UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. LaFlare (March 21, 2015)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

FOX Sports 1, 10 p.m. ET
Ryan LaFlare vs. Demian Maia
Josh Koscheck vs. Erick Silva
Gilbert Burns vs. Alex Oliveira
Tony Martin vs. Leonardo Santos
Shayna Baszler vs. Amanda Nunes
Andre Fili vs. Godofredo Pepey

FOX Sports 1, 8 p.m. ET
Akbarh Arreola vs. Francisco Trinaldo
Katsunori Kikuno vs. Kevin Souza
Drew Dober vs. Leandro Silva
Cain Carrizosa vs. Leonardo Mafra

UFC Fight Pass, 7 p.m. ET
Jorge de Oliveira vs. Christos Giagos
Fredy Serrano vs. Bentley Syler

[agendaman]

ufc-185 further strengthened my belief in betting 60% ungerdogs dos anjos etc. these favorites at -450 traps t cash every week-not big mind you using 3 simple rules-totally ignore the expert sharp pks.-60% dogs and gut feeling has the final say hey it works

[JIBBBY]

Like Miri said in the last event thread - Damian Maia seems like a really solid bet at +125 especially being that this event is going down in Rio, Brazil!!!!

I don't have a clue as to how or why that line opened up at +129? I would have pegged Maia as a near 3-1 favorite over Laflare going in...I can honestly only see this line going in one direction anyways.. I predict Damian Maia at -140 or more come fight time..

[Bava]

Like Miri said in the last event thread - Damian Maia seems like a really solid bet at +125 especially being that this event is going down in Rio, Brazil!!!!

I don't have a clue as to how or why that line opened up at +129? I would have pegged Maia as a near 3-1 favorite over Laflare going in...I can honestly only see this line going in one direction anyways.. I predict Damian Maia at -140 or more come fight time..

Awesome capping buds

[JIBBBY]

Awesome capping buds

Bava haven't seen you posting around these necks of the woods for a while.. How ya doing pal?

Capping expanded as requested - Gotta like Maia because he's fighting in his own back yard against a 11 fight pro American simply put.. Demian Maia has represented pretty well lately against some of the best in the UFC. DM has the experience edge, hometown reffing advantage, and is very well rounded now.. More ways to win..

Safe to say - gotta like to favor the legendary Brazilian Jits based fighters over the American wrestlers when judging comes into play and when fighting in Brazil!!!! Lay and pray isn't scored that favorably in other words..

Demian Maia has all the favorable cards going in but you never know as Ryan is undefeated at 11-0, Blackzillian trained, hung in with a couple of decent fighters lately while grinding out decision wins... He'll be game.... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Ryan-LaFlare-34409

Still I like Demian Maia fighting in Rio, Brazil going in as "the dog" against someone like RL with only 11 pro fights... I'll take my chances with DM as he has been improving over the years even though he lost a few tough decisions recently against top notch UFC wrestlers.. It's now or never for DM anyways at age 37.. I think this fight is big for him, he knows it and will represent... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Demian-Maia-14637

[Unwritten Law]

I'm seeing it a bit different between LeFlare and Maia. I think LeFlare has good value in him and he's looked solid thus far in his 4 fights (4-0) in the UFC. The only thing going for Damian at this point is that he's fighting in his backyard but hopefully that won't influence the judges' decision if it goes to the scorecards. Looking at the age difference as well, not bashing Maia's age (37), but it's going to be a long night for him if he can't take the fight to the mat. Predicting a decision win for LeFlare. Hope those odds stays in the plus column by post weight-in/fight time.

[GR33D]

Kos and maia in a parlay for me.

[TheCalculator]

JIBBBY -- fock the haters. You rock.

[JIBBBY]

JIBBBY -- fock the haters. You rock.

Thanks Calc as I'm not use to getting complements on these gambling forums.. Lulz... Yeah haters gonna hate and it happens. Gotta roll with the punches especially on the internet..

Back to event -

Kos vs Silva.. Those odds are massive for Silva at -450... Parlay material at this point maybe?

