UFC 178: Johnson vs. Cariaso (September 27, 2014)

[JIBBBY]

Alvarez is a can.

Alvarez isn't a can but I think he's running into a buzz saw fighting Cowboy.. Cowboy Cerrone I think is fighting at his best right now. He's been very active lately and just killing it in his last 4 fights.... Don't think he's gonna be letting off the gas in this fight either.. That's a scary thought...

With ya on this Marz.. Chalk it up, Cowboy for the win!!!!http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Donald-Cerrone-15105

[marzwoody]

The only lock on this card is Poirier to beat McGregor.

[Beelzebubzy]

The only lock on this card is Poirier to beat McGregor.

Poirer by Sub +940

[MD]

My thoughts are that Kennedy wears down Romero as the fight continues with his pace and cardio and just basically beats Romero on points standing... Avoids the take downs after the 1st round... It should be a competitive fight regardless.. With that being said - I really like this fight to go the distance more then anything else to be honest..

How big would you say Kennedy's striking advantage is? If you were Kennedy's coach, how would you gameplan for Romero?

[Bava]

JIB_Gunn has spoken.



Disagree with you a bit. Romero's ability to double-leg Tavares has very little to do with his ability to stop Kennedy from bodylocking him. If Kennedy gets someone down, they're probably not getting back up, but Romero is excellent in this area, so who knows. I'm not necessarily saying that there isn't value on Romero, though. Still watching tape on that one.

Conor should be -500; Poirier will look silly in this fight.

I'll have to do some re-watching as well, but when I first saw the Tavares fight, i got a strong impression that Romero was/is much more willing to use his wrestling offensively than in his previous UFC fights. Kennedy has a bit of a weak spot for hefty aggro grapplers, and the best way to keep him from getting that bodylock isn't to fight him off on the feet (Bisping), but to put him on his back before he can do the same. Romero seems to fit the bill here, but it does depend on what version shows up, because his striking isn't fast or strong enough to keep Kennedy from glomming onto him for very long.

Conor made Brimage look silly, which isn't hard to do because he dresses like a goddam cyborg. He made Brandao look silly, but Brandao had already lost the fight by the end of the the weigh-ins, in one of the clearest and most decisive instances of psychological warfare you'll ever see in MMA. My pick is definitely Conor, but I can't see Poirier getting blown out like those two...

[JIBBBY]

How big would you say Kennedy's striking advantage is? If you were Kennedy's coach, how would you gameplan for Romero?

I'll let Kennedy himself explain his game plan rather then me trying..http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2014/9/18...-down-mma-news

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Good call on Mark Hunt Ronny by the way... I should have listened to ya in the PM's as you were calling that fight from the very start!!!. Keep up the hot winning steak....

9 hrs. of sleep + Alpha Brain + Provigil = Unstoppable!

[FightFightFight]

I'll let Kennedy himself explain his game plan rather then me trying..http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2014/9/18...-down-mma-news

Wow. Views his wins over Bisping and Gracie as destruction and murder respectively. Slight exaggeration there.

[MD]

Wow. Views his wins over Bisping and Gracie as destruction and murder respectively. Slight exaggeration there.

"I want to beat him on the feet. I'm a much more technical striker. I have very good head defense." - Tim Kennedy

I called it years ago, Kennedy is an even better striker than Vitor. Kennedy by wheel kick KO.

[Das Jax]

Wow. Views his wins over Bisping and Gracie as destruction and murder respectively. Slight exaggeration there.

I don't remember the Bisping fight, but the Gracie fight was a pretty brutal domination. He overcame a significant reach disadvantage to dominate the striking... and then proceeded to outgrapple him on the ground as well. Definitely wasn't a highlight in the Gracie family's legacy.

[JIBBBY]

Poirer by Sub +940

At +640 now.. Your post was a line mover!!!.. Shhhhhh...

At +940 I would have gave that the ole college try for a few pennies..

[MD]

I don't remember the Bisping fight, but the Gracie fight was a pretty brutal domination. He overcame a significant reach disadvantage to dominate the striking... and then proceeded to outgrapple him on the ground as well. Definitely wasn't a highlight in the Gracie family's legacy.

"He overcame a significant reach disadvantage to dominate the striking" may be the most inappropriate praise ever bestowed upon a Roger Gracie opponent.

[Keyboard Warrior]

MD what is your account on sherdog? I cant find it

[Beelzebubzy]

At +640 now.. Your post was a line mover!!!.. Shhhhhh...

At +940 I would have gave that the ole college try for a few pennies..

line moved way before i posted it.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

At +640 now.. Your post was a line mover!!!.. Shhhhhh...

At +940 I would have gave that the ole college try for a few pennies..

Nothing but money down the toilet. McGregor via sub +1440, McGregor Itd -107 & McGregor wins in the 2nd round +450! All 3 are going to cash!! Believe it!!!

[Keyboard Warrior]

+940 to +640 is not a major line move. Leave it to jibbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbby to be horrible at 2nd grade math

[MD]

MD what is your account on sherdog? I cant find it

Try searching for "Vaughany".

[Keyboard Warrior]

found it haha vaughany is on sherdog

[mmaed]

JIB_Gunn has spoken.



Disagree with you a bit. Romero's ability to double-leg Tavares has very little to do with his ability to stop Kennedy from bodylocking him. If Kennedy gets someone down, they're probably not getting back up, but Romero is excellent in this area, so who knows. I'm not necessarily saying that there isn't value on Romero, though. Still watching tape on that one.

