UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs. Thompson (June 18, 2016)

[Thrilla]

Covington C. - Meunier J.

Any value in under 2.5 rounds or no dist if we look at Meunier's 0%dec 7-0-0 record. Colby covington 8-1-0 (38%dec)
under 2.5 rounds currently @ +145 (5dimes)
no distance @ +115 (5dimes)

- Meunier UFC debutant and takes the fight on short notice!


Whats your take on this?

[Thrilla]

http://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/fighters/24602-joe-meunier

Meunier vs Yannis Jacquet

[mirinquads]

Covington sub +300.

[Thrilla]

Weigh-in

[Ultimatemeatball]

Saggo line dropped significantly.

[JIBBBY]

Covington sub +300.

Played it safer.. Just in case.. 25% of his wins have come by KO..

$100.00

$250.00

Pending

6/18/16 7:00pm MMA Props Fighting 2109 Covington wins inside distance +250* vs Not Covington inside distance

UFC Fight Pass Early Prelims



Colby
Covington
vs
Jonathan
Meunier
"The French Spider"

USA
Country
CANADA

8-1-0
Record
7-0-0

25%
KO/TKO
71%

38%
SUB
29%

38%
DEC
0%

71 in
Height
75 in

170 lbs
Weight
170 lbs

72 in
Reach
75 in

41 in
Leg Reach
0 in

[JIBBBY]

Covington C. - Meunier J.

Any value in under 2.5 rounds or no dist if we look at Meunier's 0%dec 7-0-0 record. Colby covington 8-1-0 (38%dec)
under 2.5 rounds currently @ +145 (5dimes)
no distance @ +115 (5dimes)

- Meunier UFC debutant and takes the fight on short notice!


Whats your take on this?

The U2.5 at +145 seems like a solid bet to me... I hit is as well for a benny..

[Thrilla]

Covington sub +300.

Meunier has a few choke hold wins in his MMA record. There is risk of Covington exposing his neck trying to take down Meunier who's height might be an advantage in takedown defence.
Though Meunier looked skinny @ weigh-ins compared to his shape in the fight video's posted. Short notice or perhaps weight cut could be the reason.

[JC2008]

Meunier is undefeated and fighting at home basically, as Montreal and Ottawa are about 2 hours apart, give-or-take... I could see him winning a decision, as well.

[JIBBBY]

Meunier is undefeated and fighting at home basically, as Montreal and Ottawa are about 2 hours apart, give-or-take... I could see him winning a decision, as well.

Going by the numbers JC..

Meurnier has never fought past the 2nd round, this is his UFC debut.. Gotta question the level of comp he's faced so far in the lessor organizations also..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jonathan-Meunier-146567

Also Colby has only gone to decision 1 time in 4 of his last UFC fights. He's fought some stiffer competition, and he just got choked out so I doubt he'll get choked out again in this rebound fight. Most fighters learn from their losses.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Colby-Covington-57269

Hey, but ya never know as anything is possible and does happen in the cage..

[JC2008]

Going by the numbers JC..

Meurnier has never fought past the 2nd round, this is his UFC debut.. Gotta question the level of comp he's faced so far in the lessor organizations also..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jonathan-Meunier-146567

Also Colby has only gone to decision 1 time in 4 of his last UFC fights. He's fought some stiffer competition, and he just got choked out so I doubt he'll get choked out again in this rebound fight. Most fighters learn from their losses.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Colby-Covington-57269

Hey, but ya never know as anything is possible and does happen in the cage..

Fair enough. Colvington parlayed with Cirkunov may be worth a look, as well as Cirkunov round 3 +1200.

[JIBBBY]

Anyone got a beat on this chick fight?

Only fight I didn't cap or bet on yet.. Thinking I was gonna take a pass but now I want to play it but am clueless.. Didn't watch vids and don't really know these chicks.. Did sherdog the fight and tried to go by the numbers but drew a blank.. Maybe fight goes the distance? Valerie by decision perhaps?

