UFC 198: Werdum vs. Miocic (May 14, 2016)

[JIBBBY]

^^ Those cyborg odds at -1700 are way to high to touch even in a parlay, what's the point? To win an extra few pennies.. Not worth it...

If anything take the under in a parlay...

UFC 198 - Catchweight 3 rounds - Arena da Baixada - Curitiba, Brazil - PPV
Sat 5/14		1301 Leslie Smith		+1100	o1½ +205
10:30PM		1302 Cris Justino		-1700	u1½ -245

Even Cyborg ITD odds are too stiff to mess with IMO...

1309 Justino wins inside distance

-810

KO prop is stiff odds too but maybe workable in a parlay...

Sat 5/14

1333 Justino wins by TKO/KO

-370

[CaptChaos145]

Here we go again.. Anderson Silva just dodged a bullet IMO...

THAT SUCKS THOUGH!! I loaded up on Hall too

$400.00

$400.00

Pending

5/14/16 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1201 Uriah Hall +100* <small>vs</small> Anderson Silva

So I have Hall in a few parlays on 5D. They won't cancel the best completely right? Last time this happened they just withdrew that particular fight from the Parlay.

I have a few small 8-10 team parlays stretching out over several cards. I hope they don't cancel the whole bet.

Thoughts JIB?

[JIBBBY]

So I have Hall in a few parlays on 5D. They won't cancel the best completely right? Last time this happened they just withdrew that particular fight from the Parlay.

I have a few small 8-10 team parlays stretching out over several cards. I hope they don't cancel the whole bet.

Thoughts JIB?

The one fight bet is cancelled in the parlay only. The parlay itself is never cancelled because one fight is scratched... I'd prefer the books to cancel the entire parlay and refund the wager but they don't..

$50.00	$254.60	Pending	2 Team Parlay
				Pending	5/14/16 11:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1109 Souza wins inside distance -178* vs Not Souza inside distance
				Cancelled	5/14/16 11:00pm MMA Props Fighting 9999 Hall wins inside distance +290* vs Not Hall inside distance

[Hugo de Naranja]

^^ Those cyborg odds at -1700 are way to high to touch even in a parlay, what's the point? To win an extra few pennies.. Not worth it...

If anything take the under in a parlay...

UFC 198 - Catchweight 3 rounds - Arena da Baixada - Curitiba, Brazil - PPV
Sat 5/14		1301 Leslie Smith		+1100	o1½ +205
10:30PM		1302 Cris Justino		-1700	u1½ -245

Even Cyborg ITD odds are too stiff to mess with IMO...

1309 Justino wins inside distance

-810

KO prop is stiff odds too but maybe workable in a parlay...

Sat 5/14

1333 Justino wins by TKO/KO

-370

Given that it's her UFC debut and first time (at least that I know of) fighting at 140, I'm not sure how people can lay -1700 on the ML or -810 on ITD. Yes she will probably win but that's super juiced.

[JIBBBY]

Given that it's her UFC debut and first time (at least that I know of) fighting at 140, I'm not sure how people can lay -1700 on the ML or -810 on ITD. Yes she will probably win but that's super juiced.

Yep..

Hey are you the same Hugo that posts on Mmabettingtips forum? Just curious. Always liked the Hugo posts on that forum when I find the time to read in... https://mmabettingtips.com/forums/to...miocic-werdum/

[Hugo de Naranja]

Yep..

Hey are you the same Hugo that posts on Mmabettingtips forum? Just curious. Always liked the Hugo posts on that forum when I find the time to read in... https://mmabettingtips.com/forums/to...miocic-werdum/

Nah that's somebody else

[Hugo de Naranja]

He also got the best of Hunt which is very hard to do.

Werdum took some huge shots in that fight and didn't get KO'ed, which is impressive because Hunt hits like a semi truck. He also came from behind to win after making some important in-fight adjustments.

[bjpenn85]

The fake takedown, then flying knee was such an in-fight-adjustment or a fake that was no lucky knee. Its was well setup and well timed after losing the first round. Some critize Stipe for looking exactly the same through out a fight. I believe either Werdums ability to make adjustments or a sub will be what saves the day for Werdum.

