UFC 183: Silva vs. Diaz (January 31, 2015)

[Imsmarterthanu]

I still think Lineker is a very dangerous midget the guy has unreal power for his weight class just one punch from him puts fighters out of their game plan. That's the only reason he hasn't been cut yet.

[fitguy67]

PT & RP,

i had KG well before the hospital and scale drama...and i still have him...may even add a unit with all the nervous nellies jumping ship, he's a tough dude not to be under-estimated

here's why i decided to not follow the crowd and "stop and reverse" my position...
put yourself in KG's mocassins right now: I'm losing money cuzza the weight cut gone bad...people always write me off and i always fukk'em up by "rising to the occasion"...ok buddy, let's do it again and turn this very-expensive forced-rehydration thing into a plus & win da fight

conclusion: i'm with PT on this one...go with the "fire-hydrant who could and always does" over the more-gifted specimen,pt.3 (1=uriah hall, 2=jake ellenberger, next...)

_________________

Ron's take is the standard psych-workup case...and explains the line movement over these last 24-hours or so

PT's is the very antithesis of that angle...and given that KG's got this far with his surprising ability to overcome obstacles...in this case it's a weight-cutting physiology gone really bad...i'll bet on his wiring to turn this apparent setback on its head...thinking this way, we now have an "earlier-rehydrated KG plus the pounds" vs. the same TW he was going to face a few days ago when he was dehydrated and weak as fukk...

i'll take the hospital and scale drama and the now way better price...so instead of "stopping and reversing" my KG position...i'm going to add to it...enough to sneak out an extra unit of profit on the play...a payout for not getting shaken outa the tree for no real reason
__________
this is what a forum is for...to discuss angles/takes on a fight...no angle is "right" or "wrong" or "stupid" or "smart"...we watch and see how it unfolds...having tickets, on whichever side driven by whichever angle...makes this game we play/hobby/maddening-obsession of ours infinitely more fun...and being able to clarify our sometimes-agreeing/sometimes-conflicting pre-fight angles sharpens up all of our games...allowing us to to clearly answer that question we always ask ourselves after a losing bet..."damn...what was i thinking"
______________

in summary, i'm with PT...given KG's wiring to embrace and conquer adversity...i say stick with the kid if you were on him before the drama...if anything the forced early rehydration makes him consideably stronger than the dried-out shadow of himself that might have made weight yesterday with none of us being the wiser...

go "fire hydrant"

[shabang]

I think the safe play for the woodley gas fight is fight starts 2nd or 3rd round...I don't see either finishing this fight.

[Imsmarterthanu]

all i know is when the big fights start i'm gonna be playing this

makes the fight much more entertaining just put rogan on mute

[PaperTrail07]

100% Up to +170 Now ----

PT & RP,

i had KG well before the hospital and scale drama...and i still have him...may even add a unit with all the nervous nellies jumping ship, he's a tough dude not to be under-estimated

here's why i decided to not follow the crowd and "stop and reverse" my position...
put yourself in KG's mocassins right now: I'm losing money cuzza the weight cut gone bad...people always write me off and i always fukk'em up by "rising to the occasion"...ok buddy, let's do it again and turn this very-expensive forced-rehydration thing into a plus & win da fight

conclusion: i'm with PT on this one...go with the "fire-hydrant who could and always does" over the more-gifted specimen,pt.3 (1=uriah hall, 2=jake ellenberger, next...)

_________________

Ron's take is the standard psych-workup case...and explains the line movement over these last 24-hours or so

PT's is the very antithesis of that angle...and given that KG's got this far with his surprising ability to overcome obstacles...in this case it's a weight-cutting physiology gone really bad...i'll bet on his wiring to turn this apparent setback on its head...thinking this way, we now have an "earlier-rehydrated KG plus the pounds" vs. the same TW he was going to face a few days ago when he was dehydrated and weak as fukk...

i'll take the hospital and scale drama and the now way better price...so instead of "stopping and reversing" my KG position...i'm going to add to it...enough to sneak out an extra unit of profit on the play...a payout for not getting shaken outa the tree for no real reason
__________
this is what a forum is for...to discuss angles/takes on a fight...neither one is "right" or "wrong" or "stupid" or "smart"...we watch and see how it comes down...having tickets, whichever side...makes this whole game we play/hobby/maddening-obsession infinitely more fun

we have yet to see a psychologically "down" KG...and this is easily his toughest challenge to date...the hospital and weight-scale drama can either pull him DOWN or summon UP even-stronger levels of motivation than we've yet seen...

