Bjpenn85 knows his shit (im back thread)

**bjpenn85** · 04-25-16, 03:55 PM

Adding:

6 units on Alistair Overeem @ -200 to win- 3 units

Rationale:

New overeem, started in the Roy Nelson figtht. Better movement. A lot bigger arsenal of strikes. Front kick, high kicks, hooks, straight punches in combination with shifting of stances and a lot of circling, always away fromt he opponents power hand. New Overeem appears to keep his hands up and let people tie off instead of folding. Not one striking coach in the world will see his fighter with both hands with his back against the cage, folding up, but Overeem makes it work. He has the experience, and knows that you can do this if you keep your eyes open observing where the punches comes from.

Chin is still shot so + you cant go overboard with heavyweights. Chin of Arlovski is more or less as shot if not worse, but his downfall in this matchup will be that he only has one strike at hand: The staight right. Paw paw, right hand. Paw paw, right hand. Still he is very good with this tool, but i dont think this is enough. An important key here is that greg jackson is in Arlovskis corner which make the game plan slightly more effective in favour of AA. Over the course it will be Overeem scoring, pickins AA a part from the outside. Ground is a wash as either man possibly will struggle a lot trying to take the other man down.

**JIBBBY** · 04-25-16, 05:42 PM

BJ are you the new Joshknows now? Go for it man, show us what you got!!!

**CaptChaos145** · 04-25-16, 09:56 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

6 units on Khabilov @ -200 to win - 3 units

Rationale:

Khabilov is slightly better everywhere and have only lost only to high caliber fighter like Martins and Benson. Where Wade is best, the wrestling, khabilov is better. On the feet it may be a little closer, in fact so close it may be uncomfortable at times but khabilov will get the necessary takedowns to secure the rounds. Wades is not as athletic or fast and is still improving, but not improving at the rate of khabilov. Fight is very likely going all three rounds so for those you that do not have the nerves or trust in the judges wade by dec +250 or maybe +300 at some bookies will be the logical hedge or even fight goes the distance. Fight going the distance is of similar value to Khabilov SU so that may also be as good of alternative to betting this play. Wade was tagged a lot in his fight against Giagos so im not willing to take the chance on that prop

A lot of people who bet on Tumenov should instead consider this bet as wade doesnt nearly possess the submission acumen of Nelson, so the risk of a submission happening in favour of wade should be quite less.

More bets to come....

I'm on Khabilov too. Tumenov/Gunnar scares me. Khabilov is solid and Wade is still a prospect with no striking stoppages.

**bjpenn85** · 04-25-16, 11:01 PM

Originally posted by CaptChaos145

I'm on Khabilov too. Tumenov/Gunnar scares me. Khabilov is solid and Wade is still a prospect with no striking stoppages.

Last time Wade lost he lost to a russian, with wrestling, who took him down and was the slightly better striker, who was the slightly better athlete. Its a bad style matchup for Wade who eaks out decisions taking people down.

**bjpenn85** · 04-29-16, 01:09 AM

Adding:

Parlay/Double

3 units on Sage Northcut at -270/ unknown fighter from here on and out called x

**bjpenn85** · 04-29-16, 10:47 AM

1 unit is 100 dollar

**bjpenn85** · 04-30-16, 09:36 PM

Adding:

10 units on Nikita motherfucking Al Capone Krylov - 6.5 units

A finisher, a super sniper/striker, a submission artist, a speede gonzales vs a fakking slow mo turtle. Biggest mismatch of the century. I did sleep on Krylov due to bad competition. We have now seen that his skills does actually translate to ufc level, although ufc level in light heavyweight is quite bad. The line is a joke. This should be -400. Krylov is the better striker, wrestler, submission artist, more athletic, faster...do you want me to go on? And this is -150? what? Its a reason kalikas hasnt won a single unit last 15 month, he is a horrible capper, bet accordingly!

**bjpenn85** · 05-01-16, 03:31 AM

Adding:

3 units on Horiguchi/ Germaine de randamie - 1,6 units

Anna Elmose may be one of the absolute worst fighters the ufc ever gave a contract. This is an example of how low level womens mma are at this point. Anna Elmose isnt close to the level of larissa Pacheco which Randamie finished easily. This may be over within 10 secounds. This fight shouldnt actually happen and one have the question the atheltic state comission for setting up a fight which isnt at all competitive. Its so unethical i dont know where to start. But you know what? I dont care, my business is to earn money not criticize a developing sport for its flaws.

Horiguchi should crusie to victory by being the better fighter everywhere. He has to get koed to loose here, but upsets happen in MMA, i will never call anything a lock as this fight is at least competitive compared to the womens fight.

