TUF Finale: Edgar vs Mendes

[PaperTrail07]

Just dont like laying 2:1 on Laflare...I agree he wins.....I think if Pierce loses he knows he may disappear----its his fight to remain around in the division....IMO>..

feeling good about Laflare here..why pierce? he hasn't fought in around 2 years and Laflare was on a tear before losing to Maia.

[imadegen]

gotta roll with frankie here.. Toms river baby. too technical for mendes, will out pace him too.

[Killer_Demo]

Day 2 fight week. Im ready for next 2 cards. Got the brews on ice already

[JIBBBY]

Yep this event got next up tonight!!! Here we go again..

After a blazing hot start in last nights event I cooled off big time down the stretch.. Did hit all the O/U bets though which was nice... In the end I just won a few bucks after all was said and done with Paige, Elias, and Jim Miller getting lit up like a Christmas tree..

Back again to tackle this event...... Bring it!!!!

[JIBBBY]

This event both prelims and main is on FOX sport 1 too which is nawce...

[PaperTrail07]

Yup Makes for a nice watch.... We all know Ferg Barboza is the fight....anyone w info on GG fight? Guy is a lower level fighter coming off a loss with a bunch of KO/TKO in the first as well.....are they trying to give GG a win here...? Have to think at 32 this guy will bring it in his UFC debut...big opportunity.....thoughts?

This event both prelims and main is on FOX sport 1 too which is nawce...

[JIBBBY]

Here are some last minute write ups that I didn't mention in this thread yet.. Decent reads..

MMAmania prelims - http://www.mmamania.com/2015/12/11/9888652/ufcs-tuf-22-finale-prelims-preview-predictions-edgar-mendes-las-vegas-mma

http://www.todaysknockout.com/mma/ufc/ultimate-fighter-22-finale-predictions/

[JIBBBY]

Yup Makes for a nice watch.... We all know Ferg Barboza is the fight....anyone w info on GG fight? Guy is a lower level fighter coming off a loss with a bunch of KO/TKO in the first as well.....are they trying to give GG a win here...? Have to think at 32 this guy will bring it in his UFC debut...big opportunity.....thoughts?

I'm fading Gabrial Gonzaga I guess, this Russian is unproven and seems like nothing really special from what I can tell. Packs a big ko punch which seems to be GG kryptonite in recent fights.... Gonzaga is way too inconsistent in recent fights for me to bet on.. He's lost his last 3 fights... Trying my luck on the big Russian but by no means is this a slam dunk win.. The under round bet might be money as I think this fight won't last past the 1st round....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Konstantin-Erokhin-98151

[PaperTrail07]

He has fought real fighters thgouh.....I actually remember....the russian looked like totall ass in his debut..this is chance 2..going with GG.....this win keep him semi relevant for a little longer...

I'm fading Gabrial Gonzaga I guess, this Russian is unproven and seems like nothing really special from what I can tell. Packs a big ko punch which seems to be GG kryptonite in recent fights.... Gonzaga is way too inconsistent in recent fights for me to bet on.. He's lost his last 3 fights... Trying my luck on the big Russian but by no means is this a slam dunk win.. The under round bet might be money as I think this fight won't last past the 1st round....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Konstantin-Erokhin-98151

[PaperTrail07]

tough call for sure...

I'm fading Gabrial Gonzaga I guess, this Russian is unproven and seems like nothing really special from what I can tell. Packs a big ko punch which seems to be GG kryptonite in recent fights.... Gonzaga is way too inconsistent in recent fights for me to bet on.. He's lost his last 3 fights... Trying my luck on the big Russian but by no means is this a slam dunk win.. The under round bet might be money as I think this fight won't last past the 1st round....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Konstantin-Erokhin-98151

[JIBBBY]

tough call for sure...

Tough call indeed.. Just remember time and time again Gonzaga blowing his wad early and then folding like a cheap suit and just quiting in several fights once he gets barely hit.. Russian seems tough to finish and throws bombs early on, if he cracks the chin once Gonzaga is a bit gassed GG will ball up and go fetal in a heart beat..

I'm reluctantly going with the big Russian to win in round 1 for best value and most likely outcome.....

1615 Erokhin wins in round 1

<input id="editx" name="M1_116" size="4"> +190

This is the fight breakdown in a nutshell - I agree with the write up...

