UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Duffy (October 24, 2015)

[Sanity Check]

And this is a forum FOR BETTORS, the supposedly best, what an absolute joke.

I don't know about the best but maybe a month ago I had between 100-300 SBR betpoints total.

And now I have 1690.

Near to 5x winnings in a month on MMA isn't too bad I would like to think.

[bjpenn85]

I don't know about the best but maybe a month ago I had between 100-300 SBR betpoints total.

And now I have 1690.

Near to 5x winnings in a month on MMA isn't too bad I would like to think.

Does betpoints convert into real cash?

[Beelzebubzy]

Pizza

[Sanity Check]

Does betpoints convert into real cash?

I just want to know how good someone has to be in order to be "the best bettor".



How much further do I need to improve?

[bjpenn85]

I just want to know how good someone has to be in order to be "the best bettor".



How much further do I need to improve?

Its winning over time. Over time you meet obstacles, gain experience so that you know when to bet when to avoid, recognise patterns bla bla. MMA betting market has also changed a bit over the years, so being able to adapt and find new "holes" are quite important. Winning big a month or even a full year doesnt mean you will next year. Are you able to profit 2-3 years then youre good as nothing has grinded you down, not series of fluky decisions, unluck, draws, injuiries ref mistakes, unhealthy bankroll management...then youve seen it all, and overcome.

Or win 5x as much betpoints off course, who can forget!

[mirinquads]

Bet points is all that matters to be honest

[JIBBBY]

Bet points rock and it's too bad I give all mine away.. I'd have 5000 or more already if I wasn't so generous... Betpoints for everyone!!!!

[CaptChaos145]

My take...

I like Poirier & Duffy. Yes Poirier has fought the better comp but remember he dropped to FW cause he had a cpl losses against top LW's (Korean Zombie & Cub.) Yes Poirier beat Max but Max had just turned 20 years old and it was his UFC debut after only 4 pro fights. Using that fight as a measuring stick I think is a mistake.

It's important to understand when a certain fighter fought another fighter and how they won or lost. Some guys get a lot better and they are totally different fighters than they were 3, 4, or 5 years ago.

Poirier is very good but he does get rocked in fights. Duffy, imo, will capitalize on this. I think Duffy is better everywhere. Duffy submitted Ivan Jorge is his last fight. Jorge was never subbed in his career (30 pro fights.) Duffy is also with Tri-Star now. He took 3 years off to work on his boxing and it looks good these days. He will beat Dustin and move into the top 15. Poirier shouldn't be in the top 15 imo.

I like Big Ben as the dog. Stipe is very good but Ben is on a roll and a great value at +250.

[mirinquads]

Poirier got rocked when he was a 145'er mostly, and his skills has increased exponentially since fighting Mcgregor. Way more defensively responsible, and know how to apply his power better than just throwing fast balls hoping something gives like previously. Duffy probably is a slightly bad matchup, but odds shouldnt look like this.
And Poirer should absolutely be in the top 15 if not top 10.

Also, Chan and Cub wasnt lightweight fights..

[agendaman]

I started with 6 loyalty betpts now I have 6523 need to become an sbr pro I guess $100 to charity why not

[Beelzebubzy]

Jibby give me all of your betpoints. It will give you gold karma and good luck

High five emoji!!!

[JIBBBY]

Poirier got rocked when he was a 145'er mostly, and his skills has increased exponentially since fighting Mcgregor. Way more defensively responsible, and know how to apply his power better than just throwing fast balls hoping something gives like previously. Duffy probably is a slightly bad matchup, but odds shouldnt look like this.
And Poirer should absolutely be in the top 15 if not top 10.

Also, Chan and Cub wasnt lightweight fights..

That about sums it up... The question in what method would each fighter win for prop betting purposes?

