UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Mir (March 19, 2016)

[bjpenn85]

I'm riding him til he loses.. That dude is a terminator.. I don't see RDA or Kabib beating him either.. I hit this win the line first came out infact.. I will not be hedging this fight either.. The question is do we take Ferguson ITD when the prop comes out?

$200.00

$300.00

Pending

4/16/16 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1001 Tony Ferguson +150* <small>vs</small> Khabib Nurmagomedov

Odds already dropped 5 points since I placed last week... I expect them to drop more come fight time that's why I placed early..

<small>UFC on Fox 19 - Lightweight 5 rounds - Amalie Arena - Tampa, Florida - Fox</small>
Sat 4/16		1001 Tony Ferguson		<input id="editx" name="M1_11" size="4"> +145	<input id="editx" name="L1_11" size="4"> o3½ -175
10:00PM		1002 Khabib Nurmagomedov		<input id="editx" name="M2_11" size="4"> -165	<input id="editx" name="L2_11" size="4"> u3½ +155

This line will end up at evens when people are coming in fight week due to Nurmas lay off.

[JoshKnows46]

I crushed ferguson no score cards when it came out over and over again. It's basically a free roll, a very good free roll.

[JoshKnows46]

My card: (laprise/pearson bets to come)

Hunt -175/-180 risking $3000 (10 units)

Magny +110/+115 risking $3000 (10 units)

Hunt/mir starts round 2 -135 risking $250 (1 unit)
Hunt/mir starts round 3 +183 risking $250 (1 unit)

Hunt/mir starts round 4 +340 risking $100
Hunt/mir starts round 5 +473 risking $50
Hunt wins by unanimous dec +2000 risking $50
Hunt wins by majority/split dec +2950 risking $50

Magny wins in the 3rd +1700 $50 to win $850
Magny wins by dec +245 $100 to win $245

Parlay
Antonio Carlos jr. -550
Not mir in round 1 -900
Magny/lombard start round 2 -367
Risking $900 to win $603.84 (3 units)

Magny +3.5 points handicap -215 risking $537.50 (2 units)

Johnny Case -115 $1200 total now (4 units)
Johnny Case inside the distance +325 $300 to win $975 (1 unit)

Smith +100/-130/-140 to win $600 (2 units)

Te huna wins in round 1 +120 $100
Case wins in round 3 +1550 $100
Case wins in round 2 +800 $50
Case no scorecards -107 $107
Junior wins by tko/ko +157 $100

Lombard wins by dec +310 $250 to win $775 (1 unit hedge)
Fight goes 3 round distance -155 $310 to win $200 ( 1 unit)
mir wins by sub +350 risking $250 to win $875 (1 unit hedge)

Seohee Ham wins by dec +161 Risking $250 (1 unit)

Case by sub +705 $100
Jouban inside the distance -212 $212
Jouban under 1.5 Rounds -120 $120

Parlay
Jouban -485
Ham/rawl over 2.5 -250
Risking $1200 (4 units)

[JC2008]

How confident are you in Te Huna? He hasn't fought in nearly 2 years and has lost his last 3 fights, albeit against FAR better competition. He should be able to get the job done though..

[JIBBBY]

^^Hunt plays are toast... Frank Mir is gonna take this fight and retire Hunt.....

[JoshKnows46]

How confident are you in Te Huna? He hasn't fought in nearly 2 years and has lost his last 3 fights, albeit against FAR better competition. He should be able to get the job done though..

Not that confident, because of the reasons you mentioned, but he's fighting a bum and should be able to gnp him to victory in the 1st, so confident enough to throw 0.33 of a unit on that happening just based on the low level of opp, and that opps lack of takedown defense.

[JoshKnows46]

^^Hunt plays are toast... Frank Mir is gonna take this fight and retire Hunt.....

Christmas coming early boys, jibbys disagreeing with me on a main event....

[JIBBBY]

I like to take a parlay shot every once in a while. This is my parlay shot and you won't see me play these often anymore.. It's not because Josh likes Hunt either, I'm baited or anything like that..I just liked these 3 guys to win and always did since the fights were 1st announced.....

Locked and loaded boys!!!... Big payout if this hits...

