Fight Night 18 [April 01]

[chrisharvard01]

I'm taking

CARMELO MERRERO (+350)

over

RYAN BADER






FIGHT NIGHT 18: CONDIT vs KAMPMANN

APRIL 1st, 2009



I don't think BADER is as badass as everyone thinks.

WILSON GOUVEIA defeated MERRERO on a 3rd round submission... but GOUVEIA is solid! He went three rounds with NATE MARQUARDT, who is better than all fighters described here IMO.


BADER hasn't got it. If BADER wins this fight it will have to be by a quick KO. BADER will not out-grapple MERRERO. The public thinks this guy is so good-- I'm not convinced. BADER hasn't proved himself to me yet, and I think the public's idea of this guy is why the lines so high. -550 is crazy! At best BADER should be -2 something simply because MERRERO has gotten beat twice on the big UFC stage...


This fight will go all three rounds.


MERRERO BY DECISION







Also on the agenda;

MARTIN KAMPMANN (-105)
def
CARLOS CONDIT
CONDIT, (23-4) has an impressive record...of independent fighters of which I'm not aware/impressed.

KAMPMANN to KO CONDIT in R1


(NO PLAY- possible fade)
COLE MILLER (-115)
def
JULIE BROWNING



(NO PLAY)
TYSON GRIFFIN (-350)
def
RAFAEL DOS ANJOS




Notes;
CARMELLO may win by KO or SUBMISSION.

GRIFFIN is a NO PLAY because I just don't like backing him, and it's not worthwhile for me. ANJOS seems to be going down a bad stretch in his career. I see him losing. Staying away!


Do not tail me if you can't afford to pay the piper if sh!t goes south. Sh!t happens. Capping/projecting is hard, heckling and b!tching is easy, so f!ck off!!!

[The HOFF]

I like Kampmann to win as well, but Condit is no slouch. He is very good with submissions and has decent striking. Kampmann is better on the feet but I think Condit has the edge on the ground.

[shady610]

bader will win. His wrestling pace will be too much for the lay-n-pray veteran.

I havent seen too much of condit, but i hear he is the real deal. Kampan isnt too impressive for me so my uneducated pick is condit.

Im taking Cole miller. but not because of anything i handicapped, but because i hate Junie browning.

And Tyson Griffin is the only fighter i would never bet a fight he was in. He is good enough to beat anyone but is also capable to lose to anyone. Since he NEVER finsishes a fight, a judge score card can go either way and that is too risky to bet on

[chrisharvard01]

Line movement for BADER/MARRERO:

BADER:
open -325
current -500

MARRERO
open +260
current +350

[brooks85]

Marrero definitely worth a unit.

[chrisharvard01]

Locked in MERRERO at +350

I'm willing to take a shot on this one. BADER just hasn't proven himself to me. I will not be shocked if MERRERO doesn't win, but at these odds it's worth the risk.


I'm going to lay off C MILLER.


I may stick with KAMPMANN if he actually moves to EVEN-- everyone is pounding CONDIT, I think this fight has a good chance of being over quickly. Should be a great fight!

[The HOFF]

Carlos Condit +110
Martin Kampmann -140

Carmelo Marrero +325
Ryan Bader -425

Junie Browning +105
Cole Miller -135

Rafael Dos Anjos +310
Tyson Griffin -410

Tim Mckenzie +155
Aaron Simpson -195

Matt Horwich +245
Ricardo Almeida -305

Steve Steinbess +135
Ryan Jensen -165

Jesse Sanders +600
Brock Larson -800

Nissen Osterneck +135
Jorge Rivera -165

Jeremy Stephens +155
Gleison Tibau -195

Joe Vedepo +195
Rob Kimmons -245

Nick Catone -115
Tim Credeur -115

[Hells Kitchen]

Junie at + cake is a nice bet.
Dude has gasout issues though.
And would be tough for me to put down on this arrogant piece of fecal matter. Tough lad though.

[Skanless1]

Condit is nice.. don't overlook this guy. I've seen a number of his WEC fights, and he brings it... looks skinny/frail but has skills and is intense. i think there's good value w/him.

bader: i have no f'in clue what to think of him.

i hate junie also, but can't take miller too seriously after watching him on ultimate fighter.

tyson griffin should win by knockout, but who knows.