Lost 9/13 bets on favorites, WTF is going on here.

[dunzowtf]

bet history for the past few months:

Loss	12/12/14 Reduced Fighting Rose Namajunas -130* vs Carla Esparza
Loss	12/12/14 UFC Fighting Jeremy Stephens -135* vs Charles Oliveira
Loss	12/12/14 UFC Fighting Randa Markos -115* vs Jessica Penne
Loss	12/6/14 UFC Fighting Eddie Gordon -160* vs Josh Samman
Win		12/6/14 UFC Fighting Travis Browne -300* vs Brendan Schaub
Win				12/6/14 UFC Fighting Urijah Faber -425* vs Francisco Rivera
Loss				11/7/14 UFC Fighting Ross Pearson -170* vs Al Iaquinta
Loss			11/7/14 UFC Fighting Clint Hester -165* vs Robert Whittaker
Loss			11/7/14 UFC Fighting Guto Inocente -185* vs Anthony Perosh
Loss			10/25/14 UFC Fighting Carlos Diego Ferreira -190* vs Beneil Dariush
Win			10/4/14 UFC Fighting Rory MacDonald -550* vs Tarec Saffiedine
Win			10/4/14 11:59pm UFC Fighting Raphael Assuncao -270* vs Bryan Caraway
Loss			9/27/14 11:30pm UFC Fighting Tim Kennedy -105* vs Yoel Romero

In my bets favorites have lost nearly 70% of the time.
I used to pick winners at 85% rate, but this is just blowing my mind.
Started with $800 down to $150.
I think I need to just withdrawl whatever I have left and move on.
Advice? Go all-in tomorrow or just gtfo? I was more confident in the Randa (Judges blew this one) & Rose picks than anything I see on the roster tomorrow.

[Bumdeal]

I know right? How could a favorite lose? THEY ARE THE FAVORITE!

[MD]

How could anyone think Markos beat Penne? Biased much?

[marzwoody]

Use your remaining money and live bet the shit out of it.

[dunzowtf]

markos won rounds 2 and 3, both fighters had top positions in the 3rd but markos had mount, and out-struck her on the feet in both rounds. Penne sitting on top of markos was apparently "more effective" according to the judges. but I digress.

I can't find the article now of course but someone ran the metadata numbers on ufc and found that favorites won like 80% of the time and vegas had picked the correct fights down to the exact same percentage. It just seems astronomical to have 70% losers that are favorites. I'm just really that bad apparently.

[JIBBBY]

Dogs are barking...

[marzwoody]

markos won rounds 2 and 3, both fighters had top positions in the 3rd but markos had mount, and out-struck her on the feet in both rounds. Penne sitting on top of markos was apparently "more effective" according to the judges. but I digress.

I can't find the article now of course but someone ran the metadata numbers on ufc and found that favorites won like 80% of the time and vegas had picked the correct fights down to the exact same percentage. It just seems astronomical to have 70% losers that are favorites. I'm just really that bad apparently.

All those fights you lost i knew could go either way. know when to avoid or go with the dog.

[dunzowtf]

So who wins easily tomorrow?

[Bumdeal]

Penne won 1&3

[mirinquads]

Did Ron Paul teach you to bet?

[Skel]

Poor capping + variance. Also, Kennedy was a slight dog against Romero.

[NunyaBidness]

How could anyone think Markos beat Penne? Biased much?

It's called MD Goggles.

[NunyaBidness]

Poor capping + variance. Also, Kennedy was a slight dog against Romero.

Not over the entire lifecycle of the line, he opened and closed at -133, and flipped to a dog in between.

[marzwoody]

bump.

[Sacrelicious]

bump

[over9000bets]

OP here, sorry forgot to return sooner, lost my old email/pw.

Anyway, if you're bumping because it's entertaining I'll try to keep the show going.
My fear of losing again kept me from betting on any of the JDS/Miocic fights. Which is obviously another big mistake in gambling, but you know, it still seemed like tons of poor lines at the event.
I would have been on JDS/Reem/Mitrione/Dos Anjos, and gone 4/4. Mitrione was the only one with decent odds though. JDS/Reem are not the hard-to-beat fighters they used to be. Gonzaga's boxing had impressed me in his two previous fights as well. Dos Anjos is a killer but I was mad the line dropped from -190 to -300. The fact Diaz beat Cerrone without issue made this not such an obvious win for dos anjos either.

