UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Henderson 3 (November 07, 2015)

[JIBBBY]

what are ppls thoughts on guida vs. tavares?

Guida grinds on Tavares and takes him down time and time again, maintains top position for 3 rounds mostly to win by decision is my best guess...

Guida has the wrestling advantage and really needs this win to stay relevant and employed in the UFC...

Guida by decision prop isn't out but the most likely out come is that this fight goes the distance anyways... Both these guys are hard to finish and neither are dynamic finishers....

1803 Tavares / Guida goes 3 round distance

<input id="editx" name="M1_138" size="4"> -230

[JIBBBY]

Your prelim previews part 1 and 2...

Part 1 -

http://www.mmamania.com/2015/11/2/9656844/ufc-fight-night-77-prelims-undercard-preview-predictions-pt1-fight-pass-sao-paulo-brazil

Part 2 -

http://www.mmamania.com/2015/11/3/9656848/ufc-fight-night-77-fox-sports-1-prelims-undercard-preview-predictions-pt2-sao-paulo-brazil-mma

Write up on best bets, odds and predictions.. What ever -

http://www.mmamania.com/2015/11/4/9667614/ufc-fight-night-77-latest-vegas-odds-lines-online-betting-guide-belfort-henderson-3-sao-paulo-mma

[PaperTrail07]

Tavares is the play....too strong...guida getting old...

what are ppls thoughts on guida vs. tavares?

[JIBBBY]

Tavares is the play....too strong...guida getting old...

Guida may be burned out a bit but I believe he's switched things up, did win his last fight and I don't think 33 is too old just yet for a smaller guy like Guida in MMA.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Clay-Guida-8184

You could be right though Paper, Tavares is a tough out and could lock in a submission win...

I personally think Guida's wrestling is still good enough to control Tavares on the ground to score points though.. I'm liking the over in this fight the most. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Thiago-Tavares-4647

<small>UFC Fight Night 77 - Featherweight 3 rounds - Sao Paulo, Brazil - FS1</small>
Sat 11/7		1801 Thiago Tavares		<input id="editx" name="M1_8" size="4"> +135	<input id="editx" name="L1_8" size="4"> o2½ -255
8:30PM		1802 Clay Guida		<input id="editx" name="M2_8" size="4"> -155	<input id="editx" name="L2_8" size="4"> u2½ +215

[PaperTrail07]

Well all the forum are with ya....Tavares is better on the feet and should be strong enough to avoid the takedowns....

Guida may be burned out a bit but I believe he's switched things up, did win his last fight and I don't think 33 is too old just yet for a smaller guy like Guida in MMA.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Clay-Guida-8184

You could be right though Paper, Tavares is a tough out and could lock in a submission win...

I personally think Guida's wrestling is still good enough to control Tavares on the ground to score points though.. I'm liking the over in this fight the most. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Thiago-Tavares-4647

<SMALL>UFC Fight Night 77 - Featherweight 3 rounds - Sao Paulo, Brazil - FS1</SMALL>
Sat 11/7		1801 Thiago Tavares		<INPUT id=editx size=4 name=M1_8> +135	<INPUT id=editx size=4 name=L1_8> o2½ -255
8:30PM		1802 Clay Guida		<INPUT id=editx size=4 name=M2_8> -155	<INPUT id=editx size=4 name=L2_8> u2½ +215

[UncleChael]

Cannot fukking wait for this card.

[PaperTrail07]

Agree chael

[JIBBBY]

$50.00

$262.50

Pending

11/7/15 9:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1727 Cabral wins by submission +525* <small>vs</small> Any other result

Johnny Case might win this fight by KO but Cabral is tough and mostly all his wins are by sub and this fight is in Brazil.. I can't see Cabral winning this fight in any other way then by sub as I don't think he can get the decision win..

Thinking this prop has promise for value at those odds.. Thought to share...



Yan
Cabral


BRAZIL
Country
USA

12-1-0
Record
21-4-0

0%
KO/TKO
71%

92%
SUB
14%

8%
DEC
14%

71 in
Height
70 in

155 lbs
Weight
155 lbs

73 in
Reach
72 in

40 in
Leg Reach
42 in

Significant Strikes

1.83
Landed per minute
3.25

52.83%
Accuracy
38.23%

0.94
Absorbed P/M
1.8

71.9%
Defense
56.34%

Grappling

3.28
Takedown Average
3.48

43.48%
Takedown Accuracy
61.54%

33.33%
Takedowns Defended
80%

1.97
Submission Average
000

[JIBBBY]

Also think Cory Anderson either drops Flabio or Fabio gets the KO himself early on... This prop for value sticks out to me in this fight.. Fabio is crap...

Cory I suppose could grapple hump Fabio to a decision but Cory has a bunch of KO's on his record and I could see him dropping or pounding out Fabio in this one.. Black beast'n for the win..

1504 Fight won’t go 3 round distance

<input id="editx" name="M2_110" size="4"> +163

Fabio
Maldonado
"Caipira de Aco"
vs
Corey
Anderson
"Beastin 25/8"

BRAZIL
Country
USA

22-8-0
Record
7-1-0

64%
KO/TKO
43%

9%
SUB
0%

27%
DEC
57%

73 in
Height
75 in

205 lbs
Weight
205 lbs

75 in
Reach
79 in

41 in
Leg Reach
44 in

Significant Strikes

5.74
Landed per minute
5.83

59.36%
Accuracy
47.57%

4.35
Absorbed P/M
2.65

53.3%
Defense
58.62%

Grappling

0.5
Takedown Average
4.3

57.14%
Takedown Accuracy
56.52%

62.5%
Takedowns Defended
50%

0.62
Submission Average
000

[mirinquads]

Yeah, Fabio is known for being easy to knock out.