[PaperTrail07]

Well Here are my picks

#1) MMA Fighting
Selection : K. Gastelum 1/31/2015 8:35PM - (PST) Money Line +170 for Game

#2) MMA Fighting
Selection : J. Mein 1/31/2015 7:05PM - (PST) Money Line -150 for Game

#3) MMA Fighting
Selection : I. McCall 1/31/2015 5:35PM - (PST) Money Line -255 for Game

#4) MMA Fighting
Selection : R. Natal 1/31/2015 5:05PM - (PST) Money Line -125 for Game

#5) MMA Fighting
Selection : T. Santos 1/31/2015 3:30PM - (PST) Money Line -175 for Game

[Spedizzo]

Is there any value on Diaz?

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

old mans chin could be gone, who knows

[JIBBBY]

Locky Nick Diaz has no power.. He can't knock out my grandma.. Anderson Silva's old chin holds up in this one..

AS for the win!!!!!

[Beelzebubzy]

Jibbsters give me some plays
Let's profit bud

[fitguy67]

here's the other fight where i think a value bubble has formed because the crowd tends to under-estimate intangible factors...my "spidey sense" says Tate is just more willing to scrap/"make it ugly"/"cat fight"...and that this could nullify much of McMann's clinical "take down and log riding time" leaning (altho' she claims to wanna bang in this one...it's another thing to actually overcome "old habits")...whatever, with Tate at +185 now, i say risking 0.54u to win 1u is wiser than risking 2u in pursuit of the same target on a McMann who hasn't shown enough of a "mean streak" to suit me

the tate/mcmann fight is interesting...neither were impressive in their last outing...

mcmann's got superior wrestling technique, but i give the standing nod to tate, so captain obvious would note that tdd will be key for her

IF her tdd has some success, i give the intangible "scrappiness" edge to tate as well...in mcmann's last fight she got lots of top position and did richard all with it...check the tape, the gal on the bottom did clearly more damage (to the point that i thought the nod could have gone to her just as easily as it did to mcmann)...mcmann's a wrassler but not a GnP'r...doesn't seem to have that violent scrappy edge to her...when standing she's not really looking to do damage, instead focused on setting up a TD...from which she tends to log "riding time"...not sufficiently wired with the "damage infliction" mode to convince me she's worth the almost-200 pricetag

so ability to "score" td's, probably repeatedly, but do next-to-nothing with 'em goes to mcmann...but the willingness to scrap and scramble, to school-yard "cat fight" goes to tate...if tate's gonna win, she's gonna have to make it ugly...she knows that, too...and I expect to see that tough scrappy version that gave Rousey all she could handle for the better part of two rounds in her last scrap with the armbar machine

anyhow, at current prices: tate +160-ish small is my play

[shabang]

here's the other fight where i think a value bubble has formed because the crowd tends to under-estimate intangible factors...my "spidey sense" says Tate is just more willing to scrap/"make it ugly"/"cat fight"...and that this could nullify much of McMann's clinical "take down and log riding time" leaning (altho' she claims to wanna bang in this one...it's another thing to actually overcome "old habits")...whatever, with Tate at +185 now, i say risking 0.54u to win 1u is wiser than risking 2u in pursuit of the same target on a McMann who hasn't shown enough of a "mean streak" to suit me

mcmann is still fresh..she's getting better each fight..I think tate is on the decline..she's looking worse each fight..Mcmann wanted this fight and was the one who asked for it..let's not forget that.

[Kermit]

Locky Nick Diaz has no power.. He can't knock out my grandma.. Anderson Silva's old chin holds up in this one..

AS for the win!!!!!

He knocked out Robbie Lawler.

[JoshKnows46]

Kelvin was way undervalued even at -110, he should still be the favorite in this fight, don't miss out on the +175 Guys.


no value in miesha or diaz. ed herman or boetch have a better chance at a big upset at the same odds as diaz. This coming for a huge diaz fan, my favorite fighter.

[Fidel_CashFlow]

wtf ? no value on Tate or Diaz. get tha fukk outta here

+460 ? Smothering fighter like Diaz, and you see if Silva gets clipped at all what happens.

Silva most likely will pick up the win here but to say zero value in +460 in this particular fight is retarded

[JIBBBY]

He knocked out Robbie Lawler.

Anderson Silva has only been knocked out one time on the flip side Kermit... So both theories cancel each other out..

Robbie Lawler did get clipped indeed by Nick Diaz but that was many years ago.. Robbie never went out cold from that Nick Diaz punch though, just wobbled like crazy.. I don't think Nick Diaz can land with the same power of a Chris Weidman either....