$200.00	$2091.90	Pending	3 Team Parlay
				Pending	3/19/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1001 Frank Mir +145* <small>vs</small> Mark Hunt
				Pending	4/10/16 4:00pm UFC Fighting 1001 Ben Rothwell -110* <small>vs</small> Junior dos Santos
				Pending	4/16/16 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1001 Tony Ferguson +145* <small>vs</small> Khabib Nurmagomedov

[JoshKnows46]

I like to take a parlay shot every once in a while. This is my parlay shot and you won't see me play these often anymore.. It's not because Josh likes Hunt either, I'm baited or anything like that..I just liked these 3 guys to win and always did since the fights were 1st announced.....

Locked and loaded boys!!!... Big payout if this hits...

$200.00	$2091.90	Pending	3 Team Parlay
				Pending	3/19/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1001 Frank Mir +145* <small>vs</small> Mark Hunt
				Pending	4/10/16 4:00pm UFC Fighting 1001 Ben Rothwell -110* <small>vs</small> Junior dos Santos
				Pending	4/16/16 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1001 Tony Ferguson +145* <small>vs</small> Khabib Nurmagomedov

Tailing me on Rothwell and ferguson, i see...but your still gonna lose because you used your own thought process to come up with mir....LOLOLOL

[JIBBBY]

Oh and Josh didn't I take Mousasi in that last UFC event and you went the other way big with Thales Lietes? I even called Mousasi would win by decision and sure enough Mousasi won by decision.. That was our last big head to head fight challenge and yours truly Jibs came out the winner.. I also was on Mesha Tate from the very start.

You might wanna wipe that grin off your face chief as I believe that curse is broken and has been lifted..

People forget Frank Mir was once UFC champion, he's finally healthy and fighting confident again..Frank Mir is quicker, younger, more cerebral, more athletic, better boxer, better ground game then Hunt.. Aged Hunt is now 42, fat and cardio challenged after a round, chin is fading, has no ground game and fights very stationary these days.. He can't even throw a kick any more he's so old and fat..

Hunt bet is TOAST my friend! Back it up while it's still not to late.Lose the juice is my best advice to you.

[JIBBBY]

Tailing me on Rothwell and ferguson, i see...but your still gonna lose because you used your own thought process to come up with mir....LOLOLOL

I picked Tony Ferg and Rothwell the day those fights were announced. I don't tail anyone in MMA Josh come on pal especially if I know the fighters very well..

I don't think we tailed each other on these 2 fights as it's more like we just both had them pegged down and picked them right..

[JoshKnows46]

Tailing me now, haha that's smart jibby, shows u can be taught, keep it up...

[JIBBBY]

Hunt -175/-180 risking $3000 (10 units)

Magny +110/+115 risking $3000 (10 units)
Magny wins in the 3rd +1700 $50 to win $850
Magny wins by dec +245 $100 to win $245

Parlay
Antonio Carlos jr. -550
Not mir in round 1 -900
Magny/lombard start round 2 -367
Risking $900 to win $603.84 (3 units)

Magny +3.5 points handicap -215 risking $537.50 (2 units)

Lombard wins by dec +310 $250 to win $775 (1 unit hedge)
Fight goes 3 round distance -155 $310 to win $200 ( 1 unit)
mir wins by sub +350 risking $250 to win $875 (1 unit hedge)

I see your finally starting to hedge bets Josh about time.. First time I've seen you do this.. Congrats!!!

I've taught you well I see Joshy but I surely didn't teach you how to add and subtract yet.. The only problem with your hedge plays are they are way too small to even come close to covering your straight and parlay money going the other way..

[Ultimatemeatball]

I like to take a parlay shot every once in a while. This is my parlay shot and you won't see me play these often anymore.. It's not because Josh likes Hunt either, I'm baited or anything like that..I just liked these 3 guys to win and always did since the fights were 1st announced.....

Locked and loaded boys!!!... Big payout if this hits...

$200.00	$2091.90	Pending	3 Team Parlay
				Pending	3/19/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1001 Frank Mir +145* <small>vs</small> Mark Hunt
				Pending	4/10/16 4:00pm UFC Fighting 1001 Ben Rothwell -110* <small>vs</small> Junior dos Santos
				Pending	4/16/16 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1001 Tony Ferguson +145* <small>vs</small> Khabib Nurmagomedov

I can see this cashing. Great play.

[JIBBBY]

I can see this cashing. Great play.

Thank you meat ball.. This would be a nice hit if it cashes...

[JC2008]

Geezus Rin Nakai's jacked.

[JoshKnows46]

Geezus Rin Nakai's jacked.

[JC2008]

Haha yeah I saw that vid on Fight Network months ago. She seems like a freak (in a good way).

