Lets F*** up some Commas, yeah::::: Rothwell/Dos Santos

[KushMoney]

let's have a money shower right now, let's goooo

JOSH .

Rothwell much higher than 50% chance to win. Must bet?


JDS done? Tough to say now.. After this fight we'll have our answer. His method to victory is Brutal Punching exchange leading to a KO/TKO. He also has another route to victory and that is 5 Round Decision after making Rothwell feels his power, not letting Rothwell get inside or get/secure a takedown. With quick early movement and use of range he can frustrate Rothwell and force him to change his gameplan.


Rothwell essentially has all 3 methods to Victory. He could take JDS down and fukk him up on the ground. He could tire JDS out and punch him across the chin and finish JDS with strikes. He could also outlast JDS and win an ugly decision.

In terms of overall outcome I always like to rank from Highest to lowest, in this fight it goes:
Rothwell by SUB
JDS by TKO/KO
Rothwell by TKO/KO
JDS by Decision
Rothwell by Decision
JDS by SUB

Junior always looks good at weigh-ins, as he did today, but styles make fights.


I really think Ben Rothwell is on that Robbie Lawler shit . solid vet, fearless, on the come up! Rothwell could penetrate up Werdum... and I'm a big Werdum fan.


So yeah $1,800 on Rothwell at +110 at 5d. $200 vs. a coworker who pissed me off saying I was wrong and JDS is going to win and agreed to bet.

[JoshKnows46]

JOSH .

Rothwell much higher than 50% chance to win. Must bet?


JDS done? Tough to say now.. After this fight we'll have our answer. His method to victory is Brutal Punching exchange leading to a KO/TKO. He also has another route to victory and that is 5 Round Decision after making Rothwell feels his power, not letting Rothwell get inside or get/secure a takedown. With quick early movement and use of range he can frustrate Rothwell and force him to change his gameplan.


Rothwell essentially has all 3 methods to Victory. He could take JDS down and fukk him up on the ground. He could tire JDS out and punch him across the chin and finish JDS with strikes. He could also outlast JDS and win an ugly decision.

In terms of overall outcome I always like to rank from Highest to lowest, in this fight it goes:
Rothwell by SUB
JDS by TKO/KO
Rothwell by TKO/KO
JDS by Decision
Rothwell by Decision
JDS by SUB

Junior always looks good at weigh-ins, as he did today, but styles make fights.


I really think Ben Rothwell is on that Robbie Lawler shit . solid vet, fearless, on the come up! Rothwell could penetrate up Werdum... and I'm a big Werdum fan.


So yeah $1,800 on Rothwell at +110 at 5d. $200 vs. a coworker who pissed me off saying I was wrong and JDS is going to win and agreed to bet.

Absolutly, jds only has one path to victory and that's to survive and hope for a robbery dec, I feel rothwell has three paths to victory and they are all a higher probability than jds one path to victory, durability is king at heavy weight, one guy has it, the other doesnt, rothwell has the 3rd highest finishing percentage in mma history...I put jds at less then 10 percent to even make the 5 rounds, as I have rothwell at a 93 percent probability to win, I give jds next to no chance here, when I see people on jds, I literally laugh bro. Feel confident that, that 1800 is coming home to you tommorrow afternoon, this is the biggest lock of the entire card, linesmakers will clean up with jds money, they layed the hook and all the noobs took the bate.

[Droz37]

Absolutly, jds only has one path to victory and that's to survive and hope for a robbery dec, I feel rothwell has three paths to victory and they are all a higher probability than jds one path to victory, durability is king at heavy weight, one guy has it, the other doesnt, rothwell has the 3rd highest finishing percentage in mma history...I put jds at less then 10 percent to even make the 5 rounds, as I have rothwell at a 93 percent probability to win, I give jds next to no chance here, when I see people on jds, I literally laugh bro. Feel confident that, that 1800 is coming home to you tommorrow afternoon, this is the biggest lock of the entire card, linesmakers will clean up with jds money, they layed the hook and all the noobs took the bate.

