Bjpenn85 knows his UFC 199

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

1 unit on Dustin Poirier by decision @ 2.62 to win - 1,6 units

Close fight, none of them will likely finish the other so fight should go the distance. I think the difference in this fight will be Dustins will to win, and late development. Dustins level of confidence is very high and i think that although Bobby Green is very good he is a bit to inactive and one dimensional. I dont think Poirier will take down Green, at least not consistently because greens tdd. Greens speed and athletecism is two good reasons why Green has been so successful standing up where he is most comfortable. I think beating Poirier is a difficult task especially after almost 2 years outside the cage. Lately,Poirier has showed nothing but improvement standing up and an iron will to win, so hopefully this fight wont end in a late stoppage for poirier, but go all three rounds.

I will add that poiriers tendency to get clipped is still present, its i will say the one weakness poirier still hasnt get rid of despite getting blasted by mcregor. You should believe that fight was a wake up call, and that he would make the necessary improvements, but no. Poirier was clipped several time in his last fight against duffy, so the potential for a disaster KO is there, but hopefully it is pretty small.







Result: +7,85 units / 785 dollar
Results since 7th. may 2016: +20.25 units/ 2025 dollars

[Hugo de Naranja]

Adding:

1 unit on Dustin Poirier @ 2.62 - 2,6 units

Close fight, none of them will likely finish the other so fight should go the distance. I think the difference in this fight will be Dustins will to win, and late development. Dustins level of confidence is very high and i think that although Bobby Green is very good he is a bit to inactive and one dimensional. I dont think Poirier will take down Green, at least not consistently because greens tdd. Greens speed and athletecism is two good reasons why Green has been so successful standing up where he is most comfortable. I think beating Poirier is a difficult task especially after almost 2 years outside the cage. Lately,Poirier has showed nothing but improvement standing up and an iron will to win, so hopefully this fight wont end in a late stoppage for poirier, but go all three rounds.

I will add that poiriers tendency to get clipped is still present, its i will say the one weakness poirier still hasnt get rid of despite getting blasted by mcregor. You should believe that fight was a wake up call, and that he would make the necessary improvements, but no. Poirier was clipped several time in his last fight against duffy, so the potential for a disaster KO is there, but hopefully it is pretty small.







Result: +7,85 units / 785 dollar
Results since 7th. may 2016: +20.25 units/ 2025 dollars

Is this a bet on Porier Decision or Porier straight?

[bjpenn85]

Is this a bet on Porier Decision or Porier straight?

Yeah. Sorry mate.

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

6.5 units on T-city @ 1.40 to win - 2,5 units


Lets call a spade a spade. Its a reason why the gracies call him T-City.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Yeah. Sorry mate.

I like this one, jumped on it myself yesterday at +170. Not much value in Porier straight at -220 since Bobby Green is a tough out and Porier I don't see either getting a finish. Won't be huge on this one because Porier could win via late finish and Green could definitely outpoint him.

[bjpenn85]

Yeah, its not a lock at all. Its more a gut feeling than a solid bet.

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

5 units on T-City @ 1.40 to win - 2 units

[Hugo de Naranja]

Adding:

5 units on T-City @ 1.40 to win - 2 units

Can you tell me a bit more about why you like Ortega here? I don't know a whole lot about him.

[firekillex]

Can you tell me a bit more about why you like Ortega here? I don't know a whole lot about him.

clay guidas only weapon is a takedown, brian ortegas best weapon is his triangle / submissions aka this is a matchup to get his name value up
young guy , beat the bigger name thats old and hasnt shown much improvement looks like a tailor made match in my eyes but you never know in mma

[Hugo de Naranja]

clay guidas only weapon is a takedown, brian ortegas best weapon is his triangle / submissions aka this is a matchup to get his name value up
young guy , beat the bigger name thats old and hasnt shown much improvement looks like a tailor made match in my eyes but you never know in mma

Looks like Guida's last 2 losses are via sub

[bjpenn85]

Can you tell me a bit more about why you like Ortega here? I don't know a whole lot about him.