1403 Calderwood / Letourneau goes 3 rnd dist

-290

1411 Letourneau wins by 3 round decision

+118

125lb Catchweight Bout



Valerie
Letourneau
"Trouble"
vs
Joanne
Calderwood
"JoJo"

CANADA
Country
SCOTLAND

8-4-0
Record
10-1-0

50%
KO/TKO
40%

13%
SUB
0%

25%
DEC
60%

67 in
Height
66 in

125 lbs
Weight
125 lbs

68 in
Reach
65 in

37 in
Leg Reach
38 in

[MMA_Oracle]

Anyone got a beat on this chick fight?

Only fight I didn't cap or bet on yet.. Thinking I was gonna take a pass but now I want to play it but am clueless.. Didn't watch vids and don't really know these chicks.. Did sherdog the fight and tried to go by the numbers but drew a blank.. Maybe fight goes the distance? Valerie by decision perhaps?

1403 Calderwood / Letourneau goes 3 rnd dist

-290

1411 Letourneau wins by 3 round decision

+118

125lb Catchweight Bout



Valerie
Letourneau
"Trouble"
vs
Joanne
Calderwood
"JoJo"

CANADA
Country
SCOTLAND

8-4-0
Record
10-1-0

50%
KO/TKO
40%

13%
SUB
0%

25%
DEC
60%

67 in
Height
66 in

125 lbs
Weight
125 lbs

68 in
Reach
65 in

37 in
Leg Reach
38 in

Calderwood isnt very good. Valerie has a decent chance to knock her out, though, so i'd be a bit weary of the decision prop

[firekillex]

what ive learned from womens mma is to bet on the underdog everytime and be profitable haha

[Hugo de Naranja]

Fair enough. Colvington parlayed with Cirkunov may be worth a look, as well as Cirkunov round 3 +1200.

Gotta fade the guys making their debut until they prove they can handle UFC level competition.

[blumpkin]

I love Letourneua here at 125. Making 115 is so hard for her to make. She was respectable in her loss to JJ. Her other losses were to top competition in Claudia, Sarah Mac and one other. Jojo is very hittable and Valerie should control the fight.

[Thrilla]

The U2.5 at +145 seems like a solid bet to me... I hit is as well for a benny..

no suprise here everytime I run down a under in the thread you seem to already have a bet on it. lol

GL to us.

[JIBBBY]

no suprise here everytime I run down a under in the thread you seem to already have a bet on it. lol

GL to us.

Well I guess that is a good thing.. The numbers leaned to that being a very good bet for the odds, and you get all the props on that call.. All good Thrilla, let's just hope it hits!!

$100.00

$145.00

Pending

6/18/16 7:00pm UFC Fighting 2101 Jonathan Meunier/Colby Covington Under 2½ +145*

[JC2008]

Gotta fade the guys making their debut until they prove they can handle UFC level competition.

Not necessarily... Look at Josh Emmett vs. John Tuck last month, in Emmett's debut. I do agree in this instance though that Colvington should win.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Not necessarily... Look at Josh Emmett vs. John Tuck last month, in Emmett's debut. I do agree in this instance though that Colvington should win.

I think that taking guys with UFC experience against guys without especially at about even or plus odds (see Graves v. Brown or Harris v. East) is a positive EV strategy. Here the might not be as much value but I think Covington will get the win.

[JC2008]

I think that taking guys with UFC experience against guys without especially at about even or plus odds (see Graves v. Brown or Harris v. East) is a positive EV strategy. Here the might not be as much value but I think Covington will get the win.

Well he dropped from -275 to -250 on bet365 which means the KO/TKO/DQ prop is at +200, I may be looking into that one for sure.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Picks for Tonight:
Bagautinov Unanimous Decision
Covington Rd 2 Submission
Markos Split Decision
Theodorou Unanimous Decision
Beal Unanimous Decision
Jotko Unanimous Decision
Cirkunov Rd 2 Submission
Saggo Rd 1 TKO
Calderwood Unanimous Decision
Aubin-Mercier Rd 1 Submission
Bosse Rd 1 KO
Cerrone Split Decision
Thompson Rd 3 TKO

[JIBBBY]

This is looking like a favorite heavy card. Not seeing alot of dogs landing with this card like other past cards.. We see????