The props -

<small>Dustin Poirier vs Joseph Duffy - Lightweight 5 rounds - UFC Fight Night 76 propositions</small>
Sat 10/24		1003 Poirier / Duffy goes 5 round distance		<input id="editx" name="M1_0" size="4"> +350
5:00PM		1004 Fight won’t go 5 round distance		<input id="editx" name="M2_0" size="4"> -485
Sat 10/24		1005 Poirier wins inside distance		<input id="editx" name="M1_1" size="4"> +299
5:00PM		1006 Not Poirier inside distance		<input id="editx" name="M2_1" size="4"> -389
Sat 10/24		1007 Poirier wins by 5 round decision		<input id="editx" name="M1_2" size="4"> +700
5:00PM		1008 Not Poirier by 5 round decision		<input id="editx" name="M2_2" size="4"> -1300
Sat 10/24		1009 Duffy wins inside distance		<input id="editx" name="M1_3" size="4"> -154
5:00PM		1010 Not Duffy inside distance		<input id="editx" name="M2_3" size="4"> +124
Sat 10/24		1011 Duffy wins by 5 round decision		<input id="editx" name="M1_4" size="4"> +621
5:00PM		1012 Not Duffy by 5 round decision		<input id="editx" name="M2_4" size="4"> -1101
Sat 10/24		1013 Poirier / Duffy draw		<input id="editx" name="M1_5" size="4"> +16500
5:00PM		1014 Fight not a draw		<input id="editx" name="M2_5" size="4"> -49500
Sat 10/24		1015 Poirier wins in round 1		<input id="editx" name="M1_6" size="4"> +775
5:00PM		1016 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_6" size="4"> -1625
Sat 10/24		1017 Poirier wins in round 2		<input id="editx" name="M1_7" size="4"> +950
5:00PM		1018 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_7" size="4"> -1950
Sat 10/24		1019 Poirier wins in round 3		<input id="editx" name="M1_8" size="4"> +1350
5:00PM		1020 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_8" size="4"> -3250
Sat 10/24		1021 Poirier wins in round 4		<input id="editx" name="M1_9" size="4"> +1950
5:00PM		1022 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_9" size="4"> -5850
Sat 10/24		1023 Poirier wins in round 5		<input id="editx" name="M1_10" size="4"> +2750
5:00PM		1024 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_10" size="4"> -9250
Sat 10/24		1025 Duffy wins in round 1		<input id="editx" name="M1_11" size="4"> +225
5:00PM		1026 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_11" size="4"> -305
Sat 10/24		1027 Duffy wins in round 2		<input id="editx" name="M1_12" size="4"> +425
5:00PM		1028 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_12" size="4"> -675
Sat 10/24		1029 Duffy wins in round 3		<input id="editx" name="M1_13" size="4"> +725
5:00PM		1030 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_13" size="4"> -1545
Sat 10/24		1031 Duffy wins in round 4		<input id="editx" name="M1_14" size="4"> +1225
5:00PM		1032 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_14" size="4"> -2675
Sat 10/24		1033 Duffy wins in round 5		<input id="editx" name="M1_15" size="4"> +1850
5:00PM		1034 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_15" size="4"> -5550
Sat 10/24		1035 Poirier wins by submission		<input id="editx" name="M1_16" size="4"> +505
5:00PM		1036 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_16" size="4"> -915
Sat 10/24		1037 Poirier wins by TKO/KO		<input id="editx" name="M1_17" size="4"> +591
5:00PM		1038 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_17" size="4"> -1172
Sat 10/24		1039 Duffy wins by submission		<input id="editx" name="M1_18" size="4"> +250
5:00PM		1040 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_18" size="4"> -350
Sat 10/24		1041 Duffy wins by TKO/KO		<input id="editx" name="M1_19" size="4"> +145
5:00PM		1042 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_19" size="4"> -185
Sat 10/24		1043 Poirier wins by 5 round unani dec		<input id="editx" name="M1_20" size="4"> +1075
5:00PM		1044 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_20" size="4"> -2225
Sat 10/24		1045 Poirier wins by 5 round split/maj dec		<input id="editx" name="M1_21" size="4"> +1670
5:00PM		1046 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_21" size="4"> -5000
Sat 10/24		1047 Duffy wins by 5 round unani dec		<input id="editx" name="M1_22" size="4"> +930
5:00PM		1048 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_22" size="4"> -1890
Sat 10/24		1049 Duffy wins by 5 round split/maj dec		<input id="editx" name="M1_23" size="4"> +1410
5:00PM		1050 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_23" size="4"> -3690
Sat 10/24		1051 Poirier / Duffy starts round 5		<input id="editx" name="M1_24" size="4"> +282
5:00PM		1052 Fight won’t start round 5		<input id="editx" name="M2_24" size="4"> -372
Sat 10/24		1053 Poirier / Duffy starts round 4		<input id="editx" name="M1_25" size="4"> +195
5:00PM		1054 Fight won’t start round 4		<input id="editx" name="M2_25" size="4"> -255
Sat 10/24		1055 Poirier / Duffy starts round 3		<input id="editx" name="M1_26" size="4"> +117
5:00PM		1056 Fight won’t start round 3		<input id="editx" name="M2_26" size="4"> -147
Sat 10/24		1057 Poirier / Duffy starts round 2		<input id="editx" name="M1_27" size="4"> -205
5:00PM		1058 Fight won’t start round 2		<input id="editx" name="M2_27" size="4"> +165

[JIBBBY]

These props make the most sense to me -

1005 Poirier wins inside distance

<input id="editx" name="M1_1" size="4"> +299

Poirier is capable of a Submission or KO win and I doubt these fighters go 5 rounds..

or

1041 Duffy wins by TKO/KO

<input id="editx" name="M1_19" size="4"> +145

Porrier's chin has be cracked before, Duffy's striking has continued to show improvement and this fight most likely stays standing.

[UncleChael]

These props make the most sense to me -

1005 Poirier wins inside distance

<input id="editx" name="M1_1" size="4"> +299

Poirier is capable of a Submission or KO win and I doubt these fighters go 5 rounds..

or

1041 Duffy wins by TKO/KO

<input id="editx" name="M1_19" size="4"> +145

Porrier's chin has be cracked before, Duffy's striking has continued to show improvement and this fight most likely stays standing.

