UFC 179: Aldo vs. Mendes 2 (October 25, 2014)

[JIBBBY]

A few Props I like and bet on..

Stinger/Maldo 2 1/2 under +160
Aldo/Mendes fight won't go the distance -135
Ferreria wins by submission +335

[plekz]

I think Stringer vs Maldonado will be a sloppy decision affair.

If Mendes v Aldo ends inside the distance it'll be because Mendes got overly aggressive and paid for it, Aldo will be more then happy to just coast another decision.

If Ferreria is to win by SUB it's because he hurt Dariush and followed him down to the ground, i see that fight going the distance more often i do a finish. And if it's a finish i think it'll be Dariush KO/TKO'ing Ferreria because of his sloppy striking.

[JIBBBY]

Probably so Plekz^^^

A few more long shot props with decent value that caught my eye... I played some as back up and the rest just really small to see if one or two of them sticks..

Mendes wins by KO/TKO +600
Reis win by KO/TKO +880
Davis win by TKO/KO +2070
Davis wins in 3rd round +3600
Maldonaldo wins in 3rd round +1055
Glover Tex wins by KO/TKO +230
Ferreria wins in 1st round +350

I am certainly sharing all bets I have going on with this card this go around.... Hope I come out on top!!!

[Jim_Gunn]

My plays for UFC 179 tonight:

UFC 179 Risk $828.75

Jose Aldo (-210) vs Chad Mendes $210.00 for $100.00
Davis/Teixeira Over 2½ (-175) $87.50 for $50.00
Fabio Maldonado (-120) vs Hans Stringer $48.00 for $40.00
Darren Elkins (-180) vs Lucas Martins $72.00 for $40.00
Carlos Diego Ferreira (-215) vs Beneil Dariush $86.00 for $40.00

Magny/Macario Over 2½ (-195) $78.00 for $40.00
Cabral wins by submission (+151) $30.00 for $45.30
Wilson Reis (-175) vs Scott Jorgensen $70.00 for $40.00
Andre Fili (-135) vs Felipe Arantes $54.00 for $40.00

Giagos/Burns won't start round 3 (-133) $33.25 for $25.00
Tony Martin (+100) vs Fabricio Camoes $40.00 for $40.00

Carlos Diego Ferreira wins Fastest KO (+1050) $10.00 for $105.00
Tony Martin wins Fastest SUB (+950) $10.00 for $95.00

[Vaughany]

Probably so Plekz^^^

A few more long shot props with decent value that caught my eye... I played some as back up and the rest just really small to see if one or two of them sticks..

Mendes wins by KO/TKO +600
Reis win by KO/TKO +880
Davis win by TKO/KO +2070
Davis wins in 3rd round +3600
Maldonaldo wins in 3rd round +1055
Glover Tex wins by KO/TKO +230
Ferreria wins in 1st round +350

I am certainly sharing all bets I have going on with this card this go around.... Hope I come out on top!!!

Davis by tko should probably be +450000

[JIBBBY]

^^ Jimmy you had the hot hand last night..

I'm with ya on the Elkins and Ferreira.. I like those 2 straight win bets alot..

[Wilbo86]

My plays for UFC 179 tonight:
Tony Martin wins Fastest SUB (+950) $10.00 for $95.00

Got that as well.

[JIBBBY]

Davis by tko should probably be +450000

I said long shots V... I agree that Davis doesn't have the one punch power to drop Glover Tex standing.. He could land a head kick by chance though..

I was really thinking by miracle Davis grounds and pounds the crap out of Glover Tex in the first 2 rounds and then eventually pounds him out in the 3rd for a TKO finish.. Then the Davis wins in round 3 prop lands also at +3600... It's all a super long shot but the odds I think are still favorable for betting pennies..

I'm on Glover Tex so those props are back up more or less... Think I put 10 bucks on each prop.. What ever....

[John Bugara]

I have:

2.5 on Jose Aldo @ -218

2 on Neil Magny @ -201

1 on Dariush Ferreira Under 2.5 @ +105

1 on Hans Stringer @ +103

1 On Wilson Reis @ -194 (shit price)

.5 on Lucas Martins @ +155

.5 on Phil Davis +256

Not the best prices on a lot of these guys but I feel pretty good about them for the most part. Will also probably put a straight .5 unit on Dariush to win depending how he looks during the walkout haha. He got me paid last time, and I also made a play on Rafael Dos Anjos vs Benson because he guarantee'd victory :P Good luck tonight everyone!