I ended up putting $100 on palahres who beat fitch, wish I had put more on it. Fitch's main strength in grappling would mean absolutely nothing against Palhares, who has arguably one of the best submission games of all time (at least for leg locks).

So I'm up to $250 now.

I made another slightly foolish play, bet the whole bank roll on a 3 way parlay. I went with Machida/Barao/Jon Jones.
It pays better than 1:1, and I think the odds of any of the fighters losing are much smaller than 33%. Let's not forget the massive home field advantage for barao/machida in Brazil. One of the few times where this is actually a factor. Brazil is by far the roudiest place to fight, especially against national heroes like machida/barao.
I think Cormier is the only one with a chance of winning. Which is fine, but I will bet everything I have on jones at -160. I don't care for jones as a person, but as an athlete he seems unstoppable. He will be the mayweather of UFC. Except mayweather gets -1000 odds. Frankly I'm suprised all Jon Jones lines don't come out at -800 like Rousey's because he has yet to lose (Gustafsson rematch is the only one I would avoid betting).

Preview: Jones vs Cormier:
Cormier has great wrestling, and decent striking, jones has the best wrestling and arguably the best striking in the division. Jones also has a habit of attacking a person's strength just to beat them at their own game and make a point. He did it with machida, shogun, glover, belfort, and rashad. Cormier is getting older and slower. Jones has him crushed in age, and reach, and gas tank. Twelve inch reach advantage. It's like fighting the devil on that old boxing video game. Cormier has wins over some of the legends much like jones, but he hasn't fought a young athlete like Gustafsson for example. Mir/Nelson/Henderson is not enough to convince me he can take on Jones yet. I think Jones wins this one by finish, either strikes or submission. He will take the wrestling to Cormier to embarass him, as that's what he loves doing in the octogon.

[Sacrelicious]

bump

[Wilbo86]

bump

Thank god Mr, we´ve all been worried you were banned.

[mirinquads]

OP here, sorry forgot to return sooner, lost my old email/pw.

Anyway, if you're bumping because it's entertaining I'll try to keep the show going.
My fear of losing again kept me from betting on any of the JDS/Miocic fights. Which is obviously another big mistake in gambling, but you know, it still seemed like tons of poor lines at the event.
I would have been on JDS/Reem/Mitrione/Dos Anjos, and gone 4/4. Mitrione was the only one with decent odds though. JDS/Reem are not the hard-to-beat fighters they used to be. Gonzaga's boxing had impressed me in his two previous fights as well. Dos Anjos is a killer but I was mad the line dropped from -190 to -300. The fact Diaz beat Cerrone without issue made this not such an obvious win for dos anjos either.

I ended up putting $100 on palahres who beat fitch, wish I had put more on it. Fitch's main strength in grappling would mean absolutely nothing against Palhares, who has arguably one of the best submission games of all time (at least for leg locks).

So I'm up to $250 now.

I made another slightly foolish play, bet the whole bank roll on a 3 way parlay. I went with Machida/Barao/Jon Jones.
It pays better than 1:1, and I think the odds of any of the fighters losing are much smaller than 33%. Let's not forget the massive home field advantage for barao/machida in Brazil. One of the few times where this is actually a factor. Brazil is by far the roudiest place to fight, especially against national heroes like machida/barao.
I think Cormier is the only one with a chance of winning. Which is fine, but I will bet everything I have on jones at -160. I don't care for jones as a person, but as an athlete he seems unstoppable. He will be the mayweather of UFC. Except mayweather gets -1000 odds. Frankly I'm suprised all Jon Jones lines don't come out at -800 like Rousey's because he has yet to lose (Gustafsson rematch is the only one I would avoid betting).

Preview: Jones vs Cormier:
Cormier has great wrestling, and decent striking, jones has the best wrestling and arguably the best striking in the division. Jones also has a habit of attacking a person's strength just to beat them at their own game and make a point. He did it with machida, shogun, glover, belfort, and rashad. Cormier is getting older and slower. Jones has him crushed in age, and reach, and gas tank. Twelve inch reach advantage. It's like fighting the devil on that old boxing video game. Cormier has wins over some of the legends much like jones, but he hasn't fought a young athlete like Gustafsson for example. Mir/Nelson/Henderson is not enough to convince me he can take on Jones yet. I think Jones wins this one by finish, either strikes or submission. He will take the wrestling to Cormier to embarass him, as that's what he loves doing in the octogon.