Conor should be -500; Poirier will look silly in this fight.

Once brunson got romero down he was able to control him and keep him down. He even got into full mount iirc. This would be my main fear if i were on romero.

[mmaed]

My thoughts are that Kennedy wears down Romero as the fight continues with his pace and cardio and just basically beats Romero on points standing... Avoids the take downs after the 1st round... It should be a competitive fight regardless.. With that being said - I really like this fight to go the distance more then anything else to be honest..

What makes you think romero has cardio issues?

[mmaed]

For the record im looking to bet stephen thompson and jorge masvidal pending further research. I am hoping to get thompson as a dog.

[JIBBBY]

What makes you think romero has cardio issues?

You said that about Hunt.. Maybe I should listen to you this time around... I'm stubborn though and hard headed....

Kennedy is more experienced and Greg Jackson is in his corner.. Hard to bet against that...

[mmaed]

Plenty of people lose with greg jackson in their corner. Hes a good coach but there are many good coaches and many good teams. You also have to consider that he happens to get a lot of credit for the performances of a lot of fighters that would be great at any camp. Do you think gsp or jon jones wouldnt be dominant elsewhere? How would weidman fair if he left serra longo? Would anderson silva not have had a long title reign at another team?

Another x factor is romeros improvement. Who knows how much he has improved since he was last put in a bad position by a skilled wrestler. He fought brunson almost a year ago and even though he was losing he still managed to rally and win in the end. He is one of best athletes alive. I am sure we are goiing to see him improve at a rate other fighters cant compare to because of it. The biggest variable is what your going to get out of Yoel Romero.

[mmaed]

You said that about Hunt.. Maybe I should listen to you this time around... I'm stubborn though and hard headed....

Kennedy is more experienced and Greg Jackson is in his corner.. Hard to bet against that...

Romero is very good at pacing himself which compensates for what i think is a large weight cut.

[JIBBBY]

Keep posting mmead... I like what I read from you!!!!.

Lotta ifs still with Romero. Did you watch the UFC Tonight show? Kennedy was interviewed and pretty much said what I linked up in that article read..

Romero is a beast but only has 9 professional fights under his belt..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Yoel-Romero-60762

Kennedy is a physical specimen also with 22 pro fights.. He has never been KO'd in his MMA career.. His 3 real losses have all come by way of decision and one by cut... Distance bet might be the play in this one.. Over 2 1/2 rounds -145...

I just don't think the 37 year Romero can match the furious pace and experience of Kennedy for 3 rounds.. Combine these thoughts with Kennedy's camp training, coaching and experience and for me it's just damn hard to bet against all that in this match up.. Especially being that Kennedy is the dog going in at +128

DC said Romero has the best MMA wrestling in the sport so you never know though.. Kennedy may end up on his back for the entire fight or possibly get KO'd for the first time.. Not likely though in either case scenario...

[mmaed]

Personally I think Romero will have a tough time ko'ing Kennedy. When you say you dont think romero can keep up his pace at 37 do you take into consideration what a freak athlete he is? Hes clearly not a normal 37 year old...

[Sacrelicious]

Why in the holy name of f-ck is Kennedy a dog here?

Also, who is Eddie Alvarez?

[Ron_Paul_2012]

When are the rest of the lines coming out for this card!!!!!!!! Arhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[JIBBBY]

^^ Gotta give it some time Ronny.. Patience is a virtue so they say...... Something I know nothing about..

I got still try and crack some of these early prelim fights.. Still on the fence on a couple of them. Get around to that later..

[Ron_Paul_2012]

^^ Gotta give it some time Ronny.. Patience is a virtue so they say...... Something I know nothing about..

I got still try and crack some of these early prelim fights.. Still on the fence on a couple of them. Get around to that later..

Homework should have been done by now Jibster. Had the undercard done 4 days ago. I'm now just waiting to pounce on the opening lines.

[JIBBBY]

Homework should have been done by now Jibster. Had the undercard done 4 days ago. I'm now just waiting to pounce on the opening lines.

Good work Ron!!! I get around to it eventually.....

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Since last night I've been checking in on 5Dimes every 15 minutes for the openers. Thought they would get posted around 15 hrs. ago. However, I did get some sleep. I was pleasantly surprised that when I woke up the lines were not yet posted.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

I almost always hit the 5dimes openers. After that or if I miss the openers I wait till Bookmakers lines get posted because they are usually better than 5dimes by that point in time. I do not use my Bovada account as much as the other 2. However, every once in a while something really good presents itself. GL Jibster.

[PunisherIND]

Since last night I've been checking in on 5Dimes every 15 minutes for the openers. Thought they would get posted around 15 hrs. ago. However, I did get some sleep. I was pleasantly surprised that when I woke up the lines were not yet posted.

c'mahn rahn, you should know undercard lines usually get posted on tuesday.

[JIBBBY]

I do not use my Bovada account as much as the other 2. However, every once in a while something good presents itself. GL Jibster.

Bovada actually had better straight bet lines then 5dimes for this last UFC event..

Flip side just today - 5dimes had a much better football line for MNF.. -1 point 5 dimes and -3 at Bovada.. I was surprised to see that.. I always compare before placing.. If all the lines are reasonably close in nature then I place on all 3 accounts evenly anyways...