UFC 188: Velasquez vs. Werdum (June 13, 2015)

[JIBBBY]

Cathal Pendred's winning by decision-streak ends this weekend. Guy has been gifted 2 wins by decision

Sometimes it's better to be more lucky then good.. I won those two last fights betting on him.. Lord those were miracle wins if I ever saw them.... The guys gotta gift of winning and that's tough to bet against as a dog going in against someone that is relatively unproven yet..

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Augusto-Montano-41494

This guys only notable fight was a loss by decision to the slow footed Sam Alvey when Sam Alvey was crap back in 2011.. To Pendred's credit he's never been KO'd and this Mexican wins most of his fights by KO.

Montano's training camp in Mexico City is a bunch of Mexican no names as well just for the record.. His first fight in the UFC was against a bum in 8-3 Heatherly...

I'm gonna play Pendred straight again and by decision also for small in a prop play me tinks...

[Killer_Demo]

Sometimes it's better to be more lucky then good.. I won those two last fights betting on him.. Lord those were miracle wins if I ever saw them.... The guys gotta gift of winning and that's tough to bet against as a dog going in against someone that is relatively unproven yet..

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Augusto-Montano-41494

This guys only notable fight was a loss by decision to the slow footed Sam Alvey when Sam Alvey was crap back in 2011.. To Pendred's credit he's never been KO'd and this Mexican wins most of his fights by KO.

Montano's training camp in Mexico City is a bunch of Mexican no names as well just for the record.. His first fight in the UFC was against a bum as well in 8-3 Heatherly...

I'm gonna play Pendred straight again and by decision also for small in a prop play me tinks...

he lost to Sean Spencer in my opinion. Pendred has the nerve to call out Joe Rogan, Rogan calls it like he sees it.

[UncleChael]

The only bet I'm making on this card is whether or not kevin gastelums fat Ass makes weight

Are you on the no?

[UncleChael]

Thinking of taking a stab at this Irish lad in Cathal Pendred at +135... Cathal is probably more lucky then good but the dude finds ways to win.. About the only dog play I sniffed out so far and feel reasonably comfortable betting on. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Cathal-Pendred-64373

I think this is going to be FAVORITE heavy card IMO... Just can't see or envision alot of the dogs landing in this event..

I'm with ya Jibbs. Cathal Pendred to the Moon!!!

[JIBBBY]

The Henry Cejudo line has jumped out of the building and is now at -1100 or more on most bookies.. It's getting absurd..

Chico Camos will probably lose but he's not a horrible fighter http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Chico-Camus-42850... Henry Cejudo will probably plant Chico on his back the entire fight but still Henry is only 8 fights deep into his pro MMA career and could make a mistake.. I don't see those odds flying against a durable vet like Chico anyways...

Thinking about placing a 10 spot to win 110 to hedge just for giggles and kicks myself... Along with this Cejudo wins by decision prop....

Sat 6/13

1511 Cejudo wins by 3 round decision

<input id="radiox" value="M1_56" name="radiox" type="radio">-160

Oddsbeast -

-1100

-2000

-950

-1000

-1000

-1006

-1100

-1100

-975

-1000

-1100

-1667

[BELM0NT]

Just play this then to play it safe both ways.. No need to hedge either way..

1004 Fight won't go 5 round distance

<input id="editx" name="M2_0" size="4"> -195

I played big "the fight won't go 5 rounds" in the last UFC main event with Hendo/Boetsch and that was the easiest money I ever won.. I don't see why that same theory can't be applied to this main event with the big boys fighting..

The Derrick Lewis/Jordan HW fight in the last UFC event I also played "the fight won't go the 3 round distance".. That hit as well with the big boys... Easy pay off again....

These bets are solid jibbs, I'm with you on fight won't go the distance between Cain vs Werdum

[JIBBBY]

These bets are solid jibbs, I'm with you on fight won't go the distance between Cain vs Werdum

Yep very solid bet Belmont.. Cain fights vey aggressive and at a pace faster then any other HW in the UFC so something should give before the end of 5 rounds one way or the other.. Also don't see Cain playing around on the ground with Werdum that much either.. So the Cain V. lay and pray for 5 rounds is not likely to happen...

I may be loading up on this safe play myself....

[Killer_Demo]

Only play for me this card is -185 Gil Melendez 1 unit, Good luck everyone

[Giants007]

what do you guys think of Tumenov wins by TKO/KO -175 ?

worth the risk at that juice?