You seem to be terrible at capping and understanding fighting scenarios and matchup intangibles. You're a Jibbby level capper.

[JIBBBY]

You're a Jibbby level capper.

What's your idea of a high level capper in MMA? Teach me something new Miri.. Lol...

December I'm still in the green with MMA gambling.. One of the tougher months to gamble on with the holidays and all.. Only had 1 losing month out of 11 so far with MMA this year..

YTD totals I'm golden... Just another successful year of MMA gambling in the books for Jibs.... Business as usual for me...

[MD]

OP here, sorry forgot to return sooner, lost my old email/pw.

Anyway, if you're bumping because it's entertaining I'll try to keep the show going.
My fear of losing again kept me from betting on any of the JDS/Miocic fights. Which is obviously another big mistake in gambling, but you know, it still seemed like tons of poor lines at the event.
I would have been on JDS/Reem/Mitrione/Dos Anjos, and gone 4/4. Mitrione was the only one with decent odds though. JDS/Reem are not the hard-to-beat fighters they used to be. Gonzaga's boxing had impressed me in his two previous fights as well. Dos Anjos is a killer but I was mad the line dropped from -190 to -300. The fact Diaz beat Cerrone without issue made this not such an obvious win for dos anjos either.

I ended up putting $100 on palahres who beat fitch, wish I had put more on it. Fitch's main strength in grappling would mean absolutely nothing against Palhares, who has arguably one of the best submission games of all time (at least for leg locks).

So I'm up to $250 now.

I made another slightly foolish play, bet the whole bank roll on a 3 way parlay. I went with Machida/Barao/Jon Jones.
It pays better than 1:1, and I think the odds of any of the fighters losing are much smaller than 33%. Let's not forget the massive home field advantage for barao/machida in Brazil. One of the few times where this is actually a factor. Brazil is by far the roudiest place to fight, especially against national heroes like machida/barao.
I think Cormier is the only one with a chance of winning. Which is fine, but I will bet everything I have on jones at -160. I don't care for jones as a person, but as an athlete he seems unstoppable. He will be the mayweather of UFC. Except mayweather gets -1000 odds. Frankly I'm suprised all Jon Jones lines don't come out at -800 like Rousey's because he has yet to lose (Gustafsson rematch is the only one I would avoid betting).

Preview: Jones vs Cormier:
Cormier has great wrestling, and decent striking, jones has the best wrestling and arguably the best striking in the division. Jones also has a habit of attacking a person's strength just to beat them at their own game and make a point. He did it with machida, shogun, glover, belfort, and rashad. Cormier is getting older and slower. Jones has him crushed in age, and reach, and gas tank. Twelve inch reach advantage. It's like fighting the devil on that old boxing video game. Cormier has wins over some of the legends much like jones, but he hasn't fought a young athlete like Gustafsson for example. Mir/Nelson/Henderson is not enough to convince me he can take on Jones yet. I think Jones wins this one by finish, either strikes or submission. He will take the wrestling to Cormier to embarass him, as that's what he loves doing in the octogon.

I think you should stop gambling.

[Vaughany]

What's your idea of a high level capper in MMA? Teach me something new Miri.. Lol...

December I'm still in the green with MMA.. One of the tougher months to gamble on with the holidays and all..

YTD totals I'm still golden... Just another successful year of MMA gambling in the books for Jibs.... Business as usual for me...

[Napes21]

You seem to be terrible at capping and understanding fighting scenarios and matchup intangibles. You're a Jibbby level capper.

That was a little excessive no? There was not a single sherdog/wiki link. An apology is owed here me tinks.

[JIBBBY]

I think you should stop gambling.

Or - I suggest OP find and follow proven winners.. Hit twitter for gambling, find and follow, find Vegas hot shots that show their hand regularly, real players that win and have a proven winning track record and a large twitter following. Stay glued, follow and tail 24/7 with every play..

For the first time in my life I'm swallowing my pride completely with NFL gambling - I'm tailing someone full time starting this week.. With the help from someone on this forum Pm'ing me I have found a proven NFL source on twitter.. I surrender and throw up the white flag now..

I can't pick em consistently with NFL and never could...

I don't want to lose money betting NFL football anymore simply put.. Tail or fail time...

[Napes21]

Or - I suggest OP find and follow proven winners.. Hit twitter for gambling, find and follow, find Vegas hot shots that show their hand regularly, real players that win and have a proven winning track record and a large twitter following. Stay glued, follow and tail 24/7 with every play..