I'm waiting for the props and under round bets to come out for this fight as I don't think Kos is gonna last and or go the distance.. Again this event takes place in Brazil and Erick Silva is from...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Erick-Silva-15009 .... expect the best ES to walk into the cage.. Tough fight for Kos simply put...

Props aren't out yet.. Books are losing money as I type as this is the next big MMA event coming up..

Anyways - Kinda like the under 1 1/2 round bet at -140 as it is tempting but gonna wait for the prop - fight will not go the distance or won't start the 3rd round as those seem like the safer plays to me.... Those prop odds have to be better then the -450 straight win play on Erick Silva and are just as likely to land in my humble opinion..

<small>UFC Fight Night 62 - Welterweight 3 rounds - Ginasio do Maracanazinho - Rio de Janeiro, Brazil - FS1</small>
Sat 3/21		1101 Josh Koscheck		<input id="radiox" value="M1_1" name="radiox" type="radio">+330	<input id="radiox" value="L1_1" name="radiox" type="radio">o1½ +110
11:59PM		1102 Erick Silva		<input id="radiox" value="M2_1" name="radiox" type="radio">-450	<input id="radiox" value="L2_1" name="radiox" type="radio">u1½ -140

[Hollafront]

JIBBY you suck

[JIBBBY]

Josh Koscheck you suck

Fixed..

[Killer_Demo]

Fixed..

what u got against Kos Jibbby?

[JIBBBY]

^^ I have nothing against Kos Demo.. The dude cracks me up.. I watched him during his entire MMA career.. Just at some point he lost his way in MMA.. That's why he tried commentating and other adventures.. Nothing against Kos as a person though.. As an MMA fighter in the UFC today I do think he has arrived at can status though...


BR - Decent read for the most part..

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2393763-ufc-185-results-burning-questions-heading-into-fight-night-62

[Killer_Demo]

^^ I have nothing against Kos Demo.. The dude cracks me up.. I watched him during his entire MMA career.. Just at some point he lost his way in MMA.. That's why he tried commentating and other adventures.. Nothing against Kos as a person though.. As an MMA fighter in the UFC today I do think he has arrived at can status though...




BR - Decent read for the most part..

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...fight-night-62

When he tried commentating UFC on FOX.

[JIBBBY]

I will say this about Josh Kos from an outsider looking in - just an honest opinion from a guy that saw his entire sports career unfold.... Even watched his silliness on the Ultimate fighter show years back. Much the prankster back then Kos was...

My take - is that Kos got away from his strength which is wrestling after getting exposed standing early on in his MMA career, he then tried really hard to learn standup and become an elite boxer.. No dice was the end result.. Boxing never fully clicked for him like the wrestling did in other words.. In his mind I think he believed he was a better stand up fighter then he really was - he got away from his wrestling and GSP ultimately broke his confidence when he tried to go back to it....

Kos fights with his hands down after a while and his chin up which is MMA suicide at this level, last I checked his chin is not granite either. Me tinks his mojo was first destroyed a few years back when he got KO'd a few times.. It happens.. He also got paid and really doesn't like to get hit in the face these days either and would probably rather get choked out (hense last fight loss)..

Here we are today looking at a broken fighter is what I see about to get smoked by Erick Silva in Brazil...

Kos is funny though, hard worker, seems like a cool guy when not pulling pranks.. I'd hang out and have a few beers and laughs with him for sure.. Great College wrestler.. Made millions fighting in the UFC... Not hating...

Gotta fade the fool though, right? Love Kos but gotta keep it real...

[Killer_Demo]

I will say this about Josh Kos from an outsider looking in - just an honest opinion from a guy that saw his entire sports career unfold.... Even watched his silliness on the Ultimate fighter show years back. Much the prankster back then Kos was...

My take - is that Kos got away from his strength which is wrestling after getting exposed standing early on in his MMA career, he then tried really hard to learn standup and become an elite boxer.. No dice was the end result.. Boxing never fully clicked for him like the wrestling did in other words.. In his mind I think he believed he was a better stand up fighter then he really was - he got away from his wrestling and GSP ultimately broke his confidence...

