Napes Boxing Thread

[Jim_Gunn]

Judging by their records both Lemieux and Rosado have a lot of KO/TKO wins and losses. Does the under 9½ prop at +140 sound like a good bet instead of picking a winner in a fight like this?

[Jim_Gunn]

The under 9½ rounds prop already got bet down to +125 on 5Dimes. Still +140 on Bookmaker, so I went for it taking into consideration Lemieux's power and Rosado's propensity to cut. Risking $40.00 to win $56.00.

[Beelzebubzy]

I'm thinking about going to this.
Might be able to get cheap tickets.

[Napes21]

humble brag

Didn't mean it that way - was more just venting frustration at my inability to do anything meaningful on there except see the ridiculous lines they post that I am not able to exploit - but I see your point

[Napes21]

The under 9½ rounds prop already got bet down to +125 on 5Dimes. Still +140 on Bookmaker, so I went for it taking into consideration Lemieux's power and Rosado's propensity to cut. Risking $40.00 to win $56.00.

GL Jim

[Jim_Gunn]

Didn't mean it that way - was more just venting frustration at my inability to do anything meaningful on there except see the ridiculous lines they post that I am not able to exploit - but I see your point

One of my betting buddies has a Sportsboook account to take advantage of their sometimes generous underdog lines and juicy openers and he told me the same thing, that they limited his bets right from the start at some ridiculously low amounts like max $50 to win. Not even $50 bets, $50 to win max! What's the point of even having an account there with tiny limits like that?

[Napes21]

Lost on Rosado and the under but cashed on Dulorme, over and Centeno - lot of decent names next weekend but tons of chalk in the lines

[NunyaBidness]

One of my betting buddies has a Sportsboook account to take advantage of their sometimes generous underdog lines and juicy openers and he told me the same thing, that they limited his bets right from the start at some ridiculously low amounts like max $50 to win. Not even $50 bets, $50 to win max! What's the point of even having an account there with tiny limits like that?

I would pay good money to have $50 limits at SB.

[Keyboard Warrior]

I would pay good money to have $50 limits at SB.

I have an account. after the correlated parlay scandal I never used it. Pretty sure my limits are default across the board.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Lost on Rosado and the under but cashed on Dulorme, over and Centeno - lot of decent names next weekend but tons of chalk in the lines

You're probably one of the best boxing gamblers on this board Napes. Do you see Lara, Khan, Bradley or Thurman getting upset? With the exception of Khan they are all chalky. But I really do not see any of them losing including Khan. So what do you see in that crystal ball of yours?

[Napes21]

You're probably one of the best boxing gamblers on this board Napes. Do you see Lara, Khan, Bradley or Thurman getting upset? With the exception of Khan they are all chalky. But I really do not see any of them losing including Khan. So what do you see in that crystal ball of yours?

Lara should take a fairly one sided boring dec. Thurman I've never seen the opponent but imagine this is just another stop on Thurman's journey to a marquee fight - no play for me there. Khan I actually think the line is playable I'm just waiting to see if/how the props open. Alexander doesn't like getting hit in the body and Khan does decent work down there. Alexander also keeps his hands low and relies on his speed but Khan may be just as fast if not faster and should be able to land the straight right. Bradley will probably school Chaves but that is the one fight I may back the dog as a value play. Chaves is no schlub - not as good as Bradley but not a pushover - and in the last Pacman fight Bradley seemed to have his spirit broken. He finished out the fight but in between rounds he didn't seem like his head/heart was in there. With that in mind along with the line and Chaves ability I might drop some money on him there. Waiting as betting public will probably back Bradley and I might be able to get a better price. Also interested in seeing what the prop lines are on this one.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Lara should take a fairly one sided boring dec. Thurman I've never seen the opponent but imagine this is just another stop on Thurman's journey to a marquee fight - no play for me there. Khan I actually think the line is playable I'm just waiting to see if/how the props open. Alexander doesn't like getting hit in the body and Khan does decent work down there. Alexander also keeps his hands low and relies on his speed but Khan may be just as fast if not faster and should be able to land the straight right. Bradley will probably school Chaves but that is the one fight I may back the dog as a value play. Chaves is no schlub - not as good as Bradley but not a pushover - and in the last Pacman fight Bradley seemed to have his spirit broken. He finished out the fight but in between rounds he didn't seem like his head/heart was in there. With that in mind along with the line and Chaves ability I might drop some money on him there. Waiting as betting public will probably back Bradley and I might be able to get a better price. Also interested in seeing what the prop lines are on this one.

Did you watch the Chavez vs Thurman & Rios fights?

[Napes21]

Did you watch the Chavez vs Thurman & Rios fights?

Yeah - he's a dirty Argentinian. If I play him it will be more of a value thing than a bet with any confidence. I fully expect Bradley to school him but if that line climbs I may have to pull the trigger - not saying I would recommend anyone else play him just sharing my thoughts. Maybe I had a bad read on Bradley in the Pacman 2 fight but I was thinking to myself at the time if Bradley is a huge fav his next time out I might fade him. Chaves also had some messed up shit going on with his **** for the Rios fight and almost didn't get in to the states for the fight until like a day or two beforehand. Shouldn't be the case here. Also don't think Bradley has the power to put him away but I guess we'll see.

[Indeep]

Yeah - he's a dirty Argentinian. If I play him it will be more of a value thing than a bet with any confidence. I fully expect Bradley to school him but if that line climbs I may have to pull the trigger - not saying I would recommend anyone else play him just sharing my thoughts. Maybe I had a bad read on Bradley in the Pacman 2 fight but I was thinking to myself at the time if Bradley is a huge fav his next time out I might fade him. Chaves also had some messed up shit going on with his **** for the Rios fight and almost didn't get in to the states for the fight until like a day or two beforehand. Shouldn't be the case here. Also don't think Bradley has the power to put him away but I guess we'll see.