I loved hearing what Big Ben had to say about the difference between being arrogant and being confident in a recent interview he had.

He definitely has the confidence level that will work hand in hand with his fighting style and his experience, plus he doesn't fear any fighter. I just love it, can't wait to "Collect" Muhahahahaaa!

[LBfightlife]

Post weigh in adds:
Johnson points handicap +3.5 -140 $300 (1 unit)
Rothwell +105 $600 more (11 unit bet now)
Pejic +115 $300 more (2 unit bet now)

Josh am sure you have explained this before but could you tell me what points handicap bet means?

[LBfightlife]

Here's my full card. I'm still playing with house money.. From some of my bets from the stands of UFC 196.. That said I am all in with my house money at this point...

I know I went pretty crazy with some longshot parlays, but only a unit or two worth and hey its fun! Plus I do feel like these fighters on these parlays have a good chance to win.

I'm invested 15 of my (small) units in the card, which i think should be my limit for now. I would like to be in a position for the next card to bet 15 units and still have a decent amount of house money left sitting on the books.

Thanks all for the analysis. GOOD LUCK BOYS!

5D-

Ticket	Accepted Date	Risk	To Win	Status	Wager
1	4/9/16 8:16pm	$5.00	$122.12	Pending	4 Team Parlay
				Pending	4/10/16 4:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1005 Rothwell wins inside distance +135* vs Not Rothwell inside distance
				Pending	4/10/16 4:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1109 Lewis wins inside distance -104* vs Not Lewis inside distance
				Pending	4/10/16 2:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1411 Blachowicz wins by 3 round decision +195* vs Not Blachowicz by 3 round decision
				Pending	4/10/16 12:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1831 Entwhistle wins by submission -115* vs Any other result
31	4/9/16 8:09pm	$10.00	$13.50	Pending	4/10/16 4:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1005 Rothwell wins inside distance +135* vs Not Rothwell inside distance
372	4/9/16 8:09pm	$5.00	$25.00	Pending	4/10/16 4:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1017 Rothwell wins in round 2 +500* vs Any other result
33	4/9/16 8:09pm	$5.00	$41.25	Pending	4/10/16 4:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1019 Rothwell wins in round 3 +825* vs Any other result
	4/9/16 8:09pm	$5.00	$14.50	Pending	4/10/16 4:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1035 Rothwell wins by submission +290* vs Any other result
35	4/9/16 8:09pm	$32.70	$30.00	Pending	4/10/16 4:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1059 Rothwell (scorecards = no action) -109* vs Dos Santos (scorecards = no action)
Totals:		$62.70	$246.37

Bovada:

Bovada
Ben Rothwell - Even Risk: $20 Win: $20
----------------
3 Team Parlay - Risk: $8.78 - Win: $24.77
Bojan Velickovic 0.0 (*185)
Ian Entwistle 0.0 (*160)
Maryna Moroz 0.0 (*190)
-----------------
3 Team Parlay #
UFC/MMA - Fight Winner
Bojan Velickovic 0.0 (-185) Apr 10, 2016 10:30 AM
UFC/MMA - Fight Winner
Maryna Moroz 0.0 (-190) Apr 10, 2016 2:00 PM
UFC/MMA - Fight Winner
Timothy Johnson 0.0 (+125) Apr 10, 2016 3:00 PM
$10.00
$42.91


3 Team Parlay #
Mairbek Taisumov 0.0 (-360) Apr 10, 2016 1:00 PM
UFC/MMA - Fight Winner
Jan Blachowicz 0.0 (-365) Apr 10, 2016 2:30 PM
UFC/MMA - Fight Winner
Curtis Blaydes 0.0 (-145) Apr 10, 2016 3:30 PM
$10.00
$17.51
--------