Kos fights with his hands down after a while and his chin up which is MMA suicide at this level, last I checked his chin is not granite either. Me tinks his confidence was destroyed a few years back when he got KO'd a few times.. It happens.. He also got paid and really doesn't like to get hit in the face these days either and would probably rather get choked out (hense last fight loss)..

Here we are today looking at a broken fighter is what I see about to get smoked by Erick Silva in Brazil...

Kos is funny though, hard worker, seems like a cool guy when not pulling pranks.. I'd hang out and have a few beers and laughs with him for sure.. Great College wrestler.. Made millions fighting in the UFC... Not hating...

Gotta fade the fool now though, right? Love Kos but gotta keep it real...

Jibbby, 10 years is a long time in the hurt-game. TUF 1 was when 2004-05? 80% of current UFC roster won't have the lengivity in the sport as Kos has. You think he will be in UFC fighters HOF?

[JIBBBY]

Jibbby, 10 years is a long time in the hurt-game. TUF 1 was when 2004-05? 80% of current UFC roster won't have the lengivity in the sport as Kos has. You think he will be in UFC fighters HOF?

Hall of Fame is a stretch but based on his popularity and early success I'd say he gets in by a hair...

In conclusion - I'd say Kos's best chance of winning fights these days in the UFC is by the take down and ground and pound.. That double seems to have evaded him as the years flew by though.. I honestly can't remember the last clean double Kos executed and actually was able to hold his opponent down for a round? Diego Sanchez maybe?

Erick Silva won't be easily held down even if Kos is able to execute those explosive doubles...

[Killer_Demo]

Hall of Fame is a stretch but based on his popularity and early success I'd say he gets in by a hair...

In conclusion - I'd say Kos's best chance of winning fights these days in the UFC is by the take down and ground and pound.. That double seems to have evaded him as the years flew by though.. I honestly can't remember the last clean double Kos executed and actually was able to hold his opponent down for a round? Diego Sanchez maybe?

Erick Silva won't be easily held down even if Kos is able to execute those explosive doubles...

Will he go to Bellator after? I doubt it, Made alot of $$$

[Thor4140]

This card may set viewing records. Haven't see a card this sweet in years. Should have been a pay per view.

[JIBBBY]

CP write ups and picks - http://combatpress.com/2015/03/toe-t...d-predictions/


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Thinking 9-2 Tony Martin at -105 gets it done against 13-3-1 Leonardo Santos..

My thinking is they both size up well against each other. Martin ten years the younger has actually fought much stiffer competition to date, Tony Martin's 2 recent losses were against absolute studs in (Daruish and Magomedov) http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Tony-Martin-80436

Flip side - Leonardo Santos is fighting in his own back yard, sure but his last wins were against the very average Efrain Escodaro 23-9, and a young and unproven Patolino at 7-3.. Got a draw with Stormin Norman Parks which may be his best accomplishment so far. Still it's all just not that impressive.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Leonardo-Santos-4810

I'll take the quicker, younger and battle tested Tony Martin even in Brazil going into this one...

<small>UFC Fight Night 62 - Lightweight 3 rounds - Ginasio do Maracanazinho - Rio de Janeiro, Brazil - FS1</small>
Sat 3/21		1201 Tony Martin		<input id="radiox" value="M1_2" name="radiox" type="radio">-105	<input id="radiox" value="L1_2" name="radiox" type="radio">o1½ -185
11:30PM		1202 Leonardo Santos		<input id="radiox" value="M2_2" name="radiox" type="radio">-125	<input id="radiox" value="L2_2" name="radiox" type="radio">u1½ +155

[Hollafront]

E. Silva a lock.

The more I think about it the more I like LaFlare. Maia is a one round fighter.

[fitguy67]

in the quality-parlay fodder department, closest thing to a "sure thing" on this card is nunes over baszler...e.silva over kos would be next closest...

i like maia at the bonus-payout on the home-cage "very close to a coin-flip" fight

[yacuna island]

E. Silva a lock.

The more I think about it the more I like LaFlare. Maia is a one round fighter.