**mirinquads** · 05-01-16, 05:04 AM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

Adding:

3 units on Horiguchi/ Germaine de randamie - 1,6 units

Anna Elmose may be one of the absolute worst fighters the ufc ever gave a contract. This is an example of how low level womens mma are at this point. Anna Elmose isnt close to the level of larissa Pacheco which Randamie finished easily. This may be over within 10 secounds. This fight shouldnt actually happen and one have the question the atheltic state comission for setting up a fight which isnt at all competitive. Its so unethical i dont know where to start. But you know what? I dont care, my business is to earn money not criticize a developing sport for its flaws.

Horiguchi should crusie to victory by being the better fighter everywhere. He has to get koed to loose here, but upsets happen in MMA, i will never call anything a lock as this fight is at least competitive compared to the womens fight.

Elmose will do fine when she drops down. Not a bad fighter at all, but she will lose here though.

**bjpenn85** · 05-01-16, 05:44 AM

Originally posted by mirinquads

Elmose will do fine when she drops down. Not a bad fighter at all, but she will lose here though.

She has some will, but she lacks cardio and overall skill. She also as you said undersized coming into this fight. Im not sure if shes able to stay in the ufc. Shes pretty bad everywhere.

**mirinquads** · 05-01-16, 05:53 AM

Totally disagree. Her grappling and striking is fine for the womans division skill level. Got a lot of power for a smaller girl.

**bjpenn85** · 05-01-16, 06:27 AM

Shes packes a good punch, especiall for the weight class and shes aggressive. Compared to Ramdamie i will say her striking is mediocre. I can be diplomatic.

**CaptChaos145** · 05-01-16, 08:54 PM

I'm on Krylov too but his cardio worries me. The guy fades but now he's at LHW so we shall see. It looks like he took some time off to patch some holes in his game. He's very young with a lot of fights already.

**bjpenn85** · 05-02-16, 12:27 AM

Originally posted by CaptChaos145

I'm on Krylov too but his cardio worries me. The guy fades but now he's at LHW so we shall see. It looks like he took some time off to patch some holes in his game. He's very young with a lot of fights already.

Its a concern. He gassed out badly against Sao Palelei and physically he is very quick and powerful which often times means you naturally have bad cardio. Barraso is very inactive and not willing to do anything offensively, hence why he always goes to decision, and as long as Krylov wont gass out so badly to the point he gets finished he should be able to win the first two.

**bjpenn85** · 05-06-16, 03:41 AM

Adding:

1 unit on Barroso dec @ 5 to win back - 4 units
1 unit on Jon Tuck, Magnus Cedenblad @ 2.45 - 1.45 units
1 unit on Chris Wade dec @ 4 to win back - 3 units

**bjpenn85** · 05-08-16, 03:56 PM

Result: +11,1 Units.

Im done hedging. It doesnt work. It only fakks up my profit. Josh was right. My win % is so high that the few times i ever loose its not worth to put anything into it. Just variance. Im done with hedging Im fakking sicking tired of it cutting down my FAKKIN profit. But hey, we dont need that josh guy do we?

**bjpenn85** · 05-08-16, 05:45 PM

For this event i was also thrown out of Betway. So the list goes on. These are the bookies im currently banned from bettin on:
- Skybet
-Paddypower
- Betway
- Quite restricted, but not entirely on Unibet, soon to come.

5dimes has not yet banned me. When that happens im done with MMA betting.

**bjpenn85** · 05-08-16, 06:45 PM

Adding:
UFC 198

6 units on Warley Alves /X - x units
3 units on Trinaldo @ 1.51 - 1.5 units
1.3 units on Corey Anderson - 0.65 units

**bjpenn85** · 05-09-16, 05:02 AM

Adding:

7 units on Demian Maia, Warley Alves @ 1.67 - 4,7 units

**Deceptakhan** · 05-09-16, 09:15 AM

Def like the maia, Anderson, trinaldo bets, will have to look into Alvarez

Do u use Bitcoin books like nitrogen, I can't see them booting u, I could be wrong though, starting to finaly build up my bankroll, would hate to get banned or limited at these big books

**bjpenn85** · 05-09-16, 11:31 AM

Originally posted by Deceptakhan

Def like the maia, Anderson, trinaldo bets, will have to look into Alvarez

Do u use Bitcoin books like nitrogen, I can't see them booting u, I could be wrong though, starting to finaly build up my bankroll, would hate to get banned or limited at these big books

Im thinking about starting using bitcoin. I thought that by not go for payout, by just having funds on the account would be enough to maybe go unoticed, but no. If you win just 2-3000 dollars within a couple of months, youre out.

