UFC Fight Night: Gastelum vs. Magny (November 21, 2015)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

FOX Sports 1, 10 p.m. ET
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Neil Magny
Ricardo Lamas vs. Diego Sanchez
Efrain Escudero vs. Leandro Silva
Henry Cejudo vs. Jussier Formiga

FOX Sports 1, 8 p.m. ET
Taylor Lapilus vs. Erik Perez
Bartosz Fabinski vs. Hector Urbina
Scott Jorgensen vs. Alejandro Perez
Gabriel Benitez vs. Andre Fili

UFC Fight Pass, 6:45 p.m. ET
Valmir Lazaro vs. Michel Prazeres
opponent TBA vs. opponent TBA "TUF: Latin America 2" lightweight final
opponent TBA vs. opponent TBA "TUF: Latin America 2" welterweight final

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Wow Diego Sanchez at +530....... guy has been finished only once in over 20 fights in the UFC (BJ Penn) and has a knack for winning decisions in fights he's lost. Plus moving down to featherweight to fight another aging fighter in Lamas?

[PaperTrail07]

Lamas is going to win but DAMN....agree @ +530....

Wow Diego Sanchez at +530....... guy has been finished only once in over 20 fights in the UFC (BJ Penn) and has a knack for winning decisions in fights he's lost. Plus moving down to featherweight to fight another aging fighter in Lamas?

[PaperTrail07]

More Value in Cejudo for sure..Formiga is crafty though

[PaperTrail07]

KG seems like a solid -235 here.... Like Leandro Silva too...

[Sanity Check]

6 foot 3 Neil Magny vs 5 foot 9 Kelvin Gastelum.

Joe Silva has a thing for these David vs Goliath match ups.

[PaperTrail07]

Agree Hell they should have had Musoke Vs Magny and threw KG someone else..

6 foot 3 Neil Magny vs 5 foot 9 Kelvin Gastelum.

Joe Silva has a thing for these David vs Goliath match ups.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

[JIBBBY]

So this event is next up!!! Alrighty then......

I do kinda like Magny at those odds but in all likely hood he will probably get pressed and grapple focked and then stopped in this bout..... Gas has a granite chin as well so I don't think Magny has the power to put his lights out with strikes..

I will say this - Magny will need to fight like Holly Holm did, dance and move and keep distance, and it's more then likely that Magny will win on points and by decision in this 5 rounder if he does..

1007 Magny wins by 5 round decision

<input id="editx" name="M1_2" size="4"> +495

[JIBBBY]

Not alot of forum love for this event I see... Hmmmmm? Not the greatest card but come on now...

Prelim write up and predictions. Part 1 in -

http://www.mmamania.com/2015/11/16/9746190/ufc-fight-night-78-prelims-fight-pass-undercard-preview-predictions-monterrey-mexico-mma

[PaperTrail07]

Gas is the play JIBBBS....guy has heart and a no lose mentality...

[PaperTrail07]

Solid Card IMO....not the best but damn!@...Jorg has been dogshit in his last fights ...prob fade him again..

[JIBBBY]

Gas is the play JIBBBS....guy has heart and a no lose mentality...

Yeah I agree.. Just you think of the reach, experience and potential in Magny and the mind wonders as you then begin to think he has a shot..

[TheCalculator]

I like Magny here. I think Gas will win the first round or 2 -- but his cardio is suspect.

If Gas doesn't finish Mag in the first 2.5 -- I think Mag has a VERY good chance of winning.

[JIBBBY]

I like Magny here. I think Gas will win the first round or 2 -- but his cardio is suspect.

If Gas doesn't finish Mag in the first 2.5 -- I think Mag has a VERY good chance of winning.

I do think Gas will come out pressing and win early rounds.. If Magny survives early on I agree that he could win this fight by decision or late stoppage... Big if though.. Gas is an aggressive hard nose fighter...

[JIBBBY]

Is there any value in trying this long shot prop for small?

Pending11/21/15 9:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1109 Sanchez wins inside distance +1035* <small>vs</small> Not Sanchez inside distance

Lamas should win but he has been KO'd 3 times in his MMA career, Mendez knocked rocked his world in his last fight also.. Lamas doesn't have a granite jaw in other words..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Ricardo-Lamas-32051

If Sanchez isn't too washed up and both Sanchez and Lamas start trading in the pocket I actually like Diego's chances. I don't think Diego can win this fight by decision either.. Lamas is too good..

