Hioki + 165 against Oliveira

[Eworth1986]

Pretty shocked to see Hioki such a big dog here , or a dog at all in this fight. Don't see how Charles wins this one , although he's been looking better lately . 3 unit bet on Hioki ,
a win here will get him a nice fight on the Japan card . This is a Taylor made fiight for him

UFC Fight Night 43 - Featherweight 3 rounds - Vector Arena - Auckland, New Zealand - UFC.tv
Sat 6/28 1201 Hatsu Hioki +165 o2½ -255
5:30AM 1202 Charles Oliveira -190 u2½ +195

[Eworth1986]

Adding

Parlay (3 picks)Hatsu Hioki +160 Ricardo "The Bully" Lamas -200 Cub Swanson -240
Risk US$ 50.00
To WinUS$ 226.25


Parlay (4 picks)Hatsu Hioki +160 Ricardo "The Bully" Lamas -200 Cub Swanson -240 Antonio Braga Neto -150
Risk US$ 25.00
To WinUS$ 205.21

[mirinquads]

How so?

[gabe]

You really don't see how Charles wins this one? LOL

Via submission, homie.

[MD]

You really don't see how Charles wins this one? LOL

Via submission, homie.

Oliveira's not better on the ground than Hioki, though. He has better finishing instincts and is more aggressive, but Hioki's ground game is ridiculous. Oliveira can get the sub, but I think it's rare.

[Beelzebubzy]

Hioki Decision +215

[jacktheknife]

You really don't see how Charles wins this one? LOL

Via Hioki being a lethargic douche.

[MD]

Hioki Decision +215

Really dislike it. It's fine in a vacuum, but you have to think Hioki finishes <6% in order to take this line over Hioki straight, which is ridiculous, IMO, considering how flaky Oliveira is and how brutal Hioki's bodyshots are.

[gabe]

Oliveira's not better on the ground than Hioki, though. He has better finishing instincts and is more aggressive, but Hioki's ground game is ridiculous. Oliveira can get the sub, but I think it's rare.

not a better wrestler but has better jitz. i think his chances of getting a sub are decent, as long as the fight hits the mat

[PaperTrail07]

Edgar didn't finish Oliveira --Either will Hioki...Oliveira by sub or decision will land more strikes and be durbale

[Vaughany]

Oliveira's not better on the ground than Hioki, though. He has better finishing instincts and is more aggressive, but Hioki's ground game is ridiculous. Oliveira can get the sub, but I think it's rare.

Is Hioki's ground game as ridiculous as Sam Sicilias though?

[jacktheknife]

Edgar didn't finish Oliveira --Either will Hioki...Oliveira by sub or decision will land more strikes and be durbale

Frankie's my favorite but since when is he a finisher?

[PaperTrail07]

Oliveira's losses.....Edgar, Swanson, Cowboy, and Jim Miller.....we adding Hioki to this list?!? ....I think NO...

[PaperTrail07]

True...Just like to see that he hung in there for the long haul

Frankie's my favorite but since when is he a finisher?

[Eworth1986]

Hioki is the much more physically imposing persong ( grappling wise ) . Grappling wise its a exciting matchup, but I really see Hioki winning at least two rounds. Charles might get a sweep or takedown himself to get some top game going, late in a round a steal one, but I really love this matchup for Hioki. Don't see Oliveira being able to deal with the mat wrestling, grappling and heavy hips of Hioki. Plus in 3 of Oliveira's 4 losses, he has been finished( a bit chinny) . Meanwhile Hioki has never been finished in his career. Should be a fun fight !!!Good Luck to all,
ill eat a slice if I'm dead wrong

[Eworth1986]

Sorry for the F up in the second sentence , makes for a hard read

[PaperTrail07]

All good...yeah I just see those sweeps happening easy when he tries to tie up and gets over aggressive walking in...

[Beelzebubzy]

Really dislike it. It's fine in a vacuum, but you have to think Hioki finishes <6% in order to take this line over Hioki straight, which is ridiculous, IMO, considering how flaky Oliveira is and how brutal Hioki's bodyshots are.

Good point

[Dwil125]

hioki +3.5

[mirinquads]

Do bronx is more dynamic and more active with his striking. Hioki looks very stiff but techincal, i don't think the judges particularly like his striking style. I also think Bronx will win the stirking with sheer activity. They are comparable on the ground, though Do bronx is more active there as well, throwing up a lot of sub attempts, which has cost him before. I think this is probably the most likely way if the fight finishes, Hioki by sub. Though i see a 29-28 decision for Do Bronx in this one. Only if Hioki gets it to the ground can he win by top control or possibly sub, but I see him get outworked in this one. He was a great bet at +200 though.