Maia's getting old too, at first I was keen on Maia @ + odds but like you if he doesn't get a finish will he get over run?

When's the last time he got a sub anyway?

If he doesn't get a sub early is it gas city?

[Hollafront]

Maia's getting old too, at first I was keen on Maia @ + odds but like you if he doesn't get a finish will he get over run?

When's the last time he got a sub anyway?

If he doesn't get a sub early is it gas city?

If he doesn't get a sub, then I impregnate the broad in your av

[Hollafront]

E. Silva should walk to the cage with Visine to mess with Koscheck

[JIBBBY]

in the quality-parlay fodder department, closest thing to a "sure thing" on this card is nunes over baszler...e.silva over kos would be next closest...

Nunes probably gets the KO win in this match up but Baszler has the better ground game. I don't consider this a "sure thing" for Nunes by any means.. Baszler has fought some of the best in the division and if she can get Nunes on the ground ya never know????..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Shayna-Baszler-12116


I took Baszler for small at those odds and may still try the "win by sub" prop if those odds are favorable..... Baszler has 14 submission wins out of her 15 victories.. Baszler also has an 11 pro fight experience advantage over Nunes going in. That's something to consider anyways...

[CaptChaos145]

Erik Silva has alternated wins and losses since he debuted in the UFC... win, loss, win, loss, win, loss, win, loss, win, he's due for a loss!

[JIBBBY]

Erik Silva has alternated wins and losses since he debuted in the UFC... win, loss, win, loss, win, loss, win, loss, win, he's due for a loss!

Been reading this trend on the other gambling forums and just don't see it being a legit trend to consider or factor in.. Erick Silva's last loss was to Matt Brown, Kos is a huge step down in competition when comparing the 2... This fight also takes place in his home Country of Brazil.. Erick Silva picks up 2 wins in a row and that trend should be broken against Kos as this may be an even easier fight then his last win against another can in Mike Rhodes..

UFC is feeding Erick Silva cans back to back in other words.. He gets it done...

[Unwritten Law]

Kos still looked decent and Silva is getting too much hype/credit. I would tread lightly with Silva. Who were his notable wins? Nobody, really. His UFC wins have come against Luis Ramos; Charlie Brennemann; Jason High; Takenori Sato; and Mike Rhodes.

Getting 4/1 odds is completely absurd. The odds should be closer towards maybe Silva -175 / Koscheck +145 type-range but not more than quadrupling that. He has mostly fought the top tier fighters.

[Thor4140]

Kos still looked decent and Silva is getting too much hype/credit. I would tread lightly with Silva. Who were his notable wins? Nobody, really. His UFC wins have come against Luis Ramos; Charlie Brennemann; Jason High; Takenori Sato; and Mike Rhodes.

Getting 4/1 odds is completely absurd. The odds should be closer towards maybe Silva -175 / Koscheck +145 type-range but not more than quadrupling that. He has mostly fought the top tier fighters.

Kos looked decent where? He was awful last fight and had all the signs of a finished fighter

[JIBBBY]

Props are up on the board -

<small>Demian Maia vs Ryan LaFlare - Welterweight 5 rounds - UFC Fight Night 62 propositions</small>
Sat 3/21		1003 Maia / LaFlare goes 5 round distance		<input id="radiox" value="M1_0" name="radiox" type="radio">-170
11:59PM		1004 Fight won't go 5 round distance		<input id="radiox" value="M2_0" name="radiox" type="radio">+130
Sat 3/21		1005 Maia wins inside distance		<input id="radiox" value="M1_1" name="radiox" type="radio">+335
11:59PM		1006 Not Maia inside distance		<input id="radiox" value="M2_1" name="radiox" type="radio">-505
Sat 3/21		1007 Maia wins by 5 round decision		<input id="radiox" value="M1_2" name="radiox" type="radio">+290
11:59PM		1008 Not Maia by 5 round decision		<input id="radiox" value="M2_2" name="radiox" type="radio">-410
Sat 3/21		1009 LaFlare wins inside distance		<input id="radiox" value="M1_3" name="radiox" type="radio">+316
11:59PM		1010 Not LaFlare inside distance		<input id="radiox" value="M2_3" name="radiox" type="radio">-447
Sat 3/21		1011 LaFlare wins by 5 round decision		<input id="radiox" value="M1_4" name="radiox" type="radio">+148
11:59PM		1012 Not LaFlare by 5 round decision		<input id="radiox" value="M2_4" name="radiox" type="radio">-188
Sat 3/21		1013 Maia / LaFlare draw		<input id="radiox" value="M1_5" name="radiox" type="radio">+10000
11:59PM		1014 Fight not a draw		<input id="radiox" value="M2_5" name="radiox" type="radio">-30000