[JoshKnows46]

I see your finally starting to hedge bets Josh about time.. First time I've seen you do this.. Congrats!!!

I've taught you well I see Joshy but I surely didn't teach you how to add and subtract yet.. The only problem with your hedge plays are they are way too small to even come close to covering your straight and parlay money going the other way..

LOL^ i dont play that pitty pat shit like you jibby, bet both sides, risk tons on money to eek out a small profit...I hedge only when there is one clear path to victory for my opp, i only give lombard 10% at a dec, and 2% at a ko, becuase its in lombards homeland, i raised that dec percentage to 25% chance becuase of his forward pressure i give it a higher chance at robbery, now i'm not gonna bet the same amount as i have on magny becuase magny has 75% chance of winning a dec, and 25% chance of finishing lombard in the third once the juice head gasses out, and his tanks on empty....on the mir fight, i give him zero percent chance of winning a dec becuase he doesn't have the gas tank mark hunt has, if he doesnt get the sub in the first 2 rounds, he is dead in the water, mark hunts takedown defense is outstanding since he learned how to use his low center of gravity, so the chances of mir every getting this fight to the ground is also low, mark hunt has the best chin in the heavyweight division, and is a kickboxing champion, and while mir is also durable, hunt also owns him in this catagory, mir has 1% chance at ko, mir has only one clear path to victory, and that is by sub, it pays good, so i bet it to mitigate loses if the long shot happens, now the chances of that happening are much lower then hunt KO'ing mir or hunt winning dec, so i bet it accordingly based on the long shot that it is. I dont hedge when there is more than 1 clear path to victory, and i never hedge for the same amount as my play, because for 1, i'm right over 80% of the time, and hedging only cuts into my profit, these two hedges will likely cut 1.7 units from my final profit, because they are long shots...betting against myself in essence isn't smart, but i dont mind doing it here, because i know the only paths to victory for the two guys i'm betting against. Pay attention, you may learn something yet!

[JoshKnows46]

Haha yeah I saw that vid on Fight Network months ago. She seems like a freak (in a good way).

I'd mount her and seohee ham.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Lombard from -140 to +125 in the last couple days

[JC2008]

I've gotta believe that Hunt eventually catches Mir with a monster overhand right and ends his evening but after all these underdogs hitting in the main events lately... I may just stay the shit away and focus on the undercard haha.

[JoshKnows46]

I've gotta believe that Hunt eventually catches Mir with a monster overhand right and ends his evening but after all these underdogs hitting in the main events lately... I may just stay the shit away and focus on the undercard haha.

its a easy fight to bet, betting mir by sub nearly eliminates all risk in the play, would be a shame not to win something on hunt, in this mismatch, odds should realistically be much higher, and people love betting against hunt, so they are getting better by the day. just wait it out, and bet hunt late, hedge mir sub, you might want to bet the mir sub hedge, sooner than your bigger bet on hunt, as that line will probable continue to fall as well. i got a terrible line on hunt, pissed about that, good thing you don't pay juice on winners.

[JC2008]

its a easy fight to bet, betting mir by sub nearly eliminates all risk in the play, would be a shame not to win something on hunt, in this mismatch, odds should realistically be much higher, and people love betting against hunt, so they are getting better by the day. just wait it out, and bet hunt late, hedge mir sub, you might want to bet the mir sub hedge, sooner than your bigger bet on hunt, as that line will probable continue to fall as well. i got a terrible line on hunt, pissed about that, good thing you don't pay juice on winners.

I'm still trying to figure out why Johnny Case is +100 against Matthews... I'm pretty sure that line will be even by the time the fight goes off, if Case not favored. I like your round props in that one too.

[JoshKnows46]

I'm still trying to figure out why Johnny Case is +100 against Matthews... I'm pretty sure that line will be even by the time the fight goes off, if Case not favored. I like your round props in that one too.

That line is crazy, and going down, better wrestling, much better grappling, better striking, and fighter iq is much better as well, i got case favored -250, and people are betting mathews. Lol mathews is more athletic, and fighting at home is why I assume people are betting him.

[JC2008]

That line is crazy, and going down, better wrestling, much better grappling, better striking, and fighter iq is much better as well, i got case favored -250, and people are betting mathews. Lol mathews is more athletic, and fighting at home is why I assume people are betting him.

This Jouban fight is somewhat scary to me. He is clearly better but I could see him getting screwed on the cards to the hometown O' Reilly if it somehow goes that far.