[Sanity Check]

zzzzzzzzzzz

[JIBBBY]

Yeah, Fabio is known for being easy to knock out.

Stipe and Glover Teix got KO stoppages on Fabio recently.. Fabio is going in against a beast.. We'll see Miri?

I took fight ITD at +170 odds.. Had to try for small...

Odds are too high to bet straight on Cory so looking for another angle..

<small>UFC Fight Night 77 - Light Heavyweight 3 rounds - Sao Paulo, Brazil - FS1 </small>
Sat 11/7		1501 Fabio Maldonado		<input id="radiox" value="M1_5" name="radiox" type="radio">+440	<input id="radiox" value="L1_5" name="radiox" type="radio">o2½ -240
10:00PM		1502 Corey Anderson		<input id="radiox" value="M2_5" name="radiox" type="radio">-580	<input id="radiox" value="L2_5" name="radiox" type="radio">u2½ +200

The smarter play is probably Cory by decision but I like to gamble at times..

1511 Anderson wins by 3 round decision

<input id="radiox" value="M1_114" name="radiox" type="radio">-142

[JIBBBY]

Early prelims I'm mostly gonna pass up on.. This is a first for me.. Passing on fights I can't get a solid grip on... Brazilian fighters are slippery to gage at times especially fighting in Brazil...

Did make a play in the 3rd fight on the Russian Umalatov as my first bet for this card.. Tough Russian will be hard to beat in that match up I believe..

UFC Fight Pass Early Prelims



Viscardi
Andrade
vs
Gasan
Umalatov
"Cobra"

BRAZIL
Country
RUSSIA

17-7-0
Record
15-4-1

[Sanity Check]

zzzzz

[JIBBBY]

zzzzz

You faired pretty well with Bellator last night Sanity if you bet your picks evenly.. The only miss you had was Held right?

I got silly with that damn under with Held and got stung or else I would have had a winning card last night.. All good though..

Keep up the good work tonight and don't fall asleep, God's speed bud!!!

[Sanity Check]

The only miss I had was Held and I still failed to profit. Some of my parlays with Lashley, Straus and Sanchez might hit but probably not lol.

Good luck to all, I was going to say some things that would make people wonder if I was their mom or something but I deleted so nvm.

[Sanity Check]

I got Andrade. Might have set myself up for a big fail here.

[JIBBBY]

I got Andrade. Might have set myself up for a big fail here.

Good call Sanity as I had the small Russian and small prop by KO... Next....

[BELM0NT]

Need Souza next for my dog parlay

[Sanity Check]

This is how I have it.

Vitor Belfort ? Dan Henderson
Glover Teixeira ? Patrick Cummins
Thomas Almeida ? Anthony Birchak
Alex Oliveira > Piotr Hallmann
Gilbert Burns < Rashid Magomedov
Fabio Maldonado < Corey Anderson

Gleison Tibau < Abel Trujillo
Yan Cabral < Johnny Case
Clay Guida > Thiago Tavares
Kevin Souza > Chas Skelly

Viscardi Andrade > Gasan Umalatov
Pedro Munhoz < Jimmie Rivera
Bruno Rodrigues < Matheus Nicolau Pereira

Made extreme low cost parlays with Hendo, Birchak and Cummins in case any of them win.

[JIBBBY]

Need Souza next for my dog parlay

Skelly by decision is my best guess.. Small prop play that's it. Skelly is a grinder...

GL though Belmont...

[richie360]

How did Kelly win that? He looked done!

[JIBBBY]

Skelly... With the choke.. Miracle comeback... I'm tivo'd sorry fellas..

[BELM0NT]

Damn so close

[Sanity Check]

Gotta love that heart by Skelly who looked done.

Good win, Jibby!

[JIBBBY]

I'll tell ya if Vitor isn't juicing which I think he is not Hendo has a chance in this one!! I'll be rooting for the old man to land the H bomb to win later tonight...

[BELM0NT]

You thinking 1st round finish either way jibbs?

[JIBBBY]

I'm on wild man Guida... Not confident though...

[JIBBBY]

You thinking 1st round finish either way jibbs?

Probably.. I don't think either Hendo or Belfort will try to take the fight to the ground.. So the 1st round KO's when fighters are fresh is always a good idea. IMO..

[Sanity Check]

Ditto on not being confident w / Guida.

Guida's endless cardio is Tavares' kryptonite. Tavares got tired in his last fight and Ortega was able to finish him.

But Tavares and subs might also be Guida's kryptonite since he got subbed by Dennis Bermudez.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Damn you Guida, needed the over

[GoGoGadget]

Just give him your neck 30 seconds in Guida

[Kermit]

[BELM0NT]

Feel bad for clay, hope ufc don't cut him

[Sanity Check]

lol that sucks cuz an early sub was probably Tavares' only chance to win.

All Guida had to do is survive long enough for Tavares to gas out and he might have had it.