265 lbs.: Gabriel Gonzaga (16-10) vs. Konstantin Erokhin (9-2)
Now over a decade removed from his UFC debut, Gonzaga finds himself on a three-fight losing streak for the first time. After a 4-1 start to his second UFC run, Gonzaga dropped consecutive fights to Stipe Miocic, Matt Mitrione, and Mirko Filipovic, the latter two via brutal knockout. All sixteen of his wins are by stoppage, nine of them via submission.
Erokhin left a path of destruction on his way to becoming the world’s top heavyweight prospect, scoring eight first-round knockouts in nine wins since a loss in his debut. His first appearance in the UFC didn’t go as planned, however, as he gassed out early against Viktor Pesta en route to an upset decision loss. He will give up three inches of height to the 6’2" "Napao."
Erokhin looked awful in his UFC debut, but I can’t discount the success he had beforehand against solid heavyweights. He went three rounds successfully against Brett Rogers and his takedown defense had never looked that poor before. I’m willing to attribute some of his struggles to UFC jitters.
Of course, I may just be trying to make excuses for one of my favorite prospects.
Erokhin’s punches are on a whole other level of hard compared to most other heavyweights. Gonzaga, who even at his best never could take a shot, is pretty much screwed. Erokhin blasts him out in the first couple of minutes.
Prediction: Erokhin by first-round knockout



If Erokhin goes off on Gonzaga like in this gif below it's his fight to win IMO..

[PaperTrail07]

Cant hate on that bet a bit... GL JIBBBBBS.......Lets make some $$ and enjoy these fights!

[JAFO]

Lobov vs Hall

Where (online or in Vegas) can I place a wager on Lobov??? I can't find a site or casino taking action on this match-up. Hall is a 1-trick pony and will get his arse handed to him tonight!

[JIBBBY]

I'm not completely sold on my Chad Mendes straight win play so I'm gonna hedge a bit with this Edgar ITD prop.. 5 rounds is a long time to go for Chad Mendes based on how he gassed out in round 1 against McGregor.. He does kinda give up his chin when gassed as well..

That's my biggest worry when playing Chad Mendes.. Frankie after all is a fast paced cardio machine and probably finishes Chad late if it lasts.. Chad's best chance is to get the KO early..

$20.00

$121.00

Pending

12/11/15 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1005 Edgar wins inside distance +605* <small>vs</small> Not Edgar inside distance

This is the Chad Mendes and Frankie Edgar KO props anyways -

1041 Mendes wins by TKO/KO

<input id="radiox" value="M1_19" name="radiox" type="radio">+314

1037 Edgar wins by TKO/KO

<input id="radiox" value="M1_17" name="radiox" type="radio">+545

Fight won't go the distance prop is nice as well at +140..

1004 Fight won’t go 5 round distance

<input id="radiox" value="M2_0" name="radiox" type="radio">+140

[PaperTrail07]

Edgar is the play jibbbs....I feel pretty good about it considering the line....seems like a no brainer...

I'm not completely sold on my Chad Mendes straight win play so I'm gonna hedge a bit with this Edgar ITD prop.. 5 rounds is a long time to go for Chad Mendes based on how he gassed out in round 1 against McGregor.. He does kinda give up his chin when gassed as well..

That's my biggest worry when playing him Chad Mendes.. Frankie after all is a cardio machine and probably finishes Chad late if it lasts.. Chad's best chance is to get the KO early..

$20.00

$121.00

Pending

12/11/15 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1005 Edgar wins inside distance +605* <SMALL>vs</SMALL> Not Edgar inside distance

This is the Chad Mendes and Frankie Edgar KO props anyways -

1041 Mendes wins by TKO/KO

<INPUT id=radiox type=radio value=M1_19 name=radiox>+314

1037 Edgar wins by TKO/KO

<INPUT id=radiox type=radio value=M1_17 name=radiox>+545

[JIBBBY]

What's funny about these 2 5Dimes props are - Edgar winning the fight inside the distance is at +605, and the Edgar KO prop is only at +545... Hmmm?

Gee which prop do you take? Lol...

[KingHawkins]

Where (online or in Vegas) can I place a wager on Lobov??? I can't find a site or casino taking action on this match-up. Hall is a 1-trick pony and will get his arse handed to him tonight!

I think most of the offshores have that and the other TUF fight lines up now. Lobov -185 at Sportsbook.com, -165 at 5dimes

[JIBBBY]

I think most of the offshores have that and the other TUF fight lines up now. Lobov -185 at Sportsbook.com, -165 at 5dimes

I think the dog Hall is the play myself...