[Napes21]

Mendes in round 5 might not be a bad insurance policy for any Aldo backers - case Mendes survives the early rounds, Aldo gasses and Mendes brings it to him in the 5th like Hominick - +2725 - I took a little bit just in case - big on a lot of favs tonight (Aldo, Glover, CDF, Reis/Over, Burns) - only dog I got is Stringer - feeling like a square - at least beat the closing lines (or current lines I should say)

[JIBBBY]

Mendes in round 5 might not be a bad insurance policy for any Aldo backers - case Mendes survives the early rounds, Aldo gasses and Mendes brings it to him in the 5th like Hominick - +2725 - I took a little bit just in case - big on a lot of favs tonight (Aldo, Glover, CDF, Reis/Over, Burns) - only dog I got is Stringer - feeling like a square - at least beat the closing lines (or current lines I should say)

I don't like betting round bets in a 5 round fight unless it's heavy hitting HW's... It's a 1-5 chance just for starters.. I prefer the 3 round bouts. 1-3 chance with that... The finish in round odds are usually still pretty good in those 3 rounders when compared to the 5 rounders I think also..

Just a thought...

[areallycoolguy]

@plekz totally agree.

[UncleChael]

$500 aldo, magny, and elkins parlay. You're welcome!

[Bava]

I don't like betting round bets in a 5 round fight unless it's heavy hitting HW's... It's a 1-5 chance just for starters.. I prefer the 3 round bouts. 1-3 chance with that... The finish in round odds are usually still pretty good in those 3 rounders when compared to the 5 rounders I think also..

Just a thought...

Check your numbers, Jibbbbbbs

[NunyaBidness]

I don't like betting round bets in a 5 round fight unless it's heavy hitting HW's... It's a 1-5 chance just for starters.. I prefer the 3 round bouts. 1-3 chance with that... The finish in round odds are usually still pretty good in those 3 rounders when compared to the 5 rounders I think also..

Jesus Christ. You do realize its not even close to a uniform distribution?

[Bava]

Jesus Christ. You do realize its not even close to a uniform distribution?

Or that it may not end in any of the rounds?

[areallycoolguy]

i got...

1u stringer
2u cabral and aldo
2u reis, burns, fili
and some a couple small plays on dariush, davis and macario

thinking about a little bit on mendes under the distance at +500 or better as it is right now

[Crassus]

I'm all about that Reis inside the distance and by submission. Also got some Aldo ML and ITD plays, Dariush and a tiny bit on Texeira by sub.

[JIBBBY]

Jesus Christ. You do realize its not even close to a uniform distribution?

I see it differently then you and Bava.. It does vary with each fight and sometimes some round bet odds are better then others but I tend to stay away from betting the late rounds finish bets in 5 round bouts.. 1-5 chance if the fight doesn't go to decision or the other fighter wins is what I ment..

I should have explained my reasoning more.. I could go on but it's fight time.. I know what I'm talking about..

[Napes21]

Or that it may not end in any of the rounds?

Or that it may not be ended by the fighter you pick in that round? I normally avoid those but have a lot on Aldo and the one thing I'm worried about is him gassing horribly and Mendes starting to bring it on in the 4th and then finishing in the 5th so I threw a pittance down on that just in case. Won't nearly cover the losses I'll see if that happens but will remove some of the sting.

[JIBBBY]

Ok here we go!!!!!!

[Sacrelicious]

How many units do you guys have on the Davids/Tex draw?

[NunyaBidness]

I see it differently then you and Bava.. It does vary with each fight and sometimes some round bet odds are better then others but I tend to stay away from betting the late rounds finish bets in 5 round bouts.. 1-5 chance if the fight doesn't go to decision or the other fighter wins is what I ment..

I should have explained my reasoning more.. I could go on but it's fight time.. I know what I'm talking about..

So other than the fact that its only if that fighter wins ITD, and you admit that finishes aren't distributed evenly, whats the point of saying its 1 in 5?

[NunyaBidness]

Or that it may not be ended by the fighter you pick in that round? I normally avoid those but have a lot on Aldo and the one thing I'm worried about is him gassing horribly and Mendes starting to bring it on in the 4th and then finishing in the 5th so I threw a pittance down on that just in case. Won't nearly cover the losses I'll see if that happens but will remove some of the sting.

He probably just lets Mendez lay on top of him and gives up the point.

[Wilbo86]

So other than the fact that its only if that fighter wins ITD, and you admit that finishes aren't distributed evenly, whats the point of saying its 1 in 5?

It is one in five, except all five parts are different sizes and don't sum to 1.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Tony

[Crassus]

Camoes confirmed for worst BJJ black belt around. Subbed twice in a row and couldn't sub Melvin Guillard. Damn.

[Skel]

Reis -165, Reis sub +364, Magny -200, Elkins/Martins o2.5 -135

[JIBBBY]

Tony Martin wins Fastest SUB (+950) $10.00 for $95.00

It's got a chance....


Let's go Gilbert Burns.. The hype train...

[Jim_Gunn]

It's got a chance....

Yes sir, it sure does!

[NunyaBidness]

It's got a chance....

Twas a good call.

A chance is understating it, it's probably about a -400 favorite now.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

Any live dogs in this card?

[Skel]

Two round one armlock finishes!

[JIBBBY]

Twas a good call.

A chance is understating it, it's probably about a -400 favorite now.

Alot of ground Jits guys on this card.. Gilbert just finished later in the round...

[NunyaBidness]

Alot of ground Jits guys on this card.. Gilbert just finished later in the round...

What about the standing jits guys?