[JIBBBY]

what do you guys think of Tumenov wins by TKO/KO -175 ?

worth the risk at that juice?

I like it but not at that -175 odds.

Was really hoping for the prop to land around even odds or better for me to play... Like the under 1.5 better at -115 perhaps if I am to plaly this fight.. Might be a pass not sure yet for this guy..... Small parlay with that under probably...

<small>UFC 188 - Welterweight 3 rounds - Arena Cuidad de Mexico - Mexico City, Mexico - UFC.TV</small>
Sat 6/13		2101 Andrew Todhunter		<input id="radiox" value="M1_11" name="radiox" type="radio">+400	<input id="radiox" value="L1_11" name="radiox" type="radio">o1½ -105
6:30PM		2102 Albert Tumenov		<input id="radiox" value="M2_11" name="radiox" type="radio">-500	<input id="radiox" value="L2_11" name="radiox" type="radio">u1½ -115

[Giants007]

another one I have looked into is Efrain Escudero +130, this has the possibility of some mexican judging home cooking

[El Nino]

Don't really see how Dober is a fav here. PK type fight, goes to a decision. If fat ass Escudero makes weight, he should be a play. Dumb Hecho in Mexico BS...he better win.

[Heyeverybody99]

Pendred +140 is the bet of the millennium.
















Even better than KJ Noons

[Squareguy]

If you think Velasquez will lose get your head checked.

werdum or no play. Cain has been sitting for two years and Werdum will have an edge in striking. Cain can take this to the ground, but it's not ideal. Cain by TKO if you have to be on him.

[UncleChael]

werdum or no play. Cain has been sitting for two years and Werdum will have an edge in striking. Cain can take this to the ground, but it's not ideal. Cain by TKO if you have to be on him.

What?!! son. Home work is done. Read the forum again. Velasquez round 1 +350 is the play.

[bjpenn85]

There isnt a fighter in the ufc that has caused cain prolems, but i know werdum had huge problems with mark hunt. Anyway, try youre muay thai against cains takedown, GOOD F LUCK! You do know that mma-striking is severely negated by takedowns. Thats why boxers dont have success in the ufc! Only x-factor is the layoff, and thats it, thats the only x-factor here.

[brooks85]

some shit, tumenov was going to destroy him. Easiest play on the card

http://www.sherdog.com/news/news/Todhunter-Ruled-Medically-Unfit-to-Compete-UFC-188-Bout-vs-Tumenov-Canceled-87537

[BELM0NT]

Don't forget about Werdum getting beat by Dos Santos first round byTKO either. CAIN ALL DAY.

[JIBBBY]

some shit, tumenov was going to destroy him. Easiest play on the card

http://www.sherdog.com/news/news/Tod...Canceled-87537

Well, that was probably going to be a no play for me anyways because of the odds... Tumenov would have destroyed this medically unfit clown... Too bad for Tumenov as he could have racked up another UFC win...

[JIBBBY]

Fun fact to consider going into this event.. http://mmajunkie.com/2015/06/ufc-188...ude-adjustment

This event is held in Mexico City at 7,200 ft above sea level.. Just a comparison, Mile High Stadium in Denver, Colorado is 5,130 above sea level...

Got oxygen bottle? Maybe the under round bets as well?

[nanderson1134]

bear doom won't last five roundslol I am using tap to speak and it came out bear doom.

Kevin will destroy nate the Great.Melendez by decision

[mirinquads]

Pendred +140 is the bet of the millennium.
















Even better than KJ Noons

Line should be closer, but Pendred penetrating sucks. I'm actually disgusted watching him fight

[JIBBBY]

^^^The Mexico City trained fighters will have the acclimation, home town crowd and judging advantage going into these fights for sure... In the Pendred fight this could make a difference as it probably will go the distance????

Still on Pendred but for small... I also hate watching Pendred fight but that won't stop me from betting on him..

[plekz]

werdum or no play. Cain has been sitting for two years and Werdum will have an edge in striking. Cain can take this to the ground, but it's not ideal. Cain by TKO if you have to be on him.

on what planet is werdum a better striker then cain? more so the real x-factor in this fight is going to be just how much faster and athleticly gifted cain is than werdum.

[JIBBBY]

The Cain/Werdum fight not going the distance prop sure jumped up in the last 2 days..