<small>Josh Koscheck vs Erick Silva - Welterweight 3 rounds - UFC Fight Night 62 propositions</small>
Sat 3/21		1103 Koscheck / Silva goes 3 round distance		<input id="radiox" value="M1_6" name="radiox" type="radio">+280
11:59PM		1104 Fight won't go 3 round distance		<input id="radiox" value="M2_6" name="radiox" type="radio">-400
Sat 3/21		1105 Koscheck wins inside distance		<input id="radiox" value="M1_7" name="radiox" type="radio">+665
11:59PM		1106 Not Koscheck inside distance		<input id="radiox" value="M2_7" name="radiox" type="radio">-1395
Sat 3/21		1107 Koscheck wins by 3 round decision		<input id="radiox" value="M1_8" name="radiox" type="radio">+640
11:59PM		1108 Not Koscheck by 3 round decision		<input id="radiox" value="M2_8" name="radiox" type="radio">-1320
Sat 3/21		1109 Silva wins inside distance		<input id="radiox" value="M1_9" name="radiox" type="radio">-260
11:59PM		1110 Not Silva inside distance		<input id="radiox" value="M2_9" name="radiox" type="radio">+180
Sat 3/21		1111 Silva wins by 3 round decision		<input id="radiox" value="M1_10" name="radiox" type="radio">+480
11:59PM		1112 Not Silva by 3 round decision		<input id="radiox" value="M2_10" name="radiox" type="radio">-840
Sat 3/21		1113 Koscheck / Silva draw		<input id="radiox" value="M1_11" name="radiox" type="radio">+13500
11:59PM		1114 Fight not a draw		<input id="radiox" value="M2_11" name="radiox" type="radio">-40500

<small>Tony Martin vs Leonardo Santos - Lightweight 3 rounds - UFC Fight Night 62 propositions</small>
Sat 3/21		1203 Martin / Santos goes 3 round distance		<input id="radiox" value="M1_12" name="radiox" type="radio">+115
11:30PM		1204 Fight won't go 3 round distance		<input id="radiox" value="M2_12" name="radiox" type="radio">-155
Sat 3/21		1205 Martin wins inside distance		<input id="radiox" value="M1_13" name="radiox" type="radio">+245
11:30PM		1206 Not Martin inside distance		<input id="radiox" value="M2_13" name="radiox" type="radio">-335
Sat 3/21		1207 Martin wins by 3 round decision		<input id="radiox" value="M1_14" name="radiox" type="radio">+255
11:30PM		1208 Not Martin by 3 round decision		<input id="radiox" value="M2_14" name="radiox" type="radio">-365
Sat 3/21		1209 Santos wins inside distance		<input id="radiox" value="M1_15" name="radiox" type="radio">+175
11:30PM		1210 Not Santos inside distance		<input id="radiox" value="M2_15" name="radiox" type="radio">-245
Sat 3/21		1211 Santos wins by 3 round decision		<input id="radiox" value="M1_16" name="radiox" type="radio">+365
11:30PM		1212 Not Santos by 3 round decision		<input id="radiox" value="M2_16" name="radiox" type="radio">-555
Sat 3/21		1213 Martin / Santos draw		<input id="radiox" value="M1_17" name="radiox" type="radio">+9000
11:30PM		1214 Fight not a draw		<input id="radiox" value="M2_17" name="radiox" type="radio">-25000