[fitguy67]

Is there any value on Diaz?

there's WAY more live dog value on Zingano over Rousey next card...double the payout and the two actually belong in the same cage together (weight class and resume-wise)...Rousey of course should be favored but not too the ridiculous tune of -1000...

so if you're looking for a good value lottery ticket...i'd consider a Diaz ticket a much surer "donation" to the book at +400ish than Zingano is at +800 next event...

this card, i reckon if you were forced by degeneracy issues into a ML-play on something +300 or more, a better case could be made for a splash on Boetsch than Diaz

[JoshKnows46]

wtf ? no value on Tate or Diaz. get tha fukk outta here

+460 ? Smothering fighter like Diaz, and you see if Silva gets clipped at all what happens.

Silva most likely will pick up the win here but to say zero value in +460 in this particular fight is retarded

lmfao u sir are clueless....go watch the condit/diaz fight....spider>>>condit, spider has better footwork, head movement, fights at 205 for fun, punches and kicks much harder than condit, fighting a welterweight that doesn't have wrestling, it will be intresting becuase of diaz's chin, but he wont be able to put hands on anderson cleanly, replay of the condit fight, but more of a beating in store for diaz..... a diaz play has zero value, waste your money if you wish.....i can find much better big longshot underdogs, i named two just on this card,

[JIBBBY]

Kelvin was way undervalued even at -110, he should still be the favorite in this fight, don't miss out on the +175 Guys.


no value in miesha or diaz. ed herman or boetch have a better chance at a big upset at the same odds as diaz. This coming for a huge diaz fan, my favorite fighter.

I got enough placed on Gas already at the -110.. That +175 is upsetting to see now.. I can't play anymore on a guy that missed weight by 10 pounds.. I still like him to win though.. Woodley's only chance is to out box and out speed Gas for 3 rounds and win by decision.. Could happen but I'm hoping not..

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

the point is Silvas chin might be done, the punch that Wiedman dropped him with was hardly a power shot. Even in the rematch he got dropped by a strange shot in the clich

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Is there any value on Diaz?

Yes. But only via TKO. Silva's chin might be gone. Silva went down to a punch in the clinch vs Weidman. That same punch would have tickled Silva a couple of years ago.

[Fidel_CashFlow]

lmfao u sir are clueless....go watch the condit/diaz fight....spider>>>condit, spider has better footwork, head movement, fights at 205 for fun, punches and kicks much harder than condit, fighting a welterweight that doesn't have wrestling, it will be intresting becuase of diaz's chin, but he wont be able to put hands on anderson cleanly, replay of the condit fight, but more of a beating in store for diaz..... a diaz play has zero value, waste your money if you wish.....i can find much better big longshot underdogs, i named two just on this card,

the whole "lmfao u sir are clueless" shows what you really bring to the table in a discussion such as this.
Anyways, Im not promising a victory by Diaz, but you said he holds ZERO value @ +460 against an athlete
who is coming off of one of the worst mechanical injuries the sport has seen .....
you also edited your original post after I commented. At first all you put was "Diaz and Tate have no value"

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Yes. But only via TKO. Silva's chin might be gone. Silva went down to a punch in the clinch vs Weidman. That same punch would have tickled Silva a couple of years ago.

Yes. I just read the top of the thread. I was talking about the same thing as Locksmith is. Locksmiths video. Didn't see it.

[fitguy67]

wtf ? no value on Tate or Diaz. get tha fukk outta here

+460 ? Smothering fighter like Diaz, and you see if Silva gets clipped at all what happens.

Silva most likely will pick up the win here but to say zero value in +460 in this particular fight is retarded

yes, in the same way that Diego Sanchez was to Ross Pearson in Albuqurque..sure, "always going forward"...like a branch into a wood chipper...

problem with Diaz is he's VERY VERY hittable...and Anderson has pinpoint accuracy with his whole arsenal of strikes...and is very very hard to hit (even when hands-down clowning)

Diaz' only real shot has nothing to do with Diaz, really...it's the fact that fighters can get old overnight...if it's Silva's night to age 20 years, even a "here to pick up a paycheck...whatever" Nick would be sufficient to log a W. I deem that to have a probability less than the 18% required to make +460 worth the pop.

Good analysis of the fight here http://mmabettingtips.com/free-betti...lva-nick-diaz/

[JoshKnows46]

the whole "lmfao u sir are clueless" shows what you really bring to the table in a discussion such as this.
Anyways, Im not promising a victory by Diaz, but you said he holds ZERO value @ +460 against an athlete
who is coming off of one of the worst mechanical injuries the sport has seen .....
you also edited your original post after I commented. At first all you put was "Diaz and Tate have no value"

what are you talking about, if you look at my post it still says miesha and diaz have no value, as they don't.

diaz is coming off a long layoff as well, he got offered a big payday, thats the main reason he's there, its very save to say anderson is alot more motivated than diaz at this point, silvas leg can't break again, its titanium,

[yisman]

Hettes/Brandao has been canceled

Hettes medical issue

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Zero Value

threw some betpoints on that +460 .
Enjoy the fights and the Super Bowl fellas

[marzwoody]

all i know is when the big fights start i'm gonna be playing this

makes the fight much more entertaining just put rogan on mute

Sounds like something they would play at the gay bar. are you sure you don't want Mirin's cack in your mouth?