Placed by Web
2 Team Parlay
Marcin Tybura vs Timothy Johnson
Timothy Johnson 0.0 (+130) Apr 10, 2016 3:00 PM
UFC/MMA - Fight Winner
Ben Rothwell 0.0 (+110) Apr 10, 2016 4:30 PM
$20.00
$76.60
-------------
7 Team Parlay
Filip Pejic 0.0 (EVEN) Apr 10, 2016 11:30 AM
UFC/MMA - Fight Winner
Mairbek Taisumov 0.0 (-360) Apr 10, 2016 1:00 PM
UFC/MMA - Fight Winner
Jan Blachowicz 0.0 (-365) Apr 10, 2016 2:30 PM
UFC/MMA - Fight Winner
Timothy Johnson 0.0 (+130) Apr 10, 2016 3:00 PM
UFC/MMA - Fight Winner
Curtis Blaydes 0.0 (-145) Apr 10, 2016 3:30 PM
UFC/MMA - Fight Winner
Derrick Lewis 0.0 (-145) Apr 10, 2016 4:00 PM
UFC/MMA - Fight Winner
Ben Rothwell 0.0 (+110) Apr 10, 2016 4:30 PM
UFC/MMA - Fight Winner
$5.00
$219.47
-----------------------
5 Team Parlay
Filip Pejic 0.0 (EVEN) Apr 10, 2016 11:30 AM
UFC/MMA - Fight Winner
Mairbek Taisumov 0.0 (-360) Apr 10, 2016 1:00 PM
UFC/MMA - Fight Winner
Maryna Moroz 0.0 (-190) Apr 10, 2016 2:00 PM
UFC/MMA - Fight Winner
Jan Blachowicz 0.0 (-365) Apr 10, 2016 2:30 PM
UFC/MMA - Fight Winner
Curtis Blaydes 0.0 (-145) Apr 10, 2016 3:30 PM
$7.00
$51.77
------------------

3 Team Parlay
UFC/MMA - Fight Winner
Jan Blachowicz 0.0 (-365) Apr 10, 2016 2:30 PM
UFC/MMA - Fight Winner
Timothy Johnson 0.0 (+130) Apr 10, 2016 3:00 PM
UFC/MMA - Fight Winner
Ben Rothwell 0.0 (+110) Apr 10, 2016 4:30 PM
$10.00
$51.53


Total Risk: $90.78

To Win: $504.26

-------------

Total Risk: $151.48

To Win: $750.63



Cheers - Now I Must get away from the PC and party in San Francisco... It's Ladies night tonight .. oh what a night!

[JoshKnows46]

Josh am sure you have explained this before but could you tell me what points handicap bet means?

If the fight goes the distance, and Tybura won 2928 on all 3 score cards, that means 2928 2928 2928, johnson would loss by 3 pts, I got 3.5 points, so I'd still win..if tim stops him inside the distance, I also win.bases of the bet is, I don't see tybura finishing the fight, and it where to go to the judges, hard to see one judge giving him 3 rounds, it's just a little bit safer bet that would protect me from how the judges see it. I hate to see you with so many parlays, that's basically just going all in over and over,thats violital to your bankroll and profit, parlays should be used sparingly. Also don't like seeing bylades and moroz in most of your parlays, oof that's rough, hope to see you go more to a straight wager approach in the future, wish u the best of luck.

id hedge with ngannou ko and stancui sub for a little bud, most of your plays look great, would hate to see you break even just because of two plays, most of the rest i agree with, parlays are tough to hit.

[HurlSweatPants]

Check in with you boys in the AM before the fights start.

[lokihayze]

So people think blaydes will get defeated by nghanou here?

[JoshKnows46]

So people think blaydes will get defeated by nghanou here?

majority of the money coming in on bylades, so i'd guess most think him from the line movement, and what i've seen on this forum most are leaning to bylades being abe to outgrappe ngannou.. Pumped for this card tommorrow morning, im not sleeping, , even though its a shitty card, feels like its been 2 months since the last card, believe i was getting spoiled to the money lol...should have some excellent live betting oppurtunitys with most lines so close, and the books not as well studied on the fighters than i am, at this point, i will eat them alive, and pick their bones clean...