[CaptChaos145]

I was watching the UFC Coutdown show and they showed Stipe doing arm bars while in full guard. IMO that's a waste of training and energy. The only thing he should be working in if gets taken down is getting back to his feet.
Werdum is special in the ground. He's an Uber talented BJJ practitioner.

[Ultimatemeatball]

Werdum has multiple paths to victory vs miocic's one. Werdum has the belt. He's fighting on his home turf in front of 45,000 rabid fans. Line should be -225. Opening oddsmakers got it right. This is a gift. Miocic only has a punchers chance. Werdum will not be out-worked.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Werdum has multiple paths to victory vs miocic's one. Werdum has the belt. He's fighting on his home turf in front of 45,000 rapid fans. Line should be -225. Opening oddsmakers got it right. This is a gift. Miocic only has a punchers chance. Werdum will not be out-worked.

Could not agree more. I had Werdum capped at -250 so I'm glad the line moved this way

[JC2008]

Whittaker and Hall fought each other recently.

I know that. That's why the last sentence I said was, "too bad Whittaker just fought because that would have been a swell rematch."

[eligibletackle]

Like Stipe here. Werdum's win streak has been impressive, he boasts elite BJJ and demonstrates improves striking so can't blame some of you. Werdum's been outperforming his natural abilities and isn't one to steamroll an elite HW. Stipe is exactly what I to bet on against Werdum, the guy with a large advantage in athleticism and is disciplined enough to stick with a gameplan that won't win him any fans. Stipe take it on the cards as he avoids putting himself in precarious positions and outpoints the plodding Werdum.

[Mxs1332]

Like Stipe here. Werdum's win streak has been impressive, he boasts elite BJJ and demonstrates improves striking so can't blame some of you. Werdum's been outperforming his natural abilities and isn't one to steamroll an elite HW. Stipe is exactly what I to bet on against Werdum, the guy with a large advantage in athleticism and is disciplined enough to stick with a gameplan that won't win him any fans. Stipe take it on the cards as he avoids putting himself in precarious positions and outpoints the plodding Werdum.

If it goes to the scorecards best believe the judges will fk it up and auto pick hometown Werdum

[Deceptakhan]

Being the champ, and in Brazil, has to help

[Killer_Demo]

If it goes to the scorecards best believe the judges will fk it up and auto pick hometown Werdum

Exactly. Home cooking judging will be in full effect this weekend

[eligibletackle]

Nahhh. Werdum will have athe fans and but he isn't t isn't the type to throw leather with enough output where crowd roars over shots that miss the opponent but influence judges.

I think a lot of int'l judges have the "Troy Aikman Announcer bias". In an attempt to show how fair & biased he is as for Fox's A-team color commentary, he ends up sh*ting all over Dallas when he has to cover their game. It was the sole British judge who scored it for Hamill in the UK against Bisping - some forget.

[bjpenn85]

Nahhh. Werdum will have athe fans and but he isn't t isn't the type to throw leather with enough output where crowd roars over shots that miss the opponent but influence judges.

I think a lot of int'l judges have the "Troy Aikman Announcer bias". In an attempt to show how fair & biased he is as for Fox's A-team color commentary, he ends up sh*ting all over Dallas when he has to cover their game. It was the sole British judge who scored it for Hamill in the UK against Bisping - some forget.

Well you have some card where the mma judges go the other way, or just out of randomness, but in general the rule is that the judges are very very biased. Last event in Brazil made me realise how bad it is. 40.000 people wearing werdum masks, wonder who the judges give the decision to? Werdum vs Stipe will typically be a close one, 3 rounds to the winner and 2 rounds to the loser, gz wonder who the brazilian judges gives that decision to? Stipe needs to steamroll werdum 4 rounds to 1, but that aint happen.

There so many mma judges who had scored the anderson silva vs bisping a split decision. Michael Bispings bloody face won an unanimous dec after he was flattened in the third round in England...just prepare for some reaaaaal home cooking this weekend.