I agree with everything you say, and was also thinking about Chaves as a value play. Bradley is the better boxer and should get the decision, but I love taking the average boxer with power against the guy with no power. Kind of a Shawn Porter vs Magic Man type fight to a degree.

[marzwoody]

Should i go all in on Amir Khan guyz? i heard he punches fast. can someone confirm??

[Napes21]

Should i go all in on Amir Khan guyz? i heard he punches fast. can someone confirm??

He has hands (two of them). Not sure if he can throw them. Will circle back after I figure out my plays - waiting on some books to open.

[marzwoody]

He has hands (two of them). Not sure if he can throw them. Will circle back after I figure out my plays - waiting on some books to open.

Let me know what you come back with. also curious to know if he has a chin, and can bang and hang?

[MD]

khan can bang.... but he can't hang....

he also said on joe roguns podcast that he is planing on retireing in 2-4 more fights....

[Jim_Gunn]

I went with Amir Khan over Devon Alexander at -240, betting $240.00 to win $100.00, Also a smaller play on Erislandy Lara to win a 12 round decision over Ishe Smith at -240, risking $96.00 to win $40.00.

[Napes21]

Plays I've made so far - Lara by UD (line got hammered now though). Have a parlay of Lara dec with Not Bradley ITD. Also split up plays on Khan into Khan UD and Khan UD/TKO. I am going to drop a sprinkle on Chaves at some point but want to see if the line climbs at all first.

[Napes21]

For those of you with the limits and bankroll to make this kind of thing worthwhile you can arb between Mario Lozano on 5D (+2400) and Jermell Charlo on BM/DSI (-2165)

[Jim_Gunn]

There's even boxing action on ESPN2 tomorrow evening with three fights listed on the sports books. The odds on this heavyweight fight are pretty close for boxing nowadays. I haven't been following the sport closely enough to have an opinion on this even though I remember Antonio Tarver. And it's overshadowed by the main event Trout vs Grajeda and other bigger cards this weekend:

Antonio Tarver vs Johnathon Banks are -210/+160 and -170/+145 on 5D and Bookmaker respectively.

[Napes21]

Tarver opened as the dog but I didn't act quick enough to grab it. Don't really have any thoughts on this one as I haven't seen tarver in years and don't know banks. From what I can gather most people expecting tarver to win but for it to be a close fight. Trout should win his fight rather easily.

[marzwoody]

Are you worried about Khan's glass chin Napes?

[marzwoody]

I have been following Khan since he was fighting bums on british tv. really hope he winz and gets to fight Floyd.

[Napes21]

Are you worried about Khan's glass chin Napes?

If he was fighting someone else I might be more concerned. Alexander hasn't shown much power throughout his career and relies more on his speed. He does have a little pop in his counter right hook but not enough that I'd be overly concerned. I'm banking on Khan being faster than him and hitting harder which I expect to bother Alexander. Think Khan will be able to tag him when he chooses and has learned that when he gets uncomfortable he will just start hugging and slow things down. Plus this is a setup fight for a big money match for Khan and with boxing being so corrupt I try to factor the storyline and next fight in line factor into my handicapping when it is likely a fight will hit the cards. They want Khan to win to set up a big money fight with Floyd or one of the other big name welterweights. Alexander is good but has kind of a boring style and lacks the star power needed to be a big draw in my opinion.

[Napes21]

For those that were thinking Tarver tonight (again I have no opinion on this fight) he's looking like he has gotten a little comfortable:

[marzwoody]

So Khan and Lara are lockz?

[Napes21]

So Khan and Lara are lockz?

I don't want to ever call anyone a lock but I "locked" in my plays on them because I like them to win for what that's worth. Think there is value in the plays I made - no such thing as a true lock in this thing we do (except for Jon Jones when they were feeding him MW's).

[PunisherIND]

I don't want to ever call anyone a lock but I "locked" in my plays on them because I like them to win for what that's worth. Think there is value in the plays I made - no such thing as a true lock in this thing we do (except for Jon Jones when they were feeding him MW's).

even that's not a lock. lost to hammil and would have lost to shael if he survived 30 more seconds.

[Napes21]

even that's not a lock. lost to hammil and would have lost to shael if he survived 30 more seconds.

Woulda sliced Chael's throat open with his protruding toe bone if it went another 30 seconds - - but yes I hear you. Shit, even sometimes when you win a bet it's still not a lock - see under 2.5 in Strong Island Al v. Damm.

[marzwoody]

Mayweather is a lock! TBE!

[ANGRYBLACK]

Banks SU 200/300...

[Jim_Gunn]

My boxing action for this weekend. I tailed more knowledgeable bettors on Banks as an underdog against 46 year old Antonio Tarver on ESPN2 tonight, but I'm fairly confident in the other favorites and props:

Johnathon Banks (+130) vs Antonio Tarver $40.00 for $52.00
Erislandy Lara wins by 12 round decision (-240) $96.00 for $40.00
Amir Khan (-240) vs Devon Alexander $240.00 for $100.00
Timothy Bradley wins by KO/TKO/DQ or UD (-171) vs Diego Gabriel Chaves $171.00 for $100.00

[Napes21]

GL Jim. Threw a little token wager on Banks dec myself. This weekend is insane with two UFC's, WSOF, and 4 boxing cards.