Diego Sanchez is +425 on the straight now.. This Sanchez ITD prop is +1035. Hmmm?



One thing can be said is that Diego Sanchez has a chin if anything else and is tough as nails.

[Killer_Demo]

2 plays

Magny +235
Lapilus -105

[BELM0NT]

2 Team Parlay
				Pending	11/21/15 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1201 Jussier Formiga/Henry Cejudo Over 2½ -250*
				Pending	11/21/15 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1501 Efrain Escudero/Leandro Silva Over 2½ -210*

[JIBBBY]

$100.00

$470.00

Pending

11/21/15 11:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1331 Marin wins by submission +470* <small>vs</small> Any other result

$90.00

$121.50

Pending

11/21/15 9:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1711 Fabinski wins by 3 round decision +135* <small>vs</small> Not Fabinski by 3 round decision

$100.00

$145.00

Pending

11/21/15 7:30pm UFC Fighting 2002 Alvaro Herrera +145* <small>vs</small> Vernon Ramos

3 bets with value that I think have a very good chance of landing..

[JIBBBY]

2 Team Parlay
				Pending	11/21/15 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1201 Jussier Formiga/Henry Cejudo Over 2½ -250*
				Pending	11/21/15 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1501 Efrain Escudero/Leandro Silva Over 2½ -210*

I really like that over in the Henry Cejudo fight.. GL Bel!!! Joining you on that play..

[JIBBBY]

$100.00

$470.00

Pending

11/21/15 11:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1331 Marin wins by submission +470* <small>vs</small> Any other result

$90.00

$121.50

Pending

11/21/15 9:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1711 Fabinski wins by 3 round decision +135* <small>vs</small> Not Fabinski by 3 round decision

$100.00

$145.00

Pending

11/21/15 7:30pm UFC Fighting 2002 Alvaro Herrera +145* <small>vs</small> Vernon Ramos

3 bets with value that I think have a very good chance of landing..

Against my better judgment I also decided to go with Magny as those odds jumped in his favor... Couldn't help myself.. Adding this as well..

$150.80

$384.50

Pending

11/21/15 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1001 Neil Magny +255* <small>vs</small> Kelvin Gastelum

[BELM0NT]

Diego line really shot up. Might take a stab at that

[BELM0NT]

Diego line really shot up. Might take a stab at that

Took it small before it goes down more

[JIBBBY]

Took it small before it goes down more

It's a long shot as Lamas is by far the more technical fighter of the 2.. He's better in every area.. His chin could be cracked though by Diego's aggression and toughness.. GL Belmont..

I took Diego wins ITD at +1030 as a positive winning hedge bet myself to go along with Lamas in a couple of parlays..

[BELM0NT]

Thanks jibbs, Good Luck to you bro, Im tailing you on this Marin wins by submission +470*

[JIBBBY]

Thanks jibbs, Good Luck to you bro, Im tailing you on this Marin wins by submission +470*

Props are never a guarantee as you just bet off the fighters main strengths and consider the value presented.... Marins best chance to win this fight IF he does is by submission... GL indeed!!

Start time!!!! Trying Lazaro to start TINGS off..

[JIBBBY]

Lazaro with the decision win works barring no judging robbery.. Cezar Arzam got next hopefully..

[JIBBBY]

Robbery right there.. Oh well..

[BELM0NT]

I had Michel but I agree he lost. Probably take downs made it close for judges

[BELM0NT]

Cesar and over 1.5 hopefully

[BELM0NT]

Cesar and over 1.5 hopefully

Dud. Next.

[JIBBBY]

Cesar and over 1.5 hopefully

Not good.. One punch turned the tide..

Always bet small with these early prelims as you never know with these up and coming fighters..

0-2 to start

[JIBBBY]

Herrera for a benny now... Need this...

[BELM0NT]

Not good.. One punch turned the tide..

Always bet small with these early prelims as you never know with these up and coming fighters..

0-2 to start

I agree, coin flip fights

[thetitanlb]

What a joke.....Arz dominating the fight then gets knocked out in 1 random ass punch, You cant predict this crap. What a joke.