Brian Ortega is primarily an improving bjj specialist. He still is a bit of a flawed fighter in terms of getting hit way too much, although having ufc best chin at the moment. He may be a bit inactive at times and possesses a lot of you can take me down but i dont care - attitude.The only way he loses this fight is if clay guida can hold him down without getting submitted.

This is more ore less the same matchup as Guida had with with Dennis Bermudez, but with Ortega having less mma experience and less pressure/standup skills. Upside with ortega is that he is way better than Bermudez on the ground the only place guida wants to take it. Guida is less fakked stylistically here then with Bermudez, so the line is quite precise. Guida can stand and bang and probably have a decent shot but ultimately Guida are prone to make mistakes and thats where T-city probably will find a hole. Ortega do also has an iron will and does never stops fighting. Thats why he won against Brandao, Ronaldi, and Thiago Tavares in last and third round. Hes a talent under construction, so the bet is def not free for risk, the line is expensive so one should be a bit cautious here.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Brian Ortega is primarily an improving bjj specialist. He still is a bit of a flawed fighter in terms of getting hit way too much, although having ufc best chin at the moment. He may be a bit inactive at times and possesses a lot of you can take me down but i dont care - attitude.The only way he loses this fight is if clay guida can hold him down without getting submitted.

This is more ore less the same matchup as Guida had with with Dennis Bermudez, but with Ortega having less mma experience and less pressure/standup skills. Upside with ortega is that he is way better than Bermudez on the ground the only place guida wants to take it. Guida is less fakked stylistically here then with Bermudez, so the line is quite precise. Guida can stand and bang and probably have a decent shot but ultimately Guida are prone to make mistakes and thats where T-city probably will find a hole. Ortega do also has an iron will and does never stops fighting. Thats why he won against Brandao, Ronaldi, and Thiago Tavares in last and third round. Hes a talent under construction, so the bet is def not free for risk, the line is expensive so one should be a bit cautious here.

Alright good to know, thanks. May also be worth a small bet on third round finish if he tends to get them.

[bjpenn85]

Alright good to know, thanks. May also be worth a small bet on third round finish if he tends to get them.

It may be. At the same time, you cant win by 3.round sub in every fight. Its got to stop some time.If the price is right i might take a stab.

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

3.5 units on Hector Lombard, Cruz, Rockhold inside dist @1.80 to win - 2.8 units

[bjpenn85]

Adding

2.5 units on Dominick Cruz unanimous dec @ 1.95 to win - 2,38 units

[bjpenn85]

So far:

UFC 199

11.5 units on T-City aka Bryan Ortega @ 1.40 to win - 4,5 units
3.5 units on Hector Lombard, Cruz, Rockhold inside dist @1.80 to win - 2.8 units
2.5 units on Dominick Cruz unanimous dec @ 1.95 to win - 2,38 units
1 unit on Dust Poirier dec @ 2.62 to win - 1.62 units

[CaptChaos145]

I like Bisping to survive round 1 at -150.

[bjpenn85]

I like Bisping to survive round 1 at -150.

Its 1 round and 2min and 30 sec. I have also thought about this bet.

[bjpenn85]

1 unit equals 100 dollars.

[CaptChaos145]

Its 1 round and 2min and 30 sec. I have also thought about this bet.

5Dimes has:

over 1 1/2 at +105
Starts round 2 at -146 (was -150)

[bjpenn85]

5Dimes has:

over 1 1/2 at +105
Starts round 2 at -146 (was -150)

Thats a good bet right there i think. Bisping isnt that bad. He can easily survive one round. Bisping has heart. He wont give up without a fight. I think it takes a bit longer than one round.