For the first time in my life I'm swallowing my pride completely with NFL gambling - I'm tailing someone full time starting this week.. With the help from someone on this forum Pm'ing me I have found a proven NFL source on twitter.. I surrender and throw up the white flag now..

I can't pick em consistently with NFL and never could...

I don't want to lose money betting NFL football anymore simply put.. Tail or fail time...

You all should check out this guy Luca Fury for MMA & NFL. He is incredible.

[JIBBBY]

You all should check out this guy Luca Fury for MMA & NFL. He is incredible.

You can bet your ass if Luca Fury had a proven track record in the NFL better then this guy below I'd be glued to his twitter or web page hourly...

Copy and past off twitter - Current YTD totals...

2014 NFL GAMES TOTAL: 75-33-2 (+40.90u) <s>#</s>NFL

[jacktheknife]

I would have been on JDS/Reem/Mitrione/Dos Anjos, and gone 4/4. Mitrione was the only one with decent odds though.

Joust between cannon ducking his head vs cannon with his chin sticking out, no variance on that one.

Would have been a proud win for sure.

[marzwoody]

betting your whole bank roll on 3 way parlay is only a slightly foolish play?

[Wilbo86]

Parlayed three massive favourites? Is this Luca ghost account?

[PunisherIND]

That was a little excessive no? There was not a single sherdog/wiki link. An apology is owed here me tinks.

[Sacrelicious]

Thank god Mr, we´ve all been worried you were banned.

Who said anything about me being banned???

[mirinquads]

OP here, sorry forgot to return sooner, lost my old email/pw.

Anyway, if you're bumping because it's entertaining I'll try to keep the show going.
My fear of losing again kept me from betting on any of the JDS/Miocic fights. Which is obviously another big mistake in gambling, but you know, it still seemed like tons of poor lines at the event.
I would have been on JDS/Reem/Mitrione/Dos Anjos, and gone 4/4. Mitrione was the only one with decent odds though. JDS/Reem are not the hard-to-beat fighters they used to be. Gonzaga's boxing had impressed me in his two previous fights as well. Dos Anjos is a killer but I was mad the line dropped from -190 to -300. The fact Diaz beat Cerrone without issue made this not such an obvious win for dos anjos either.

I ended up putting $100 on palahres who beat fitch, wish I had put more on it. Fitch's main strength in grappling would mean absolutely nothing against Palhares, who has arguably one of the best submission games of all time (at least for leg locks).

So I'm up to $250 now.

I made another slightly foolish play, bet the whole bank roll on a 3 way parlay. I went with Machida/Barao/Jon Jones.
It pays better than 1:1, and I think the odds of any of the fighters losing are much smaller than 33%. Let's not forget the massive home field advantage for barao/machida in Brazil. One of the few times where this is actually a factor. Brazil is by far the roudiest place to fight, especially against national heroes like machida/barao.
I think Cormier is the only one with a chance of winning. Which is fine, but I will bet everything I have on jones at -160. I don't care for jones as a person, but as an athlete he seems unstoppable. He will be the mayweather of UFC. Except mayweather gets -1000 odds. Frankly I'm suprised all Jon Jones lines don't come out at -800 like Rousey's because he has yet to lose (Gustafsson rematch is the only one I would avoid betting).

Preview: Jones vs Cormier:
Cormier has great wrestling, and decent striking, jones has the best wrestling and arguably the best striking in the division. Jones also has a habit of attacking a person's strength just to beat them at their own game and make a point. He did it with machida, shogun, glover, belfort, and rashad. Cormier is getting older and slower. Jones has him crushed in age, and reach, and gas tank. Twelve inch reach advantage. It's like fighting the devil on that old boxing video game. Cormier has wins over some of the legends much like jones, but he hasn't fought a young athlete like Gustafsson for example. Mir/Nelson/Henderson is not enough to convince me he can take on Jones yet. I think Jones wins this one by finish, either strikes or submission. He will take the wrestling to Cormier to embarass him, as that's what he loves doing in the octogon.

Let me throw you a bone here.

Dos Anjos over Diaz was the easiest pick of the night. Style matchup was awful. How does Diaz beating Cerrone have any bearing on the fight? The fighters are completely different. Diaz heavy on the front leg, Anjos has insane leg kicks. Diaz doesn't ajust well, Anjos is way faster, more athletic and with better hands, transitions and wrestling. How was Diaz gonna win?