[lokihayze]

Josh and jibbs- what do you both think about Cristina Stanciu?

[lokihayze]

majority of the money coming in on bylades, so i'd guess most think him from the line movement, and what i've seen on this forum most are leaning to bylades being abe to outgrappe ngannou.. Pumped for this card tommorrow morning, im not sleeping, , even though its a shitty card, feels like its been 2 months since the last card, believe i was getting spoiled to the money lol...should have some excellent live betting oppurtunitys with most lines so close, and the books not as well studied on the fighters than i am, at this point, i will eat them alive, and pick their bones clean...

Appreciate your time bro! So you think stanciu is the winner here?

[JoshKnows46]

Appreciate your time bro! So you think stanciu is the winner here?

i do, i believe she will be a problem for most of this division, super aggressive on the feet and on the ground, i posted some thoughts on post #121 of this thread, if you want to give it a read.

[lokihayze]

Thanks heaps bro! You're a champ! Wish I had your vision with this stuff!
In reading people say nghannou can't take blaydes on the ground etc what do you think about that?

[LBfightlife]

222

[JoshKnows46]

Thanks heaps bro! You're a champ! Wish I had your vision with this stuff!
In reading people say nghannou can't take blaydes on the ground etc what do you think about that?

nghannou's gameplan is to keep the fight standing, fight won't see the ground, b ngannou has said he had octagon jitters in his first ufc fight, and was only taken down off a kick against a better mma wrestler, he had no problems defending the rest of the way, but if it happens to go to the ground, both guys are shit on the ground, bylades is shit everywhere, thats the diffrence, ngannou will eventually find his mark, bylades is a lost puppy on the feet, the advantage on the feet is far greater then the stale mate on the ground and bylades has to get through the reach, athletisim, strength, striking on ngannou to get it there, and if he gets it there once, he'll need to do that atleast once more, and it wont be easy as people believe, the film we have to look at isnt the best, becuase bylades is fighting bums off the street, people will relize how bad he is after this fight.

[LBfightlife]

nghannou's gameplan is to keep the fight standing, fight won't see the ground, b ngannou has said he had octagon jitters in his first ufc fight, and was only taken down off a kick against a better mma wrestler, he had no problems defending the rest of the way, but if it happens to go to the ground, both guys are shit on the ground, bylades is shit everywhere.

Yo josh, yea I know I really went hard on the parlays .. next time I'll be more conservative with one or you.. 3 team max.. I keep making bets when I'm rushed or drinking and then later im like "penetrate..." but I think I have good picks. .


Btw guys. .

I watched no tape on stannuci...but MOROZ IS penetrating HOT. .and she's a skrapper... I want her to win
..
She's from the Ukraine aND she's penetrating hot ..

[lokihayze]

I haven't watched tape on either of them but looked at their sherdog records and thought moroz looked good too lbfightkife

[JoshKnows46]

Yo josh, yea I know I really went hard on the parlays .. next time I'll be more conservative with one or you.. 3 team max.. I keep making bets when I'm rushed or drinking and then later im like "penetrate..." but I think I have good picks. .


Btw guys. .

I watched no tape on stannuci...but MOROZ IS penetrating HOT. .and she's a skrapper... I want her to win
..
She's from the Ukraine aND she's penetrating hot ..

lol id definitely bang moroz over stancui...but neither is all that...