The write up and I agree with it -

155 lbs.: Artem "The Russian Hammer" Lobov (11-10-1, 1 NC) vs. Ryan Hall (4-1)
Nostradumbass predicts: Artem Lobov was probably just as shocked as the rest of the combat sports community to learn that Saul Rogers was bounced from the card due to **** issues, and matchmakers have done him no favors in replacing the grounded Brit with jiu-jitsu ace Ryan Hall.
And before we get caught up in all those knockout wins on TUF, let's remember that outside the confines of the FOX Sports 1 reality show, "The Russian Hammer" is still a .500 fighter with two of his 10 losses coming by way of submission.
He's also a puffed-up featherweight who lost a decision to get into the house, but got called back because he's close with Conor McGregor and has that rock-em, sock-em robot style of fighting.
That's not going to cut the mustard against Hall.
Hall has a frightening ground game but his offense was borderline embarrassing in a quarterfinal loss to eventual finalist Saul Rogers. Flat feet, sloppy takedowns, you name it. Those heel hooks only work if you can get the fight to the floor and Rogers shucked him off like a bad case of fleas.
Fortunately for the Team USA rep, Lobov does not have the same defense as Rogers.
If Hall can avoid getting backed into the fence, or has enough sense to keep his head off the center line if and when they bang, it's probably only a matter of time before he can get this fight to the mat. While leg locks are his bread and butter, a comparable submission would not surprise me.
Final prediction: Hall def. Lobov via submission

<small>The Ultimate Fighter 22 Finale - Featherweight 3 rounds - The Chelsea at The Cosmopolitan - Las Vegas, Nevada - FS1</small>
Fri 12/11		1101 Ryan Hall		<input id="editx" name="M1_1" size="4"> +145	<input id="editx" name="L1_1" size="4"> o1½ -110
11:30PM		1102 Artem Lobov		<input id="editx" name="M2_1" size="4"> -165	<input id="editx" name="L2_1" size="4"> u1½ -110

I'd take the Hall by sub win prop but there are no props up on the board for this fight...

[JIBBBY]

FS1 Main Card



Artem
Lobov
"The Russian Hammer"
vs
Ryan
Hall
"The Wizard"

[TPowell]

ehhh I think you take Hall by SUB or nothing. If I could get +200 or so I may try it but I think Lobov could easily destroy him before this fight ever gets to the mat

[JIBBBY]

I had a change of heart and now going with Joe Lauzon at +180.. Durham is a grinder, and could wear down Joe and maybe even control him on the ground perhaps but standing I think Joe might be a little more technical.. Joe impressed me with his own toughness in recent fights.. At +180 I thinks it's worth a stab.. Fight really is a coin toss though in my opinion...

ONLINE
12/11/2015
01:56 PM

[Ticket #: 237615023] STRAIGHT BET 12/11/2015 @ 08:00 PM MU [31390] JOE LAUZON +180 (EVAN DUNHAM vrs JOE LAUZON)

101.00

181.80

[bjpenn85]

I had a change of heart and now going with Joe Lauzon at +180.. Durham is a grinder, and could wear down Joe and maybe even control him on the ground perhaps but standing I think Joe might be a little more technical.. Joe impressed me with his own toughness in recent fights.. At +180 I thinks it's worth a stab.. Fight really is a coin toss though in my opinion...

ONLINE
12/11/2015
01:56 PM

[Ticket #: 237615023] STRAIGHT BET 12/11/2015 @ 08:00 PM MU [31390] JOE LAUZON +180 (EVAN DUNHAM vrs JOE LAUZON)

101.00

181.80

Coin toss? So 50/50. Its probably a wash on the ground. Standing dunhams has the edge, but dunhams has also a bit better cardio, wrestling. He is the all around better fighter. Could be a split decision.

[JIBBBY]

Coin toss? So 50/50. Its probably a wash on the ground. Standing dunhams has the edge, but dunhams has also a bit better cardio, wrestling. He is the all around better fighter. Could be a split decision.

Those were my initial thoughts a week ago as I was on Durham but didn't place, watching Lauzons recent fights though it looks like he's improved his striking .. Line moving to +180 ultimately made me flip the switch though.. Blinded by the odds and gambling on Joe.... Joe's usually game in every fight.....

Joe might very well lose to decision though so I can't argue with your logic BJ..

1307 Dunham wins by 3 round decision

<input id="editx" name="M1_52" size="4"> -113

The sharp play is probably taking the fight goes the distance or the Over... Both are pretty tough guys to finish, neither really have one punch KO power either.. Joes a bleeder though..

