Sexyama was questionable, as it was a close split decision. He also got chewed up by leg kicks and gassed pretty bad. I think he needs some work with his striking still, he seems to just wing punches as hard as he can and hope one hits. He's got a blackbelt in judo and bjj, and I am leaning towards him as well though.

Well Sexyama is a wrestling based grinder who will tax all fighters cardio with his style.. Pyle doesn't fight like Sexyama...

Pyle has very little head movement and haymakers he can get caught with.. Just look at the gif above, he takes those swinging hook shots on the chin by Jordan Mein and gets dropped..

xagonzx · 07-03-16, 12:15 AM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Well Sexyama is a wrestling based grinder who will tax all fighters cardio with his style.. Pyle doesn't fight like Sexyama...

Pyle has very little head movement and haymakers he can get caught with.. Just look at the gif above, he takes those swinging hook shots on the chin by Jordan Mein and gets dropped..

I agree, was just pointing some stuff out about him to keep an eye out. Although if i remember correctly there was practically no wrestling/grappling, besides Mina's gassed takedown attempts. He also made a mistake in the third round of not protecting himself when he thought sexyama was letting him up. I agree with you though, I think Mina can finish Pyle, and will likely be on that. Pyle was also talking about how he can'thang with the young athletes for much longer after his last fight earlier this year.

firekillex · 07-03-16, 01:04 AM

Makdessi may be the play of the night for this card, good odds as well..
baghdad didn't impress me at all in the tuf house in his 2 loses he didn't live up to expectations and hype around him, makdessi is a UFC vet he's been around for 5+ years now, he's had a couple tough fights lately ( losing to cerrone was rough but losing to him isn't nothing terrible ) he just lost a split to yancy meideros who's a beast standing up as well.... I think makdessi probably decisions him here but I'll probably just take him straight up at -135

Hugo de Naranja · 07-03-16, 02:46 AM

Originally posted by HurlSweatPants

What up Hugo? Yeah I saw that, I've been jumping on it and have a parlay win included. I don't like the reach that Baghdad has, but I feel Makdessi can get inside and use some short range punches. We'll see, followed most of your picks last UFC and won some serious dough!

Dope.

HurlSweatPants · 07-03-16, 11:12 AM

Anyone liking Beltran against Vieira? Like the EV at +135 and up.

HurlSweatPants · 07-03-16, 03:33 PM

The line is dropping on Makdessi big. Now at -115.

JIBBBY · 07-04-16, 02:24 AM

Originally posted by HurlSweatPants

Anyone liking Beltran against Vieira? Like the EV at +135 and up.

I'll get back to this post mid week.. Still capping this event and waiting for more info to come in..

Thor4140 · 07-04-16, 09:38 AM

Originally posted by Nick Papageorgio

Anyone else think the black beast can put on a striking exhibition similar to what JDS did to Roy? Obviously more so with his fists, JDS kicked the fukk out of Roy. That is unless Roy doesn't go to sleep. I see a dominate win for beast.

Please lets not compare the black beast to JDs lol