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

3.5 units on Cole Miller @ 1.53 to win - 1.8 units
2.5 units on Poirier / Green over 2.5 rounds @ 1.57 to win - 1.4 units

[bjpenn85]

adding:

1,5 units on Cole Miller @ 1.53 to win - 0,75 units

[firekillex]

reasoning for being so high on cole miller here?

[bjpenn85]

So far:

UFC 199

11.5 units on T-City aka Bryan Ortega @ 1.40 to win - 4,5 units
5 units on Cole Miller @ 1.53 units to win - 2.5 units
3.5 units on Hector Lombard, Cruz, Rockhold inside dist @1.80 to win - 2.8 units
2.5 units on Dominick Cruz unanimous dec @ 1.95 to win - 2,38 units
2,5 units on Poirier/ Green to go over 2.5 rounds @ 1.57 - 1.4 units
1 unit on Dust Poirier dec @ 2.62 to win - 1.62 units

[JIBBBY]

1 unit equals 100 dollars.

BJ you're a high roller, impressive!!!!

Good luck with this event bud.. I'm liking some of your plays.. I'm on Cole Miller as well..

[firekillex]

i put cole miller in a big parlay for fun but i dont see to much value at -180 for cole miller though straight up bet

-180 means he would have to win 65% of the time, i see this being a fairly even fight tbh, cole millers last win was in 2014, guy seems to be always injured. Both guys arent to great i could definitely see miller tapping bruce leeroy out hence why i put him in my little parlay but i dont see him being one of the biggest bets of the night. BOL though

the more i look at it the more im on porier as my bet of the night

[bjpenn85]

i put cole miller in a big parlay for fun but i dont see to much value at -180 for cole miller though straight up bet

-180 means he would have to win 65% of the time, i see this being a fairly even fight tbh, cole millers last win was in 2014, guy seems to be always injured. Both guys arent to great i could definitely see miller tapping bruce leeroy out hence why i put him in my little parlay but i dont see him being one of the biggest bets of the night. BOL though

the more i look at it the more im on porier as my bet of the night

Problem with Green is that he doesnt pose any offence. He stalks but doesnt hit. Everything in terms of defence, kicks, tdd, boxing technique, he has all that cleared. But functionally, he doesnt outstrike people. Or KO people. So then youre left with a guy that probably are to inactive to win a decision and a fighter without the stats/ability to KO poirier. That mens poirier going to win by being the more active fighter, but i dont see it is a likely outcome that either guy gets a finish. So give me poirier and that decision prop all day.

[firekillex]

yep took porier by decision and thinking about putting my larger bet of the night on him straight up
just watched the staredowns today looks like they have some beef together so im hoping they dont come out swinging for the fences and get a knockout, bobby green has his whole head tattooed now so you definitely know theres something wrong with this guy mentally , guy hasnt even fought for 2 years and porier has been building a ton of momentum to everything looks bad for green which sucks because guy couldve been a top 5 talent in lightweight if he stuck to it

[Ty$]

yep took porier by decision and thinking about putting my larger bet of the night on him straight up
just watched the staredowns today looks like they have some beef together so im hoping they dont come out swinging for the fences and get a knockout, bobby green has his whole head tattooed now so you definitely know theres something wrong with this guy mentally , guy hasnt even fought for 2 years and porier has been building a ton of momentum to everything looks bad for green which sucks because guy couldve been a top 5 talent in lightweight if he stuck to it

Say what you want my $ is on Green...

[firekillex]

all good its mma bobby green could come out and knock porier out cold who knows right
gonna be an exciting fight im more pumped to watch it as a fan tbh

[bjpenn85]

BJ you're a high roller, impressive!!!!

Good luck with this event bud.. I'm liking some of your plays.. I'm on Cole Miller as well..

Thanks bud. Im feel very confident that most will hit, but you never know.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Best of luck BJ. Tailing you on a few of these.

[bjpenn85]

Best of luck BJ. Tailing you on a few of these.

[siefer]

Good luck bud, I feel similar about pretty much all your bets.