<small>Shayna Baszler vs Amanda Nunes - Bantamweight 3 rounds - UFC Fight Night 62 propositions</small>
Sat 3/21		1303 Baszler / Nunes goes 3 round distance		<input id="radiox" value="M1_18" name="radiox" type="radio">+200
11:00PM		1304 Fight won't go 3 round distance		<input id="radiox" value="M2_18" name="radiox" type="radio">-280
Sat 3/21		1305 Baszler wins inside distance		<input id="radiox" value="M1_19" name="radiox" type="radio">+509
11:00PM		1306 Not Baszler inside distance		<input id="radiox" value="M2_19" name="radiox" type="radio">-925
Sat 3/21		1307 Baszler wins by 3 round decision		<input id="radiox" value="M1_20" name="radiox" type="radio">+680
11:00PM		1308 Not Baszler by 3 round decision		<input id="radiox" value="M2_20" name="radiox" type="radio">-1440
Sat 3/21		1309 Nunes wins inside distance		<input id="radiox" value="M1_21" name="radiox" type="radio">-190
11:00PM		1310 Not Nunes inside distance		<input id="radiox" value="M2_21" name="radiox" type="radio">+150
Sat 3/21		1311 Nunes wins by 3 round decision		<input id="radiox" value="M1_22" name="radiox" type="radio">+320
11:00PM		1312 Not Nunes by 3 round decision		<input id="radiox" value="M2_22" name="radiox" type="radio">-460
Sat 3/21		1313 Baszler / Nunes draw		<input id="radiox" value="M1_23" name="radiox" type="radio">+12500
11:00PM		1314 Fight not a draw		<input id="radiox" value="M2_23" name="radiox" type="radio">-37500

[JIBBBY]

Demian Maia/Ryan fight - "1004 fight wont go 5 round distance" at +130 works for me...

Maia either gasses out late and gets finished or Ryan gets sub'd out or pounded out early on is my best guess.. 5 rounds is a long time to go either way for these guys with their contrasting styles......

In other words at age 37 Maia will be pressed hard to go the full 5 rounds and Ryan LaFlare doesn't have the experience to possibly make it 5 rounds himself on foreign soil..

Just my thoughts and I could be wrong..

3/18/15 7:35pm

$100.00

$130.00

Pending

3/21/15 11:59pm Props Fighting 1004 Fight won't go 5 round distance +130* <small>vs</small> Maia / LaFlare goes 5 round distance

ANYONE HAVE SOME PROP IDEAS???? Come on fellas let's work this, sharing is caring...

[Unwritten Law]

Both Maia and LeFlare both have gone to a decision in each of their last 4 bouts. LeFlare 5 round decision would be my pick.

[Unwritten Law]

Kos looked decent where? He was awful last fight and had all the signs of a finished fighter

Dude has only fought the top guys and his past other opponents after Ellenberger, there isn't no shame losing to Woodley, Lawler, and Hendricks (split). I know it's irrelevant to say now but he does have a win, hell, a finish against Anthony "Rumble" Johnson (2009).

Too much chalk to lay against an inconsistent Erik Silva and Kos definitely has a decent chance to win. He might get Stunned like when he fought Dong Hyun Kim!

[JIBBBY]

Both Maia and LeFlare both have gone to a decision in each of their last 4 bouts. LeFlare 5 round decision would be my pick.

Facts are facts and can't argue with your logic Unwritten Law but this fight is going down in Rio, Brazil and it's not a 3 rounder but a 5 rounder.... I got Demian Maia representing with the Brazilian Jits pride and finishing by sub at some point before the final bell sounds.

Most MMA experts are selling the 37 year old Demian Maia as coming up short in this bout.. I'm not buying that and let's see what sticks.

11-0 record, Blackzillian trained and 31 years of age is solid for LaFlare but I'm not sold just yet against a proven veteran like Demain Maia fighting in Brazil....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Demian-Maia-14637.