I guess my original post at that bet being the best safe bet on the card hit the gambling world in a big way....lol.. Went from -195 to -260 now..

1004 Fight won't go 5 round distance

<input id="radiox" value="M2_18" name="radiox" type="radio">-260

Alternative prop plays now to consider for better value -

1052 Fight won't start round 5

<input id="radiox" value="M2_42" name="radiox" type="radio">-195

or even better

1054 Fight won't start round 4

<input id="radiox" value="M2_43" name="radiox" type="radio">-136

Or just hit the standard under round bet at +100 -

<small>UFC 188 - Heavyweight 5 rounds - Arena Cuidad de Mexico - Mexico City, Mexico - PPV</small>
Sat 6/13		1001 Fabricio Werdum		<input id="radiox" value="M1_0" name="radiox" type="radio">+415	<input id="radiox" value="L1_0" name="radiox" type="radio">o2½ -120
11:59PM		1002 Cain Velasquez		<input id="radiox" value="M2_0" name="radiox" type="radio">-525	<input id="radiox" value="L2_0" name="radiox" type="radio">u2½ +100

Feeling greedy try this for positive odds-

1056 Fight won't start round 3

<input id="radiox" value="M2_44" name="radiox" type="radio">+123

[JIBBBY]

Weigh ins - Live video feed in 3 hours if anyone is interested in checking it out online...

http://www.mmafighting.com/2015/6/12/8767169/ufc-188-weigh-in-video

[brooks85]

Well, that was probably going to be a no play for me anyways because of the odds... Tumenov would have destroyed this medically unfit clown... Too bad for Tumenov as he could have racked up another UFC win...

oh the odds were a delicacy to me, after the fight it would have looked like he should have been -1000

[Heyeverybody99]

Line should be closer, but Pendred penetrating sucks. I'm actually disgusted watching him fight

The only thing more disgusting than watching him fight, is betting on him.

[mirinquads]

Yep, I'm on him my self, and by decision +410.

Feel quite dirty.

[BELM0NT]

Cain wins inside the distance -155 is still decent

[JIBBBY]

Yep, I'm on him my self, and by decision +410.

Smart play... Should go the distance.. I'm just not that confident he'll get the nod though with all the factors involved, like altitude and home town judging.. Pendred has been lucky though in the past winning decisions... Good luck Miri!!!

I decided to play it safe and go with the Over round bet myself.. I'm paying to play this at $150 to win $100 though...

<small>UFC 188 - Welterweight 3 rounds - Arena Cuidad de Mexico - Mexico City, Mexico - UFC.TV</small>
Sat 6/13		1901 Augusto Montano		<input id="radiox" value="M1_9" name="radiox" type="radio">-150	<input id="radiox" value="L1_9" name="radiox" type="radio">o1½ -150
7:30PM		1902 Cathal Pendred		<input id="radiox" value="M2_9" name="radiox" type="radio">+130	<input id="radiox" value="L2_9" name="radiox" type="radio">u1½ +130

[JIBBBY]

Everyone made weight didn't see anything out of the norm.... It's on and popping!!


The UFC 188 weigh-in results are below. Copy and paste -

Main card (PPV at 10 p.m. ET)
Cain Velasquez (232) vs. Fabricio Werdum (236)
Gilbert Melendez (156) vs. Eddie Alvarez (156)
Kelvin Gastelum (185) vs. Nate Marquardt (184)
Yair Rodriguez (145) vs. Charles Rosa (145)
Tecia Torres (114) vs. Angela Hill (115)

Undercard (FX at 8 p.m. ET)
Chico Camus (126) vs. Henry Cejudo (125)
Efrain Escudero (156) vs. Drew Dober (155)
Alejandro Perez (136) vs. Patrick Williams (136)
Francisco Trevino (154) vs. Johnny Case (155)

Undercard (UFC Fight Pass at 7 p.m. ET)
Augusto Montano (170) vs. Cathal Pendred (170)
Gabriel Benitez (145) vs. Clay Collard (146)
Albert Turnenov vs. Andrew Todhunter called off

[Heyeverybody99]

Is Camus worth a play at +900? I threw $50 on it.

[Killer_Demo]

Fukkin Joe Rogan right besides Dana waiting for drama to unfold at the weigh-in for Cain vs Verdum. That was great

Look at Rogans face at 1:16 to 1:18

[UncleChael]

Is Camus worth a play at +900? I threw $50 on it.

I think I'll bite.