Rory Mac is now the odds on favorite.. Wonderboy at +odds.. I don't really call that a dog hit though if Wonderboy wins at +105..

[JIBBBY]

Gotta fade the guys making their debut until they prove they can handle UFC level competition.

A very good philosophy!!

[Thrilla]

Elias Theodorou is so handsome. What a beautiful man.

[JIBBBY]

Elias Theodorou is so handsome. What a beautiful man.

Gingers need love too



Elias
Theodorou
"The Spartan"
vs
Sam
Alvey
"Smile'N"

CANADA
Country
USA

12-1-0
Record
26-7-0, 1NC

55%
KO/TKO
68%

9%
SUB
8%

36%
DEC
28%

73 in
Height
74 in

185 lbs
Weight
185 lbs

75 in
Reach
75 in

40 in
Leg Reach
42 in

[lokihayze]

yup, another reason i was high on rory .. good eye

Thanks man. Weidman is also married to wonderboys sister and during his camp for rockhold (before he got hurt) he was away from home which means away from his wife AND wonderboy. So potentially he hasn't been training with wonderboys much over the past 3 months.
Even 2-3 months can make a huge difference as look as Nate Diaz fighting Johnson and then shortly after fighting Conor. He even said it himself 'with a camp
I wouldn't have been hit'.
So... It's a legit concern. Not like he hasn't been out of wonderboys training for so little time that it wouldn't matter (a week or 2)
Tried to tell a couple of blokes this and they think it won't matter. We will see

[lokihayze]

mentally, i think Rory has more weight on his shoulders, expecting a lil girl in a couple weeks, hasnt faught in a year, Bellator is just waiting to throw a big number at him, wonderboy has his sights on the belt, gonna be a great fight, i really dig both these guys

Not to be a prick but Rory isn't an emotional guy. People even say he reminds them of a serial killer. I think he's got Aspergers or something similar which is why he's such an amazing fighter, they usually are incredibly clever and focus on 1 or 2 things and obsess on it.
They're just socially awkward really.
Don't show emotions etc. when is Rory ever emotional? He will just lock it away in the back of his mind that he has to provide for a kid now, won't really hit him emotionally like having a kid would hit Weidman or bisping.
He doesn't get all emotional. Watch him talk after fights etc you'll see. I wouldn't put too much stock in him being affected by it.

[HurlSweatPants]

Lets get it Hugo!

[JC2008]

If anything, a kid on the way would be motivating.

[Ty$]

This is looking like a favorite heavy card. Not seeing alot of dogs landing with this card like other past cards.. We see????

Rory Mac is now the odds on favorite.. Wonderboy at +odds.. I don't really call that a dog hit though if Wonderboy wins at +105..

How many cards have you thought the faves would dominate? This shit is 50/50 it's fighting... Don't be Scared Homies ... Play the dogs and win big!

[BIGDAY]

It's FIGHT NIGHT!!

[Heyeverybody99]

It's FIGHT NIGHT!!

[JIBBBY]

GAME TIME!!!! Let's do this boys!!!

Taking the early dog in this first fight.. Should be a tightly contested fight one way or the other so at those +235 I had to try it.. Russian is tough as nails though...



Ali
Bagautinov
"Puncher"
vs
Geane
Herrera
"The Revolutionary"

RUSSIA
Country
USA

13-4-0
Record
9-1-0

38%
KO/TKO
22%

31%
SUB
56%

31%
DEC
22%

64 in
Height
65 in

125 lbs
Weight
125 lbs

65 in
Reach
66 in

36 in
Leg Reach
36 in

[Heyeverybody99]

Cote +135 to the promise land.

Cote in round 1 +900

Letourneau -150

Saggo -115

Come at me bros