[yisman]

http://mmajunkie.com/2016/05/uriah-hall-pulled-from-ufc-198-lineup-following-anderson-silvas-surgery

CURITIBA, Brazil – With limited time and too many logistical issues, Uriah Hall will no longer fight at Saturday’s UFC 198 event.
With opponent Anderson Silva (33-7 MMA, 16-3 UFC) forced off the card and then undergoing successful gallbladder surgery, the middleweight matchup has been scrapped, and Hall (12-6 MMA, 5-4 UFC) will no longer fight at the event.
UFC officials in Brazil confirmed the scrapped bout with MMAjunkie.
UFC 198 takes place at Arena da Baixada in Curitiba, Parana, Brazil. Hall vs. Silva was slated for the pay-per-view main card, which follows prelims on FOX Sports 1 and UFC Fight Pass.
Officials haven’t announced which prelim will be promoted to the main card to fill the open slot.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Does anyone like John Lineker at -150?

[JIBBBY]

Does anyone like John Lineker at -150?

Yep, took him ITD at +100..

Lineker is giving up some reach and height but the dude has a granite chin and hits like a truck.. He can knock ya out or submit ya as well.. I've enjoyed betting on JL lately and at decent odds and it's been paying off.. No reason not to bet on him again in this match up as I see it... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/John-Lineker-41906

[Hugo de Naranja]

Yep, took him ITD at +100..

Lineker is giving up some reach and height but the dude has a granite chin and hits like a truck.. He can knock ya out or submit ya as well.. I've enjoyed betting on JL lately and at decent odds and it's been paying off.. No reason not to bet on him again in this match up as I see it... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/John-Lineker-41906

Font has a good record but he hasn't really fought anyone notable. I'm thinking of just going with the straight play here. Lineker will probably get the finish but I think this goes to decision enough that the straight play is worth the extra juice.

[JIBBBY]

Font has a good record but he hasn't really fought anyone notable. I'm thinking of just going with the straight play here. Lineker will probably get the finish but I think this goes to decision enough that the straight play is worth the extra juice.

Certainly the safer play betting JL straight at -150, can't argue that.. GL!!!

My thinking is - JL is Brazilian and this fight is in Brazil so you gotta think he'll be jacked up and going after the finish to please the fans and crowd in his home Country..

He's facing a guy in Rob Font that doesn't mind standing and punching it out at times.. John Lineker shines when he is exchanging blows in the pocket.. I think he catches Font in one of those exchanges on the chin or to the body and drops him, maybe pounds him out or subs him out on the ground after that..

Rob Font tries lunging forward and exchanging like did against Roop in this GIF he'll meet the canvas.. JL is typically willing to take one to give one..



I'm going with my gut prop feeling in this one and trying ITD at +100... JL has finished 5 of his last 6 wins ITD..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/John-Lineker-41906

[Hugo de Naranja]

Certainly the safer play betting JL straight at -150, can't argue that.. GL!!!

My thinking is - JL is Brazilian and this fight is in Brazil so you gotta think he'll be jacked up and going after the finish to please the fans and crowd in his home Country..

He's facing a guy in Rob Font that doesn't mind standing and punching it out at times.. John Lineker shines when he is exchanging blows in the pocket.. I think he catches Font in one of those exchanges on the chin or to the body and drops him, maybe pounds him out or subs him out on the ground after that..

Rob Font tries lunging forward and exchanging like did against Roop in this GIF he'll meet the canvas.. JL is typically willing to take one to give one..



I'm going with my gut prop feeling in this one and trying ITD at +100... JL has finished 5 of his last 6 wins ITD..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/John-Lineker-41906

I like this logic. Hopefully we both cash!

[UncleChael]

Werdum has multiple paths to victory vs miocic's one. Werdum has the belt. He's fighting on his home turf in front of 45,000 rabid fans. Line should be -225. Opening oddsmakers got it right. This is a gift. Miocic only has a punchers chance. Werdum will not be out-worked.

Remind me again how the 45,000 fans helped with Gus against Rumble in Sweden. I'll be on Stipe this weekend!

[JIBBBY]

^^Unc I'm with you on Stipe but not confident at all.. Werdum has been on fire lately and this fight is in Brazil... One take down it could be game over SM.

If I'm gonna gamble though I'm going with the +odds - Stipe by KO at +295 for me.. I'll gamble fock it.. Since it's a 5 rounder I'm guessing it doesn't go to decision one way or the other..

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Still trying to figure out how to bet this Cyborg fight..

Cyborg has alot of 1st round finishes lately, she typically comes out swinging and hits like man.. She kinda looks like a man too ... So the best bet for odds with a Cyborg play is the 1st round finish..