I really can't go into the rest, there's so much stupidity in on post, but lets try: Homefield Brazil advantage - doesn't matter a lot, especially with seasoned fighters. Do I even need to tell you that parlay is idiotic? Cormier has great wrestling, but Jones have the best wrestling? What makes you say that? Because he beat a bunch of people old undersized people with limited wrestling, and got taken down by Gus?

On your first post, I was on the other side on all the middle ones you lost. You either don't watch tape, or you have a very poor understanding of the sport. You can't be this sport through pure numbers and be succesful like in many major sports, it doesn't work that way. MMA math doesn't work. Can't be arsed to type anymore.

Also stop going all in on shiet, especially when you think Jones is a better wrestler than Cormier. Fuk sake.

Can't even begin to get into the gambling theory you're slaughtering. You're gonna be broke in no time.

[shabang]

OP here, sorry forgot to return sooner, lost my old email/pw.

Anyway, if you're bumping because it's entertaining I'll try to keep the show going.
My fear of losing again kept me from betting on any of the JDS/Miocic fights. Which is obviously another big mistake in gambling, but you know, it still seemed like tons of poor lines at the event.
I would have been on JDS/Reem/Mitrione/Dos Anjos, and gone 4/4. Mitrione was the only one with decent odds though. JDS/Reem are not the hard-to-beat fighters they used to be. Gonzaga's boxing had impressed me in his two previous fights as well. Dos Anjos is a killer but I was mad the line dropped from -190 to -300. The fact Diaz beat Cerrone without issue made this not such an obvious win for dos anjos either.

I ended up putting $100 on palahres who beat fitch, wish I had put more on it. Fitch's main strength in grappling would mean absolutely nothing against Palhares, who has arguably one of the best submission games of all time (at least for leg locks).

So I'm up to $250 now.

I made another slightly foolish play, bet the whole bank roll on a 3 way parlay. I went with Machida/Barao/Jon Jones.
It pays better than 1:1, and I think the odds of any of the fighters losing are much smaller than 33%. Let's not forget the massive home field advantage for barao/machida in Brazil. One of the few times where this is actually a factor. Brazil is by far the roudiest place to fight, especially against national heroes like machida/barao.
I think Cormier is the only one with a chance of winning. Which is fine, but I will bet everything I have on jones at -160. I don't care for jones as a person, but as an athlete he seems unstoppable. He will be the mayweather of UFC. Except mayweather gets -1000 odds. Frankly I'm suprised all Jon Jones lines don't come out at -800 like Rousey's because he has yet to lose (Gustafsson rematch is the only one I would avoid betting).

Preview: Jones vs Cormier:
Cormier has great wrestling, and decent striking, jones has the best wrestling and arguably the best striking in the division. Jones also has a habit of attacking a person's strength just to beat them at their own game and make a point. He did it with machida, shogun, glover, belfort, and rashad. Cormier is getting older and slower. Jones has him crushed in age, and reach, and gas tank. Twelve inch reach advantage.It's like fighting the devil on that old boxing video game. Cormier has wins over some of the legends much like jones, but he hasn't fought a young athlete like Gustafsson for example. Mir/Nelson/Henderson is not enough to convince me he can take on Jones yet. I think Jones wins this one by finish, either strikes or submission. He will take the wrestling to Cormier to embarass him, as that's what he loves doing in the octogon.

agreed this is horrible..you will lose..Jones will lose...You deserve to lose it all with a stupid ass theory such as jones having better wrestling..you're an idiot. Lose it all, boy!

[PaperTrail07]

Your so Smart MD--must be the only one who knows thats dumb--....whole bankroll LMFAO====its $250-so who really gives a shit....

I think you should stop gambling.

[JIBBBY]

FREE CONTEST FORUM PLAY -

Thought I'd try my bad football luck with the SBR college bowl challenge just for giggles and kicks.. Recent threads like this got my free play juices flowing I guess you can say... Not good with NFL or College American football is Jibs.. Never was thru the years and I know this...

Randomly selected all my bowl plays just the other day without tailing anyone.. Sure enough I went 0-8 out of the gates.. Out of 309 entered in this free contest I am officially in last place...

I think SBR should award a member that finishes in last place in this contest as well as first place. Not easy to hit either side when you think about it... Some of us are just streaky like that...

Check the standings.... Thought to share....

May lose 20 in row.... Check and stay tuned...

309

JIBBBY

0-8-0

0.00 %

L 8

-77.5

-18.17

12 pending