Give me, Irish Joe Duffy by finish.

[Beelzebubzy]

Diamond

[bjpenn85]

Diamond

Diamond is the safe pick at +200. Thats def not a bad bet. I would question duffys durability since he hasnt even seen the second round. He seems to be better tho and the diamonds defence doesnt exactly shine!

[UncleChael]

A gust of wind blows Poirer over.. Duffy's sub game won't let him up.

[thefastship]

The UFC has built in a crowd favorite winner to get the stadium rocking. My pick of the night is Aisling Daly.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Stipe Miocic injured, pulled from Ben Rothwell fight at UFC Dublin

[UncleChael]

Stipe Miocic injured, pulled from Ben Rothwell fight at UFC Dublin

That was the real Main event!

[JIBBBY]

Stipe Miocic injured, pulled from Ben Rothwell fight at UFC Dublin

That sucks.. That was the one fight I was really looking forward to seeing on this card.. Bet refunded already on 5Dimes that I had pending with Big Ben... Oh well..

[PaperTrail07]

Sorry we dont have a documented 10+ year vet betting and winning in MMA LOL...come on man....your only as good as your next winner...past results like the stock market --can means everything or nothing...

Its winning over time. Over time you meet obstacles, gain experience so that you know when to bet when to avoid, recognise patterns bla bla. MMA betting market has also changed a bit over the years, so being able to adapt and find new "holes" are quite important. Winning big a month or even a full year doesnt mean you will next year. Are you able to profit 2-3 years then youre good as nothing has grinded you down, not series of fluky decisions, unluck, draws, injuiries ref mistakes, unhealthy bankroll management...then youve seen it all, and overcome.

Or win 5x as much betpoints off course, who can forget!

[bjpenn85]

Sorry we dont have a documented 10+ year vet betting and winning in MMA LOL...come on man....your only as good as your next winner...past results like the stock market --can means everything or nothing...

What do you mean by the phrase "only as good as your next winner"? Dont hate on my mmabetting college degree paperfool!

[Unwritten Law]

Jibbby, where's your SBR trivia winner badge?

[JIBBBY]

Jibbby, where's your SBR trivia winner badge?

I keep going and then the questions get nuts..

At the 3rd round it's like what college football running back in 1932 ran for 100 yards in 2 straight games?.. I can't cash out at 60 bet points or so as I let it ride.. SBR has the trivia questions dialed in though..

Major perks on the 3 trivia hits though unwritten.. Hit 4 and that's really impressive... I'd say after 2 hits you are guessing though mostly without cheating.. I won't cheat and if I earn a badge it will be worthy of showing..

[Unwritten Law]

Yeah, definitely the last one is a mind guessing game for the most part. I believe one or twice when I actually knew it and sometimes you think the answer is tricky ends up being the correct one.

Anyhow, I'm on Joe Duffy to take out the Diamond in the main event. Joe has been on a roll without taking any major damage. He could very well face Conor and would probably beat him right now. If those two ended up fighting again, I'm going with Joe - unless they fight in Dublin and fix the fight since Conor is a bigger draw.

[JIBBBY]

^ Unwritten you got me thinking so this time I cashed out at the 3 trivia hit.. Here is your badge below.. Letting it ride in the future though.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Implying this forum consists of the even supposedly best .

[UncleChael]

^ Unwritten you got me thinking so this time I cashed out at the 3 trivia hit.. Here is your badge below.. Letting it ride in the future though.

Nice badge Jibbs.. does it come in mens?

[Killer_Demo]

Beware fading Irish fighters on this card. Can easily see some home cooking decisions for their countrymen

[JIBBBY]

I'm gonna be on this thread next week.. Haven't even tried to cap the prelims yet...

[agendaman]

JIBBBY would appreciate your thoughts on these guys I like this card--solid and a finish stevie ray plus mcclellan- and dalby

[Thrilla]

Madadi say he trained while in prison

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[Thrilla]

Madadi say he trained while in prison

[JIBBBY]

Reza Madadi is a possible hit if his time spent in prison didn't derail his career too much.

Stormin Norman Parke is always a tough out though....

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Norman-Parke-47549

Hard to bet on a fighter that has been in prison for the last few years with simple training or not.. Still Mad Dog might be worth a shot as a 3-1 dog going in..... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Reza-Madadi-18921


Parke has lost his last two bouts by decision to Tibau and Trinaldo which is respectable and that shows just how durable he is, and Madadi is coming off a win over contender Michael Johnson, even though it was two years ago.

Norman Parke has a tendency to leave his neck open when charging in for take downs, and Madadi is one of the best at locking in chokes in an instant (8 submission wins on his record). Madadi is intense, insane, and hungry after a two-year layoff. He will probably look to make an example out of Parke if he can.

Reza Madadi via the submission prop might also be worth the try for even better odds when it comes out.