With that being said - I can't believe the 1st round finish is at -200..

1221 Justino wins in round 1

-200

Cyborg is simply heavily favored in all angles when trying to bet this fight..

[Hugo de Naranja]

^^Unc I'm with you on Stipe but not confident at all.. Werdum has been on fire lately and this fight is in Brazil... One take down it could be game over SM.

If I'm gonna gamble though I'm going with the +odds - Stipe by KO at +295 for me.. I'll gamble fock it.. Since it's a 5 rounder I'm guessing it doesn't go to decision one way or the other..

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Still trying to figure out how to bet this Cyborg fight..

Cyborg has alot of 1st round finishes lately, she typically comes out swinging and hits like man.. She kinda looks like a man too ... So the best bet for odds with a Cyborg play is the 1st round finish..

With that being said - I can't believe the 1st round finish is at -200..

1221 Justino wins in round 1

-200

Cyborg is simply heavily favored in all angles when trying to bet this fight..

Jibby, it's going to be tough finding value anywhere on Cyborg in this fight. I think if Smith can make it out of the first, she has a decent chance at getting a late finish if Cyborg gasses. Remember that Justino already has a brutal cut down to 145, and she now has to cut ANOTHER 5 pounds for the first time. This is a showcase matchup for her, one she should win but besides maybe Gina Carano and Marloes Coenen, I think most of Cyborg's resume is second-tier competition. With this in mind, you might consider small plays on any of the following props:
Smith Round 2 (+3400)
Smith Round 3 (+4300)
Smith Decision (+1850)
If not, this might be a good fight to stay away from since there is pretty much 0 value on any Cyborg play. I mean Cyborg KO/TKO is (-485) right now. Really?

[JIBBBY]

^^ I thought about trying to hit the grand slam fade Cyborg, maybe Leslie by decision and or late round finish bets like you suggest.. Just can't stomach a fade play here..

I simply don't think Cyborg loses in her UFC debut in Brazil.. I think that's probably money down the drain if you bet against Cyborg in this fight, weight cut or not....

I think Leslie Smith gets rolled in this fight early on.. Cyborg is gonna blitz her..

[GunShard]

I see Cyborg in the same category of strikers as Anderson Silva and Jose Aldo.

[Ultimatemeatball]

I'm waiting for the Cummins line to drop under -180 before pouncing. It appears to be headed in the opposite direction right now.

[Ultimatemeatball]

Remind me again how the 45,000 fans helped with Gus against Rumble in Sweden. I'll be on Stipe this weekend!

That's a great point, Uncle Chael.

[Mxs1332]

I'm waiting to pull the trigger on a majority of these fights after the weigh in. Specifically the Brazilians on the card

[Rich Benjamins]

Shogun is a can. This will be an easy fight for Anderson. Anderson is a careful fighter and wont' make the mistake of getting clocked by Shogun. Anderson is more athletic, and is better than Shogun in just about every department.

[JIBBBY]

Shogun is a can. This will be an easy fight for Anderson. Anderson is a careful fighter and wont' make the mistake of getting clocked by Shogun. Anderson is more athletic, and is better than Shogun in just about every department.

Cory is the younger up and coming fighter, has a granite chin, a grinder of sorts and is black.. .. Most importantly is he can go to his wrestling if all else fails.. Doubt Cory gets sub'd out from the top position by a gassed out Shogun..

Shogun has the crowd, his striking and experience.. Is that enough to pull off the upset win we will see???? Hard to call a legend a can at age 34 and fighting in home Country of Brazil..

Odds are tempting I can't lie on that KO and ITD props - Gotta think Shogun isn't gonna out work the younger fighter to a decision win, it's KO, SUB or bust.....

1305 Rua wins inside distance

+362

1329 Rua wins by TKO/KO

+470

The smart bet IMO -

1311 Anderson wins by 3 round decision

-108

[CaptChaos145]

Shogun is a can. This will be an easy fight for Anderson. Anderson is a careful fighter and wont' make the mistake of getting clocked by Shogun. Anderson is more athletic, and is better than Shogun in just about every department.

Andersonbis not better than Shigun everywhere but we don't know where Shigun is at these days. I'm staying away from the fight. Too many other fights to bet on. Betting on this 1 is guessing IMO.