[JoshKnows46]

My Full Card:
Ben Rothwell -110 Risking $1100
Ben Rothwell +105 Rsking $600
Ben Rothwell itd +132 Risking $250
Ben Rothwell by sub +500 Risking $100
Rothwell scorecards = no action -120 $600
Rothwell scorecards =no action -131 $350
Rothwell wins in round 2 +525 $100
Rothwell wins in round 3 +875 $100
11 units Invested

Christine Stancui +180 $250
Christine Stancui +155 $250
Christine Stancui +160 $100
2 units Invested

Francis Zavier Ngannou +100 $250
Francis Zavier Ngannou -120 $300
Francis Zavier Ngannou -125 $312.5
Francis Zavier Ngannou -130 $325
Francis Zavier Ngannou +125 $300
5 units Invested


Parlay
Mairbek Taisumov -280
Jon jones -500
Mighty mouse -400
$700 to win $725

Mairbek Taisumov -310 $310 to win $100

Parlay
Mairbek Taisumov -290
NOT Dos Santos Inside the distance -176
$500 to win $554.47
5 units invested


Pejic wins inside the distance +315 $100
Pejic under 2.5 rounds +150 $150
Pejic +105 $150
Pejic under 2.5 +140 $150
Pejic +115 $300
2 units invested in peljic, 1 unit invested on the under

Blancowicz wins by dec +285 $100
0.33 unit invested

Ngannou 3rd round finish +825 $100
Ngannou wins by ko tko +265 $250 to win $662.50
1 unit invested

Lewis 3rd round finish +900 $100
Lewis -140 $150
1 unit invested

Johnson points handicap +3.5 -140 $300
1 unit Invested

Stancui wins in the 2nd +775 $100
Stancui wins in the 3rd +1500 $100
Stancui wins by sub +700 $100
1 unit invested

[JoshKnows46]

My Full Card:
Ben Rothwell -110 Risking $1100
Ben Rothwell +105 Rsking $600
Ben Rothwell itd +132 Risking $250
Ben Rothwell by sub +500 Risking $100
Rothwell scorecards = no action -120 $600
Rothwell scorecards =no action -131 $350
Rothwell wins in round 2 +525 $100
Rothwell wins in round 3 +875 $100
11 units Invested

Christine Stancui +180 $250
Christine Stancui +155 $250
Christine Stancui +160 $100
2 units Invested

Francis Zavier Ngannou +100 $250
Francis Zavier Ngannou -120 $300
Francis Zavier Ngannou -125 $312.5
Francis Zavier Ngannou -130 $325
Francis Zavier Ngannou +125 $300
5 units Invested


Parlay
Mairbek Taisumov -280
Jon jones -500
Mighty mouse -400
$700 to win $725

Mairbek Taisumov -310 $310 to win $100

Parlay
Mairbek Taisumov -290
NOT Dos Santos Inside the distance -176
$500 to win $554.47
5 units invested


Pejic wins inside the distance +315 $100
Pejic under 2.5 rounds +150 $150
Pejic +105 $150
Pejic under 2.5 +140 $150
Pejic +115 $300
2 units invested in peljic, 1 unit invested on the under

Blancowicz wins by dec +285 $100
0.33 unit invested

Ngannou 3rd round finish +825 $100
Ngannou wins by ko tko +265 $250 to win $662.50
1 unit invested

Lewis 3rd round finish +900 $100
Lewis -140 $150
1 unit invested

Johnson points handicap +3.5 -140 $300
1 unit Invested

Stancui wins in the 2nd +775 $100
Stancui wins in the 3rd +1500 $100
Stancui wins by sub +700 $100
1 unit invested

Added:
Pejic rd 2 finish +650 $100
Pejic rd 3 finish +1225 $25

[Droz37]

My Full Card:
Ben Rothwell -110 Risking $1100
Ben Rothwell +105 Rsking $600
Ben Rothwell itd +132 Risking $250
Ben Rothwell by sub +500 Risking $100
Rothwell scorecards = no action -120 $600
Rothwell scorecards =no action -131 $350
Rothwell wins in round 2 +525 $100
Rothwell wins in round 3 +875 $100
11 units Invested

Christine Stancui +180 $250
Christine Stancui +155 $250
Christine Stancui +160 $100
2 units Invested