[bjpenn85]

This Jouban fight is somewhat scary to me. He is clearly better but I could see him getting screwed on the cards to the hometown O' Reilly if it somehow goes that far.

Yes, cause oreilley is durable and tough, but he leaves so much openings its hard to see how he can avoid to get koed. Jouban could one of those fighters that doesnt perform. He has a potential brandon thatch thing going on if he doesnt win this fight for sure...

[JC2008]

Yes, cause oreilley is durable and tough, but he leaves so much openings its hard to see how he can avoid to get koed. Jouban could one of those fighters that doesnt perform. He has a potential brandon thatch thing going on if he doesnt win this fight for sure...

Yeah it's hard to say, the time difference is massive too so you never know, he may not show up. Dude can still fall back on his Versace contract too haha.

[bjpenn85]

Yeah it's hard to say, the time difference is massive too so you never know, he may not show up. Dude can still fall back on his Versace contract too haha.

Joubain did finish both seth baz and richard walch both of which are a lot better than oreilley standing, so he needs to underperform, but that can happen. He can both win a dec and by KO, while oreilley can only win by dec. Joubain couldnt finish daniel hooker, but he didnt loose although he didnt finish him, so i think that is the most likely outcome, joubain by either KO or decision, outside a small chance of oreilly dec..

[JIBBBY]

I've gotta believe that Hunt eventually catches Mir with a monster overhand right and ends his evening but after all these underdogs hitting in the main events lately... I may just stay the shit away and focus on the undercard haha.

That's what they said about Duffy too..

Mir has actually never been knocked out cold when you think about it.. He's been hit and dropped and then fetals up to be pounded out but that was along time ago.. He's recently gone to decision against some heavy hitters in Arlovski and Reem as well and wasn't put to sleep... Mir has a better chin then most people give him credit for and now has decent head movement.. Josh Barnett was the last to KO Mir with strikes and that was by a monster knee not a punch and he still wasn't out cold in that loss.. His recent losses were against the best in the division. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Frank-Mir-2329

Mir I'm sure has been watching tape on Hunt and knows whats coming.. I can't imagine 42 year old Hunt out working Mir to a decision win either in this fight. Mir has been sitting down on his punches lately and has looked improved standing fight to fight. Mir packs some power himself and I won't be shocked if he dropped Hunt late in the fight.....

Frank Mir is simply more athletic then Mark Hunt and should be better in every area at this point in their MMA careers.. Age is catching up with Mark Hunt now as it does with every fighter after 40..I think it's Frank Mirs fight to win if he can get out of that 1st round.. One take down late and this fight is over for Hunt as well.

Could be some live betting action to be had in this one actually..

Frank Mir has fought the best in division.. Short best highlight vid of him.. Check..

[Sato]

Gotta be careful Jibbby with Mir. Do not overvalue him. Hes so shot. In fact Hunts shot as well and they are both heavy hitters. Hunts chin is still there so he might win a brawling battle. Crazy fight.

[JC2008]

That's what they said about Duffy too..

No... I was on Mir against Duffy because of Duffy's well-known glass mandible. Everyone remembers his first loss from that arm punch.

[Thor4140]

Here is my opinion on Mir Hunt. Im a huge Hunt fan but never trust the guy with the kind of shape he is comin to the fight. His last lost i Tweeted him telling him to just retire already because with all that talent he is just wasting everyone's time. Im not saying it was from that tweet but the prick comes into his next fight in shape with a camp and blitzes that steroid stiff Silva. After the fight he gets with Rogan and say's he started feeling like he was wasting everyones's time lol. Hopefully he stayed with the camp again this fight. You would think him being at home he would. I don't care how old he is his hands are better than anyone's in the heavyweight division. Now Mir looked like an absolute mess coming off the PED and looked awful against Arloski (they both looked shitty) Mir might have been the biggest juicer out there. His body looked terrible last fight. If i had to bet i would think Hunt knocks him out but if Mir can get this in the third or 4th he is so tricky a sub is very possible. Should be an interesting fight. Hunt floors him he is right back in title contention. Mir comes in looking sloppy and gets blitzed it is prolly the end of Mir. Weigh in should be interesting.

[JC2008]

Yes the weigh-in will tell us more. Power is the last thing to go too.

[JIBBBY]

IDK? She kinda seems like an over grown midget chick on steroids to me.. I think I'd take a pass.. Besides that she's a shitty fighter anyways.. Fade material in more ways then one is my take..