1303 Dunham / Lauzon goes 3 round distance

<input id="editx" name="M1_50" size="4"> -160

[KingHawkins]

I am on Erosa, Lobov, Edgar, Erokhin, Kawajiri tonight

[JIBBBY]

I am on Kawajiri tonight

I'm not going with the Asian fade theory with this fight.. In also on Kawarjiri as well.. Let's get this Kinghawk...

[TPowell]

Im in as well. Have the asian in a couple parlays

[KingHawkins]

also took a shot at U 4.5 in the main event at +$$$, only because 22 and a half minutes is just so long.
and U 2.5 in the Ferguson fight I got earlier at -120 and I feel pretty good about that one

[fitguy67]

fit's "pick 6 dogs & hope 4+ hit" round-robin lottery fun

risk 22, putting 1 on each possible 4-leg, 5-leg, and 6-leg parlays (15, 6, and 1 respectively)
if 4 hit: net about 30
if 5 hit : net about 400
if all 6 hit: net about 1,900
(anything less than 4 of these dogs hitting loses the lottery ticket of course)

20:00 Lloveras +155
20:30 Wrzosek +105
22:00 Knight +235
22:30 Pierce +190
23:00 Lauzon +185
23:30 Hall +145

[fitguy67]

Only serious straight-up ML plays are
Erokhin -120
Ferguson -140
______

and always up to get swayed with peer-degenerate "logic" into further hopeful plunges as the card unfolds

good luck 'vrybody

[bjpenn85]

Those were my initial thoughts a week ago as I was on Durham but didn't place, watching Lauzons recent fights though it looks like he's improved his striking .. Line moving to +180 ultimately made me flip the switch though.. Blinded by the odds and gambling on Joe.... Joe's usually game in every fight.....

Joe might very well lose to decision though so I can't argue with your logic BJ..

1307 Dunham wins by 3 round decision

<input id="editx" name="M1_52" size="4"> -113

The sharp play is probably taking the fight goes the distance or the Over... Both are pretty tough guys to finish, neither really have one punch KO power either.. Joes a bleeder though..

1303 Dunham / Lauzon goes 3 round distance

<input id="editx" name="M1_50" size="4"> -160

I think dunham decision or fight goes 3.round distance are ok plays. Dunham only loses to freak athletes like guillard, dos anjos cerrones, joe lauzon is no where that level. 78% takedown defence tell you that only way lauzon get this to the ground is by Koing out dunham and then go for the sub. But even tho dunham gets tagged, he has waaaaay better defence than lauzon, historically. If youre on lauzon, youre banking on evan dunham for the first time in history loses to a guy that is worse on paper, so far that is betting against what is logical, but youre getting paid tho if so was to happen. But you cant consistently always for unlogical events to occur, dunham by decision...

[JC2008]

Just a heads up guys, In the Gonzaga/Erokhin fight, the under 1.5 rounds on Bet365 just went from around -210 to -188. They may just hug against the cage for all of round 1 and the Russian takes him out in round 2 at +650.

Odds are it does end in the first but just a heads up!

The russian also went from -110 to -138. Let's hope he gets the job done and doesn't get choked the shit out!

[JIBBBY]

Just a heads up guys, In the Gonzaga/Erokhin fight, the under 1.5 rounds on Bet365 just went from around -210 to -188. They may just hug against the cage for all of round 1 and the Russian takes him out in round 2 at +650.

Odds are it does end in the first but just a heads up!

The russian also went from -110 to -138. Let's hope he gets the job done and doesn't get choked the shit out!

Gonzaga does have major Jits skills but getting the fight to the ground is the problem before getting KO'd on his feet. The sub prop..

1631 Gonzaga wins by submission

<input id="radiox" value="M1_143" name="radiox" type="radio">+345

[JC2008]

Gonzaga does have major Jits skills but getting the fight to the ground is the problem before getting KO'd on his feet. The sub prop..

1631 Gonzaga wins by submission

<input id="radiox" value="M1_143" name="radiox" type="radio">+345

I wish I was on 5dimes right now but Bet365 just has KO/TKO/Submission prop +100 for both men. I am seriously tempted to take Erokhin +650 in round 2 though. I will probably just stick with him to win outright, especially after that line move.

[JC2008]

Jibby - Do you have any leans on the other prelim fights?

[Killer_Demo]

Remember tonights fights are in the smaller 25 foot cage. Tomorrow's fights will be held in larger cage