[shabang]

that conference call video somebody posted a few pages back is hilarious..diaz is going off on silva because he's bringing a steel/titanium pipe into the octagon (steel rod in his leg) .. diaz doesn't think fight is fair

diaz said "I should be able to bring a bat" lol

[JIBBBY]

Hettes/Brandao has been canceled

Hettes medical issue

Really wow..

[shabang]

Really wow..

damn! that would explain the delay in the fightpass prelims

[fitguy67]

that conference call video somebody posted a few pages back is hilarious..diaz is going off on silva because he's bringing a steel/titanium pipe into the octagon (steel rod in his leg) .. diaz doesn't think fight is fair

diaz said "I should be able to bring a bat" lol

shabang...read a few posts past that conference-call post (gotta get to a few posts into the next page)...we may have been punk'd by an impressionist..

even if it was a prank, the diaz on that call makes a good point that for fighters a metal bone replacement could/should very well be classified as weapons...(and that all fractures be knit the old-fashioned "calcium not titanium" way)

that diaz was way more worried about the titanium pipe hitting his skull than Anderson should be about using it

[Jim_Gunn]

Sucks that Brandao/Hettes got pulled from the card. It cancels a lot of my prop bets. My action for tonight. Hope the dogs are barking!:

UFC 183

Silva wins by 5 round unanimous decision (+340) $25.00 for $85.00
Tyron Woodley (-130) vs Kelvin Gastelum $130.00 for $100.00
Tyron Woodley wins by 3 round decision (+300) $25.00 for $75.00
Gastelum wins by submission (+775) $10.00 for $77.50
Joe Lauzon (+225) vs Al Iaquinta $40.00 for $90.00
Tim Boetsch wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+885) $25.00 for $221.25
Boetsch wins in round 3 (+2550) $10.00 for $255.00
Thiago Alves (+130) vs Jordan Mein $50.00 for $65.00

Miesha Tate (+165) vs Sara McMann $50.00 for $82.50
Tate wins by submission (+755) $10.00 for $75.50
Ed Herman (+505) vs Derek Brunson $40.00 for $202.00
Herman wins by submission (+1430) $10.00 for $143.00
John Lineker (+215) vs Ian McCall $50.00 for $107.50
Lineker wins by 3 round decision (+450) $40.00 for $180.00
Tom Watson (+125) vs Rafael Natal $40.00 for $50.00
Tom Watson wins by 3 round decision (+373) $40.00 for $149.20

Diego Brandao wins by 3 round decision (+225) $25.00 for $56.25
Ildemar Alcantara (-165) vs Richardson Moreira $82.50 for $50.00
Ildemar Alcantara wins by submission (+525) $20.00 for $105.00
Richardson Moreira wins by KO/TKO (+525) $10.00 for $52.50
Thiago Santos/Andy Enz Under 2½ (+170) $25.00 for $42.50

Fights to end in KO/TKO over 3½ (-125) $50.00 for $40.00
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 4½ (+219) $20.00 for $43.80
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 5½ (+563) $10.00 $56.30
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 6½ (+1570) $5.00 for $78.50
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 7½ (+5850) $3.00 for $175.50
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 8½ (+29800) $2.00 for $596.00

Lauzon /Iaquinta FOTN award winner (+500) $20.00 for $100.00
Ildemar Alcantara wins Fastest SUB (+1350) $10.00 for $135.00
Thiago Santos wins Fastest KO (+1500) $10.00 for $150.00

Parlay:
Not Natal inside distance (-340) + Not Brunson inside distance (-192) $100.00 for $96.81

[Unwritten Law]

Wow, weight issues and now not medically cleared.

Who is everyone on for the first fight?

[shabang]

shabang...read a few posts past that conference-call post (gotta get to a few posts into the next page)...we may have been punk'd by an impressionist..

even if it was a prank, the diaz on that call makes a good point that for fighters a metal bone replacement could/should very well be classified as weapons...(and that all fractures be knit the old-fashioned "calcium not titanium" way)

that diaz was way more worried about the titanium pipe hitting his skull than Anderson should be about using it

lol ahhhhhh! .. found the mmahour vid ..that shit was funny.