**bjpenn85** · 05-09-16, 11:32 AM

So far:

UFC198

7 units on Demian Maia, Warley Alves @ 1.67 - 4,7 unit
3 units on Trinaldo @ 1.51 - 1.5 units
1.3 units on Corey Anderson - 0.65 units

**JIBBBY** · 05-09-16, 11:43 AM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

Result: +11,1 Units.

Im done hedging. It doesnt work. It only fakks up my profit. Josh was right. My win % is so high that the few times i ever loose its not worth to put anything into it. Just variance. Im done with hedging Im fakking sicking tired of it cutting down my FAKKIN profit. But hey, we dont need that josh guy do we?

Good work on the +11 units..

Don't get greedy BJ, hedging works and it saves ya at times from getting slaughtered when you miss your strong picks on any one card.. I like the insurance myself because anything can happen in MMA..

**PaperTrail07** · 05-09-16, 03:14 PM

Nice work BJ.....was with you on them all.....I agree on the Hedge....you lose you lose...However...I did catch myself betting Krylov, struve and Reems rounds props.... and inside the distance...

**PaperTrail07** · 05-09-16, 03:15 PM

Love Warley Alves and Souza Parlay......100 pays 60....

Originally posted by bjpenn85

So far:

UFC198

7 units on Demian Maia, Warley Alves @ 1.67 - 4,7 unit
3 units on Trinaldo @ 1.51 - 1.5 units
1.3 units on Corey Anderson - 0.65 units

**PaperTrail07** · 05-09-16, 03:15 PM

Like Anderson as well ......Post a new thread...Keep it Rolling Sir...

**bjpenn85** · 05-09-16, 04:55 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Good work on the +11 units..

Don't get greedy BJ, hedging works and it saves ya at times from getting slaughtered when you miss your strong picks on any one card.. I like the insurance myself because anything can happen in MMA..

Maybe hedging works out for you. For me not so much. I actually earned 2000 dollars but i hedged away 900 dollars. Thats a large bet right there. I do this to often. I dont loose large bet that often. Im only wrong on the small ones. I lost on Mcregor, thats the only large bet i have lost this year. Im not hedging as of know, only on special occasions. If i get the most likely outcome to +1500 off course, i cant say no, or if i have a very good night and the last fight of the event, i risk loosng half of what i have earned obviosly i need to consider buying out or hedging, but yeah. Thats where i stand now.

**bjpenn85** · 05-09-16, 04:58 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

Love Warley Alves and Souza Parlay......100 pays 60....

Not afraid of Roid Belfort by TKO? He is the king of Brazil, he is more or less immortal over there. And that chin of Souza. Most likely he can be defensive and take vitor down, after that, thats all she wrote but...on the flipside, its now so widely known how belfort fights, one have to think Souza will be almost over prepeared for slowing down the pace and take belfort down and tire him out. Logically its hard to see belfort winning, but he is a ko machine.

**CaptChaos145** · 05-09-16, 09:47 PM

Jacare needs to get out of the 1st. If Vitor blitzes Jacare hopefully he can cover up and do what Weidman did. Vitor goes for broke.

**mirinquads** · 05-10-16, 03:28 AM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

BJ are you the new Joshknows now? Go for it man, show us what you got!!!

Nah, he actually bet dogs.

**bjpenn85** · 05-10-16, 05:52 AM

Originally posted by mirinquads

Nah, he actually bet dogs.

Last dog i bet i think was Koreshkov. Im def still improving in this area. You got a good point. Good observation Miri.

**bjpenn85** · 05-10-16, 02:04 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

For this event i was also thrown out of Betway. So the list goes on. These are the bookies im currently banned from bettin on:
- Skybet
-Paddypower
- Betway
- Quite restricted, but not entirely on Unibet, soon to come.

5dimes has not yet banned me. When that happens im done with MMA betting.

Now also Boylesports.com pretty pathetic.

**PaperTrail07** · 05-11-16, 11:50 AM

I agree.....but Souza would beat him either way....it goes to the floor 1 time its over.....Vitor does not looked like roided Vitor either...

Originally posted by bjpenn85

Not afraid of Roid Belfort by TKO? He is the king of Brazil, he is more or less immortal over there. And that chin of Souza. Most likely he can be defensive and take vitor down, after that, thats all she wrote but...on the flipside, its now so widely known how belfort fights, one have to think Souza will be almost over prepeared for slowing down the pace and take belfort down and tire him out. Logically its hard to see belfort winning, but he is a ko machine.

**PaperTrail07** · 05-11-16, 11:50 AM

very pathetic...

Originally posted by bjpenn85

Now also Boylesports.com pretty pathetic.