Francis Zavier Ngannou +100 $250
Francis Zavier Ngannou -120 $300
Francis Zavier Ngannou -125 $312.5
Francis Zavier Ngannou -130 $325
Francis Zavier Ngannou +125 $300
5 units Invested


Parlay
Mairbek Taisumov -280
Jon jones -500
Mighty mouse -400
$700 to win $725

Mairbek Taisumov -310 $310 to win $100

Parlay
Mairbek Taisumov -290
NOT Dos Santos Inside the distance -176
$500 to win $554.47
5 units invested


Pejic wins inside the distance +315 $100
Pejic under 2.5 rounds +150 $150
Pejic +105 $150
Pejic under 2.5 +140 $150
Pejic +115 $300
2 units invested in peljic, 1 unit invested on the under

Blancowicz wins by dec +285 $100
0.33 unit invested

Ngannou 3rd round finish +825 $100
Ngannou wins by ko tko +265 $250 to win $662.50
1 unit invested

Lewis 3rd round finish +900 $100
Lewis -140 $150
1 unit invested

Johnson points handicap +3.5 -140 $300
1 unit Invested

Stancui wins in the 2nd +775 $100
Stancui wins in the 3rd +1500 $100
Stancui wins by sub +700 $100
1 unit invested

I'm with ya on most of your picks, Josh. I also added a few for Timothy Johnson to win at +135, I think he's gonna smother Marcin Tybura on the fence and ground n' pound to the victory. we will see if I made the right decision.

Cheers!

[MexicanStallion]

I've been tailing. Wanted some action while I got into baseball this afternoon.

[Z-Fly]

Josh, they stopped it .0001 seconds too soon lol.

[JoshKnows46]

Killin it
I added $600 more on rothwell at -105

[JoshKnows46]

Josh, they stopped it .0001 seconds too soon lol.

I know, that was a bummer, 3rd round finish was comin.

[LBfightlife]

Should have penetrating pounded JDS by decision .. He's just technically better all over... And has away better damn camp and team.

[LBfightlife]

I decided not to hedge this time....

[capone1899]

Killin it
I added $600 more on rothwell at -105

LOL!! All that money on a bum vs a former champ

[Duckshit]

fail.......I think too much gay pro wrestling....lol

[LBfightlife]

I finished the card down 11 units. Rothwell plodding forward with his hands down and not throwing much leather ... Cannon fodder for JDS.

i learned a couple lessons big lesson here with the parlays 2-3 team at most next time. And also needing to think things through more...

[JoshKnows46]

down a few units, shouldn;t have added those extra 2 units right before the fight started, fuk me...... JDS made rothwell look like a big pus.sy, depressing ending to the card, terrible call on my part.

-$1013.74 on the night
Parlay still pending:
Mairbek Taisumov -280 WON
Jon jones -500 PENDNG
Mighty mouse -400 PENDING
$700 to win $725

[Droz37]

That was a shitty ending to an otherwise successful card. I broke even so the best thing I got out of this card was experience in betting.
Wish Stanciu would have been able to finish that submission in round one, it was looking promising.

[MexicanStallion]

Terrible timing by me to jump on your plays. You did say it was a tough card, so looking forward to the next one. Thanks for sharing the plays.

[robjow]

We'll get em' on the next one Josh - sweet call on Ngannou

[Ultimatemeatball]

down a few units, shouldn;t have added those extra 2 units right before the fight started, fuk me...... JDS made rothwell look like a big pus.sy, depressing ending to the card, terrible call on my part.

-$1013.74 on the night
Parlay still pending:
Mairbek Taisumov -280 WON
Jon jones -500 PENDNG
Mighty mouse -400 PENDING
$700 to win $725

Much respect for the way you handle yourself win or lose. Keep doing what you do, brother. There is a method to this madness, and I'm grateful for the insight both Jibby and yourself share on these forums. I may be down 3 units this event, though I look at that loss as paying a bit of tuition. I don't tail anyone. I do my own capping and learn something new here practically every event. Thank you guys.