[Vaughany]

I like tht term "stirking"!

[mirinquads]

Yes i rate their ability to make stirfry as well, that's how thorough of a capper i am

[Vaughany]

lol stirkin is the new twerkin!

[gabe]

Hioki is the much more physically imposing persong ( grappling wise ) . Grappling wise its a exciting matchup, but I really see Hioki winning at least two rounds. Charles might get a sweep or takedown himself to get some top game going, late in a round a steal one, but I really love this matchup for Hioki. Don't see Oliveira being able to deal with the mat wrestling, grappling and heavy hips of Hioki. Plus in 3 of Oliveira's 4 losses, he has been finished( a bit chinny) . Meanwhile Hioki has never been finished in his career. Should be a fun fight !!!Good Luck to all,
ill eat a slice if I'm dead wrong

Oliveira is more active from bottom than Hioki is from top

[Keyboard Warrior]

[TheCalculator]

Oliveira is more active from bottom than Hioki is from top

Judges rarely give a fawk about this.

[Eworth1986]

Oliveira is more active from bottom than Hioki is from top

judges dont usually score it for the guy on bottom even if hes the one doing all the damage,

[JIBBBY]

With PaperTrail07 on this one - I had to go with Oliveira too... 4 Units -190..

Write ups - (copy and paste)

Oliveira (17-4, 1 no-contest) choked out Andy Ogle in his last UFC appearance, bouncing back to the win column following back-to-back losses to Cub Swanson and Frankie Edgar. With the win, Oliveira is now 3-2 since dropping down to 145 pounds.
Hioki (27-7-2) had his back against the wall at TUF: China Finale card in March, but secured a unanimous decision victory over Ivan Menjivar after suffering consecutive decision losses to Ricardo Lamas, Clay Guida and Darren Elkins in the UFC.
Headlined by a middleweight bout between Nate Marquardt and James Te Huna, the first UFC Fight Night card in New Zealand takes place at the Vector Arena, Auckland, on June 28.

More of the same -

Oliveira (17-4, 1 NC) was able to snap a two-fight losing streak by strangling Andy Ogle at UFC Fight Night 38 last February in Brazil. After a hot start to his lightweight career, "Do Bronx" dropped down to 145 pounds with mixed results, but at just 24 years old, has plenty of time to work the kinks out.
That might not hold true for his 30-year-old opponent.

Hioki (27-7-2) was on the chopping block after dropping three consecutive fights under the ZUFFA banner. Fortunately, he was able to remain competitive in all three losses and had a chance to redeem himself against Ivan Menjivar, which he did, by outpointing "The Pride of El Salvador" earlier this year in Macao.
Can he do likewise against the dangerous Brazilian grappler?

[Unwritten Law]

Hioki all day.

[Beelzebubzy]

Is Hioki due for a sub win?

[Rubber Guard]

Tough call here. Surprised at how thr line opened. In my quick opinion they got it right.

Many possibilities. To me Charles has one of the hardest to deal with guards in the ufc. Will the ref let Hioki lay? Would Hioki be able to lay while legs are going all over the place? Is Charles Oliveria improving consistantly fight to fight? Will hr get hit and fold? Will the judges award Hioki in a close fight?

I have overrated Oliveria his whole ufc career. But i dont think I am overrating his silly guard. But at the same time I may be underrating Hioki's ability to nuetralize on top.

[Jim_Gunn]

I bet Hioki at +190. Definitely a good value here since Oliveira is good but inconsistent.

[bjpenn85]

so who do you side with?

[Rubber Guard]

Me? I side with stay away. Oliveria wins in my opinion but I thought the price would be better.

Is Oliveria inconsistant or is he just a kid who was fighting top 10 lws when hr was weak as hell fot the class? I dont think losing to Cerrone or Miller as a 22 year old is much to go on. At 145 he lost to 2 top 5 guys. The matchmaking is weird. I dont rate Hioki anywhere near those guys. But styles make fights and if Oliveria relys on his guard and or Hioki is relentless to get it to the ground then it could be a tough fight.

The more I think about it the more I see split dec written all over it.

[Eworth1986]

6/28/2014 5:30 AM UFC Fighting 1201 Hatsu Hioki* +165 vs Charles Oliveira 6/28/2014 11:59 PM UFC Fighting 2002 Cub Swanson* -255 vs Jeremy Stephens 6/28/2014 11:00 PM UFC Fighting 2302 Ricardo Lamas* -190 vs Hacran Dias Risking $50.00 To Win $231.55